***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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CondensedFogAggie
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4:13p, 10/2/22

Part of Zelenskys speech/address:
Quote:
Peoples of the Caucasus!

Now I am in that part of Kyiv, where Imam Shamil, the hero of Dagestan and the entire Caucasus, lived in the 1860s. As you can see, Ukraine knows how to honor your heroes. We preserve the memory of those places that combined the cultures of our peoples.

This is the center of our capital. One of the hundreds of Ukrainian cities against which the Russian authorities direct missiles, bombs and troops. The Caucasus knows what this means. The Caucasus saw it.

For 218 days, we have been defending ourselves against those who have more missiles and people than we do, but who are completely devoid of decency. This is a vile war on the part of Russia, a criminal one. And we do everything to protect our people and the independence of Ukraine. This is our sacred duty. Duty to our parents. Duty to our children. Duty to all generations of our people - those who lived and those who will live on our land. We don't need what's not ours!

.

Peoples of the Caucasus! All peoples on the territory of Russia! You have no reason to be among these many who still serve the one who wants this war. You do not have to die in Ukraine. Your sons do not have to die in Ukraine. You have no such obligation. Not to your parents, not to your children, not to your future, not to the future of your land. And you know it.

.

Ukraine will continue to defend itself and will win in this war waged against us. Because we are on our land. The truth is on our side. And the whole civilized world is with us. We are fighting for what is true for any people on the planet - for life and freedom, for the right to happiness for all our families, for all our children.

[Continued...]
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:19p, 10/2/22

How many flanking maneuvers by the Ukrainians so far?
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:26p, 10/2/22
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Ulysses90
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In reply to GAC06 • 4:33p, 10/2/22
AG
I don't believe that's true at this point. Even if NATO is scared of the implications of a total defeat of Russian forces on Ukrainian soil, the Ukes have captured enough weapons, ammo, and fuel from the Russians to push on without NATO supplies. Cutting off ISR feeds to Ukraine would/will hurt them more than cutting off supplies but I still don't think that amounts to a leash on their neck. If Elon turns off Starlink then that might be enough. I don't believe the Ukrainians are going to give the Russians a face saving negotiated peace.

There will be consequences bit they are prepared to accept that. Besides, NATO may control th flow o modern weapons and ISR to Ukraine but the Blue Checkmarks with Ukraine flags in theor profile control global opinion and Zelenskyy seems to have the Blue Checkmarkssecurely in his pocket.
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:36p, 10/2/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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4:51p, 10/2/22

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Waffledynamics
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4:53p, 10/2/22
AG
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FarmerFran
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 5:00p, 10/2/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


This is big news. Ukraine really need to invest in its navy . Becoming a power in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea will make it extremely difficult for Russia to hold Crimea
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CondensedFogAggie
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5:03p, 10/2/22

Really casual about it too.



Quote:
Quote:
- they are in cellar.
- hrynia (a nickname), are they in the cellar?
- yeah
- here i have another one (grenade)
- how many are there?
- ****
<another grenade goes boom>
- did you film it?
- no
- why didn't you?
- where are the grenade launchers, guys? take em
- here
- cover me
- did you take the trophies they left us?
- ****ing ****, blyat
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AgLA06
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 5:17p, 10/2/22
AG
Ulysses90 said:
I don't believe that's true at this point. Even if NATO is scared of the implications of a total defeat of Russian forces on Ukrainian soil, the Ukes have captured enough weapons, ammo, and fuel from the Russians to push on without NATO supplies. Cutting off ISR feeds to Ukraine would/will hurt them more than cutting off supplies but I still don't think that amounts to a leash on their neck. If Elon turns off Starlink then that might be enough. I don't believe the Ukrainians are going to give the Russians a face saving negotiated peace.

There will be consequences bit they are prepared to accept that. Besides, NATO may control th flow o modern weapons and ISR to Ukraine but the Blue Checkmarks with Ukraine flags in theor profile control global opinion and Zelenskyy seems to have the Blue Checkmarkssecurely in his pocket.


And I don't believe for a second nearby countries like Poland would agree to cut Ukraine off. It's just not in their best interest.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 5:38p, 10/2/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:

How long has this little beauty been in the works? Any idea of other vessels nearing completion?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Ghost of Andrew Eaton
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In reply to GAC06 • 5:47p, 10/2/22
GAC06 said:
agent-maroon said:
Quote:
Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
Better run that past the Ukes because I'm not so sure that they'll go for that deal.


In the hypothetical situation where we wanted Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, it doesn't really matter what Ukraine wants. If the US and NATO want a ceasefire and are willing to stop the aid, that's it.


So we reward Russia's bad behavior?
If you say you hate the state of politics in this nation and you don't get involved in it, you obviously don't hate the state of politics in this nation.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to GAC06 • 5:56p, 10/2/22
AG
GAC06 said:
agent-maroon said:
Quote:
Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
Better run that past the Ukes because I'm not so sure that they'll go for that deal.


In the hypothetical situation where we wanted Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, it doesn't really matter what Ukraine wants. If the US and NATO want a ceasefire and are willing to stop the aid, that's it.


I concur poland, romania, others won't care if rest of world seeks ceasefire favorable to russia in crimea. There are certainly some darkside deals being discussed but the blowing of the pipelines to Germany likely busted a few of those (quite stupid of russia if in fact it was them) and Turkey has openly postured itself in favor of Crimea returning to Ukraine. This alone may be the deciding factor in a complex manner. The navy ship gift is also telling.

Ultimately I would like to see all of Ukrainian returned especially the south including Crimiea. As for russia retaining anything the Ukes might offer up part of the east or northeast demilitarized or even the southeast portion of crimea again demilitarized but it looks like a good bit of crappy land. If russia really wants crimea it may have to offer zelensky in an internationally brokered deal for free gas for the next X years in reparations, which of course should not be trusted.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to Ghost of Andrew Eaton • 5:59p, 10/2/22
AG
Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:
GAC06 said:
agent-maroon said:
Quote:
Ultimately I believe Ukrainian will take back ground on the south side of the Dnipro in the south, but as soon as they do I predict russia will call for cease fire to retain crimea and likely get enough global support to retain most of their 2014 land theft.
Better run that past the Ukes because I'm not so sure that they'll go for that deal.


In the hypothetical situation where we wanted Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, it doesn't really matter what Ukraine wants. If the US and NATO want a ceasefire and are willing to stop the aid, that's it.


So we reward Russia's bad behavior?


Thats exactly how we got here in the first place 2014…..russia is paying for it now big time but unfortunately so have the Ukes.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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GAC06
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In reply to Ghost of Andrew Eaton • 6:03p, 10/2/22
AG
Don't read into what I said any more than what I actually said. In the hypothetical situation where the US/NATO decides the war should stop, it will stop. Ukraine cannot continue without us.
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AgLA06
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In reply to GAC06 • 6:05p, 10/2/22
AG
It looks like hypothetically most disagree with you.
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GAC06
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In reply to AgLA06 • 6:07p, 10/2/22
AG
They hypothetically disagree with me? Or they actually disagree?

Without our money, ammunition, weapons, intel…. Ukraine is done. I'm not advocating this, I'm not predicting this. This was in response to the poster saying Ukraine may not agree to a negotiated ceasefire. It's not up to them.
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Ghost of Andrew Eaton
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In reply to GAC06 • 6:13p, 10/2/22
GAC06 said:
Don't read into what I said any more than what I actually said. In the hypothetical situation where the US/NATO decides the war should stop, it will stop. Ukraine cannot continue without us.
Fair enough. I can see how I misunderstood your post. Apologies.
If you say you hate the state of politics in this nation and you don't get involved in it, you obviously don't hate the state of politics in this nation.
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Waffledynamics
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6:22p, 10/2/22
AG
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lb3
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6:40p, 10/2/22
AG






Everyone piles on in the comments:






eBay maybe?

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sclaff
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6:51p, 10/2/22
AG
So true

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Flying Crowbar
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6:54p, 10/2/22
AG
How does a three-day special military operation create an 800-page thread? Boggles the mind.

Russia may someday replace France as the punchline for military prowess jokes.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to GAC06 • 7:00p, 10/2/22
AG
GAC06 said:
They hypothetically disagree with me? Or they actually disagree?

Without our money, ammunition, weapons, intel…. Ukraine is done. I'm not advocating this, I'm not predicting this. This was in response to the poster saying Ukraine may not agree to a negotiated ceasefire. It's not up to them.
Do you believe that Ukraine wouldn't continue to press the fight until they couldn't defend themselves? And that we would just say "too bad" at that point and hang them out to dry? You're entitled to your opinion and you might be absolutely correct, but I really don't think we've spent billions and provided the support that we have just to return to the status quo. We would be doing this all over again within a decade if we did.

But I might be wrong.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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GAC06
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In reply to agent-maroon • 7:22p, 10/2/22
AG
IF we decided to pursue a negotiated peace, Ukraine would have no option but to go along. That's the way it is, but hopefully Ukraine will reclaim its territory. Let's focus back on the updates as I didn't intend this to derail
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sclaff
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7:23p, 10/2/22
AG


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FarmerFran
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In reply to sclaff • 7:26p, 10/2/22
AG
sclaff said:




How have we for years just so drastically overvalued Russia's military capabilities?

These breakdowns and the stupidity of some of these things coming out about the Russian military defy all logic.
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to FarmerFran • 7:30p, 10/2/22
AG
I was shocked at the beginning of all of this that they were using off the shelf unencrypted comms. I don't know if it is a matter of having eyes on internal reports and taking them at face value or if it is a matter of thinking there is no way that the Russians would be that inept/corrupt. But it has been amazing and flabbergasting to watch
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DapperDanMan
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7:33p, 10/2/22
AG
Not trying to derail, I don't contribute here, but I'm constantly lurking on this page more than anywhere else on TexAgs. I want to say thanks to all those that constantly post the updates here.
800 pages and 4+ million page views is pretty awesome! No one is blue star mining and there's not a lot of gotcha comments. Just a bunch of people trying to share information on something that we've all become so interested and invested in.
Thanks to all!
Slava Ukraini!
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FarmerFran
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In reply to DapperDanMan • 7:50p, 10/2/22
AG
DapperDanMan said:
Not trying to derail, I don't contribute here, but I'm constantly lurking on this page more than anywhere else on TexAgs. I want to say thanks to all those that constantly post the updates here.
800 pages and 4+ million page views is pretty awesome! No one is blue star mining and there's not a lot of gotcha comments. Just a bunch of people trying to share information on something that we've all become so interested and invested in.
Thanks to all!


Concur completely, especially with how football season is trending I find myself coming to Texags more for this thread and all the content posted than anything else.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:05p, 10/2/22
AG
I agree been chasing elk since 23 pages back, here is a good Segue to continue on Maintenance and replacement. Maybe Ulysees90 or 740A can comment on or link info on this as we have been seeing more and more reports on barrel failures and repair sites, due to fire rates not seen since I am not sure when likely WWIi. I have not read the new aid package but convinced the new HIMARS and package contain alot of replacement/maintenance resources. We are getting first hand accurate useful life data out of our own arms and curious what that is compared to forcasted.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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lb3
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In reply to lb3 • 8:05p, 10/2/22
AG
lb3 said:
Russians burying naval mines? Seems like an in efficient use of high explosives to pack so closely together.

Apparently they buried these sea mines for a Tic-Tok video showing that they too can blow up ammo dumps.
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Bird Poo
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In reply to FarmerFran • 8:11p, 10/2/22
AG
RONA Ag said:
sclaff said:




How have we for years just so drastically overvalued Russia's military capabilities?

These breakdowns and the stupidity of some of these things coming out about the Russian military defy all logic.


To keep the $$$$$$ flowing.
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AgLA06
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In reply to lb3 • 8:17p, 10/2/22
AG
lb3 said:
lb3 said:
Russians burying naval mines? Seems like an in efficient use of high explosives to pack so closely together.

Apparently they buried these sea mines for a Tic-Tok video showing that they too can blow up ammo dumps.


Wonder if they got that idea from blowing up Nordstream pipelines with them.

Fits the thousands of pounds of tnt report.
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:33p, 10/2/22

*** Posting obscene material is out of bounds. You know that -- Staff ***
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Waffledynamics
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9:32p, 10/2/22
AG


At 4:02, he mentions the footage of drunk Russians, and like me, he's been skeptical that they're legitimate. Apparently, the Russian State TV admits they're real, and they suggest it's intentional.

7:34, Russian TV apparently opines that Ukraine will... declare war on Russia? They distinctly say this is somehow different from Ukraine hitting Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk for some reason.

At about 9:18, one of the Russian TV mouthpieces starts throwing cold water on the ideas of the other propagandists, point out the disasters of such places like Lyman. In fact, he just plain calls them out on national TV. I'll be surprised if we see him again.

At 11:15: we see an awkward exchange in which a supposed military expert states he cannot explain the loss of Lyman. At 12:50, they cut him off with "technical difficulties", lol.

At 14:50, we hear a phone call between a Russian soldier encircled in Lyman and his wife in Russia. It's a bit heartbreaking.

At 18:25, we get into map updates.
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