There is nothing similar to this conflict to ww1. Good god.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Whirligigs said:

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There is nothing similar to this conflict to ww1. Good god.

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There is a lot similar in the impact it has. Politics of the wars are completely different, but there had been widespread destruction and devastation from the untold numbers of artillery rounds being lobbed everyday. Fields are cratered, forests and treelines have been stripped bear, and towns and cities have been leveled by an artillery war. The distances are larger, there's more armor, and the weapons are more advanced, but this is very much trench warfare in a lot of places.

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here's to hoping there may be another similarity-

just like the wastage of the Imperial Czarist Army and Navy led to mutiny and revolution in 1917 so Putin will be facing each day more and more problems with the stability of his regime.

I doubt this time the Russkies set up Bolshevik councils

JB!98 said:

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Whirligigs said:

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There is nothing similar to this conflict to ww1. Good god.

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It proves that the folks living and dying under that artillery and in those muddy trenches have not changed in 100+ years. Whereas, the jackass that started this war is enjoying relative comfort for now.

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It has also proved once again that Marshal Ferdinand Foch was wrong. If Foch was right then Putin would have a dozen competent Major Generals by now

Sanctions really starting to bite Russia. Economy doing far worse than Moscow will admit. Linked article is a nice overview of the pit Putin is steadily digging for Russia.

"Figures released by the Finance Ministry last week show a key economic indicator tax revenue from the non-oil and gas sector fell 20 percent in October compared with a year earlier, while the Russian state statistics agency Rosstat reported that retail sales fell 10 percent year on year in September, and cargo turnover fell 7 percent. "All objective indicators show there is a very strong drop in economic activity," said Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister who is now a leading opposition politician in exile. "The spiral is escalating, and there is no way out of this now."

DEATH SPIRAL

Apparently Bakhmut was a mess for Russia last night.

Under the cover of the night, Russian troops tried to enter Bakhmut from the North, but a drone with thermal cameras discovered them. The Ukrainian artillery literally tore them apart. An absolute nightmare which most of them won't be able to regret. #Bakhmut #Ukraine https://t.co/TrA6HmaAaW pic.twitter.com/BXnvKztHX0

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 27, 2022

Location: "Alpha" gas station northeast of Bakhmut at 48.620540, 38.042447 https://t.co/jtiiTQbNIu @GeoConfirmed
Previous footage from the same location: https://t.co/wSUHk4athG pic.twitter.com/GEuLv5MUr8

— blinzka (@blinzka) November 27, 2022

It is quite peculiar how last night, Russian channels began pushing a psyop about an ultimatum to Ukrainians at Bakhmut. They always do these when things aren't going well. GREY ZONE laughed this claim off earlier today. pic.twitter.com/fhQXvGAd1e

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 27, 2022

sclaff said:

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Blackout in Ukraine from space, courtesy NASA.

See that blob of light on the right? That's Moscow—capital of the country that invaded and keeps bombing Ukraine.

Meanwhile, a child with asthma in Ukraine had to go to a gas stations overnight to charge her inhaler to survive. pic.twitter.com/1iybNXHOql

— UNITED24.media (@United24media) November 25, 2022

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More context:

February vs November pic.twitter.com/KXaJQ334Or

— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) November 27, 2022

Another video by that new German content creator I mentioned. Here's his daily update.

Waffledynamics said:

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Another video by that new German content creator I mentioned. Here's his daily update.

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Good info in this video. Looks like he has only 25 subscribers, so I just subbed.

Good news in Kyiv. POWER

Good accounting of life in Kiev.

Good evening. Day 5 after the latest Russian attack on Kyiv. Day 277 of the war. I am president of the Kyiv School of Economics, a former minister of economy of Ukraine, and a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. I left the US for Kyiv 4 days before the war 1/ pic.twitter.com/Ij98ik3Fcl

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 27, 2022

it certainly appears russia is on pace to lose 100K military personnel in one year assuming this keeps going. Seems to me these losses are simply to keep Ukraine occupied while they fortify their rear defenses on areas they really want to keep. Meanwhile orcs hitting 97% on civilian targets.

MK19 doing deadly accurate work. Not too often you get to see where they land but here with drone video from fire corrections. Some actually hitting individual soldiers. FYI no gore the focus is too far away.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/z6soux/ukrainian_perform_incredibly_accurate_indirect/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

I will update once it makes it to YT.

I subscribed to this channel on Youtube-

I think it is from Azerbaijan and posts a ton of short clips from the Ukrainian perspective

Do we have an "educated" estimate on total military (excluding civilians) casualties for this war so far? I know the Ukrainians have been quite (understandably) about their own KIA / wounded. Should we estimate about 100k for each side? 200k?

Everyone talks about the West's resolve to keep supplying this war. I disagree. Generally I think the West sees this as a "low cost" way of finally answering the Russian question.

I don't think the Russian civilian infrastructure attacks / pressure will be effective. It seems to create resolve in the West as well with the Ukrainians.

That leaves us with how many casualties the Ukrainians can handle. If I recall correctly, they were speaking of 1 million (source) armed forces. Through the news etc., I understand that training is ongoing. Would a good guess be that the Ukrainian military is still at 900,000 with a subset of that as effective?

US considering sending GLSDB? But not ready till spring of 2023. Hurry it up please.

Maybe. Regardless, within 5 years weapon systems like these will be common, inexpensive, and plentiful.

Reuters: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine

Quote:

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Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.

GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.

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That's really neat.

The key to unlocking further Ukrainian gains in the south is found in Dzhankoy.

LOGISTICS

Isn't this where the iranians were killed?
Also crazy how tight the opsec is on sat photos/BDA pics from the strikes here along with the big hit to the SE in Azovs'ke.

It's a slippery slope, particularly as US policy is that hostile use of any type of WMD may result in a nuclear response rather than an in-kind tit for tat.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS?

Calls for negotiation are premature and potentially undercut Ukraine's interests.

NOT NOW

Great story of how the crazy 50 cal gunner Yuri Nutting Futs on the hummers came to be in Ukraine.

good analysis of Zaporizhye and the ability of the Uke forces to go off road and attack through fields

obviously, the writer is a bit incorrect in not mentioning the rasputitsa and the muddy conditions in the late fall and early spring which would preclude this strategy

but perhaps in the middle of January the Ukes will be able to force a crossing of the Dnipro in Central Kherson Oblast and head east towards Melitopol cutting off Crimea from the rest of the Russian forces.

Nuke Plant being pilfered by Russkies

JFABNRGR said:

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Isn't this where the iranians were killed?
Also crazy how tight the opsec is on sat photos/BDA pics from the strikes here along with the big hit to the SE in Azovs'ke.

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hopefully the Ukraine High Command is working closely with Mossad and getting Israeli intel in where those Iranian advisors are moving back and forth

knock those guys out, and you knock out the ability of the Russians to launch mass drone attacks.

AgBank said:

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Do we have an "educated" estimate on total military (excluding civilians) casualties for this war so far? I know the Ukrainians have been quite (understandably) about their own KIA / wounded. Should we estimate about 100k for each side? 200k?

Everyone talks about the West's resolve to keep supplying this war. I disagree. Generally I think the West sees this as a "low cost" way of finally answering the Russian question.

I don't think the Russian civilian infrastructure attacks / pressure will be effective. It seems to create resolve in the West as well with the Ukrainians.

That leaves us with how many casualties the Ukrainians can handle. If I recall correctly, they were speaking of 1 million (source). Through the news etc., I understand that training is ongoing. Would a good guess be that the Ukrainians are still at 900,000 with a subset of that as effective?

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likely 80,000 casualties from the Russkies

and a similar combined civilian and military casualty number for the Ukes

This is one I don't think we will find out until several years after the war. Then you have to look at the Uke citizens that were displaced to Russia and what happened to them. Seeing as Russia has been attacking civilian structures about the same as military it does not seem like it will be a low number.

benchmark said:

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Maybe. Regardless, within 5 years weapon systems like these will be common, inexpensive, and plentiful.

Reuters: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine

Quote:

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Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.

GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.

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just need to make an amphibious crossing of the Dnipro and move down the Kherson oblast 20 miles towards the Kerch isthmus

that should put the Kerch Bridge in range-

all the Ukes need to do is take out that bridge permanently and the Russkies are going to be in heap big trouble every place west of Melitopol

LMCane said:

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benchmark said:

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Maybe. Regardless, within 5 years weapon systems like these will be common, inexpensive, and plentiful.

Reuters: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine

Quote:

---

Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.

GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.

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just need to make an amphibious crossing of the Dnipro and move down the Kherson oblast 20 miles towards the Kerch isthmus

that should put the Kerch Bridge in range-

all the Ukes need to do is take out that bridge permanently and the Russkies are going to be in heap big trouble every place west of Melitopol

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More details: GLSDB

Today's SITREP.