***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,800,540 Views | 48267 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by txags92
CondensedFogAggie
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3:20a, 10/23/22
Pretty stunning video, Georgians rock, and the reason why I'm wary of Russia's obsolete tanks.

Hopefully the Germans will start allowing transfers of Leopards soon.

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CondensedFogAggie
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3:33a, 10/23/22



Rest in peace.
Rest in peace.
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CondensedFogAggie
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3:35a, 10/23/22

Hate to say it, but the barrages by the terrorist state of Russia is doing something. Hopefully Ukraine gets more air defenses and fixes its infrastructure soon.
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RONA Ag
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In reply to Rossticus • 6:19a, 10/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Hungary caved. One down, one to go.



This really cannot be understated about how huge this is. Finland and Sweden probably instantly become top 5 in Nato in terms of military capabilities and technologically that have some incredible weaponry
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Ulysses90
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In reply to agent-maroon • 6:20a, 10/23/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
Maybe if he was career military or a tough old farmer type. But he had just received his free senior bus ticket status. Doesn't exactly scream survivor bad ass to me. But maybe I'm wrong. That did happen once when I was in my thirties IIRC.


Also recall that before this war started the average life expectancy in Russia was 59 years old (thank you vodka). This level of desperation is like the Nazi Volkssturm of 1945.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm

It's even more bizarre because they aren't conscripting the sick, laim, and lazy to defend home turf against invaders; they are the invaders but...they are being sent to a defestive line in an occupied country. Putin is compelling Russia to eat itself.

The thumb rule of a 3:1 force ratio of attackers to defenders can probably be reduced to 1:1 if the Ukrainians are facing Russian conscripts of this quality.
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JFABNRGR
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6:43a, 10/23/22
AG
Rare 1st person POV su-25 pilot ejecting after being shotdown.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ybe7ok/first_person_pov_of_a_russian_su25_getting_shot/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 74OA • 7:00a, 10/23/22
AG
74OA said:
Waffledynamics said:
Sweet damn.

Wow! In the first few seconds of the clip an incoming round hits the breech cover on the tank commander's machine gun. If it hadn't been up for some reason he would have been hit in the face.


Thats not all either. Its being stated the towed artillery was a russian convoy they ran right into. This makes a bit of sense because its a real bad day if your tank is in heavy action at the same line of your artillery towed or not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yb1th2/russian_towed_artillery_convoy_runs_straight_into/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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clobby
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7:52a, 10/23/22
AG
Interesting video of the guys Russia is drafting. You can tell moral is already low before they even get sent out. Wait until its freezing and you are stuck in a field getting shot at.

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Waffledynamics
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7:58a, 10/23/22
AG
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benchmark
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9:14a, 10/23/22
AG

Thread unroll
Quote:
I'm pretty sure that Russians have already made the decision to withdraw from the Western bank of the Dnipro River. One element for achieving that is deception. The enemy must not know that withdrawal is imminent. Many Russians claimed that they will fight. (they won't) /1

Another critical element is having a capable rear guard. The withdrawing force must be covered for the duration of that process. This rear guard must be committed, agile and equipped with fast vehicles when they have to withdraw. Russia will likely just sacrifice conscripts. /2

The most important element, however, is logistics and the discipline to execute such a complicated objective. Russia has proven in this war that it lacks both of this, on an epic level. Especially considering that the Dnipro River needs to be crossed complicates it even more. /3

Furthermore, we are looking into 2 smaller theaters of war. The area West on the Inhulets River and, secondly, the area between Inhulets and Dnipro rivers. If one side falls apart to soon it will expose the other one. I see the area East of Inhulets weaker but that can change./4

To improve the Russian odds, it is possible that Russian air force will be seen increasingly in that area. The movement of S-400 (and their recent destruction) could be another indicator that Russians need to concentrate and risk high value assets. Keep an eye on them. /5

With the Kerch Bridge out of action and Zaporizhzhia Oblast being under pressure by AFU as well I do not expect much reinforcements for Russian forces. Conscripts as mentioned above will likely be used as cannon fodder to secure the withdrawal. /6

Having said that all, we should not forget that this comes even under the best conditions. The Ukrainians have a plethora of methods to thwart all of those points and they are fully aware of what Russians are doing, thanks to intelligence, no matter what they claim. /7

We should also not forget that Kherson City has large crowds which do not want to be Russians. Shortly after the occupation they made themselves heard. The question, however, is how many are in the city. This can be both good or bad. Good that they help... /8

... but also bad because they can be abused as human shields. The claim that Russia has started "evacuating" civilians can be projected on collaborators, at best, which are anyway just a small fraction. /9

We will see soon what that all means. The situation for Russians has reached another low point and we have even seen that sometimes that they actually admit it. The Russian regime is incapable of stopping the Ukrainian army and will continue using terrorist methods. /10
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:39a, 10/23/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


Soe as much confusion, chaos and attempt to disrupt the world. Make it as difficult as possible to continue to support Ukraine.

I wouldn't doubt that anti satellite missiles will also be used. Europe is going to be incredibly screwed as communication and energy is starved from it.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:59a, 10/23/22
AG
The cables can be re spliced but it is a giant pain in the ass. Each end must be lifted and a new section of fiber with a special sealed case must be added after the damaged area is cut clean. It adds a potential little bit of optical loss if the splices aren't really high quality, but otherwise service can be restored.

The damage is easily located by testing from either end.
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AgLA06
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 10:09a, 10/23/22
AG
Or they can just take care of the problem.

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia "loses" a submarine sometime soon.
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GAC06
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10:20a, 10/23/22
AG
The Russian sub Belgorod put to sea shortly before the Nordstream incident, and now this right? It's supposed to be a mothership for smaller subs capable of doing this kind of stuff
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aggiehawg
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:21a, 10/23/22
AG
GAC06 said:
The Russian sub Belgorod put to sea shortly before the Nordstream incident, and now this right? It's supposed to be a mothership for smaller subs capable of doing this kind of stuff
My first thought as well.
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Waffledynamics
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10:26a, 10/23/22
AG


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aggiehawg
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:36a, 10/23/22
AG
Question: What about Starlink? They won't be completely cut off, correct? Is there a voice over internet option?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:15a, 10/23/22
AG
I don't know enough about how Starlink functions, but if I understand right, you have to have equipment to use it. Getting it to the partisans would mean Russia would get it eventually, too.
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74OA
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:23a, 10/23/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
Or they can just take care of the problem.

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia "loses" a submarine sometime soon.
IIRC, the Russian navy only has one or two subs designed for cable tapping, sabotage and other covert deep-sea tasks.

If we can put a tail on every Russian boomer, then surely we can shadow these subs, too.
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spud1910
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In reply to agent-maroon • 12:07p, 10/23/22
AG
agent-maroon said:
Maybe if he was career military or a tough old farmer type. But he had just received his free senior bus ticket status. Doesn't exactly scream survivor bad ass to me. But maybe I'm wrong. That did happen once when I was in my thirties IIRC.
Yeah, a degree in nutrition and an MBA. Currently working in oil and gas.
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Rossticus
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12:12p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:14p, 10/23/22




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GAC06
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In reply to 74OA • 12:16p, 10/23/22
AG
74OA said:
AgLA06 said:
Or they can just take care of the problem.

I wouldn't be surprised if Russia "loses" a submarine sometime soon.
IIRC, the Russian navy only has one or two subs designed for cable tapping, sabotage and other covert deep-sea tasks.

If we can put a tail on every Russian boomer, then surely we can shadow these subs, too.


Belgorod is one such sub and I believe currently the only one capable of using the nuclear drone torpedo, which should already put it on comparable priority to a boomer I would think
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Rossticus
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12:20p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:25p, 10/23/22
Dingus apparently stepped on a Russian petal mine.

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Rossticus
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12:27p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:28p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:35p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:37p, 10/23/22
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Rossticus
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12:39p, 10/23/22

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DCPD158
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:50p, 10/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:

Ukraine will detonate a dirty bomb in a major Russian city in retaliation to any type of nuke used in Ukraine. Bank on it
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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B-1 83
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:51p, 10/23/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I see they grow alfalfa in Ukraine.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Rossticus
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12:56p, 10/23/22
And, of course they did.

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Rossticus
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In reply to DCPD158 • 1:01p, 10/23/22
DCPD158 said:
Rossticus said:

Ukraine will detonate a dirty bomb in a major Russian city in retaliation to any type of nuke used in Ukraine. Bank on it


The claim he seems to be making right now though, based on the reports, is that Ukraine will make a first strike. Per reports, he's presented no supporting intelligence to back up this claim.

And if Russia detonated a nuke in Ukraine, Ukraine wouldn't need to do anything. They could just sit back and watch us, UK, Poland, etc finish Russia off in Ukraine. Because that's what would happen.
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Rossticus
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1:03p, 10/23/22
Really seems like Russia is setting something up.

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