***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:55p, 10/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I'd assumed that the Bahkmut offensive was being most heavily supplied from Severodonetsk/Lysychans'k. Whether that's actually the case, I don't know, but proximity and highway connectivity would (superficially at least) seem to dictate that as the most effective primary supply hub.
Yes, but I would imagine rail is vastly more preferred than trucks, especially since we've seen Russia's trucks in action. That rail line to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is the same one that runs through Kupyansk and Svatove. It's cut. Are they driving trucks everywhere now?
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aezmvp
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:59p, 10/7/22
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
I'd assumed that the Bahkmut offensive was being most heavily supplied from Severodonetsk/Lysychans'k. Whether that's actually the case, I don't know, but proximity and highway connectivity would (superficially at least) seem to dictate that as the most effective primary supply hub.
Yes, but I would imagine rail is vastly more preferred than trucks, especially since we've seen Russia's trucks in action. That rail line to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is the same one that runs through Kupyansk and Svatove. It's cut. Are they driving trucks everywhere now?
Rail is direct into their hubs but their final mile is truck borne just like everyone else.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:04p, 10/7/22
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
I'd assumed that the Bahkmut offensive was being most heavily supplied from Severodonetsk/Lysychans'k. Whether that's actually the case, I don't know, but proximity and highway connectivity would (superficially at least) seem to dictate that as the most effective primary supply hub.
Yes, but I would imagine rail is vastly more preferred than trucks, especially since we've seen Russia's trucks in action. That rail line to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is the same one that runs through Kupyansk and Svatove. It's cut. Are they driving trucks everywhere now?


Absolutely. But, if the rail line from the north is severed then I don't see what other options they have unless there is an eastern or southern line into Severodonetsk. If not then they're screwed.

That also means that fuel would have to come in on trucks instead of by rail as well. That's a huge deal.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:32p, 10/7/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Potential update:

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Rossticus
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2:35p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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2:37p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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2:38p, 10/7/22
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Waffledynamics
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2:40p, 10/7/22
AG




It doesn't look like the map has updated yet, but that's not the best news for Ukraine. They need to stop the advances on the Donetsk line. Hopefully that happens soon with the recent changes to the North.

Edit:

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Rossticus
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2:43p, 10/7/22
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Waffledynamics
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2:50p, 10/7/22
AG


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Waffledynamics
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3:52p, 10/7/22
AG
Quote:
Air defense shot down 3 Shahed drones on the way to Odesa and Mykolaiv
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-october-air-defense-shot-down-3-shahed-drones-on-the-way
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Rossticus
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4:08p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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4:10p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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4:11p, 10/7/22
Yet another exhibit as to why anyone who thinks that Russia will negotiate for peace in good faith is naively hopeful. Russia will negotiate for gains, re-fit, then come back to finish the job… and get revenge on the west.

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:15p, 10/7/22
AG
So they are using a plane that some thing is close to the F22 to drop unguided bombs? That makes a lot of sense...
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GAC06
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 4:30p, 10/7/22
AG
Closest equivalent would be an F-15
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Rossticus
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4:31p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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4:36p, 10/7/22
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lb3
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:52p, 10/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Waffledynamics said:
Rossticus said:
I'd assumed that the Bahkmut offensive was being most heavily supplied from Severodonetsk/Lysychans'k. Whether that's actually the case, I don't know, but proximity and highway connectivity would (superficially at least) seem to dictate that as the most effective primary supply hub.
Yes, but I would imagine rail is vastly more preferred than trucks, especially since we've seen Russia's trucks in action. That rail line to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is the same one that runs through Kupyansk and Svatove. It's cut. Are they driving trucks everywhere now?


Absolutely. But, if the rail line from the north is severed then I don't see what other options they have unless there is an eastern or southern line into Severodonetsk. If not then they're screwed.

That also means that fuel would have to come in on trucks instead of by rail as well. That's a huge deal.
Once the mine dispensing artillery shells arrive, road born logistics will slow to a crawl and the Russians will be using human pack mules to transport their ordinance, food, and fuel to the front. They should consult the NVA on how to do this under cover of darkness.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:53p, 10/7/22
AG
Hmm. He clearly supports invading Romania and Moldova. Though he has a point, time is not on their side so long as Ukraine has a decent peacetime leader.
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Rossticus
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4:53p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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5:02p, 10/7/22
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1576403804551106560.html

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JB!98
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:07p, 10/7/22
AG
Rossticus said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1576403804551106560.html

The old spray and pray method. I sure their accuracy is unmatched.
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Waffledynamics
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5:16p, 10/7/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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5:23p, 10/7/22
AG


Denys notices the slow down to start off the video. Ukraine is further solidifying gains in the Northeast. He believes an attack on Svatove happen next week.

At 2:42, Denys says he expects one more counterattack somewhere, though he's not saying where he expects it to be. He expects a lot of hot fighting this autumn until the winter time.

A lot of the information has already been covered here, but it's still a good video.
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74OA
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5:25p, 10/7/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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AlaskanAg99
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In reply to JB!98 • 5:30p, 10/7/22
AG
JB!98 said:
Rossticus said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1576403804551106560.html

The old spray and pray method. I sure their accuracy is unmatched.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to JB!98 • 5:35p, 10/7/22
AG
JB!98 said:
Rossticus said:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1576403804551106560.html

The old spray and pray method. I sure their accuracy is unmatched.


They have like 2 rocket pods each and a bunch of empty pylons. No way that's a combat mission.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 5:44p, 10/7/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
So they are using a plane that some thing is close to the F22 to drop unguided bombs? That makes a lot of sense...

You are thinking of the Su-57. That's their 5th gen tighten and to my knowledge we haven't seen them in action in this
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Rossticus
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5:49p, 10/7/22
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aezmvp
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 5:58p, 10/7/22
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
P.U.T.U said:
So they are using a plane that some thing is close to the F22 to drop unguided bombs? That makes a lot of sense...

You are thinking of the Su-57. That's their 5th gen tighten and to my knowledge we haven't seen them in action in this
They have lost 1 or 2 out of their inventory of 10 or so. Theyre involved but not recently.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to aezmvp • 6:13p, 10/7/22
AG
aezmvp said:
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
P.U.T.U said:
So they are using a plane that some thing is close to the F22 to drop unguided bombs? That makes a lot of sense...

You are thinking of the Su-57. That's their 5th gen tighten and to my knowledge we haven't seen them in action in this
They have lost 1 or 2 out of their inventory of 10 or so. Theyre involved but not recently.

Thanks must have missed that. Glad to hear of them losing some of their "premier" aircraft.
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Rossticus
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6:14p, 10/7/22
Ukraine is going there… nice.

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Rossticus
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6:21p, 10/7/22
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Rossticus
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6:54p, 10/7/22
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