***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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CondensedFogAggie
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CondensedFogAggie
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'It's a 100% mobilisation': day one of Russia's drive to build its army

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-mobilisation-ukraine-war-army-drive


Quote:

One woman in a small village in the Zakamensky region of Buryatia, in eastern Siberia, said she first felt something was amiss when the dogs began barking about midnight. In a community of 450 people, the village head was walking from house to house, seeking to hand out more than 20 draft notices.

"It's not a partial mobilisation, it's a 100% mobilisation," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an activist group that has reported on the draft in the region. In the past day, she said, she and her colleagues had received and identified more than 3,000 reports of povestka, or draft papers, being delivered in Buryatia within just 24 hours

One woman said a 52-year-old relative had been delivered a povestka

"'Don't you have five children?' they asked him. My husband laughed and said 'yes, five kids'. 'Well, OK, expect your draft papers,'" she said.

Video and anecdotal evidence from around Russia has shown large drafts taking place even in small towns, suggesting that the numbers could be far higher.[than 300,000]

In Neryungri, the second largest town in Sakha, also known as Yakutia, video footage appeared to show dozens of men being gathered at the Gornyak football stadium and loaded onto buses bound for recruitment centres, as family members bid tearful farewells. Many of the men appeared to be in their 30s and 40s.

In Moscow, police officers reportedly began giving draft notices to those they detained at the protest.
Among them was Artem Krieger, a young reporter for the Sota Vision news outlet, who was detained despite being there to cover the protests.

"All the men, absolutely everyone, was given a draft notice," said Krieger

The breadth of the mobilisation across Russia is staggering. One video showed more than 100 potential draftees lined up behind an An-12 plane at an airport in Khurba in the far-eastern Khabarovsk region.

Obviously most of us do not think much of these conscripts, but the scope is staggering. They may very well conscript well over 300,000 men.

And yes while many will desert, mutiny, riot, surrender etc, many will take orders and fight with whatever weapons they have, which will result in Ukrainian casualties.



txags92
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:



'It's a 100% mobilisation': day one of Russia's drive to build its army

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/22/russia-mobilisation-ukraine-war-army-drive


Quote:

One woman in a small village in the Zakamensky region of Buryatia, in eastern Siberia, said she first felt something was amiss when the dogs began barking about midnight. In a community of 450 people, the village head was walking from house to house, seeking to hand out more than 20 draft notices.

"It's not a partial mobilisation, it's a 100% mobilisation," said Alexandra Garmazhapova, president of the Free Buryatia Foundation, an activist group that has reported on the draft in the region. In the past day, she said, she and her colleagues had received and identified more than 3,000 reports of povestka, or draft papers, being delivered in Buryatia within just 24 hours

One woman said a 52-year-old relative had been delivered a povestka

"'Don't you have five children?' they asked him. My husband laughed and said 'yes, five kids'. 'Well, OK, expect your draft papers,'" she said.

Video and anecdotal evidence from around Russia has shown large drafts taking place even in small towns, suggesting that the numbers could be far higher.[than 300,000]

In Neryungri, the second largest town in Sakha, also known as Yakutia, video footage appeared to show dozens of men being gathered at the Gornyak football stadium and loaded onto buses bound for recruitment centres, as family members bid tearful farewells. Many of the men appeared to be in their 30s and 40s.

In Moscow, police officers reportedly began giving draft notices to those they detained at the protest.
Among them was Artem Krieger, a young reporter for the Sota Vision news outlet, who was detained despite being there to cover the protests.

"All the men, absolutely everyone, was given a draft notice," said Krieger

The breadth of the mobilisation across Russia is staggering. One video showed more than 100 potential draftees lined up behind an An-12 plane at an airport in Khurba in the far-eastern Khabarovsk region.

Obviously most of us do not think much of these conscripts, but the scope is staggering. They may very well conscript well over 300,000 men.

And yes while many will desert, mutiny, riot, surrender etc, many will take orders and fight with whatever weapons they have, which will result in Ukrainian casualties.




I feel sorry for the conscripts, but I hope Ukraine hits the buses and trains with Himars before they make it into Ukraine.
FriscoKid
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I can't figure out what they are going to fight with. This is madness. When Hitler did this he had the manufacturing ability to make more stuff. Putin is sending these guys to their death. A wall of flesh will quickly die.

This is a mad man that needs a bullet in his head.
CondensedFogAggie
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Just surrender as soon as you get to the border. I have sympathy, but in pales in comparison to the Ukes who have been through far worse and are fighting for their existence.
CondensedFogAggie
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Is anyone surprised by anything coming out of Russia these days.
CondensedFogAggie
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Not a Bot
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Not a Bot
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CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

...top national security officials in both countries have hesitated to provide the tanks, in part due to the training and logistics challenges involved, according to U.S. officials. The M-1s, for example, are a completely different system than the Soviet-era tanks Ukraine currently operates, and require significant maintenance and logistics support.

For the immediate fight, the Leopards might be a better fit because they are similar to the tanks Ukraine already operates and require less fuel than the Abrams.

One adviser to the Ukrainian government said "the Ukrainians definitely want the Leopards" and have been frustrated that Germany has denied the permits to Spain and other countries that were willing to donate them. The Leopard tank is one of the most in-demand main battle tanks in Europe, in use in over a dozen countries.

The Germans have been backfilling smaller countries that are sending their own armored vehicles to Ukraine, and in May pledged to transfer 15 Leopards from their own stocks to the Czech Republic after they sent their own Russian-made armor to Kyiv. In August, Berlin agreed to send another 15 Leopards to Slovakia to replace the 30 armored infantry fighting vehicles they donated. Several countries, including Spain, requested German permission to hand their tanks over to Ukraine, but were denied the permits as Berlin continues to struggle with its longstanding policy of refusing to export arms to conflict zones.

German defense company Rheinmetall also requested government approval to export 88 Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but Berlin refused to grant permission.


Come on, transfer the Leopards before the conscripts from Russia arrive.
Not a Bot
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C@LAg
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if they have a medium type winter, especially an early one, the ruskies are going to be hosed:
- ****-ton of conscripts, mostly untrained
- questionable ammo lines
- questionable heavy machinery

and most important:
- most do not have the conviction/belief in this conflict

going to be brutal.

CondensedFogAggie
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He's yelling out the Russian word for ATGM. Can't believe he spotted it.

Close call. Give the Ukes the Leopolds.
Fitch
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So doing the quick math, there's ~46M men between the ages of 18-64 in all of Russia. The rumored 1M conscription distribution almost assuredly is not evenly spread, but even if it were you're still talking 2.2 conscripts per 100. At that rate everyone will know multiple coworkers, relatives, friends , etc, who had their sons shipped off to die.

Just me editorializing but not hard to see the distribution being biased towards younger cohorts and unevenly favor rural and/or exempt some groups. Then you might be looking at rates like 1 in 30 or 1 in 20
AgLA06
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Fitch said:


Just me editorializing but not hard to see the distribution being biased towards younger cohorts and unevenly favor rural and/or exempt some groups. Then you might be looking at rates like 1 in 30 or 1 in 20


Of course they will. I think the rumors of a million man draft goal are real. Probably because with how poorly trained and equipped and the expected number of deserters, that's what's needed to equal a similar force to that which initially invaded. The stories above of 30-40% mobilization in more rural parts will allow them to keep to 5% in the more populated areas in hopes of the cities not breaking out the pitchforks .
P.U.T.U
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The only ethnic group in Russia that is growing is the Muslims, wonder how Russia is going to get them to fight since many of the "true" Russians have been very outspoken about reversing that trend.

They are sending T62 tanks that have not been manufactured in 50 years, conscripts that get 1-2 weeks training, and there are already reports of soldiers getting one magazine worth of ammo. This is almost WWII again where some soldiers don't get a rifle and have to take them from another soldier who can no longer use one due to death or injury. On top of that Ukraine has taken Russian positions where defensive positions and trenches have already been dug.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
Newoldarmy
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Putin doesn't need a million soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

This has so far been an interesting watch from afar.

It now looks very much like the end of the first stage of a Third World War and the end of the Pax Americana.

The US needs to kill Putin.
Gilligan
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Private PoopyPants said:

German government may offer asylum for Russians seeking to avoid the war:


Germany should be careful. If more than 10 RuZZian's move into an area Poot'n will hold a referendum to annex it.

RuZZian's are like a locust and leave nothing left where they walk...
Gilligan
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Waffledynamics said:


"No dumb bas-tard ever won a war by going out and dying for his country. He won it by making some other dumb bas-tard die for his country." ~Patton
P.U.T.U
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Newoldarmy said:

Putin doesn't need a million soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

This has so far been an interesting watch from afar.

It now looks very much like the end of the first stage of a Third World War and the end of the Pax Americana.

The US needs to kill Putin.
The USA does not need to kill Putin, Russia needs to kill Putin. Just Bolivia killed Che Guevara, Mexico killed El Chapo, etc., so we don't start WW3. Even if everyone knows if we had a part in it we still need to have plausible deniability
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks near Kupyansk, Spirne, Mayorsk, Zaitseve, Avdiivka, Novomykhailivka, Opytne and Kamyanka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-september-ukrainian-military-repelled-russian-attacks

I normally don't post these updates because it's just Russia beating their heads against the wall in the same places over and over again, but I find it noteworthy that were seeing reports of repelled attacks in Kupyansk lately. It seems the Russians have regrouped enough to try that.
Newoldarmy
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P.U.T.U said:

Newoldarmy said:

Putin doesn't need a million soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

This has so far been an interesting watch from afar.

It now looks very much like the end of the first stage of a Third World War and the end of the Pax Americana.

The US needs to kill Putin.
The USA does not need to kill Putin, Russia needs to kill Putin. Just Bolivia killed Che Guevara, Mexico killed El Chapo, etc., so we don't start WW3. Even if everyone knows if we had a part in it we still need to have plausible deniability
That's fine.

Also, El Chapo is alive and well in Colorado.
one MEEN Ag
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If Russia is conscripting for a full war, and depleting a conscripted army of a million means defeating Russia, America needs to send Ukraine everything they ever wanted.

Tanks
Planes
ATACMS

Ukriane overcoming this conscription and retaking Crimea would cripple Russia forever.
Waffledynamics
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More on Lyman, as was suggested in the latest Denys Davydov video:

Waffledynamics
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Totally legitimate referendum, guys. These people just want to be Russians so badly!



Waffledynamics
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Rybar is a pro-Russian milblog.

Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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Supposedly this is a list of SAM sites.

Waffledynamics
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Waffledynamics
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txags92
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Waffledynamics said:

Rybar is a pro-Russian milblog.


Interesting line there at the end. They hope that the people doing the actual conscriptions get their **** together because otherwise it will make the Army look bad. Not because they are conscripting the wrong people or raising an army of unwilling, untrained, and unfit bums...but because they want to uphold the reputation of the army. Part of me thinks that believing in the reputation of their army instead of the reality is how they got themselves into this mess where they are getting their asses kicked by Ukraine, but introspection is tough I guess.
BadMoonRisin
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I havent been following this that closely, I must admit. Can anyone tell me how many soldiers were deployed so far? Trying to get a sense of how much an extra 300k / 1 mil would be compared to the number of Russians already in-theater.
Faustus
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Waffledynamics said:

More on Lyman, as was suggested in the latest Denys Davydov video:


Looks like Silian's fears have been realized with where the Ukrainians gained entry.
torrid
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Newoldarmy said:

P.U.T.U said:

Newoldarmy said:

Putin doesn't need a million soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

This has so far been an interesting watch from afar.

It now looks very much like the end of the first stage of a Third World War and the end of the Pax Americana.

The US needs to kill Putin.
The USA does not need to kill Putin, Russia needs to kill Putin. Just Bolivia killed Che Guevara, Mexico killed El Chapo, etc., so we don't start WW3. Even if everyone knows if we had a part in it we still need to have plausible deniability
That's fine.

Also, El Chapo is alive and well in Colorado.
Putin would make a good cellmate for him.
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