***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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FriscoKid
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10:06p, 10/4/22
AG


Strong cope with this one, it is.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to FriscoKid • 10:13p, 10/4/22
AG
Summary...

We've learned a lot in the past 8 months on how to fight and win this war. 300k new soldiers are being properly trained right now along with officers. The current situation is not ideal, but we are more than strong enough to protect and defend Kherson. This is fairly easy.

She asks him how the soldiers are currently feeling in the foxhole... He looks and a pauses a long time and then gives a non-answer. The end.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to FriscoKid • 10:16p, 10/4/22
AG
"The problem is not some sort of grand strategy, it is in the localities…"

They are in denial.
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FamousAgg
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In reply to fullback44 • 10:17p, 10/4/22
fullback44 said:
Rossticus said:


Wow.. not too smart!


Why would we think they are actually functional? Most likely styrofoam blocks painted…
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Rossticus
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10:36p, 10/4/22

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wangus12
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In reply to FriscoKid • 10:44p, 10/4/22
AG
FriscoKid said:


Strong cope with this one, it is.


What you think an advance in the dead of winter with raw recruits and no supplies is a bad idea
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FriscoKid
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In reply to wangus12 • 10:51p, 10/4/22
AG
And no winter gear. Their equipment and personal losses have been staggering. How in the hell are you going to make it through the winter with 300k Ill equipped and completely unmotivated "recruits"?

They were given a gun, 4 mags, and an order to go.
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Rossticus
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10:55p, 10/4/22

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577503148121460741.html

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Rossticus
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11:20p, 10/4/22
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FriscoKid
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:29p, 10/4/22
AG
They didn't flee. They decided to work remote for a few years. I'm sure they are still 100% with the company.
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FIDO95
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In reply to Rossticus • 11:44p, 10/4/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I actually learned something from Solovyov... I had never heard that Sun Tzu quote about "If you know yourself and your enemy, you need not fear the results of 100 battles,..." Wise words.

Unfortunately for the Russians. They failed to know the will and ability of the Ukrainians. The lies they tell themselves also blinded them to who they in fact are. As such, they fall into the third scenario Sun Tzu's describes: "If you know neither yourself or your enemy, you will succumb in every battle".
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to FIDO95 • 12:07a, 10/5/22
AG
I think they saw the division in NATO and between Europe and the United States after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Members of British parliament were openly trashing Biden. So were many NATO states. I think their assessment was that they could strike quickly within a few days and that Europe would be fractured on a response. Instead, you really saw European nations leading the charge to offer support while Biden was still offering rides out.
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Rossticus
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12:11a, 10/5/22
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1577485544237535232.html

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Rossticus
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12:44a, 10/5/22
This guy is a good follow, BTW. Currently at The Bush School.

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RikkiTikkaTagem
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 2:01a, 10/5/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
He's a political scientist with somewhat conservative views who was part of the Reagan administration and has made some fairly big predictions over time that ended up coming true. It makes sense that our side might be predicting the collapse of Russia with all the recent chatter about Putin potentially using nukes. If we thought they were about to go down, a risk could be the use of nukes by Putin. I'm not necessarily endorsing the theory, but I think it's worth mentioning here.


I think it's worth talking about. Siberian Regionalism has always lurked as a threat. They even temporarily tried to break away the last time Russia had a civil war. A stand alone Siberian state would be a wealthy country if they broke off. Instead as of having their minerals and oil profits sent to oligarchs in Moscow, they could keep that home. China, Europe and the US would be huge buyers and investors in the vast amounts of natural resources.

Siberian's are culturally different than western Russians. With Russia failing to take care of Ukraine, how can they put down a Siberian revolt that covers 5,000,000 square miles (1.3 million sq miles bigger than China). Both China and the US would court a new siberian republic for military reasons as well.

Article from 2020
https://jamestown.org/program/siberian-regionalism-a-growing-threat-to-moscow/

ETA: it's related to this thread more so because if Russia starts having significant breakaway states rebel, not only is this war over for Russia in Ukraine, Ukraine goes and gets Crimea too.
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Gordo14
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In reply to Not a Bot • 7:36a, 10/5/22
Private PoopyPants said:
I think they saw the division in NATO and between Europe and the United States after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Members of British parliament were openly trashing Biden. So were many NATO states. I think their assessment was that they could strike quickly within a few days and that Europe would be fractured on a response. Instead, you really saw European nations leading the charge to offer support while Biden was still offering rides out.


They planned the war long before Afghanistan. They sold all of their US debt in 2018. They did a dress rehearsal of mobilizing all their forces to Ukraine's border in early 2021. They started restricting gas supplies to Europe in June 2021. NATO started becoming "fractured" in the 2018 time frame due to our abrasive and arrogant behavoir. So much so, that there are credible rumors that we were planning on leaving NATO. I don't doubt that Putin was emboldened by Afghanistan and got a lot of satisfaction out of what went down, but the decision to invade Ukraine absolutely was at least prepared prior to our Afghanistan exit.
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Waffledynamics
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7:36a, 10/5/22
AG
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Waffledynamics
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7:42a, 10/5/22
AG
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The Fife
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:01a, 10/5/22
Officers gone, trigger pullers all left behind? Sounds like a recipe for mass surrender or total chaos as they realize they've been abandoned. Hoping for the former.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to The Fife • 8:07a, 10/5/22
AG
Seems to be their M.O., when things get bad the officers leave and the foot soldiers are on their own. With their top down command this is a recipe for disaster.
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The Fife
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 8:09a, 10/5/22
I don't think I've seen any figures for how many POWs they've taken in so far. Got any ideas? For a while I've been thinking at some point there has to be some kind of strain on whatever system they have in place to feed, house, and watch all of them.
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agcrock2005
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8:20a, 10/5/22
AG
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benchmark
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8:29a, 10/5/22
AG
Conflicting reports on Snihurivka. Will be interesting to watch. Lots of possibilities on what could happen when UF takes Snihurivka.

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to benchmark • 8:39a, 10/5/22
AG
Seems like its the officers retreating with Wagner group making sure the conscripts and such don't retreat
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Waffledynamics
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9:03a, 10/5/22
AG
Posted 6 hours ago on LiveUaMap.

Quote:
Missile strike reported at Ninel hotel in Kherson, used as a base by Russian FSB


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/5-october-missile-strike-reported-at-ninel-hotel-in-kherson
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lb sand
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9:09a, 10/5/22
AG
Gen. Hodges roadmap to Ukraine victory.

All hypothetical, but interesting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html
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bonfarr
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In reply to lb sand • 9:38a, 10/5/22
AG
lb sand said:
Gen. Hodges roadmap to Ukraine victory.

All hypothetical, but interesting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html


I still don't see how Ukraine can mount a land invasion of Crimea. They can hammer the coast with missiles from Southern Ukraine but how do they get enough boots on the ground to push the Russians out with only a few roads to access?

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this post reflect the opinions of Texags user bonfarr and are not to be accepted as facts or to be accepted at face value.
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javajaws
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9:54a, 10/5/22
AG
If Ukraine really wants Crimea (and from all reports they do) - then I don't see how pushing all the way from the North/East through the Donbas and leaving Crimea for last makes that easy. They would not only have to leave behind forces to prevent a re-incursion from the Russian border, but they also would effectively push forces into Crimea which would allow Russia to defend it better.

Maybe a better route would be to take Kherson and Melitopol, then Crimea. After they take Crimea all they'll need to leave behind is a token force to hold it. They could then squeeze the Russians from the North, West, and South with everything they have then hold the border.

Then again, maybe they just want to soften up Crimea for a long time with arty and only need minimal forces to actually take it (perhaps lots of special forces type actions behind the lines).
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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rgag12
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In reply to bonfarr • 10:01a, 10/5/22
AG
bonfarr said:
lb sand said:
Gen. Hodges roadmap to Ukraine victory.

All hypothetical, but interesting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html


I still don't see how Ukraine can mount a land invasion of Crimea. They can hammer the coast with missiles from Southern Ukraine but how do they get enough boots on the ground to push the Russians out with only a few roads to access?



Yea a land assault would be extremely hard. If Ukraine had a big enough navy you'd probably be able to get a very good result with a blockade. Cutting off the water from mainland Ukraine, and an effective blockade would reduce the force relatively quickly. Then you could easily land assault forces on beachheads if need be.

However Ukraine doesn't have that kind of Navy, so I don't see Crimea being an easy nut to crack.
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Red Pear Realty
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10:02a, 10/5/22
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AG
Cut the water.
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AgLA06
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In reply to javajaws • 10:11a, 10/5/22
AG
I don't think either option makes sense.

As much as I wish they could, they aren't going to be able to fight in the north, east, and south at the same time with the numbers needed to keep this kind of offensive going.

My hope is after they get to where they think is a good stopping point in the north, those forces are diverted to the south east. As much as they want all Ukraine territory back, the east is going to be a nightmare with the republics fighting insurrections and gorilla warfare. Might as well leave just enough forces there to fix and hold the east and focus on the south.

I still think the way to Crimea is to keep the attack through Kherson and then bring a second column from the north (Dnipro area) straight to the Sea of Azav (Maripol or even Berdyans'k). Cutting the Russians in half and forcing them to supply Crimea by boats susceptible to Harpoons or one bridge is the way to success.

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The Fife
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10:12a, 10/5/22
Water and supplies, if Crimea is all that's left they should be able to target means of resupplying by sea (ports or directly attacking vessels), and by land since there's only one way in and out at that point. Be patient and wait them out for a bit, come up with a workable plan, then go.
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Red Pear Realty
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10:13a, 10/5/22
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Somebody is selling the Iranians US made chips…

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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 10:20a, 10/5/22
AG
Hell the tail section of one of the captured guided munitions was in English. We are selling them a lot apparently. Or it was part of the package left behind in Kabul.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to bonfarr • 10:26a, 10/5/22
AG
bonfarr said:
lb sand said:
Gen. Hodges roadmap to Ukraine victory.

All hypothetical, but interesting.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html


I still don't see how Ukraine can mount a land invasion of Crimea. They can hammer the coast with missiles from Southern Ukraine but how do they get enough boots on the ground to push the Russians out with only a few roads to access?



Where we're going, we don't need roads...

In all seriousness, I think there's enough flat ground that they can punch through with armored formations. When the time comes, it could potentially be an armored push coupled with landing troops behind Russian lines with helicopters. Or having partisans engage rear areas to sow confusion and draw attention and resources from the main thrust.
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