Poot said:

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Not to derail the thread… but could you enlighten a novice on the misconception where it comes to cruise/ballistic?

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Different flight paths. The oversimplified version is a cruise missile is powered and guided the whole flight where a ballistic missile is lobbed like a projectile on a "ballistic" trajectory. Generally only powered and guided for parts of its flight path.

Edit: dang, too slow

Poot said:

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Not to derail the thread… but could you enlighten a novice on the misconception where it comes to cruise/ballistic?

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By definition, a cruise missile is under power all of or the majority of the flight to target. Flight paths tend to be flat and close to the earth. "Terrain hugging".

A ballistic missile is a weapon that is launched via a rocket motor which cuts out soon after and then it it continues on inertia and gravity alone on a ballistic path to the target. Hence the name and is akin to a giant arc.

It's not even a magazine vs clip argument. We all still know what is being referred to. These are fundamentally different weapon systems. Jet plane vs glider argument. Even the optimal ways to counter will have to be drastically different though some overlap is seen with the highest performing SAMs. Stopping a plane vs stopping a bullet essentially.

Look up V1 and V2 weapons from world war 2 if you want historical context in the differences.

ETA: Ha. Damn. Y'all are fast. Typing on a phone sucks at times.

Poot said:

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Not to derail the thread… but could you enlighten a novice on the misconception where it comes to cruise/ballistic?

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Think airplane/drone (cruise) vs rocket (ballistic).

(Damn it I was slow also!) Good explanations.

⚡️ General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The Ukrainian Defense Forces units repelled the attacks of the Russians in the areas of Ohirtseve and Dvorichna of the Kharkiv region; Bilohorivka of the Luhansk region; pic.twitter.com/PbY9vqBklU

— FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) October 19, 2022

AgLA06 said:

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GAC06 said:

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Backfilling ordnance makes sense but as far as AMRAAM and harpoon (even counting NASAMS against AMRAAM) we have provided hundreds not tens of thousands

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Hence, why I said I think we are being proactive and gearing up for war. Those are strike weapons like the first days of the gulf war to take out enemy air force and navy.

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On the topic of 20,000 AMRAAM: we produced "more than 14,000" as of 2008 for the Air Force, Navy, Marines, and many allied countries. This proposition, if real, would be to build more AMRAAM than we ever did over the last thirty years it's been in service

Counter-battery fire by Ukrainian HIMARS, destroying a Russian D-30 howitzer along with its ammunition in Kherson Oblast.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/qhm9JBhmCo

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) October 19, 2022

#Mobilization: 24-year old woman from #Vietnam has been conscripted in #Moscow to die in Ukraine. She received Russian citizenship 2 years ago. Her name is Nguyen Vi Hoang Anh. pic.twitter.com/tcowtSaxke

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) October 14, 2022

https://apnews.com/article/b48b555f547ff6a1a59b1cad17d0e269

Putin declares martial law in annexed portions of Ukraine

Thanks for the crash course!

CondensedFogAggie said:

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Counter-battery fire by Ukrainian HIMARS, destroying a Russian D-30 howitzer along with its ammunition in Kherson Oblast.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/qhm9JBhmCo

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) October 19, 2022

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Towed guns are much more vulnerable to counterbattery fire than SP guns in general, but the D-30 even more so. It's trails actually get staked into the ground before it can fire.

Odd things I remember from the old Twilight: 2000 role playing game. And also seeing the ANA training with them.

As long as the war is asymmetric in that Ukrainian infrastructure is being ruined while Russia is largely untouched, Russia will have a large economic advantage and therefore a major incentive to keep fighting.

Ukraine can't expand the war in this way to affect Russia's ability to fight it because they may lose substantial foreign support, which is the one major advantage they do have.

The fight really resolves to the Russian perception of their own will and industrial and manpower ability to outlast the losses inflicted by western military support. If the west sustains, Russia can't win. If the west grows tired, Russia eventually will grind Ukraine down by wrecking its economy and infrastructure.

MouthBQ98 said:

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As long as the war is asymmetric in that Ukrainian infrastructure is being ruined while Russia is largely untouched, Russia will have a large economic advantage and therefore a major incentive to keep fighting.

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Except its not Ukraine's infrastructure that is supporting their war effort.

Yes, it's horrific that Ukraine will probably be leveled in some way if this drags on for years but this is all about the West's will to fight Russia and I don't see us going away when presented with a golden opportunity to bleed our major nemesis dry while not losing a single soldier.

EDIT: and I see after reading the rest of your post you are basically saying the same thing.

Rossticus said:

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If Russia pulls its forces from the other side of the Dnipro it will:
1) Be an impressive and hard fought victory for Ukraine
2) Make it less likely we'll Russian forces collapse in the near term because they'll have more defensible lines.

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 18, 2022

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totally disagree with point 2 above!

it actually makes is MORE likely the Russian forces will suffer further defeats for at least a few reasons:

1) another morale destroying retreat for the Russian military;

2) if those 20,000 Russians stayed north of the Dnipro, they could likely hold on in a battle of attrition with the UFA through the winter, keeping UFA forces pinned in the Kherson area and involved in brutal city urban fighting.

3)Now the Ukes will be able to move those forces to the new offensive on the Melitopol/Mariupol line (this is my prognosis for the next major attack sometime in the next half year)

Private PoopyPants said:

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#Israel will still help Ukraine, but not with weapons

"We can help #Ukraine with smart missile attack warning systems, like we have, and not with weapons," Defense Minister Gantz explained. pic.twitter.com/viuyodLAql

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 19, 2022

Their concern is Iran gating intelligence about the exact capabilities of their systems.

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I would imagine they are also concerned with Putin helping Iran further gain nuclear weapons in the next year.

benchmark said:

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Outstanding ISW essay on Putin and Russia ... an absolute must read IMO.

ISW: PUTIN ON TRACK TO DISAPPOINT MULTIPLE COMPETING FACTIONS IN RUSSIA

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The desire for a powerful Russia that is based on control of Ukraine extends beyond Putin. This is the pillar around which Putin is crystallizing the Russian system. His errors may take him down in the process - only for others with more effective approaches to carry the mantle forward. This makes the question of the Russian ability to produce heavy and advanced weapons one of the most essential dynamics of the next few years. Efforts to degrade Russia's military-industrial complex should be a priority for the West and Ukraine.

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Thanks for post this. That was an excellent article to read.

LMCane said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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#Israel will still help Ukraine, but not with weapons

"We can help #Ukraine with smart missile attack warning systems, like we have, and not with weapons," Defense Minister Gantz explained. pic.twitter.com/viuyodLAql

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 19, 2022

Their concern is Iran gating intelligence about the exact capabilities of their systems.

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I would imagine they are also concerned with Putin helping Iran further gain nuclear weapons in the next year.

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Whether that does or doesn't happen has nothing to do with Israel. Iran isn't doing this out of the goodness of their heart and Russia has a history of losing important items.

And apparently getting old T-72's from Belarus

AgLA06 said:

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Agreed. Sounds like they sold most off over the years either through foreign military sales or corruption. Not to mention didn't maintain most of them out of incompetence or corruption.

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There's no way they store all those things indoors and Russia can't be a very friendly place to let machinery sit outdoors, un or undermaintained for decades unless they were transported to drier regions. I can't imagine the kind of overhaul something that sat since the fall of the Soviet Union would need to be brought back into service.

There was some good discussion about this when this all kicked off in February.

The USA is fortunate because we have arid desert to mothball our equipment. Sand is abrasive and can strip the paint, but moisture and metal is much, much worse. Like Russia's cold and wet climate.

Then again it doesn't really matter if corrupt officers stripped them for parts that they sold to fund their mistress or yacht. And you don't have enough parts for the tanks you already have active. There's lots of stories of Russian tank companies starting with a full company of tanks and only making it to the front lines with a fraction of those. And those that do make it often don't have a full crew or fully functioning tank. Now imagine they have to pull a 7 decade old rust seized tank from a bog that is mysteriously missing radio, sighting, and other electronic equipment. And the engineers who designed it and all trained soldiers are in a nursing home or dead.

Quote:

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Russian tech firms have noticed something strange about shipments of chips they've been receiving from Chinese manufacturers. According to a story in Kommersant, a Russian daily newspaper devoted to politics and business, translated and reported by The Register, up to 40% of the Chinese chips are turning out to be defective.

This represents a 1,900% increase in the failure rate, and while we couldn't possibly suggest the two things are linked, Kommersant notes that before the invasion of Ukraine, the dud rate stood at 2%. The newspaper, which is privately owned by pro-Putin billionaire Alisher Usmanov (above) and released its first issue in January 1990, quotes an anonymous source in its story, laying the blame on both the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic sanctions more recently imposed on Russia for hurting its supply chains and forcing it to import gray-market semiconductors in the first place.

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https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-microchips-40-percent-failure-for-russia

Agreed!

Most of y'all know the old soviet axiom of over building every military item and bleeding the opposition to death with excess units, whether it was artillery, tanks, or rifles.

While economics doesn't allow them to over build every piece of equipment anymore, I'm sure Russia still heeds "the old ways" when they can.

I would normally agree with y'all about drawing out the war until Ukraine can't produce war anymore, but I'm not sure Russia's economy can sustain a war footing very long either. Moscow just mobilized most of the men (except for those chosen few who are ardent supporters of Putin), which leaves women, children, and a few men, to operate jobs previously held by mobilized men. Over a 6 to 9 month period, Russia's economy is going to be severely hurt, which is saying something because it's not a strong going concern to start with.

One channel says that, in addition to artillery fire, Ukraine is using a large number of UAVs, including TB2 in a recon role out of range of Russian air defenses. 2/https://t.co/IficpCVngu

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 19, 2022

LMCane said:

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for whatever reason, the Russkies are at the end of the tether when it comes to MBTs.

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Agree ... a significant part of their inventory is unusable because.

• No spare parts (cannibalized).
• Poor maintenance.
• Rampant corruption.

benchmark said:

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LMCane said:

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for whatever reason, the Russkies are at the end of the tether when it comes to MBTs.

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Agree ... a significant part of their inventory is unusable because.

• No spare parts (cannibalized).
• Poor maintenance.
• Rampant corruption.

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Add in inability to restock as components and raw materials for manufacturing are unavailable due to sanctions.

benchmark said:

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LMCane said:

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for whatever reason, the Russkies are at the end of the tether when it comes to MBTs.

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Agree ... a significant part of their inventory is unusable because.

• No spare parts (cannibalized).
• Poor maintenance.
• Rampant corruption.

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https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/y7l187/russian_conscripts_or_socalled_dprlpr_cannon/

A pic is worth a 1000 words:

• 1960s helmets
• Mosin-Nagant Rifle
• the innocence of that smile proving you have yet to experience any combat

Works now!

SIAP i checked back and did not see this video but I thought many here would find it interesting. Discusses the mechanics behind the UKR advances back in September.