Quote:

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It's likely a deception. If it were just captured equipment, the risk would be from friendly fire.

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Why would there not be a risk of friendly fire with a deception? Identity could be conveyed to friendly forces just as easily with either scenario.

Small squads reduces likelihood of friendly fire , lots of commentary that the Uke counter offensive is platoon size units .
Lastly the Orcs are losing badly so some of their reporters are resorting to calling the Ukes " cheaters " instead of owning the massive incompetence shown by the Russian Military

Reports of Russian train allegedly carrying nuclear weapons heading toward Ukraine appear to be FALSE based on US analysis, senior US defense official tells @JenGriffinFNC https://t.co/argWUBJ5cj via @JenGriffinFNC #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Cn42oLlSJT

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) October 4, 2022

Aren't we suppose to believe that many of the subs in the Black Sea already have nukes? Train seems like an antiquated and monitored way of transporting a threat.

Seems more like saber rattling. I am not saying they won't use a nuke, but even if they have / had one on a train, it seems like it is more for show than use.

If Russia ever actually used a nuke, what do we think the odds are it would blow up before leaving the silo? Hyperbolic question I'm sure but truth be told after what we have seen I'm super curious about what percentage of their nuclear Arsenal is actually usable.

RogerEnright said:

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Aren't we suppose to believe that many of the subs in the Black Sea already have nukes? Train seems like an antiquated and monitored way of transporting a threat.

Seems more like saber rattling. I am not saying they won't use a nuke, but even if they have / had one on a train, it seems like it is more for show than use.

---

From what I read about it, the alleged nuke train was assigned to the unit who's duty is to handle Russia's nukes.

So, it could be that the train was simply moving traditional weapons because they need the transportation and westerners freaked because it was the nuke train.

Or

It could be putin attempting to follow up his verbal threats with something kinetic. Every nuke threat so far has only been verbal and the USA has reported no apparent nuclear mobilization activity associated with it. So maybe putin is trying to show some elements of his nuclear force are being positioned.

Or

Maybe they are moving tactical nukes instead of doomsday nukes?

During the two weeks of the #Russian #mobilization more than 200 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation entered #Kazakhstan. 147,000 have already left, stated the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic. pic.twitter.com/nG0VHMsYoz

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 4, 2022

GarryowenAg said:

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I sure wish y'all would stop using the phrase "the Ukraine". It's a Russian phrase and people need to realize it's simply Ukraine. THE implies it's not a sovereign state, but simply a territory or outcropping of another state. Fix yourselves!

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I blame Cosmo.

Quote:

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Lukashenka: Belarus is taking part in military operation in Ukraine, protecting Russia in Belarus from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-october-lukashenka-belarus-is-taking-part-in-military-operation

This is like the kid in paintball that's too scared to go on offense and says he's going to just stay back and protect the base.

This is Lukashenka's way of getting out of actually sending troops into Ukraine. I get what he's doing.

Rossticus said:

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Interesting. Russian military bloggers confirming previous information that Ukrainians used widespread deception — including using Russian identifying marks Z and V on vehicles — to penetrate deep behind Russian lines in Kherson. pic.twitter.com/9cycdcc0Xj

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) October 4, 2022

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The Russians had plenty of time how to make their equipment clearly differentiates from Ukraine's. They chose spray paint a Z on it and now they are upset/surprised that Ukraine has spray painted Z's on equipment used behind enemy lines. Will add to list of areas of incompetence.

RogerEnright said:

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Aren't we suppose to believe that many of the subs in the Black Sea already have nukes? Train seems like an antiquated and monitored way of transporting a threat.

Seems more like saber rattling. I am not saying they won't use a nuke, but even if they have / had one on a train, it seems like it is more for show than use.

---

But it makes for a great movie! Under Siege 3 : The Ballistic Baltic

Ukraine has finally broken past the stubborn Davydiv Brid. Push is on

KHERSON/ FLASH TRAFFIC/1030 UTC 4 OCT/ At 1000 UTC, developing reports indicate that RU forces have fallen back to shorten their lines S of Novohrednjeve. Partisan reports indicate that RU units are establishing a new defensive line in the vicinity of Mylove. pic.twitter.com/tG4K3tgw6F

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 4, 2022

Honestly, I would put it at a slim chance that it blows up accidentally on launch. If Russia is going to use one nuke, they'll pick from their most modern stock.

Now if Russia decided it was going to launch their whole salvo to end the world, yeah I would estimate there would be a small percentage of missiles that fail to launch, blow up upon exit, fail guidance to target, or fail to arm the warhead. But enough would work that it wouldn't make a difference.

Also, getting a tactical nuke launched into a neighbor state is less stress on the missile than an ICBM thats gotta go to outer space. So if you're pulling old parts and relying on overcoming corrosion, erosion, and negligence I would assume the shorter range stuff is better suited for launch.

America has been relying on supercomputer simulations and continued validation testing of subassemblies to ensure that its stockpile is ready to go. Slowly updating parts as technology improves. Getting rid of things like tape decks and upgrading guidance systems. I would expect Russia is doing the same.

This is an excellent listen (probably pie in the sky but informative) gets better and better till the end with an FDR speech, which I posted separate in long and shorter versions. One could say they were written for this war as well. History repeats.

Items discussed: Putin, Crimea, Air control, IADS, SEAD/DEAD, Patriot ADA, Sweden, BVR, Gripen, MDBA Meteor, NASAMS, HIMARS, AGM84 SLAM-ER, AGM158-JASSM, F16, HARM, AIM120-AMRAAM, JSOW, F16 air crew resources globally.

33:57 "where democracy needs to be delivered"



Long version FDR.



Short version FDR

sclaff said:

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Ukraine has finally broken past the stubborn Davydiv Brid. Push is on

KHERSON/ FLASH TRAFFIC/1030 UTC 4 OCT/ At 1000 UTC, developing reports indicate that RU forces have fallen back to shorten their lines S of Novohrednjeve. Partisan reports indicate that RU units are establishing a new defensive line in the vicinity of Mylove. pic.twitter.com/tG4K3tgw6F

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 4, 2022

---

Really interested in the partisan side of the war. I know it is necessarily secret for now but one of the areas I plan to look at closely once this war is over and the true analysis can begin. Directed arty strikes of course implies supplies and coordination with regular forces. Wonder if it is all organic or the Uke SF units. Haven't heard too much from them since the initial days (rightly so) and can easily imagine them of course fulfilling the traditional role of SF of operating behind enemy lines. Either way, more pure gold learning lessons for the US and other observers. Can never have enough real world data in these realms.

Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Lukashenka: Belarus is taking part in military operation in Ukraine, protecting Russia in Belarus from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-october-lukashenka-belarus-is-taking-part-in-military-operation

This is like the kid in paintball that's too scared to go on offense and says he's going to just stay back and protect the base.

This is Lukashenka's way of getting out of actually sending troops into Ukraine. I get what he's doing.

---

That's funny that Lukashenka thinks he could stop those 3 countries from rolling to the Russian border in last than 48 hours.

It seems like Belarus could either offer a distraction or even deal a sharp blow to Kiev from the west while everything is focused in the east. How many Ukrainian troops are still west of Kiev?

wangus12 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Quote:

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Lukashenka: Belarus is taking part in military operation in Ukraine, protecting Russia in Belarus from Poland, Latvia and Lithuania

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-october-lukashenka-belarus-is-taking-part-in-military-operation

This is like the kid in paintball that's too scared to go on offense and says he's going to just stay back and protect the base.

This is Lukashenka's way of getting out of actually sending troops into Ukraine. I get what he's doing.

---

That's funny that Lukashenka thinks he could stop those 3 countries from rolling to the Russian border in last than 48 hours.

---

It reads more to me like he's signaling that Belarus is an unwilling part of this ordeal. His weird woodcutting video, stalling tactics, and the recent Russian State TV comments where the Belarusian representative on the show was shocked to learn they're apparently part of Russia makes it more convincing that they're claiming Belarus are hostages.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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I would expect Russia is doing the same.

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Well, they haven't taken care of much else...

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I completely agree, but what gives me pause is how central the nukes are to Russia's power. If there's one thing that actually gets moderately maintained, its going to be the nukes. The story of Russia's technology is brilliant phds working on shoe string budgets without access to high end materials, lacking quality manufacturing, and piss poor maintenance. The designs have to overcome all the incompetence and grift downstream. I would assume their best working missiles are in their subs as you can't neglect maintenance in a sub like you can a missile silo in BFE.

Even if there is a 66% failure rate, that just means they send 3 nukes and create two small craters next to one very large crater.

Zobel said:

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It seems like Belarus could either offer a distraction or even deal a sharp blow to Kiev from the west while everything is focused in the east. How many Ukrainian troops are still west of Kiev?

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Why would Belarus want to board a sinking ship at this point? Their best play is to remain neutral...

fullback44 said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

---

Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

---

Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

---

Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

---

what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

Eliminatus said:

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sclaff said:

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Ukraine has finally broken past the stubborn Davydiv Brid. Push is on

KHERSON/ FLASH TRAFFIC/1030 UTC 4 OCT/ At 1000 UTC, developing reports indicate that RU forces have fallen back to shorten their lines S of Novohrednjeve. Partisan reports indicate that RU units are establishing a new defensive line in the vicinity of Mylove. pic.twitter.com/tG4K3tgw6F

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 4, 2022

---

Really interested in the partisan side of the war. I know it is necessarily secret for now but one of the areas I plan to look at closely once this war is over and the true analysis can begin. Directed arty strikes of course implies supplies and coordination with regular forces. Wonder if it is all organic or the Uke SF units. Haven't heard too much from them since the initial days (rightly so) and can easily imagine them of course fulfilling the traditional role of SF of operating behind enemy lines. Either way, more pure gold learning lessons for the US and other observers. Can never have enough real world data in these realms.

---

even BEFORE the war the US media was reporting on Uke SF plans to set up guerilla partisan units. I think we even discussed it on here that they were planning to leave guys behind the lines of Russian advance just to be able to set up an insurgency.

I remember discussions about how the Ukes were going to try to recreate the Iraqi/Afghanistan insurgency against Russia if they were overrun.

GarryowenAg said:

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I don't recall seeing this on the earlier pages, so forgive me if it's already been posted.

Ukraine was modernizing in this direction before the war with its GIS Arta artillery app and its A2AD Adler GMLRS, cruise & tactical ballistic missile families. Western aid is simply taking Ukraine where it wanted to go, faster.

As @konrad_muzyka says regards the Russians. https://t.co/ySp9a25qhn

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) October 3, 2022

This assessment, to me, provides clarity as to why the Ukes have been so efficient with all the aid given to them by various countries, and confirms US and NATO partnerships have proven quite beneficial since it began in 2014.

---

it's a definite 100% guarantee that Russia conscripting middle aged men who haven't been in the military in more than a decade...

will help them to modernize their fighting forces.

(sarcasm off)

one MEEN Ag said:

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Honestly, I would put it at a slim chance that it blows up accidentally on launch. If Russia is going to use one nuke, they'll pick from their most modern stock.

Now if Russia decided it was going to launch their whole salvo to end the world, yeah I would estimate there would be a small percentage of missiles that fail to launch, blow up upon exit, fail guidance to target, or fail to arm the warhead. But enough would work that it wouldn't make a difference.

Also, getting a tactical nuke launched into a neighbor state is less stress on the missile than an ICBM thats gotta go to outer space. So if you're pulling old parts and relying on overcoming corrosion, erosion, and negligence I would assume the shorter range stuff is better suited for launch.

America has been relying on supercomputer simulations and continued validation testing of subassemblies to ensure that its stockpile is ready to go. Slowly updating parts as technology improves. Getting rid of things like tape decks and upgrading guidance systems. I would expect Russia is doing the same.

---

Russia has the capability to fire low yield nuclear weapons without having to use missiles.

the 'Malka" self-propelled artillery piece can fire a nuclear device

LMCane said:

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fullback44 said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

---

Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

---

Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

---

Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

---

what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

---

Because we would retaliate. It would either be an ultimatum to arrest Putin and all of his advisors and give them over to US custody or face a nuclear attack, we take Kaliningrad and send forces into Ukraine/Russia, or a straight nuclear response against a Russian city. There would be catastrophic repercussions.

Quote:

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Explosions reported at Antonivsky bridge in Kherson

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/4-october-explosions-reported-at-antonivsky-bridge-in-kherson

sclaff said:

---

Ukraine has finally broken past the stubborn Davydiv Brid. Push is on

KHERSON/ FLASH TRAFFIC/1030 UTC 4 OCT/ At 1000 UTC, developing reports indicate that RU forces have fallen back to shorten their lines S of Novohrednjeve. Partisan reports indicate that RU units are establishing a new defensive line in the vicinity of Mylove. pic.twitter.com/tG4K3tgw6F

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 4, 2022

---

Just a quick glance at the map, that only seems to be about 15 miles to Mylove? Russia keeps backing up and there is no way there is time to dig in for a good defense. It seems unlikely they already had anything established in this new defense area so I guess this is why the Uke army is attacking, running out of ammo, going back to resupply and then attacking again? Also would make some sense for whatever command is still left in the russian army to say fall back to XXX and defend and these guys know nothing other than to do it no matter what a death trap it is going to be.

Rossticus said:

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NEW: Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around #Lyman and in northern #Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.https://t.co/qCfwrJolCF pic.twitter.com/GwXQBzxI0S

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 4, 2022

---

so let's talk strategy and Corps level staff planning:

in Kherson Oblast, you have the Dnipro river as the southern boundary cutting off the Rus forces.

1. do you continue to move west/south west along the north bank of the Dnipro now that the Ukes have pushed through the initial defense line?

2. or do you send your forces to the west/north west linking up with other Uke forces penetrating south/south east and create a small cauldron of surrounded Russian forces in the eastern part of the occupied zone? that would cleave about 35% of the Russians into a complete encirclement

on the other hand, that would then give the other 65% a chance to create new defense lines (although still encircled around Kherson city)

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

LMCane said:

---

fullback44 said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Private PoopyPants said:

---

The sub carries this supposed cobalt nuclear torpedo which is designed to detonate offshore. The shaped blast would theoretically cause a massive tsunami of radioactive water to engulf a coastal city. Fun times.

---

Theoretically, how massive of a tsunami? 20 feet? 30 feet? 100 feet? What is the yield on that. if you know.

---

Theoretically, the tsunami could be over a kilometer high depending on yield and other factors like seafloor geography and distance from the detonation. That being said, the yield is likely far, far lower. The danger in these things is they travel very slowly and don't make much noise so they are difficult to track until they are close to the target and begin their final acceleration pattern before detonation. The cobalt causes increased radioactive fallout in the water. While an underwater detonation largely protects the surface and atmosphere from radiation, the seabed would be contaminated for decades and the radioactive salts would filter through along the coastline along an extended range.

---

Are the Russians really stupid enough to basically poison the entire Black Sea or the Sea of Azov? They would piss off a lot more people than just the Ukraine, starting with Turkey, Turkey may cut them off completely from using the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits …. It would be load gun, ready, aim, SHOOT… foot falls off

Not to also mention if this tsunami did work and went the wrong direction towards all of Turkeys shorelines… Ruskies would essentially screw themselves

---

what makes you think they would use the Belgorod against Odessa?

could be they use it against New York City or Miami, or Jacksonville, or Charleston.

---

Because we would retaliate. It would either be an ultimatum to arrest Putin and all of his advisors and give them over to US custody or face a nuclear attack, we take Kaliningrad and send forces into Ukraine/Russia, or a straight nuclear response against a Russian city. There would be catastrophic repercussions.

---

The amount of **** you up we'd send at Russia if they nuked one of our cities would be mind boggling. And I'm not talking about nukes. Their military would cease to exist.

If you're going to nuke the US go ahead and nuke it all because one city is just going to piss us off.

I just hope the US has parked ballistic interceptor batteries in Finland/Poland/Alaska as well as ship launched systems in the Mediterranean and Pacific oceans.

Gonzo is coming to terms with it.

RU WarGonzo:
The most difficult time has come...
The situation is difficult both in the north in the Kremennaya-Svatovo and in the south. In the south, judging by the reports, the situation is critical. While we are losing people and territoryhttps://t.co/F84WJkXrb6 pic.twitter.com/pvTBYqMZgP

— I₲ØЯ (@_GIIG_) October 4, 2022

LMCane said:

---

Rossticus said:

---

NEW: Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around #Lyman and in northern #Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among #Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.https://t.co/qCfwrJolCF pic.twitter.com/GwXQBzxI0S

— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) October 4, 2022

---

so let's talk strategy and Corps level staff planning:

in Kherson Oblast, you have the Dnipro river as the southern boundary cutting off the Rus forces.

1. do you continue to move west/south west along the north bank of the Dnipro now that the Ukes have pushed through the initial defense line?

2. or do you send your forces to the west/north west linking up with other Uke forces penetrating south/south east and create a small cauldron of surrounded Russian forces in the eastern part of the occupied zone? that would cleave about 35% of the Russians into a complete encirclement

on the other hand, that would then give the other 65% a chance to create new defense lines (although still encircled around Kherson city)

---

I would continue to fix orc positions on the far western line and continue to push south/west along the Dnipro as they've been doing. A penetration through the middle requires double the troops to provide rear security and the Ukes would basically be opening a third front line for them to defend.