RONA Ag said:

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sclaff said:

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How have we for years just so drastically overvalued Russia's military capabilities?

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Have we also drastically overvalued/overestimated their nuclear capabilities?

Red Pear Realty said:

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⚡️US Senator fears Russia may hit weapon supply center in Poland.

Marco Rubio told CNN that if Putin decides he can lose the war because of the Western weapon supplies to Ukraine, he could strike at logistic centers “where these supplies are coming through," including Poland.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 2, 2022

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Do it, let's light this candle. There's no way in hell that Putin actually does this. A direct conflict with NATO is his death sentence and he knows it

Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk. They spend days & nights in the open field, eat what they have & drink. No command, no uniform, no barracks, no tents, no sleeping bags. pic.twitter.com/HWmDVa5EHV

— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) October 3, 2022

Seems like some backtracking. How about the borders go back to pre-2014?

#BREAKING Kremlin says Russia will 'consult' with local populations of two Ukraine regions that Moscow annexed last week, to determine exact borders of regions to be integrated into Russia pic.twitter.com/hqA6J915J9

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) October 3, 2022

I guess it's fairly obvious Russia has actually spent a fraction of it's supposed defense budget on actual defense things and the rest into oligarchs pockets after saying it was for defense

Apart from pressing south along the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian Army is also advancing from the West, having reached the village of Chkalove.

The Russian forces are once again under threat of encirclement as the Ukrainians go for another pincer maneuver.

🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/RlMndXcBok

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 3, 2022

sclaff said:

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Apart from pressing south along the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian Army is also advancing from the West, having reached the village of Chkalove.

The Russian forces are once again under threat of encirclement as the Ukrainians go for another pincer maneuver.

🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/RlMndXcBok

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 3, 2022

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This is starting to turn into a game of Risk but playing against an 8 year old. It has to be full on flight or surrender for them to be moving this fast. 10 years from now this will be fascinating reading.

10 years? It may be fascinating reading by next summer at this rate.

It's been fascinating reading pretty much since the beginning. Thank you all for your contributions to this thread!

People are fascinated with how skilful UA Forces proved in manoeuvre warfare trying to envelop/cut enemy GLOCs with deep flanking strikes saving cities/lives. This is huge contrast with “RU way of warfare” with slow frontal assaults and almost complete destruction of settlements.

— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) October 3, 2022

Good summary of the war for months now.

I translated that as dissent is coming up from the talking heads. Inevitable.

I assumed it meant that the Russian media and milbloggers who previously had nothing but praise and good reports for Russia and its denazification have started to turn on the state a bit. Basically, the "Russian Information Space" is the space where it controls the narrative. And the failures in both the mobilization and the loss of annexed territory have cause Russia to start losing control of the narrative even internally.

agent-maroon said:

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Private PoopyPants said:

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The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment that Russia's loss of Donetsk Oblast's Lyman, combined with the Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively is "fundamentally changing the Russian information space."

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 3, 2022

Experts say that the Kremlin-sponsored media and milbloggers are criticizing the bureaucratic failures of the partial mobilization and attributing the defeat around Lyman and Kharkiv Oblast to🇷🇺military failures to properly supply and reinforce Russian forces in northern Donbas.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 3, 2022

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What is meant by the "fundamentally changing the Russian information space." phrasing?

Thank you in advance

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I think it means they lost so bad that even their paid mouthpieces in the media and specifically social media are speaking out against them.

I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

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Kind of like in football you can keep using the same play that is working well until the other team stops you.

No Spin Ag said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Teslag said:

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10 years? It may be fascinating reading by next summer at this rate.

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True, but a real comprehensive book with eye witness accounts both military and civilian will take some time. Even 5 years based on this thing still unfolding. Imagine the details about the russian equipment, soldiers and command.

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Whenever it comes out, the failure of Putin's invasion will be a great read that'll be read my many throughout the world as an example of what happens when a tinpot dictator tries to bully someone that punches back.

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I think more than anything this is direct proof that Soviet style communism just doesn't work. Sure, you can somewhat run a country like that. But just like how it makes your economy suffer it also makes your military suffer as well. And it's not just because of the corruption, but also because of the lack of trust, accountability, responsibility, innovation, etc. NOTHING good comes from communism...unless you are one of the communists in charge and are in on the grift.

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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I'll add that I'm also fascinated by Russia's complete failure to adapt/respond to UA tactics. The number of times we've seen that exact same maneuver show up on the map and be successful is honestly quite astonishing. I'm no military strategist, but I would think against any competent military, there would be a limit to the number of times the same tactic can be successful.

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It's not really tactical. This has been a basic part of strategic warfare since forever. Whether you believe the modern armored version is a Guderian invention or not his disciples used it time and time again on the Eastern front. Zhukov and Patton used the same thing against capable commanders as well. This is all dictated by terrain and the correlation of forces. You can't defend every piece of terrain in equal strength. Bypassing significant defenses and population centers which tend to be at cross roads to control the enemies logistics and force them to abandon positions of strength has been a part of mobile warfare in Europe stretching back to before the Roman empire. Modern armor makes it a bit faster but from cavalry to cataphracts to British lancers and German Panzer divisions, this has been basic strategy for millennia. It's effective and it is hard to defend against without either effective close air support, massive artillery base or flexible and ready mobile reserves.