***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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11:04a, 10/19/22

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Rossticus
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11:13a, 10/19/22
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1582606453676060672.html

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AgLA06
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:15a, 10/19/22
AG
Rossticus said:



None of this really matters. It's already under the control of an invasion force.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 11:23a, 10/19/22
AG
Interesting tactic and makes sense to use it on an enemy that has poor communication.

But that English professors better than you commentary killed me.
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Rossticus
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:27a, 10/19/22
Additionally analysis/commentary I found.





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FriscoKid
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11:30a, 10/19/22
AG


Looks like more Russian ammo is going boom in Russia.
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Rossticus
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In reply to FriscoKid • 11:37a, 10/19/22
Another view of same.

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Rossticus
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11:38a, 10/19/22
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:40a, 10/19/22
AG
This might not turn out the way he thinks it will.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:40a, 10/19/22
AG
That view doesn't look like ammo at all. Wonder what it was?

(Never mind, it was electrical substation)
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Rossticus
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11:40a, 10/19/22
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Rossticus
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In reply to FriscoKid • 11:41a, 10/19/22
FriscoKid said:
That view doesn't look like ammo at all. Wonder what it was?


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P.U.T.U
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In reply to FriscoKid • 11:43a, 10/19/22
AG
It wasn't ammo, in the second video it states it was a power substation that got hit
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:45a, 10/19/22
AG
On the south side of the river, likely had Russia military officers in there or where they were working out of since its only 6km from ZPP
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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:46a, 10/19/22
AG
Kind of an ancillary risk, not invalid but not close to the main issue with the Russo/Israeli relationship... but the real issue is that Israel has an extremely close relationship with Russia.

1 in 9 Israeli residents have direct ties to Russia via dual citizenship or residency. There's an office in Russia the expedites the movement of people between the two countries Russia has said it will 100% close if they get off on the wrong side of the fence. There's also a significant opportunity for them to have social unrest with the significant number of Russian-speakers in the country.

There's also risk of sharing nuclear secrets. Russia sharing nuclear secrets with Iran will start a war between Israel and Iran because Israel will attack before proliferation is allowed to happen. In the current geopolitical environment that leads to a large scale ground war in the ME.

This relationship with Russia has done a great job of keeping Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Eqypt at bay. If that relationship sours the region gets more dangerous immediately.
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javajaws
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 11:49a, 10/19/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
Interesting tactic and makes sense to use it on an enemy that has poor communication.

But that English professors better than you commentary killed me.
Key word in his video was "chaos". If you can handle it and your enemy can't then use it to your advantage. This gets back to the discussion of the OODA loop. If you can act and react faster than your enemy then cause as much chaos as you can to take advantage of that.

Always fight your enemy in the way that benefits you, not him.
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LMCane
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 11:52a, 10/19/22
JFABNRGR said:
LMCane said:
Rossticus said:

totally disagree with point 2 above!

it actually makes is MORE likely the Russian forces will suffer further defeats for at least a few reasons:

1) another morale destroying retreat for the Russian military;

2) if those 20,000 Russians stayed north of the Dnipro, they could likely hold on in a battle of attrition with the UFA through the winter, keeping UFA forces pinned in the Kherson area and involved in brutal city urban fighting.

3)Now the Ukes will be able to move those forces to the new offensive on the Melitopol/Mariupol line (this is my prognosis for the next major attack sometime in the next half year)
The question not yet discussed is:

Will ukraine let them retreat across the river?

To my knowledge they are down to 2-3 makeshift temporary crossings using barges and all within range of HIMARS. Since the russians have been announcing mass evacuations I would assume they are going to intermix civilians with military.

War is hell but I think you have to destroy the crossings every time they are built. Eventually the russian soldiers will swim or row across, leaving all their equipment which then can't be used against Ukraine now or later. They are just going to park it on the left bank and pound the right bank anyway.
totally agree with this post.

from reading in between the lines of some Youtube posts, it seems the Russkies have also pressed into service some large ferries which enter the main seaport at the mouth of the Dnipro to the west of Kherson.

Which actually makes sense, because no way can an entire division of soldiers be supplied from 2 small ferries running across the river every few hours.

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LMCane
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11:55a, 10/19/22
any ideas on WHY Putin cares about "removing civilians" from Kherson?

are these predominantly Russian ethnic citizens who are yelling at Putin to get them back to "Mother Russia"?

normally, it would be Ukrainian ethnic citizens who the Russians want to depopulate from their newly 'liberated' territories,

but here even Putin knows they are not getting back into Kherson anytime soon once they move south across the Dnipro.

I just find it hard to believe the Russians give a damn about any civilians, especially when they are lacking in mobile transport across a large river.
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LMCane
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 11:57a, 10/19/22
wtmartinaggie said:
Kind of an ancillary risk, not invalid but not close to the main issue with the Russo/Israeli relationship... but the real issue is that Israel has an extremely close relationship with Russia.

1 in 9 Israeli residents have direct ties to Russia via dual citizenship or residency. There's an office in Russia the expedites the movement of people between the two countries Russia has said it will 100% close if they get off on the wrong side of the fence. There's also a significant opportunity for them to have social unrest with the significant number of Russian-speakers in the country.

There's also risk of sharing nuclear secrets. Russia sharing nuclear secrets with Iran will start a war between Israel and Iran because Israel will attack before proliferation is allowed to happen. In the current geopolitical environment that leads to a large scale ground war in the ME.

This relationship with Russia has done a great job of keeping Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Eqypt at bay. If that relationship sours the region gets more dangerous immediately.
excellent points.

It may be that the real reason is what you alluded to, that Putin will slam the gates shut of emigration for all Russians, and that would trap 500,000 Jewish Russians inside the country and not allow them to get to Israel.

Or, it could be that the Russians have threatened to unleash Iran in Syria, or Hezbullah in Lebanon.

it's a real life Game of Thrones over there.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to LMCane • 12:03p, 10/19/22
AG
Seeing as Russia has lost a large amount of working age males I am sure some are to come to Russia to fulfill the needed jobs. From the reports I have seen Russia has relocated over a million Ukes already
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Rossticus
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In reply to LMCane • 12:04p, 10/19/22
LMCane said:
any ideas on WHY Putin cares about "removing civilians" from Kherson?

are these predominantly Russian ethnic citizens who are yelling at Putin to get them back to "Mother Russia"?

normally, it would be Ukrainian ethnic citizens who the Russians want to depopulate from their newly 'liberated' territories,

but here even Putin knows they are not getting back into Kherson anytime soon once they move south across the Dnipro.

I just find it hard to believe the Russians give a damn about any civilians, especially when they are lacking in mobile transport across a large river.


If they're "evacuating" them along with troops and equipment in the same area then they serve as human shields and convenient propaganda tools if any of them die.
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Rossticus
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:07p, 10/19/22
P.U.T.U said:
Seeing as Russia has lost a large amount of working age males I am sure some are to come to Russia to fulfill the needed jobs. From the reports I have seen Russia has relocated over a million Ukes already


Based mostly on Russia's own internal claims (depending how much stock you place in them) that number is 3-4 million with around 700k being children.
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74OA
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:10p, 10/19/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
Seeing as Russia has lost a large amount of working age males I am sure some are to come to Russia to fulfill the needed jobs. From the reports I have seen Russia has relocated over a million Ukes already
A more accurate descriptor is "kidnapped".
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AgLA06
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:10p, 10/19/22
AG
That's a lot of words to say nothing of substance seems to come from him declaring martial law. And the only real precedence was the Tzars did this right before the civil war that had them thrown out.

So any other words, doesn't mean much as it really doesn't matter what pretend process he's following to justify whatever he's going to do regardless in an area so loved by him, he had to invade it and put in puppet government.
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AgBank
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In reply to Rossticus • 12:11p, 10/19/22
AG
It always seems silly to suggest the idea of a democratic reformation after you have already politically / ethnically cleansed millions of apposing votes.
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Rossticus
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In reply to AgBank • 12:20p, 10/19/22
AgBank said:
It always seems silly to suggest the idea of a democratic reformation after you have already politically / ethnically cleansed millions of apposing votes.


The other element that doesn't get discussed much is the illegal immigration problem that Ukraine has always had in the east. Lots of the folks referenced when discussing the "pro-Russian Ukrainians" aren't actually Ukrainians. Just Russians living in Ukraine. There's been a political/ethnic infiltration of the Ukrainian east for a while which was used by Russia to create population pockets favorable to "separatist" movements that they then exploited.
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RogerEnright
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In reply to AgLA06 • 12:20p, 10/19/22
Agreed. Much of what he does is playing to propaganda for his home population.
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Rossticus
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12:24p, 10/19/22
Looks to have been a miscalculation on this guy's part…

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Rossticus
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12:29p, 10/19/22
First time I've seen an estimate on the number of forced deportations from Kherson.

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Rossticus
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12:30p, 10/19/22
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Rossticus
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12:31p, 10/19/22
And, there it is…

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Rossticus
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12:40p, 10/19/22
I'm shocked! SHOCKED! Well… not that shocked…

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Rossticus
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12:46p, 10/19/22
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Rossticus
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1:10p, 10/19/22
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Rossticus
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1:12p, 10/19/22
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