***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,593,166 Views | 47826 Replies | Last: 33 min ago by B-1 83
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1596819562443726848.html

Rossticus
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If Russia is blaming Poland then it was almost certainly Russia. Probably a message to Luka.

TheHulkster
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Get sicker soon, s-heads.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Waffledynamics
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Another short, sweet, and to the point update by our German fellow.
Waffledynamics
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Key Takeaways
  • The Russian-claimed capture of several small villages around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 does not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.
  • Recent Russian force deployments to Belarus in November 2022 are likely part of a Russian effort to augment Russian training capacity and conduct an information operation.
  • Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) decision to place severe customs limits on the import of dual-use goods, indicating a continued and pervasive discontent with the Russian MoD's conduct of the war in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces are likely preparing to launch a new wave of missile strikes across Ukraine in the coming week, but such preparations are likely intended to sustain the recent pace of strikes rather than increase it.
  • Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive west of Kreminna.
  • Russian forces made incremental gains south of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued to strengthen fortified positions and establish security measures in eastern Kherson Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and along critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continue to face issues with adequate training and equipment and challenges with morale and discipline as Russian military failures have significant domestic social impacts.
  • Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of educational systems in occupied Ukraine into the Russian system.
Waffledynamics
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Rossticus
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Russia is definitely all in on the "create the largest humanitarian crisis possible without nuking or gassing them and they'll give us what we want" strategy.
txags92
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Rossticus said:

Russia is definitely all in on the "create the largest humanitarian crisis possible without nuking or gassing them and they'll give us what we want" strategy.
I'd rather see us take the gloves off and give the Ukrainians the weapons necessary to give them what they have coming to them. Screw all this short range crap. If Iran can sell Russia medium range ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian civilians, what right does Russia have to object to us selling the same to the Ukrainians and letting them wipe out a few airbases in Russia where these bombers are taking off from.
AlaskanAg99
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I think that's where this is going. If Russia is buying ballistic missiles...then in-kind can be provided.

Striking INTO Russia is the only option. RU will spin this as an escalation and invasion....but the only people buying it will be RUians. A complete naval blockade is the only option. Any ship going into any RU port needs to be stopped for a Coast Guard inspection. If it's not land movement, it's completely stopped.

Now, this will have issues with grain/food...but that's a price to pay.
Waffledynamics
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Well, perhaps some of the comparisons to World War 1 aren't so out of touch after all if even they compare themselves to it.

MouthBQ98
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I'm frankly surprised Ukraine hasn't tried to infiltrate special forces deep into Russia to attack their strategic air bases with drones and dropped munitions from the back of a van or something. After all, most Ukrainians speak Russian, some as their primary language.

A few drones with dropped mortar bombs would wipe out parked aircraft unless the base has some sort of jamming system operating continuously. Or a light mortar that could be put on target by a drone.
aezmvp
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MouthBQ98 said:

I'm frankly surprised Ukraine hasn't tried to infiltrate special forces deep into Russia to attack their strategic air bases with drones and dropped munitions from the back of a van or something. After all, most Ukrainians speak Russian, some as their primary language.

A few drones with dropped mortar bombs would wipe out parked aircraft unless the base has some sort of jamming system operating continuously. Or a light mortar that could be put on target by a drone.
High risk against targets that aren't really making a huge battlefield impact. If you lose those people they don't come back and they're not easy to replace. I know the same can be said of those planes but if you're going to have those people deep in Russia you'd want them to be able to take out real infrastructure or manufacturing capabilities and get away.
LMCane
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interesting that the Ukes don't seem to be shifting all the units from the capture of Kherson to the Bakhmut sector..

trip
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aezmvp said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I'm frankly surprised Ukraine hasn't tried to infiltrate special forces deep into Russia to attack their strategic air bases with drones and dropped munitions from the back of a van or something. After all, most Ukrainians speak Russian, some as their primary language.

A few drones with dropped mortar bombs would wipe out parked aircraft unless the base has some sort of jamming system operating continuously. Or a light mortar that could be put on target by a drone.
High risk against targets that aren't really making a huge battlefield impact. If you lose those people they don't come back and they're not easy to replace. I know the same can be said of those planes but if you're going to have those people deep in Russia you'd want them to be able to take out real infrastructure or manufacturing capabilities and get away.
Seems like the roads and train rails in southern Ukraine would be a good objective.
MouthBQ98
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I'm thinking more of stopping the air launched cruise missile attacks on the power grid.
LMCane
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anyone know the range of the French LRU? Good to see them stepping up and supporting the UFA. At this stage, why would any west european country NOT send every piece of equipment they have to Ukraine?

the only enemy of Belgium and Lichtenstein and Spain and Sweden/Norway/Italy et al is RUSSIA

might as well destroy the Russian military now when it is Ukraine doing the fighting and the dying, then let Moscow rearm and refit and then YOUR own citizens have to be the ones fighting!

aezmvp
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MouthBQ98 said:

I'm thinking more of stopping the air launched cruise missile attacks on the power grid.
Got that but it's not hard to move those launch points and other stuff around for the Russians. Plus you can seriously hit the Russian grid with other attacks that are delayed and look like accidents.
B-1 83
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aezmvp said:

MouthBQ98 said:

I'm thinking more of stopping the air launched cruise missile attacks on the power grid.
Got that but it's not hard to move those launch points and other stuff around for the Russians. Plus you can seriously hit the Russian grid with other attacks that are delayed and look like accidents.
To a degree, that's why those bases currently hosting Blackjacks and Backfires need to be hit hard. Bombers lined up like that picture are very soft targets and easy to damage beyond Russia's repair capabilities.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Phatbob
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Waffledynamics said:

Well, perhaps some of the comparisons to World War 1 aren't so out of touch after all if even they compare themselves to it.


I think RU may just see this as a completely viable strategy. They get to stop up Uke advancement while at the same time getting rid of "undesirables". It's a feature, not a bug.
74OA
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In addition to a dearth of infantry in BTGs and a longstanding reluctance to issue mission orders and give subordinates the authority to execute them, I suspect Russia does not have robust, secure C3I links to make a distributed operational concept work.

74OA
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Interesting. First I've seen of rubber "hedgehog" armor. It appears to work.

INNOVATIVE
lb3
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LMCane
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lb3 said:


Uh, why is an article from nearly a month ago being posted? yeah, we all know the Russkies sucked around Kherson 30 days ago.

Doesn't have much to do with the current situation around Bakhmut, Svatove, north of Melitopol, Pavlivka, etc etc.
Not a Bot
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The base is about 1000km outside of the border. The bombers fly within about 200 km or so of the border to launch standoff missiles. No one currently aligned with Ukraine has medium range ballistic missiles capable of striking those bases. No one aligned with Ukraine is going to give them the very long range stand off missiles that could potentially reach those bases. The only thing that's going to knock those planes and bases out of commission is going to be internal sabotage or deep, special operations missions.
Waffledynamics
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New daily video. Of interest, he discusses how AI helps fight the threat of cruise missiles.

He also explains some of the alleged Russian captures south of Bakhmut while the following video of Bakhmut plays.



Also, I really like that he sources everything in the video description, and I wish sometimes that Denys Davydov and Speak the Truth would do this.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Blackout in Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk region of Russia as result of shelling at electrical power infrastructure
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/29-november-blackout-in-sudzha-and-korenevo-districts-of

Turnabout is fair play, Russia.
Waffledynamics
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You won't do ****, you pathetic has-beens.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.

Plus ARTILLERY.
Smeghead4761
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txags92 said:

Rossticus said:

Russia is definitely all in on the "create the largest humanitarian crisis possible without nuking or gassing them and they'll give us what we want" strategy.
I'd rather see us take the gloves off and give the Ukrainians the weapons necessary to give them what they have coming to them. Screw all this short range crap. If Iran can sell Russia medium range ballistic missiles to attack Ukrainian civilians, what right does Russia have to object to us selling the same to the Ukrainians and letting them wipe out a few airbases in Russia where these bombers are taking off from.
Unless we're going to hand over B-1s, B-52s, or F-15Es, we don't really have anything beyond relatively short range weapons that the Ukrainians can use. The U.S. scrapped all of our Pershing IIs and ground launched Tomahawks to comply with the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty signed during the Reagan administration.

We withdrew from the treaty in 2018 due to non-compliance by Russia, but we have not fielded any land based weapons of that range since then.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Blinken: We are creating a coordinated mission to supply Ukraine with energy, infrastructure equipment, and military aid


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/30-november-blinken-we-are-creating-a-coordinated-mission
sclaff
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