***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Teslag
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In reply to PA24 • 2:00p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?

Again, what equipment do you see them doing this with? The ukes are getting state of the art winter equipment and weapons. The russians have... what? You keep saying Russia can't walk away or they are in it for the long haul. This only works if they have weapons and technology to draw it out. They don't.
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aunuwyn08
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In reply to PA24 • 2:00p, 10/10/22
AG
This is not solely directed at you, but the general sense on the board that fighting will stop during winter. This isn't WW II or earlier anymore.

The snow and cold will not stop the operation of HIMARS and drone systems. If the Russians plan on "digging in" for the winter, they're going to see their defensive lines become cemeteries.

Modern weapons are far too precise, lethal, quick, reliable, and non-human centric for static defense to provide much benefit. If the Russians don't engage in winter flanking, disruption, and counterattack operations they will not survive.

Modern warfare is predicated on logistics, maneuver, and lethality.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to PA24 • 2:01p, 10/10/22
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?


I dont agree with your assessment. The Russians don't have the gear to be comfortable this winter. I get they give zero value to their troops and don't care if they die or not, but, Ukraine will be much better in 6 months that Russia because the west will supply Ukraine with the winter supplies it needs.



I agree Russia won't quit this war unless putin is deposed or killed or both. How, the best Russia will be able to do is hold a little territory. They aren't going to advance again.
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PJYoung
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In reply to PA24 • 2:02p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:

Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

Have you not seen how hollowed out Putin's military is because of massive corruption?

Where do you think the military budget went?

Hello?
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to SouthTex99 • 2:02p, 10/10/22
AG
It wouldn't matter, private military contractors are illegal in Russia even though they train at Russian bases and have direct ties to Putin. Russia uses them as a proxy to do their dirty work when they need some "deniability". If we label them terrorist Russia won't care and start labelling our PMCs as terrorist as well.
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RikkiTikkaTagem
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In reply to PA24 • 2:05p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?


Winter will be a big tell on how the war will go. Ukraine has showed flexibility when given the right tools to wage war at night, on a smaller semi-autonomous platoon level basis and they are being given the tools to wage war in winter. Their evolution of warfare combined with Russias lack of what western armies would construe as "basic" supplies is why this war is where it is today. It's clear Ukraine believes they have a big enough advantage to take back everything that Russia initially has taken and Crimea. They're playing offense right now and they have way more intel than we do on what the Russians are really equipped with.

Ukraine has the entire world supplying its armies while Russia has stockpiles from Second World War. I just don't Russian corruption and lack of manufacturing base for modern weapons will be its undoing in this war.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to PA24 • 2:06p, 10/10/22
Quote:
Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.


There is different ways of corruption. It's pretty clear the Russian military brass took a lot of the money meant for military supplies and pocketed it
Ukraine is corrupt in many ways, but it doesn't appear too much of it is affecting front line troops.
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rgag12
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In reply to PA24 • 2:07p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?


I am "rooting" for Ukraine but this is a rational take that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand because it runs counter to what we all want to happen.

Russia is still a resource-rich, major country with powerful allies (mainly China). They aren't going to simply give up because some memes came out about how some of their guys have old weapons or that their training camps are dumps. They have many more punches they can theotically give before the domestic home front starts to crack. IMO the only way Russia is going to give up is if internally they say enough, and it appears they are not near that point.
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PA24
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In reply to aunuwyn08 • 2:08p, 10/10/22
AG
aunuwyn08 said:
This is not solely directed at you, but the general sense on the board that fighting will stop during winter. This isn't WW II or earlier anymore.

The snow and cold will not stop the operation of HIMARS and drone systems. If the Russians plan on "digging in" for the winter, they're going to see their defensive lines become cemeteries.

Modern weapons are far too precise, lethal, quick, reliable, and non-human centric for static defense to provide much benefit. If the Russians don't engage in winter flanking, disruption, and counterattack operations they will not survive.

Modern warfare is predicated on logistics, maneuver, and lethality.
Then this should be over with in a matter of weeks if you actually believe Russia has shot its load and has nothing but nukes left.

I hope you are right.


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aunuwyn08
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In reply to PA24 • 2:12p, 10/10/22
AG
That's not even remotely what I said.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:12p, 10/10/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Quote:
Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.


There is different ways of corruption. It's pretty clear the Russian military brass took a lot of the money meant for military supplies and pocketed it
Ukraine is corrupt in many ways, but it doesn't appear too much of it is affecting front line troops.
Same as what happened with the so-called Afghan military. All on paper but not existing in reality. I'll also make another correlation is that the education levels of the average Russian conscript as barely literate. Where the average Afghan soldier was as well. Drug use was rampant, same as vodka for the Russians.
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fasthorse05
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In reply to SouthTex99 • 2:12p, 10/10/22
SouthTex99 said:
Why isn't the Wagner group a designated foreign terrorist organization? I know designating Russia has baggage but Wagner could easily be added and dealt with like Al Queda.
I have such a good answer for you, but it doesn't fall within the thread parameters, and I'd have to apologize.

Actually, I think that's a very good idea and don't understand why it isn't being considered.

Now on to thread topics.

Does anyone here believe last nights missiles will alter Uke's military tactics or motives?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to fasthorse05 • 2:14p, 10/10/22
AG
Maybe Belarus becomes a de facto second front?
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aezmvp
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In reply to aunuwyn08 • 2:14p, 10/10/22
To add on to this I would bet that Ukraine has near the top of their wishlists right now some infrared cameras for their drones. Especially ones that will be used for artillery spotting. I'm guessing it's gonna be a very brutal winter. There will be a lot of stuff going across both lines. There is plenty of space for their to be advances. We'll see just how much support Ukraine gets but I suspect they will be a materially better space than the Russians. BTW if you don't think that Russia is every bit as corrupt if not more so... well you're not paying attention.
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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:16p, 10/10/22
aggiehawg said:
Maybe Belarus becomes a de facto second front?
Russia has been after that for forever. I suspect that the Belarusian military would let the Russians stage out of Belarus but they have very little interest in invading, they also just got over a coup/revolt attempt not long ago. So I suspect that if any invasion failed from Belarus that their government might fall.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:18p, 10/10/22
They tried to invade at the beginning of this conflict and the Belarusian military said nope
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rgag12
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:23p, 10/10/22
AG
aezmvp said:
aggiehawg said:
Maybe Belarus becomes a de facto second front?
Russia has been after that for forever. I suspect that the Belarusian military would let the Russians stage out of Belarus but they have very little interest in invading, they also just got over a coup/revolt attempt not long ago. So I suspect that if any invasion failed from Belarus that their government might fall.


Wait though, Russia already staged an invasion through Belarus back in February. It failed because Russia had severe man power issues that Ukraine was about to exploit, but were there any consequences for Belarus? No

So if you're Russia, and you think you've partially fixed your manpower issue with this conscription, why not try again? It's not like Belarus is going to refuse you, if they do you'll take over their government. And if Ukraine punishes Belarus for staging (or pretending to stage) another invasion attempt through its border? Great! Now Belarus is in the war and another large permanent front is opened up to suck up more Ukrainian man power.
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B-1 83
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:24p, 10/10/22
AG
aezmvp said:
aggiehawg said:
Maybe Belarus becomes a de facto second front?
Russia has been after that for forever. I suspect that the Belarusian military would let the Russians stage out of Belarus but they have very little interest in invading, they also just got over a coup/revolt attempt not long ago. So I suspect that if any invasion failed from Belarus that their government might fall.
The best thing that could happen would be for a few thousand of the new conscripts to be turned to hamburger as they cross that Belarusian border. Their loyalty, training, and fighting spirit are already questionable, a little horror will break them.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Gordo14
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In reply to rgag12 • 2:25p, 10/10/22
rgag12 said:
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?


I am "rooting" for Ukraine but this is a rational take that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand because it runs counter to what we all want to happen.

Russia is still a resource-rich, major country with powerful allies (mainly China). They aren't going to simply give up because some memes came out about how some of their guys have old weapons or that their training camps are dumps. They have many more punches they can theotically give before the domestic home front starts to crack. IMO the only way Russia is going to give up is if internally they say enough, and it appears they are not near that point.


"Rational take". Well can't argue with that. The rational take should be: as long as there is the will for the Ukrainian people to fight for their land and their people, we should support them. Have you seen anything to suggest that this is changing in the slightest? Where are the Ukrainians begging us to broker a peace for them. Remember they did not ask for this war.

Elon's a ****ing idiot and everybody should be concerned with how casually he tosses away Taiwan and Ukraine to autocratic regimes against the will of the people. Particularly because Taiwan isn't at war and Ukraine is winning. Where was his nobel peace prize winning idea before this war started. Is he about to solve peace in the middle east by tweet next. Classic main character syndrome, and it's his 420 IQ fanbase that only encourages more half baked ideas. He should stick to building cave submarines and calling rescuers pedos.

Ukraine actually can win this thing. I am not going to put a timeline on it because there are a lot of complex forces in play, but I think it's entirely possible we are months away from Russia collapsing in Ukraine. Ukraine have a massive advantage right now and it is widening, not shrinking. Why is it now there's sudden panicked calls for peace now that Russia is in trouble? All of these voices were silent for 6 months, until now. Is it possible that this is an example of Russian propoganda pretending to be "rational"?
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The Fife
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:26p, 10/10/22
Waffledynamics said:
Holy window glare Batman, how are they supposed to see out the front of that? Add some dust on top of those windows and you really can't see where you're going.
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Teslag
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In reply to PA24 • 2:26p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
aunuwyn08 said:
This is not solely directed at you, but the general sense on the board that fighting will stop during winter. This isn't WW II or earlier anymore.

The snow and cold will not stop the operation of HIMARS and drone systems. If the Russians plan on "digging in" for the winter, they're going to see their defensive lines become cemeteries.

Modern weapons are far too precise, lethal, quick, reliable, and non-human centric for static defense to provide much benefit. If the Russians don't engage in winter flanking, disruption, and counterattack operations they will not survive.

Modern warfare is predicated on logistics, maneuver, and lethality.
Then this should be over with in a matter of weeks if you actually believe Russia has shot its load and has nothing but nukes left.

I hope you are right.



By next summer the Ukes will be knocking on the door for Crimea
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to B-1 83 • 2:28p, 10/10/22
AG
B-1 83 said:
aezmvp said:
aggiehawg said:
Maybe Belarus becomes a de facto second front?
Russia has been after that for forever. I suspect that the Belarusian military would let the Russians stage out of Belarus but they have very little interest in invading, they also just got over a coup/revolt attempt not long ago. So I suspect that if any invasion failed from Belarus that their government might fall.
The best thing that could happen would be for a few thousand of the new conscripts to be turned to hamburger as they cross that Belarusian border. Their loyalty, training, and fighting spirit are already questionable, a little horror will break them.


The Ukes ran them out from the northern front months ago. Be assured they have not spent this time soley on rebuilding the welcome to Ukraine signs.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Not a Bot
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In reply to rgag12 • 2:29p, 10/10/22
AG
They didn't so much have manpower issues as logistical issues. The troops coming from the north toward Kyiv were not new conscripts for the most part. It was Chechens, Wagner, and VZV. They couldn't get gas and supplies from point A to point B. The Ukrainians did a great job taking out their supply lines and cutting them off from the rear. That was before a huge chunk of the western military equipment even arrived. Now with HIMARS and other long range systems they would be sitting ducks crossing the border.
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AgLA06
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In reply to PA24 • 2:30p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
aunuwyn08 said:
This is not solely directed at you, but the general sense on the board that fighting will stop during winter. This isn't WW II or earlier anymore.

The snow and cold will not stop the operation of HIMARS and drone systems. If the Russians plan on "digging in" for the winter, they're going to see their defensive lines become cemeteries.

Modern weapons are far too precise, lethal, quick, reliable, and non-human centric for static defense to provide much benefit. If the Russians don't engage in winter flanking, disruption, and counterattack operations they will not survive.

Modern warfare is predicated on logistics, maneuver, and lethality.
Then this should be over with in a matter of weeks if you actually believe Russia has shot its load and has nothing but nukes left.

I hope you are right.


I know you're talking in circles on purpose because you can't truthfully answer the questions without admitting what you are saying isn't reality.

Doesn't matter if Russia is resource rich if they're so corrupt it can't translate to working equipment, gear, and ammo for troops that haven't been trained. It's almost laughable you label Ukraine corrupt yet Russia has proven more so. They called up 300K troops to learn all the uniforms meant for them were "missing".

So instead of talking about what ifs, let's focus on what has been proven since February.

  • It's been proven Russian intelligence is incompetent and told Putin they would be welcomed with flower.
  • It's been proven Russia is inept in military planning and couldn't take the equivalent of Mexico.
  • It's been proven Russia can't logistically move or supply their forces.
  • It's been proven most of Russians standing (trained and ready) forces have been proven ineffective and most depleted to less than battle worthy.
  • It's been proven that Ukraine is capable of scaling up their forces, training them, and supplying them through every country that doesn't have a dictator.
  • It's been proven can Ukraine can plan and execute large offensives and then hold the territory.
  • It's been proven that the only success for Russia since the beginning of September has been micro small gains by Wagner that is irrelevant based on Ukrainian gains north of them.

So I'll ask, why do you think this conflict will favor Russia?


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PA24
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In reply to Teslag • 2:32p, 10/10/22
AG
Teslag said:
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?

Again, what equipment do you see them doing this with? The ukes are getting state of the art winter equipment and weapons. The russians have... what? You keep saying Russia can't walk away or they are in it for the long haul. This only works if they have weapons and technology to draw it out. They don't.
I think Russia has adequate supplies for winter fighting, my goodness, they live in that crappy environment. I also think Russia has plenty of bullets land guns left in their arsenal.

I hate the Russians and would gladly kill them if they attacked Texas but I am not going to be fooled in thinking they are even closed to being beat back in Ukraine.
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2:33p, 10/10/22
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2:37p, 10/10/22
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In reply to Not a Bot • 2:37p, 10/10/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:
They didn't so much have manpower issues as logistical issues. The troops coming from the north toward Kyiv were not new conscripts for the most part. It was Chechens, Wagner, and VZV. They couldn't get gas and supplies from point A to point B. The Ukrainians did a great job taking out their supply lines and cutting them off from the rear. That was before a huge chunk of the western military equipment even arrived. Now with HIMARS and other long range systems they would be sitting ducks crossing the border.


True, logistics was pretty terrible for them back then. It could prove disastrous for Russia again if they tried it.

I personally see the Russian troops, if true, in Belarus as a feint. A feint to at best draw Belarus into the war.
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In reply to PA24 • 2:38p, 10/10/22
AG
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?

Again, what equipment do you see them doing this with? The ukes are getting state of the art winter equipment and weapons. The russians have... what? You keep saying Russia can't walk away or they are in it for the long haul. This only works if they have weapons and technology to draw it out. They don't.
I think Russia has adequate supplies for winter fighting, my goodness, they live in that crappy environment. I also think Russia has plenty of bullets land guns left in their arsenal.

I hate the Russians and would gladly kill them if they attacked Texas but I am not going to be fooled in thinking they are even closed to being beat back in Ukraine.
Based on what has been proven so far, how can you think this?
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Faustus
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In reply to PA24 • 2:39p, 10/10/22
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
PA24 said:
Teslag said:
Don't go into hysterics. People are asking you legitimate questions about how Russia will equip soldiers on a modern battlefield. It's no longer 1944. A horde of ill equipped soldiers can be quickly decimated with modern weapons.
I believe the last 30 days have been devastating to the Russians but it is still Russia, predicting their demise is a little premature. Both sides will dig in for the winter, a winter than will see temps drop to below -20F. Big advantage to the Russians as they regroup and prepare for a spring campaign, slaughtering of the masses on both sides. I also don't believe everything I read from the Ukrainians. Before this war started, super corrupt country and nothing has changed and Russia is a heartless country. Heartless beats corruption every time.

I cant see Russia walking away from Ukraine, not after all the damage they have done. Nope, they are in it for the long haul. As far as the draft dodgers, not a lot of options for them once they think it thru. That has pretty much died down has it not?

Winter is coming, both sides digging in but the shelling of Ukraine's infrastructure has just really begun.

I am not a fan of Putin and hope they kill him but don't think it matters anymore, about to become an all out war with Ukraine.

I am a backer of Elon's proposal for peace.

How do you see this ending?

Again, what equipment do you see them doing this with? The ukes are getting state of the art winter equipment and weapons. The russians have... what? You keep saying Russia can't walk away or they are in it for the long haul. This only works if they have weapons and technology to draw it out. They don't.
I think Russia has adequate supplies for winter fighting, my goodness, they live in that crappy environment. I also think Russia has plenty of bullets land guns left in their arsenal.

I hate the Russians and would gladly kill them if they attacked Texas but I am not going to be fooled in thinking they are even closed to being beat back in Ukraine.


This thread is for updates about what is happening in Ukraine, not what would PA24 do in Texas or what you may think Russia has or may do in the future.

I wish folks would stop engaging him.
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Rossticus
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2:39p, 10/10/22
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to PA24 • 2:40p, 10/10/22
AG
Ukraine isn't stopping for the winter. They're equipping for it.

Winter presents many opportunities with the ground frozen and able to support heavy vehicles. Spring is not a good time for an offensive because the mud will bog them down. That's what happened to Russia in the north and a big reason their initial invasion stalled.

Ukraine will continue pushing, potentially trying to cut the Russians in half south of Zaporizhzhia and working West to cut Kherson off from Crimea and resupply.

Russia will be beaten into submission. Either they willingly pull out because of internal politics/strife or Ukraine pushes them to the border. It will not be quick, but Russia has lost the initiative and has already hemorrhaged a lot of its best equipment and personnel. As mentioned ad nauseum, the Russians are having trouble equipping their conscripts already. They don't have the weapons or uniforms to field another 300,000 conscripts, much less the 25 million you talk about. They planned and staged their invasion for several months beforehand and stalled due to poor logistics. They lost thousands if not tens of thousands of men trying to go to Kiev and got bogged down and ran out of gas, and you think they can whip up even more supplies, equipment, and trained troops and coordinate and supply it all in a couple of months?

The Ukrainians on the other hand keep getting more NATO equipment and better capabilities. With the PGM's they're being given, they can pick apart Russia's rear echelons and logistics. They've proven themselves adept at symmetric and asymmetric warfare and striking strategic Russian targets they have no business hitting (Moskva, Russian airfields in Crimea, Kerch bridge). They've proven incredibly resourceful and highly motivated. Their trajectories do not point to a stalemate or Russian victory.

Again either Russia gets physically pushed back or internal politics forces them to pull out. Either mounting losses and conscription makes this to unpopular at home to continue, Putin's inner circle or generals decides to cut their losses, or someone else sees a political opportunity and decides to launch a coup with the intent of using over and using a pull out as a means of consolidating power and building a support base.
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Rossticus
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2:40p, 10/10/22


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