⚡️ Klitschko: Subway resumes work in Kyiv, water supply restored.

Basic utilities like water, power, and heating had been out for most of the city following Russia's missile attack on the morning of Dec. 16.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 17, 2022

Oleksandr Honcharenko, mayor of Kramatorsk, a city in Donetsk Oblast not far from the front line, shared photos of what he said was the damage caused by Russia's overnight missile strike on Kramatorsk. pic.twitter.com/6bTflB9Coo

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 17, 2022

Air-raid alert throughout the whole territory of #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/UhJuNOu1G8

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) December 17, 2022

Just kind of an overall impression this morning reading through articles on my Reddit war feed but it seems as there is a general feeling that Russia will be in retreat fairly soon.

Retreat from where? Any part in particular? As I understand it, we're still a bit away from the ground freezing and offensives to start.

Mainly fixed IFV and trucks from BC towards Zaporizhzhia region (both directions - Berdyansk and Rozhivka). An even greater amount of equipment was literally stuck in traffic jams from Mariupol to the border crossing with Russia near Novoazovsk.

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) December 17, 2022

Pretty much everywhere. I think morale is in the dumps for them. Most of them don't even know why they're there, running out of munitions, wear on their artillery making it less effective, strikes behind their lines disrupting logistics. There has been a ton of weaponry given to the Ukes. I certainly have no idea the actual number of tanks from various countries or artillery from multiple countries but there has been a ton of articles over the past several months. I think all of this despite their own losses is really adding up? Plus the support for Putin seems to be really waning more and more. Just a lot of stuff I guess. Even that long line of cars trying to get out of Crimea. Who knows?

RikkiTikkaTagem said:

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CondensedFogAggie said:

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Speaking of partnering to clear mines, someone has a bright idea for Ukraine.

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I'd call it a boomba

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Today's SITREP.

74OA said:

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Today's SITREP.

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That airburst scene was brutal

Video of a Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM strike on a group of Russian soldiers. Reportedly in Bakhmut. 168/https://t.co/A1Z8jv5WDP pic.twitter.com/YRvs2Is3nN

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 16, 2022

Ouch

betadawg1 said:

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Video of a Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM strike on a group of Russian soldiers. Reportedly in Bakhmut. 168/https://t.co/A1Z8jv5WDP pic.twitter.com/YRvs2Is3nN

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 16, 2022

Ouch

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Theres been a couple of these now. Comment on reddit said there are now so few orc tanks the Uke anti tank gunners have gotten bored, so they target INF.

In the other vid a leg from hip down gets blown off and lands perfectly on another soldier as if it was his. He wakes pats it 2-3x and realizes its not his and shakes it off. If he survived he wont forget that soon.

They make an anti-personnel HE warhead version as well and I am sure stocks of those are also floating around in Ukraine right now.

Course, if in a pinch and only have the anti-armor one.... gotta do what you gotta do and start playing whack a mole I guess. Very reminiscent of the recent Syrian war where our TOWs were used like long range snipers basically. There are like half hour compilations of that conflict's use of guided missiles against groups of soldiers.

betadawg1 said:

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Video of a Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM strike on a group of Russian soldiers. Reportedly in Bakhmut. 168/https://t.co/A1Z8jv5WDP pic.twitter.com/YRvs2Is3nN

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 16, 2022

Ouch

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I'm trying to figure out the Arabic-looking writing along the top of the screen in the first video.

EastSideAg2002 said:

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74OA said:

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Today's SITREP.

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That airburst scene was brutal

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Follow up footage of a trench attack. Several dead Russians that never stood a chance. May actually be the same one into that video. Also, fairly certain it is not the HIMARS people shredder but other submunitions. Who knows which one exactly though. It is crazy to think how many weapon systems are currently being field in Ukraine right now from both sides. From Maxim machine guns to HIMARS and everything in between.

I'll just link the video. Haven't been posting much footage since it is essentially snuff films at this point but this one conveys how effective modern munitions can be and how straight line trenches are not going to save anyone.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/zoa4aw/the_demilitarization_of_russian_cannon_fodder/

Those missiles are produced in Ukraine and some were meant for export until the invasion

Eliminatus said:

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EastSideAg2002 said:

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74OA said:

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Today's SITREP.

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That airburst scene was brutal

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Follow up footage of a trench attack. Several dead Russians that never stood a chance. May actually be the same one into that video. Also, fairly certain it is not the HIMARS people shredder but other submunitions. Who knows which one exactly though. It is crazy to think how many weapon systems are currently being field in Ukraine right now from both sides. From Maxim machine guns to HIMARS and everything in between.

I'll just link the video. Haven't been posting much footage since it is essentially snuff films at this point but this one conveys how effective modern munitions can be and how straight line trenches are not going to save anyone.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/zoa4aw/the_demilitarization_of_russian_cannon_fodder/

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I agree not HIMARS. Reddit says M971 cluster bomb shot from 120mm mortar. I cannot find vid of blast pattern but here is a link to info of which there isnt much out there.

https://defense-update.com/20050126_m971.html

Well worth watching. Focused on Bakhmut but more broadly on the return of attritional warfare in Ukraine.

Along with the recent banning of obstructionist pro-Russia parties, taming Ukraine's too-powerful oligarchs is also essential for it to root out the USSR's legacy of corruption.

REFORM
LEGISLATION

Kiev restores electricity. Moscow sends (real) clowns to the front.

UPDATE

74OA said:

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Well worth watching. Focused on Bakhmut but more broadly on the return of attritional warfare in Ukraine.

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Really enjoyed this guys content. Found him about a week ago and devoured most of his content shortly thereafter.

Nothing groundbreaking but just solid summations of the topics he picks. Well researched and well delivered information.

If yall like longform content, this guy is a good follow.

Quote:

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Ukraine is preparing additional measures to protect the Rivne NPP due to the risk of an open invasion from Belarus

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-december-ukraine-is-preparing-additional-measures-to-protect

Quote:

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State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus said that the military units of the Armed Forces are in constant combat readiness

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-december-state-secretary-of-the-security-council-of-belarus

Wouldn't you think some diplomat in the west has already warned Lukashenko that if is army crosses the boarder that Ukrainian has the means, access to intelligence, and a green-light form the west to target him personally.

SamjamAg said:

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Wouldn't you think some diplomat in the west has already warned Lukashenko that if is army crosses the boarder that Ukrainian has the means, access to intelligence, and a green-light form the west to target him personally.

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Russia probably told him something similar with the added threat of torture before death. Rock vs hard place....

He's meeting directly with Putin, may be the West's chance for the Man in Minsk to deliver the Nick Brody treatment.

More on why the ground launched small diameter bomb would be very useful to Ukraine.

GLSDB

Im amazed at the number of different weapons systems out there. Had no idea.

The problem for Belarus is that they have an active insurgency opposition that is itching to over throw their government. The army wants exactly zero part of this conflict due to the fact that they barely hung on to power before and really it was only due to the Russians sending in forces. I'm not sure that the opposition would be so afraid of the Russians now if Belarus had to send its fairly small army to the front.

Word very early on is that if it was a complete roll over Belarus would have entered to try and cut off retreat from Kyiv but they never got close to launching because of how poorly it went. After watching the cream of the Russians get ground down over the last 9 months I'm certain that the Belarussian army has zero desire to go right into new defensive lines that have been built over 9 months with limited to no reserves in winter.

It's true that Putin might give them no choice but the consequences would be chaotic and impossible for anyone to predict accurately.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html

Long read but pretty good write up on this whole thing.

74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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The problem for Belarus is that they have an active insurgency opposition that is itching to over throw their government. The army wants exactly zero part of this conflict due to the fact that they barely hung on to power before and really it was only due to the Russians sending in forces. I'm not sure that the opposition would be so afraid of the Russians now if Belarus had to send its fairly small army to the front.

Word very early on is that if it was a complete roll over Belarus would have entered to try and cut off retreat from Kyiv but they never got close to launching because of how poorly it went. After watching the cream of the Russians get ground down over the last 9 months I'm certain that the Belarussian army has zero desire to go right into new defensive lines that have been built over 9 months with limited to no reserves in winter.

It's true that Putin might give them no choice but the consequences would be chaotic and impossible for anyone to predict accurately.

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The posturing with Belarus has two principal benefits for Putin.

Politically, despite worldwide condemnation and sanctions, he makes the point to the world and his own people that Russia nonetheless still has friends and allies who are willing to welcome him.

Militarily, even if he cannot convince/compel Belarus to join in an actual attack, by just staging large joint military exercises and demonstrations near Kiev he ties down Ukrainian forces in the northwest that would otherwise be fighting Russia in the east and south.

Putin may not gain much in the end, but it costs him next to nothing to put on a threatening show with Belarus.

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I totally agree with all points. It would be imprudent to the point of reckless not to have troops up there if you're the Ukraine, but I probably would station token forces and a mobile reserve spread out in a few spots to be able to respond to incursions. The Ukraine could lose a war up there, but it'd be hard due to the condition of Belaurssian and Russian forces. They're so poor that I'm pretty sure your average National Guard could wipe the floor with them PDQ. The Belarussians have really shown very very little capability at all.

aezmvp said:

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74OA said:

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aezmvp said:

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The problem for Belarus is that they have an active insurgency opposition that is itching to over throw their government. The army wants exactly zero part of this conflict due to the fact that they barely hung on to power before and really it was only due to the Russians sending in forces. I'm not sure that the opposition would be so afraid of the Russians now if Belarus had to send its fairly small army to the front.

Word very early on is that if it was a complete roll over Belarus would have entered to try and cut off retreat from Kyiv but they never got close to launching because of how poorly it went. After watching the cream of the Russians get ground down over the last 9 months I'm certain that the Belarussian army has zero desire to go right into new defensive lines that have been built over 9 months with limited to no reserves in winter.

It's true that Putin might give them no choice but the consequences would be chaotic and impossible for anyone to predict accurately.

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The posturing with Belarus has two principal benefits for Putin.

Politically, despite worldwide condemnation and sanctions, he makes the point to the world and his own people that Russia nonetheless still has friends and allies who are willing to welcome him.

Militarily, even if he cannot convince/compel Belarus to join in an actual attack, by just staging large joint military exercises and demonstrations near Kiev he ties down Ukrainian forces in the northwest that would otherwise be fighting Russia in the east and south.

Putin may not gain much in the end, but it costs him next to nothing to put on a threatening show with Belarus.

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I totally agree with all points. It would be imprudent to the point of reckless not to have troops up there if you're the Ukraine, but I probably would station token forces and a mobile reserve spread out in a few spots to be able to respond to incursions. The Ukraine could lose a war up there, but it'd be hard due to the condition of Belaurssian and Russian forces. They're so poor that I'm pretty sure your average National Guard could wipe the floor with them PDQ. The Belarussians have really shown very very little capability at all.

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Just to add a minor point, what ever Hell Ukraine can unleash on the Belarusian troops early on would pay dividends. They should be in such terror and shock that they won't fight for Russia or step another foot into Ukraine. You can guarantee the Ukes can throw enough stuff up there to reach deep into Belarus