aezmvp said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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The problem for Belarus is that they have an active insurgency opposition that is itching to over throw their government. The army wants exactly zero part of this conflict due to the fact that they barely hung on to power before and really it was only due to the Russians sending in forces. I'm not sure that the opposition would be so afraid of the Russians now if Belarus had to send its fairly small army to the front.

Word very early on is that if it was a complete roll over Belarus would have entered to try and cut off retreat from Kyiv but they never got close to launching because of how poorly it went. After watching the cream of the Russians get ground down over the last 9 months I'm certain that the Belarussian army has zero desire to go right into new defensive lines that have been built over 9 months with limited to no reserves in winter.

It's true that Putin might give them no choice but the consequences would be chaotic and impossible for anyone to predict accurately.

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The posturing with Belarus has two principal benefits for Putin.

Politically, despite worldwide condemnation and sanctions, he makes the point to the world and his own people that Russia nonetheless still has friends and allies who are willing to welcome him.

Militarily, even if he cannot convince/compel Belarus to join in an actual attack, by just staging large joint military exercises and demonstrations near Kiev he ties down Ukrainian forces in the northwest that would otherwise be fighting Russia in the east and south.

Putin may not gain much in the end, but it costs him next to nothing to put on a threatening show with Belarus.

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I totally agree with all points. It would be imprudent to the point of reckless not to have troops up there if you're the Ukraine, but I probably would station token forces and a mobile reserve spread out in a few spots to be able to respond to incursions. The Ukraine could lose a war up there, but it'd be hard due to the condition of Belaurssian and Russian forces. They're so poor that I'm pretty sure your average National Guard could wipe the floor with them PDQ. The Belarussians have really shown very very little capability at all.

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74OA said:

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As Putin flounders, concerns grow about armed factions within Russia.

"Different factions within the government," he said, "will fight for the power [to rule] because evidently the competition between clans will increase … because they have a lot of weapons now. Even criminals have weapons. Chechens have weapons. Internal Ministry has weapons. The Defense Ministry has weapons. KGB the FSB have weapons. Everybody has weapons."

GUNS

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2/3 pic.twitter.com/ySwBoOEZpR

— Artoir (@ItsArtoir) December 18, 2022

JFABNRGR said:

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He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.

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Quote:

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Three people were killed, one was injured in an explosion on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline in Chuvashia

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I already have a dog said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.

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Very much like Churchill in that he is a flawed man who most would probably find distasteful in "normal" times. Absolutely the right person for this moment though.

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74OA said:

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Interesting article on the transformational effect of technology on the Ukrainian battlefield.

ALGORITHMIC WARFARE

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aezmvp said:

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Blackbeard94 said:

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I already have a dog said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.

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Very much like Churchill in that he is a flawed man who most would probably find distasteful in "normal" times. Absolutely the right person for this moment though.

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I think that the comparison is very fair. I have often thought of Churchill when reading stories about Zelensky and his leadership in this war. I have no idea what is distasteful about either man.

I think the opposite comparison of Putin to Hitler is also fair. Never goes to the front, probably drugged up paranoid hypochondriac.

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Look to be fair Churchill was an incredibly difficult man to deal with on a personal level. This led to huge problems for the man throughout his life that he was only able to overcome through staggering genius and perseverance. I'm certain that Zelensky has all kinds of issues. But as a leader of a country under dire assault, against massive odds, needing to be an effective communicator, work across many countries to solicit support from your populace, other populaces, politicians across many different ideological ranges, industries including energy, transportation, defense, technology, agriculture, etc... well he seems to be doing as good of a job as anyone you could imagine on the world stge. The Ukraine is either incredibly lucky or incredibly unlucky to have him at this time. He has rallied that country and he is unlike anything we've seen in some time, at least since the 80s when the West popped up Raegan, Thatcher, and JPII all at the same time.

That doesn't mean that everything in Ukraine is roses or pure and clean, just right guy right time.

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JFABNRGR said:

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He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.

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74OA said:

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Ukraine getting thousands more satellite terminals. Absolutely key enabler for Ukraine's high-tech battlefield advantage, as explained in the article linked just above.

STARLINK

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⚡️CNN: Zelensky already on his way to Washington.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is already on his way to Washington, two separate sources familiar with the planning told CNN.

Zelensky is reportedly preparing to visit Washington on Dec. 21 to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 21, 2022

GuatemalanAg said:

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⚡️CNN: Zelensky already on his way to Washington.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is already on his way to Washington, two separate sources familiar with the planning told CNN.

Zelensky is reportedly preparing to visit Washington on Dec. 21 to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 21, 2022

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Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Three people were killed, one was injured in an explosion on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline in Chuvashia

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/20-december-three-people-were-killed-one-was-injured-in-an

This is several hundred km east of Moscow.

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twk said:

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74OA said:

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Interesting article on the transformational effect of technology on the Ukrainian battlefield.

ALGORITHMIC WARFARE

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That's a good read, and it illustrates why Russia's only real hope for victory is to play for time, and hope that the West loses interest. So long as the Ukrainians are able to fight an asymetric war, where they are using technology to beat the Russians, there is little prospect for a Russian victory as they just don't have the resources to overwhelm Ukraine's technological advantage. Now, getting the Russians out of eastern Ukraine would be very hard work, even with a tech advantage, but a Ukrainian victory in Crimea seems to be something that is within reach, and that might actually force the Russian's to negotiate on terms that would be acceptable.

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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Blackbeard94 said:

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I already have a dog said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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He is the right man for the right job at the right time. A true lead from the front commander. I feel sorry for those who dont like or respect him.

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Very much like Churchill in that he is a flawed man who most would probably find distasteful in "normal" times. Absolutely the right person for this moment though.

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I think that the comparison is very fair. I have often thought of Churchill when reading stories about Zelensky and his leadership in this war. I have no idea what is distasteful about either man.

I think the opposite comparison of Putin to Hitler is also fair. Never goes to the front, probably drugged up paranoid hypochondriac.

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Look to be fair Churchill was an incredibly difficult man to deal with on a personal level. This led to huge problems for the man throughout his life that he was only able to overcome through staggering genius and perseverance. I'm certain that Zelensky has all kinds of issues. But as a leader of a country under dire assault, against massive odds, needing to be an effective communicator, work across many countries to solicit support from your populace, other populaces, politicians across many different ideological ranges, industries including energy, transportation, defense, technology, agriculture, etc... well he seems to be doing as good of a job as anyone you could imagine on the world stge. The Ukraine is either incredibly lucky or incredibly unlucky to have him at this time. He has rallied that country and he is unlike anything we've seen in some time, at least since the 80s when the West popped up Raegan, Thatcher, and JPII all at the same time.

That doesn't mean that everything in Ukraine is roses or pure and clean, just right guy right time.

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Additionally, Churchill spent much of his adult life in parliament and served for many years as a senior government minister during war and peace long before WWII broke out. He was much more mature and professionally prepared to be a wartime leader than is Zelensky, which only increases my respect for Volodymyr.

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Intensifying Russian pressure on #Belarus is degrading Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko’s maneuver room to avoid making concessions to the #Kremlin.

Read our latest report on #Ukraine with @criticalthreats: https://t.co/KtdcQAtC16 pic.twitter.com/f6utytB8xM

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) December 21, 2022

Jetpilot86 said:

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twk said:

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74OA said:

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Interesting article on the transformational effect of technology on the Ukrainian battlefield.

ALGORITHMIC WARFARE

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That's a good read, and it illustrates why Russia's only real hope for victory is to play for time, and hope that the West loses interest. So long as the Ukrainians are able to fight an asymetric war, where they are using technology to beat the Russians, there is little prospect for a Russian victory as they just don't have the resources to overwhelm Ukraine's technological advantage. Now, getting the Russians out of eastern Ukraine would be very hard work, even with a tech advantage, but a Ukrainian victory in Crimea seems to be something that is within reach, and that might actually force the Russian's to negotiate on terms that would be acceptable.

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Also according to Zeihlan, the Rus are only about 20% to their minimum pain threshold to consider negotiations, or 400k more need to go before they get there. The feel I'm getting from his most recent long form videos is that even if Putin goes, institutional Russian Paranoia will want to try to secure the last invasion routes to the heart of Russia. They may get beaten back, but I'm not sure they ever quit....

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