too bad they didn't finish the job. These a-holes are all complicit with Putin now that he has escalated.Private PoopyPants said:The General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine reports that Major General Tsokov, commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th All-#Russian Army, was wounded near Svatovo, #Luhansk region. pic.twitter.com/K5Qez9Qw6Z
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 23, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Prisoner Putin would be a constant diplomatic problem and all kinds of other issues. Putin needs to fall out of a window in Russia.
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As expected, Ukrainian prisoners not receiving proper care by Russians.
This breaks about 15 different articles of treaties governing the laws of war. https://t.co/RujGKPgcyz
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 23, 2022
Interesting thread on how the black market in draft deferrals will significantly alter the power dynamics in Russia. From simple bribes to recruiters and doctors for get out of Ukraine free cards to plant managers in 'critical' industries exerting influence over workers who may otherwise be subject to the draft, to even bureaucrats having influence over which manufacturing plants get contracts and permits.
A few quick thoughts on some stuff getting lost in the noise on Russian mobilization
— Pwn All The Things (@pwnallthethings) September 22, 2022
#Turkey considers it necessary to abolish the right of veto in the #UN Security Council
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 23, 2022
Earlier, the United States and #Ukraine spoke out for this. pic.twitter.com/5V2zhF5xBY
Ulysses90 said:That's not a rational comparison of the Chinese breaking the 7th ID. The Chinese 9th Army Group was a combat proven in the civil war and a year earlier had defeated the Kuomintang. Because this Army could not stand still and could not be garrisoned, it marched for the entire year from the defeat of the Kuomintang until it crossed the Yalu into North Korea in Nov 1950. Many of them were veterans of the fight against the Japanese. They had recent combat experience and they had been victorious.lb3 said:The Chinese actually broke the 7th Infantry Division so don't count on the Ukes being able to hold the line against a million strong wave attack when outnumbered 12:1.LMCane said:the US Army fought off a million screaming Chinese in 1950.CondensedFoggyAggie said:
By the way, I might be here watching from afar, but I can't imagine the trepidation Ukrainians must be feeling.
Yes these are underequipped, undersupplied, undertrained non-existent morale having cannon fodder that will eventually be slaughtered or die of frostbite, but it's still a huge number of humans coming your way.
I hope every day the rest of the world is stockpiling more and more arms and supplies into the Ukraine.
a well trained and disciplined force can handle raw recruits in suicide wave attacks.
all these newbie conscripts can get taken out by HIMARs even before they start running across a field.
Luckily the Ukes can employ a defense in depth strategy to check the orcs should the Russians actually have the logistics necessary to commit a million armed and trained troops to the battle.
The Russian conscript Army are recent civilians that have been torn away from home and are going to be pushed into a fight a matter of weeks. If it isn't a matter of weeks until they are sent to combat then it will be too late and the Russian Army will have to invade Ukraine for a second time.
Russia has no cadre left to train the conscripts. Their logistics are worse and winter is coming. A million man Army can barely load enough food by hand working around the clock just to feed itself. In what remains of the Donbas that is still in Russian hands, the living accommodations suck and that is before they are shelled by the Ukrainians. The Russian army leaders were never good but most of those at the Company level and below are dead or wounded. Their weapons are trashed and they are sending museum pieces into combat.
Russia has a tradition of sending soldiers to combat with one rifle for every third soldier and I have no doubt that they will try it again. However, they are not pursuing an exhausted enemy wit its own shattered logistics training retreating across hundreds of miles of steppe. The Russian horde will be sending undertrained and ill-equipped troops into the attack against extremely well trained and equipped Ukrainians who are fighting for their existence as a nation.
The Russians will not be able to employ human wave attacks like the PLA or the Inmun Gun. These are demoralized people who hate Putin and after being conscripted that hate may overcome their fear of him. Mutinies will be common. All the intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers make it clear that the RF forces are already at a breaking point.
you raise a point I have been pondering-
Putin seems to be repeating the exact strategy as Czar Nicholas II did in 1916 during the Brusilov offensive:
The Brusilov offensive (Russian: Brusilovski proryv, literally: "Brusilov's breakthrough"), also known as the "June advance" of June to September 1916 was the Russian Empire's greatest feat of arms during World War I, and among the most lethal offensives in world history.
The historian Graydon Tunstall called the Brusilov offensive the worst crisis of World War I for Austria-Hungary and the Triple Entente's greatest victory, but it came at a tremendous loss of life.
The heavy casualties eliminated the offensive power of the Imperial Russian Army and contributed to Russia's collapse the next year.
This would be a mistake in my opinion. Long term the US veto has prevented mob rule when it comes to Israel and other pro western interests.Private PoopyPants said:#Turkey considers it necessary to abolish the right of veto in the #UN Security Council
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 23, 2022
Earlier, the United States and #Ukraine spoke out for this. pic.twitter.com/5V2zhF5xBY
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
They also could form the cadre of revolutionary mutineers who utterly destroy the Red Army from within.CondensedFoggyAggie said:
'It's a 100% mobilisation': day one of Russia's drive to build its army
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-mobilisation-ukraine-war-army-driveQuote:
One woman in a small village in the Zakamensky region of Buryatia, in eastern Siberia, said she first felt something was amiss when the dogs began barking about midnight. In a community of 450 people, the village head was walking from house to house, seeking to hand out more than 20 draft notices.
"It's not a partial mobilisation, it's a 100% mobilisation," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an activist group that has reported on the draft in the region. In the past day, she said, she and her colleagues had received and identified more than 3,000 reports of povestka, or draft papers, being delivered in Buryatia within just 24 hours
One woman said a 52-year-old relative had been delivered a povestka
"'Don't you have five children?' they asked him. My husband laughed and said 'yes, five kids'. 'Well, OK, expect your draft papers,'" she said.
Video and anecdotal evidence from around Russia has shown large drafts taking place even in small towns, suggesting that the numbers could be far higher.[than 300,000]
In Neryungri, the second largest town in Sakha, also known as Yakutia, video footage appeared to show dozens of men being gathered at the Gornyak football stadium and loaded onto buses bound for recruitment centres, as family members bid tearful farewells. Many of the men appeared to be in their 30s and 40s.
In Moscow, police officers reportedly began giving draft notices to those they detained at the protest.
Among them was Artem Krieger, a young reporter for the Sota Vision news outlet, who was detained despite being there to cover the protests.
"All the men, absolutely everyone, was given a draft notice," said Krieger
The breadth of the mobilisation across Russia is staggering. One video showed more than 100 potential draftees lined up behind an An-12 plane at an airport in Khurba in the far-eastern Khabarovsk region.
Obviously most of us do not think much of these conscripts, but the scope is staggering. They may very well conscript well over 300,000 men.
And yes while many will desert, mutiny, riot, surrender etc, many will take orders and fight with whatever weapons they have, which will result in Ukrainian casualties.
apparently Putin has never heard of the "Russian Revolution"
that thread is good read and here is the most critical point and why Putin has "raised the stakes" with mobilizationlb3 said:
Interesting thread on how the black market in draft deferrals will significantly alter the power dynamics in Russia. From simple bribes to recruiters and doctors for get out of Ukraine free cards to plant managers in 'critical' industries exerting influence over workers who may otherwise be subject to the draft, to even bureaucrats having influence over which manufacturing plants get contracts and permits.
Concretely, that means Western allies need a defense industrial policy that supports material assistance in the medium-term, and should not expect the war to end. Similarly, countries who are waiting for the war to end and "get back to normal" shouldn't hold their breath.
— Pwn All The Things (@pwnallthethings) September 22, 2022
They are going to see if the west has the stomach for the long fight. Lots of dollars and arms are going to be needed just while western economies are floundering
no one has mentioned this yet- but on one of the Youtube Uke war channels the guy (former Marine Sniper) stated that in all of Russia..CondensedFoggyAggie said:Putin's #mobilization self-own: Employees at the Khrunichev State Space Research and Production Center in #Moscow (you know - rockets, missiles, ICBMs) are getting conscripted. The staff of this strategic plant is freaking out. pic.twitter.com/PQ4QEwV1XD
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) September 22, 2022Meanwhile, it only took a few hours for another group of mobilised Russians to get dead drunk. "What are we going for? Where are going? F*ck knows!", one concludes. pic.twitter.com/8XUP4UNbFP
— Tadeusz Giczan (@TadeuszGiczan) September 22, 2022
Is anyone surprised by anything coming out of Russia these days.
there is ONE Army basic training center.
that Russian doctrine is to send in recruits to be trained by the unit they are assigned to.
sounds like a fantastic plan while dodging HIMARs and drones dropping bombs on your head.
Anyone else getting the feeling that this mobilization isn't really about Ukraine?
Putin has no off ramp. This mobilization is basically William Travis' 'Victory or Death' letter to the world. I don't think he intends to feed 300k troops into the Donbas/Kherson meat grinder. There is obviously a lot of propaganda to sift through, but if he is really going to draft 1M people and not just the 300k advertised, they may be destined for Kaliningrad via the Baltic states or if not bringing the war directly to NATO, Lviv via Belarus.
Putin has no off ramp. This mobilization is basically William Travis' 'Victory or Death' letter to the world. I don't think he intends to feed 300k troops into the Donbas/Kherson meat grinder. There is obviously a lot of propaganda to sift through, but if he is really going to draft 1M people and not just the 300k advertised, they may be destined for Kaliningrad via the Baltic states or if not bringing the war directly to NATO, Lviv via Belarus.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-september-ukrainian-artillery-hit-the-command-posts-ofQuote:
Ukrainian artillery hit the command posts of the Russians in the Genichesky and Kakhovskyi districts, - Operation Command South
has Putin ever heard of a country called "China' located to the south of Russiaone MEEN Ag said:
If Russia is conscripting for a full war, and depleting a conscripted army of a million means defeating Russia, America needs to send Ukraine everything they ever wanted.
Tanks
Planes
ATACMS
Ukriane overcoming this conscription and retaking Crimea would cripple Russia forever.
they must be licking their lips in Beijing right now seeing the Red Army demolished on the Western Front.
pretty soon they can literally walk across the border and take over Siberia.
To the post above I also wonder if ATACMS is on the table with this mobilization. i could at least see pre-approved targets like the Kerch bridge or major C-n-C HQ's.
can definitely see a northern prong coming down from Belarus to take Lviv and Kyivlb3 said:
Anyone else getting the feeling that this mobilization isn't really about Ukraine?
Putin has no off ramp. This mobilization is basically William Travis' 'Victory or Death' letter to the world. I don't think he intends to feed 300k troops into the Donbas/Kherson meat grinder. There is obviously a lot of propaganda to sift through, but if he is really going to draft 1M people and not just the 300k advertised, they may be destined for Kaliningrad via the Baltic states or if not bringing the war directly to NATO, Lviv via Belarus.
NO WAY does Putin invade or attack a NATO country.
if he was too afraid to do it last winter WHEN THEY HAD A UNDAMAGED ARMY-
why would he do it now when he is vastly weakened??!?!
That strike appears to be about 90 miles from the front line. Glad they have some long range capability.Waffledynamics said:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-september-ukrainian-artillery-hit-the-command-posts-ofQuote:
Ukrainian artillery hit the command posts of the Russians in the Genichesky and Kakhovskyi districts, - Operation Command South
I really don't think that Belarus wants to be directly involved in this fight. They can see how this is going and it would not serve them well to be more involved.LMCane said:can definitely see a northern prong coming down from Belarus to take Lviv and Kyivlb3 said:
Anyone else getting the feeling that this mobilization isn't really about Ukraine?
Putin has no off ramp. This mobilization is basically William Travis' 'Victory or Death' letter to the world. I don't think he intends to feed 300k troops into the Donbas/Kherson meat grinder. There is obviously a lot of propaganda to sift through, but if he is really going to draft 1M people and not just the 300k advertised, they may be destined for Kaliningrad via the Baltic states or if not bringing the war directly to NATO, Lviv via Belarus.
NO WAY does Putin invade or attack a NATO country.
if he was too afraid to do it last winter WHEN THEY HAD A UNDAMAGED ARMY-
why would he do it now when he is vastly weakened??!?!
This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.
I would not be surprised to see additional call ups, stealth mobilizations and prep in the Baltics and Finland.
Duh.lb3 said:
Anyone else getting the feeling that this mobilization isn't really about Ukraine?
Putin has no off ramp. This mobilization is basically William Travis' 'Victory or Death' letter to the world. I don't think he intends to feed 300k troops into the Donbas/Kherson meat grinder. There is obviously a lot of propaganda to sift through, but if he is really going to draft 1M people and not just the 300k advertised, they may be destined for Kaliningrad via the Baltic states or if not bringing the war directly to NATO, Lviv via Belarus.
From the countless attacks on bases and ammo depots I don't think Russia is moving them, the west gives Ukraine the intelligence on where they are and maybe helps prioritize the targets. On top of that with the new conscripts Russia looks to use their old plan that revolves around quantity having a quality of its own.
I think this is their last push before winter, at this point Russian soldiers will be sitting ducks once the ground freezes and this may be an empires last grasp
I think this is their last push before winter, at this point Russian soldiers will be sitting ducks once the ground freezes and this may be an empires last grasp
I just don't think they have the material to move this much manpower, unless they are planning to use the buses picking them up for conscription to take them into the warzone. It'll be a small stream rather than a flood and the Ukes are gonna have a field day with Western intelligence.
Exactly. Russia has lost a lot of equipment.2wealfth Man said:
This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.
wangus12 said:
I just don't think they have the material to move this much manpower, unless they are planning to use the buses picking them up for conscription to take them into the warzone. It'll be a small stream rather than a flood and the Ukes are gonna have a field day with Western intelligence.
The only thing this is going to change is the sentiment of the Russian people
I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.
I sure hope so. But talk about a serious lack of IQ in that nation. I guess you could compare it to our own welfare population. Education is not prioritized and corruption run amok.
as another poster mentioned above- the Russkies could use Belarus territory to make a play for Kyiv and Lviv.2wealfth Man said:
This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.
I could see that as at least a feint to draw attention and forces away from Kherson and Luhansk Oblast where Russia is being pounded every hour.
they still have trains worth of T-62sFriscoKid said:Exactly. Russia has lost a lot of equipment.2wealfth Man said:
This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.
hell, they may just have an infantry assault and force their new recruits to march down a highway clutching AK-47s.
I haven't been following the war the last several months - in a short summary, can anyone describe the current state? Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine?
There is a summary in the last 10 pages or so that someone put up.Aggie_2463 said:
I haven't been following the war the last several months - in a short summary, can anyone describe the current state? Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine?
It's too early to say who will ultimately win, but Ukraine has indeed taken back thousands of sq km of land, a huge chunk of which was taken in the Kharkiv region early this month in an utter rout. Russia has responded to their woes by deciding it's a great idea to mobilize somewhere between 300,000 and 1.2 million new troops, most of whom appear to be getting drafted and thrown in with little training, supplies, etc.Aggie_2463 said:
I haven't been following the war the last several months - in a short summary, can anyone describe the current state? Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine?
Here's a map of the first 200 days. Note that it gets more outdated as time goes on, obviously, but for now it's still fairly accurate.
The first 200 days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as mapped by @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar.
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) September 18, 2022
Ukrainian forces have liberated more than 60,000 square kilometers of territory since April. pic.twitter.com/UNTHihw5UL
Oh boy. The feint again huh?LMCane said:as another poster mentioned above- the Russkies could use Belarus territory to make a play for Kyiv and Lviv.2wealfth Man said:
This northern prong will consist of what kind of material and equipment? Anything pointed toward Kiev or Lviv gets shredded without even a moments pause. That would be life or death for the Ukes.
I could see that as at least a feint to draw attention and forces away from Kherson and Luhansk Oblast where Russia is being pounded every hour.
You skipped the second act where Ukraine and Russia were in a stalemate. Russia could only take ground by creating a wasteland with their artillery. Ukraine was struggling with regaining captured ground. Ukraine got the HIMARS up and running and went after strategic targets deep in enemy territory. Ammo dumps, strategic railroad points, barracks. Made it hard for Russia to hold land. Ukraine spent what seemed like two months doing this while holding their lines. Ukraine makes a push for Kherson in the south. Taking Kherson means Ukrainians have a launching point to Crimea in the south and the land bridge up the east, but Kherson is also a key city getting reinforced on rail lines from Crimea and the land bridge. Russia builds up troops in Kherson on the defense. Ukraine starts to go in on Kherson from the north, but pulls the football and goes east, getting past the first level defenders. Surprises the Russians (and the Ukrainians lets be honest), and Ukraine takes a big swath of land to the east, extended by the equipment Russia left behind. Ukraine is in better control (but not full) of supply lines reinforcing Kherson.Aggie_2463 said:
I haven't been following the war the last several months - in a short summary, can anyone describe the current state? Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine?
Russia sees they are going to lose Kherson over the next six months. Calls up a draft. Will see how Ukraine and the rest of the world respond to a million man call up. Russia looks like they are drawing heavily from minority areas (remember, Russia is empire lording over a bunch of vassals they have a lot of people that would not consider themselves primarily russian living within their borders.)
Russia looks like they are going to try to go WW2 locust swarm with every new conscript getting either a gun or ammo, but not both.
Winter is going to be about how much you prepare versus how much you care. Can europe keep giving a little help as they descend into a recession over heating prices? Will america keep giving aid as they have their own recession? Putin isn't going to cloth, feed and supply a million men. He is going to release them on Ukraine like a locust swarm and tell them to steal to say fed and warm. Can Ukraine overcome those resource demands?
Here's what we do know:
Will the EU ever appreciate the American LNGs headed their way to save their frozen asses? No.
Will Germany actually build a terminal in time? No.
Will France fix their nuclear maintenance problems in time? No.
France, beyond their maintenance woes is limited in energy production due to high heat and low rivers. They can't dump the excess energy into the rivers without killing all the fish. Fall and winter temperatures will help them bring online more capacity. But it won't be enough to make things cheap again.
Any chance the west can carve St. Petersburg out of Russia? In the chaos of a Coup or Revolution, I could see an opportunity for St.Petersburg to declare independence and form a 4th Baltic state.aginresearch said:
I don't think Russia as we have known it survives this mobilization. Their medium term demographic collapse has been accelerated to now.
Childish perhaps, but it’s somehow satisfying that if you flip an image of a Russian policeman his jacket spells ‘homo’ pic.twitter.com/HL0ytsCJpK
— Chris (@cd2026) September 21, 2022
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