Welcome back knucklehead.Rossticus said:
Hold on to your butts… and hope this proves to be inaccurate.— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 3, 2022
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***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 27 min ago by Ag with kids
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Ukraine needs to keep pushing and keep that entire front off balance. As long as they can keep the movement so dynamic and constant the defenders won't have the logistical capacity and preparation time to counter with a properly prepared and coordinated defense and will risk encirclement if they try to defend without support on flanks.
The Ukrainians really have them reeling and Russia is very debilitated by its command void and logistical limitations. The faster the front moves, the worse bit gets for them, unless they concede a huge piece of territory for time to build a more prepared defensive line.
The Ukrainians have relatively little to fear in overextending as long as they remain mobile. They can outmaneuver or bypass threats as long as their own logistical tail can meet needs.
Looks like a Russia needs a civilian evacuation of Svatove and that can be for many reasons: minimize blame for casualties on an artillery heavy defense, or mingle with civilians in withdrawal to avoid being targeted, or to get the civilians out of the way now so they can avoid getting tangled with civilians in withdrawal, or possibly they do intend to fight a house to house defense there to buy time.
The Ukrainians really have them reeling and Russia is very debilitated by its command void and logistical limitations. The faster the front moves, the worse bit gets for them, unless they concede a huge piece of territory for time to build a more prepared defensive line.
The Ukrainians have relatively little to fear in overextending as long as they remain mobile. They can outmaneuver or bypass threats as long as their own logistical tail can meet needs.
Looks like a Russia needs a civilian evacuation of Svatove and that can be for many reasons: minimize blame for casualties on an artillery heavy defense, or mingle with civilians in withdrawal to avoid being targeted, or to get the civilians out of the way now so they can avoid getting tangled with civilians in withdrawal, or possibly they do intend to fight a house to house defense there to buy time.
Rossticus said:
Hold on to your butts… and hope this proves to be inaccurate.— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 3, 2022
to acknowledge putins postiom, it's this or he gets pushed out of Ukraine all together.
Using a nuke will draw in the all the west and ww3 is probably on. Russia will cease to exist as Russia does now, putin will be dead, and who could guess what else happens.
Civilian evacuation for relocated Russians? Locals can stay - but transplants on a mission from Moscow need to be herded back.
Still completely amazed that a nation with such a long border with the other struggles so much with logistics. Plenty of wide open relatively flat space to open alternate logistical flows. The space is there for Russia to do something - yet they can't so far. And it does seem as if they are about to collapse in the north. And is the use of a nuke a threat to the west or just as mich a threat to his own troops?
Still completely amazed that a nation with such a long border with the other struggles so much with logistics. Plenty of wide open relatively flat space to open alternate logistical flows. The space is there for Russia to do something - yet they can't so far. And it does seem as if they are about to collapse in the north. And is the use of a nuke a threat to the west or just as mich a threat to his own troops?
it's amazing that it took the Russkies literally two months of bitter daily combat to take Severdonetsk and Lysichansk (an advance of ten miles)92AG10 said:Waffledynamics said:
Maybe it's because I'm looking at it on my phone, but isn't the first part the Kharkiv offensive from a month ago?
This is basically the area of the map with Slovyansk at the bottom left:
and they may be about to lose them after a 7 day counter-offensive.
The threat of WWIII is overblown.
If a nuke is used even the Chinese would join NATO in carving up Russia into a thousand pieces to be scattered to the wind. The Chinese know they would also be targeted by our response if a full nuclear exchange were to commence so they may as well join in the great game rather than die on the sidelines.
If a nuke is used even the Chinese would join NATO in carving up Russia into a thousand pieces to be scattered to the wind. The Chinese know they would also be targeted by our response if a full nuclear exchange were to commence so they may as well join in the great game rather than die on the sidelines.
Ag In Ok said:
Civilian evacuation for relocated Russians? Locals can stay - but transplants on a mission from Moscow need to be herded back.
Still completely amazed that a nation with such a long border with the other struggles so much with logistics. Plenty of wide open relatively flat space to open alternate logistical flows. The space is there for Russia to do something - yet they can't so far. And it does seem as if they are about to collapse in the north. And is the use of a nuke a threat to the west or just as mich a threat to his own troops?
There's a post several pages back about how much alleged corruption has undercut the Russian military.
BlackGoldAg2011 said:Yea, I guess despite there being an overwhelming body of evidence saying this won't happen, there is a small part of me (probably the part that has been conditioned by watching Aggie football), that keeps half expecting Russia to get their act together and catch the Ukes over extended on one of these pushes and slam the door behind them.oldmanguy said:The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.BlackGoldAg2011 said:
I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.
The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.
Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.
that's not going to happen- if the Russkies were capable of such an action they would have done it already as there have been multiple times they could have caught the Ukes in flank attacks.
the most likely scenario is that the Ukes will continue to press East, and as the weather turns worse and the Mobiks start to deploy ... within a few weeks the offensive will slow and trench warfare will start to develop along the entire front (hopefully now to the east of Lysychansk)
Russia pumping more gas into the sabotaged pipelines? INVESTIGATION
Perhaps and I tend to agree China would probably not end up on russias side.
But, would they try and use the chaos to gain position in the indo Pacifica? In India?
Using a nuke will demand a response from the west. It will increase pressure on all nations but not all nations will view it solely as stopping a rogue nation. Some will use it to their advantage. That's where the risk will be.
But, would they try and use the chaos to gain position in the indo Pacifica? In India?
Using a nuke will demand a response from the west. It will increase pressure on all nations but not all nations will view it solely as stopping a rogue nation. Some will use it to their advantage. That's where the risk will be.
Don't ruin this thread with that crap. There's like 1000 other threads devoted to it.
From your link.
If there is still gas in the pipeline, isn't that doubly dangerous?
If there is still gas in the pipeline, isn't that doubly dangerous?
The nuclear spade would have been played, next stop - the intersection of Pakistan, China, and India in the Jammu/Khasmir/Ladakh. Strategically this would be a huge, huge mistake for Russia. Slim chance at the end of this the russian federation is turned over, NATO is stronger, and BRICS is in civil war. And it could come down to what some brigade commanders can do on three fronts.
Probably, but I'm sure the submersible will stand off from any gas plume while recording the damage.
Ukraine-Russia Peace:
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Uhm, don't think the Ukes will respond well to that.
🇺🇦🇹🇷 У Туреччині відбулася зустріч героїв «Азовсталі» з сім'ями. Про це повідомила перша леді України Олена Зеленська
— Асоціація родин захисників «Азовсталі» (@AzovstalFam) October 3, 2022
Деталі: https://t.co/VASpMe9UXM pic.twitter.com/8mOmBt42PY
Quote:
A meeting of the heroes of "Azovstal" with their families took place in Turkey. The First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, announced this
Translation?
Thanks 
I pop in and out. Life got bonkers so my posting necessarily fell off cliff. Everyone has done a fantastic job of keeping this thread going with great info and insight.
I pop in and out. Life got bonkers so my posting necessarily fell off cliff. Everyone has done a fantastic job of keeping this thread going with great info and insight. aggiehawg said:Ukraine-Russia Peace:
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Uhm, don't think the Ukes will respond well to that.
Which @elonmusk do you like more?
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 3, 2022
Rossticus said:
Thanks
Glad to see ya still kicking. We have been wondering. A few really stepped up to fill your shoes. I also had major life changes and my posting and research on this topic has also fallen dramatically. Thankfully this thread is the best resource I have found by far, thanks to everyone's contributions and care. Only so many hours in a day I have found.
Also a shout out to Staff. Problems are quickly and diligently fixed to keep this thing on track.
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
aggiehawg said:
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
So damn cringey.
I truly wish billionaire businessman would stop trying to be statesmen. Be one or the other.
Elon was damn near a deity in Ukraine until he spouted this ignorant take of unicorn dreams. Not a good look when the Pres of the nation you have been helping feels obligated to make a joke of you.
The Ukes have said unconditionally from practically day one that the "annexed" lands are their territory wrongfully taken through force by Russia. Since Feb. I wholeheartedly agree. Same with Crimea. How can Elon not read the room on this?
Also, wonder if this spat will change anything resource wise. Even now, there is zero doubt that Elons support for the Ukes has been key in several areas. Especially Starlink. I don't think Elon is petty enough to stop but with billionaires, who really knows?
aggiehawg said:
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
Ukrainian president, not diplomat.
I was referring to this:
LINKQuote:
The billionaire's comments ignited a torrent of criticism online, including from Andrij Melnyk, Ukraine's former Ambassador to Germany, who lashed out at Musk with expletive-laced insults about Musk's business.
"F*** off is my very diplomatic reply to you," Melnyk said in a Tweet. "The only outcome [is] that now no Ukrainian will EVER buy your f…ing tesla crap. So good luck to you [sic]."
Diplomat, not Ukrainian president.FTACof2011 said:aggiehawg said:
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
Ukrainian president, not diplomat.
MELNYK
The first official response was from (I believe) Ukraine's ambassador to Germany. It really did say F--k off.FTACof2011 said:aggiehawg said:
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
Ukrainian president, not diplomat.
Has will only explode and burn at the correct concentrations and pressures with oxygen present. Stoichiometry.
Thanks for the clarification. Appreciate it.MouthBQ98 said:
Has will only explode and burn at the correct concentrations and pressures with oxygen present. Stoichiometry.
Eliminatus said:aggiehawg said:
Ukrainian diplomat tells Musk to "F-off."
So damn cringey.
I truly wish billionaire businessman would stop trying to be statesmen. Be one or the other.
Elon was damn near a deity in Ukraine until he spouted this ignorant take of unicorn dreams. Not a good look when the Pres of the nation you have been helping feels obligated to make a joke of you.
The Ukes have said unconditionally from practically day one that the "annexed" lands are their territory wrongfully taken through force by Russia. Since Feb. I wholeheartedly agree. Same with Crimea. How can Elon not read the room on this?
Also, wonder if this spat will change anything resource wise. Even now, there is zero doubt that Elons support for the Ukes has been key in several areas. Especially Starlink. I don't think Elon is petty enough to stop but with billionaires, who really knows?
Elon may just be looking at the world economy and wanting things to get back to normal so sectors that he needs to further enrich himself can start sooner than later. He wouldn't be helping Ukraine if he had any love for Putin, but he didn't get to where he is by putting others before himself, so this just sounds like a typical guy who puts the "I" in team.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
I think these couple of posts nailed it. The Ukes are operating with these small, mobile strike teams that have decision making at a much lower tier than the Russians. They roll in hard and fast and Russians don't have the command response necessary to deal with it. Its over before the communication relay between command can be completed.lb3 said:It really does sounds like chaos.oldmanguy said:The Ukes are using small units to haul ass and get behind. It's even way more decentralized than anything we would ever do, it's bordering on chaotic. But riding the edge of effective and chaos is working because the Ukes have good communication.BlackGoldAg2011 said:
I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.
The Russians, on the other hand, don't use the restroom without permission. They have poor/no comms and what comms they do have seem to be open for everyone to listen to. The Russians have never been good at high speed high maneuverability and they are literally getting leapfrogged to death.
Worse yet, the only way to halt this from happening over and over again would be to fall back a good bit, form some steady lines, and regroup/rearm. The russians won't do that.
The best I can tell from some of the personal accounts I've read, Ukrainian platoon sized elements are basically operating independently. They advance to contact, engage, and either pin the defenders in place while they call in an artillery strike, or pursue when the defenders break off contact. Once they run out of ammo, food, or other supplies, they head back to the rear to get resupplied then return to the front when ready.
The Ukrainians have developed a strategery (thanks dub) in which they have delegated tactical command decisions to such a low level that they can act and react well within the turn around time of Russian comms and can maneuver to positions inside Russia's artillery's precision.
Basically, the Russians don't have time to employ reserves to reinforce units under attack and can't employ their overwhelming but imprecise artillery without saturating their own positions. Without improved comms and precise indirect fire, the Ukes are basically running up the score on the way to a 77-0 style rout of the orcs.
ETA: here is a reenactment of a large orc cows getting swarmed by Uke flys.
Elon is looking out for number 1. Building batteries would be a ***** without russian resources and zero environmental concerns on extraction.
A lot of new names on this thread have caused a serious derailment. Ya'll go start another thread to debate on Elon's business practices.
Can we bring back the exported Ukrainians, and eject the imported Russians first?aggiehawg said:Ukraine-Russia Peace:
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2022
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Uhm, don't think the Ukes will respond well to that.
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