NOTE: RU has accelerated evacuation of dependents and collaborators from Kherson, in apparent anticipation of a UKR offensive directed against the city. Reportage is limited to information disclosed this morning by the UKR General Staff. Updates will follow.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 19, 2022

There are Russians in the forests outside of Kharkiv?

Rossticus said:

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Interesting…

"If this has indeed been shared in Russian Telegram channels, the shelling of a British plane has been a massive hushed escalation. In any case, last week's escort is correct."

Als dit inderdaad in Russische Telegramkanalen is gedeeld, is de beschieting van een Brits vliegtuig een gigantische stilgehouden escalatie geweest. De escorte van afgelopen week klopt in ieder geval.https://t.co/7t8G77PjcF

— Johann de Graaf (@JCdeGraaf) October 19, 2022

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This is of note - Russians took a shot at a RAF flight a few weeks ago over the Black Sea. I would assume it wasn't taken down - not sure if the shot was a warning (out of range) or the defensive systems won the "fight".
I take it our flights in the area haven't ceased, and if so, are they now escorted?

Interesting development. What would be the odds that this is related to cyber warfare vs some kind of physical attacks somewhere, or even just something else?

Quote:

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Substation turned off the grid in Belgorod, due to power overload, - according to authorities

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/19-october-substation-turned-off-the-grid-in-belgorod-due

Thanks for the cleanup mods, that was quick

#Ukraine: You thought the T-62 parade was over? Wrong: another T-62MV and T-62M were captured by Ukrainian forces in #Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/sL5aQABPdb

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 19, 2022

#Ukraine: Yet another Russian far from the state of the art T-62M tank was captured by the Ukrainian army in #Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/2vEns6rZcD

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 19, 2022

Ag In Ok said:

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There are Russians in the forests outside of Kharkiv?

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If there are it sounds like just about all they're doing at this point is camping poorly.

Russian channels are proudly showing off the scale of new defensives lines that have been prepared by Wagner in occupied Donbas.

They don't seem to have noticed it appears to be to defending mostly pre Feb 24th positions.

Would seem they don't expect to hold Northern Luhansk. pic.twitter.com/49BLnkhAv0

— Artoir (@ItsArtoir) October 19, 2022

Given that World War III is a totally undesirable outcome, how much latitude do we give these instances? Mistakes are inevitable, even fatal mistakes, and we can't let every stray bullet that might hit a NATO ally be an excuse for escalation, but we also can't let Russia start attacking NATO assets unprovoked without some kind of response.

I'd guess that as long as nobody dies we probably err on the side of caution. And even then, if at all possible, we'd try to sweep it under the rug as long as it were a one-off and didn't become a trend.

And tonight's special, ladies and gentlemen, will be crow. All you can eat.

There is only one step from “Viva Putin” to “Putin Khuilo”: the owner of a Parisian restaurant apologized to the Ukrainians for his act https://t.co/RYLc6gtxU1 pic.twitter.com/IgxvHe94gI

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 19, 2022

Good Oryx write up on the context of Israel's position.

Vetoing Victory - Israel Is Blocking Military Aid To Ukraine - “For Ukraine, the inability to procure Israeli drones while at the same time being on the receiving end of munitions dropped by Israeli-designed drones must be an infuriating state of affairs.” https://t.co/P9pie8g7vC

— АЖР П-Б (@ARNAUDJRPB) October 19, 2022

I believe they are talking about the Oblast, not city.

I'd like to get more corroboration on that update for the Kherson front. I'm not seeing too much in the way of panic by the Russians like we saw in the Kharkiv offensive, though it may be intentionally muted/I'm just not seeing it.

The more smoke we see, the more fire there most likely is.

I believe this was the one hit by Ukraine and the videos showed the fire. Belogord is in range and Ukraine has been hitting strategic targets all week.

Just as likely it's different Russian factions fighting over who gets to retreat with plundered goods and who has to stay and fight.

1/5 On the 5th of July I was at the zero line with 95th brigade and National Guard in the monastery of Krasnopillia between Slovjansk and Izjum few hundred meters from Russian positions and got shelled constantly. When Russians took a break we ran back to our vehicle. PHOTOS👇 pic.twitter.com/2ZaTZZMxBk

— Harri_EST🇪🇪🇺🇦 (@Harri_Est) October 19, 2022

3/5 The mortar shelling was pretty much none stop and one mortar landed close to us, but did not explode and 10 minutes after that we decided to run to the vehicle! pic.twitter.com/RuvPQV4bf1

— Harri_EST🇪🇪🇺🇦 (@Harri_Est) October 19, 2022

5/5 pic.twitter.com/RCEksgokIt

— Harri_EST🇪🇪🇺🇦 (@Harri_Est) October 19, 2022

“They are setting the narrative before a planned provocation, in which they will blame Ukraine for the bombing of the city of Kherson or civilians.. This means that something will happen for which they will blame Ukraine.” Impt warning from Ukr Def Min.
https://t.co/AGR52SFWS6

— Catherine Belton (@CatherineBelton) October 19, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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I believe this was the one hit by Ukraine and the videos showed the fire. Belogord is in range and Ukraine has been hitting strategic targets all week.

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That would cause a power overload? Can you or someone else "explain like I'm 5"?

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry responds to China: it is incorrect to pretend that you do not know about drone attacks on Kyivhttps://t.co/vPoyrYgBDF pic.twitter.com/Y1qzH29gGV

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) October 19, 2022

Waffledynamics said:

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I'd like to get more corroboration on that update for the Kherson front. I'm not seeing too much in the way of panic by the Russians like we saw in the Kharkiv offensive, though it may be intentionally muted/I'm just not seeing it.

The more smoke we see, the more fire there most likely is.

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We will probably not see what we saw in Kharkiv again for awhile. The Kharkiv front was extremely undermanned and the Russians didn't act on the Ukrainian forces massing there, and when the offensive started they failed to reinforce until it was way too late.

In Kherson the Russians have many troops that are regular military, not just separatist conscripts. They also have been preparing their logistics and supplies since early summer when rumblings began of an offensive there. If Ukraine retakes the right bank of Kherson it either will be slow bloody fighting, or the Russians will execute a tactical fighting retreat. It won't be like Kharkiv

Anyone have any updates on the Kerch bridge? If any of it was fixed by now Putin would be screaming victory from the rooftops already.

But since he hasn't I'm assuming it's still a work in process, and this post is just a reminder that somebody(TM)(wink wink) bombed Russia's pride and joy quite successfully.

Last I saw there were still cranes there.

They're just making **** up at this point. Really letting it go. Zero filters between brain and mouth, with logic lost a long time ago.

Today on Russian TV:

Ukraine has a nuclear bomb primed in Mykolaiv which it will detonate and then blame on Russia so that the US has a justification for getting directly involved in the war and launching missiles on Russia

Got all of that? 🤪 pic.twitter.com/Zfvln18j6P

— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) October 19, 2022

Russia makes up outlandish reasons why their stuff malfunctions from Ukrainian explosions. Smoking accidents, power overload, etc. Anything other than admitting Ukrain destroyed it.

⚡️Ukraine's military strikes Russian air defense in south.

Ukraine's Armed Forces conducted six strikes on Russian Buk, Tor, and Pantsir surface-to-air missile systems in Ukraine's south, the Southern Operational Command reported on Oct. 19.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 19, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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Russia makes up outlandish reasons why their stuff malfunctions from Ukrainian explosions. Smoking accidents, power overload, etc. Anything other than admitting Ukrain destroyed it.

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This is a fair thing that I didn't consider for some reason.

I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

twk said:

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I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

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Russians will be blowing dams and bridges as soon as Ukraine gets the upper hand. They've already blamed Ukraine for planning to do it so as far as I'm concerned they've just plain telegraphed it plain as day.

Rossticus said:

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twk said:

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I tend to think that the fight in the Kherson region will be between the city and the dam up river. The Antonov bridge is outside Kherson on that side of town, and the dam is the other permanent bridge. If they can take control of that area, I think the Russians would be forced to withdraw from the city. If the Ukrainians were able to cross the river in that area, it would be cataclysmic for the Russians.

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Russians will be blowing dams and bridges as soon as Ukraine gets the upper hand. They've already blamed Ukraine for planning to do it so as far as I'm concerned they've just plain telegraphed it plain as day.

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They will not blow that dam unless they give up on their goal of permanently holding Crimea. That reservoir feeds a canal that runs into Crimea almost all the way to the Kerch Strait. It is key to the viability of much of Ukraine, as the Russians found to their cost when they stopped their 2014 operation at the Isthmus of Perekop, allowing Ukraine to dam the canal short of the occupation line and deprive Crimea of this water.

CondensedFogAggie said:

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Counter-battery fire by Ukrainian HIMARS, destroying a Russian D-30 howitzer along with its ammunition in Kherson Oblast.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/qhm9JBhmCo

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) October 19, 2022

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Doesn't the fact that a drone was recording this imply that it wasn't true counter battery fire?

Don't need a reservoir to feed a canal. Pumps can do this.

lb3 said:

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Don't need a reservoir to feed a canal. Pumps can do this.

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That's a pretty large canal. I'm not sure if the flow of that river would be sufficient for pumps to reliably feed that canal at the level that they need. It would take of a pump set up.