So have the troops sent into Ukraine so far been cannon fodder, and are the reservists being called up the true experience and capable Russian military? Or has Putin blown his load and now needs to dig from the bottom of the barrel?
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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We already know the Russians are having significant material issues. Mainly with air, armor and logistics. They are pulling out a lot of old tanks, tanks designed for their tank games and other items. Their inventory isn't endless and this isn't the 70s or 80s. They haven't properly maintained a lot of the older equipment and mothballed equipment needs to be inspected, repaired and maintained to be brought up. It also creates massive logistics problems to then bring up spares and repair material to a dynamic battlefield.
The nuclear threat is far more concerning than another 300,000 infantry. There are good reasons why peer to peer or peer to near peer battles have been heavy on armor and artillery for 100 years.
Getting those reservists up will take months and it will not be a fun winter for them.
The nuclear threat is far more concerning than another 300,000 infantry. There are good reasons why peer to peer or peer to near peer battles have been heavy on armor and artillery for 100 years.
Getting those reservists up will take months and it will not be a fun winter for them.
Russia just purchased artillery from North Korea. Their inventories are depleted and they have no means of producing significant quantities of arms without smuggling embargoed technology out of the west.
What will they equip the 300k reservists with? It won't be modern body armor or night vision. Their existing units aren't using this either.
What will they ride into battle? There are few reserves of modern tanks or armored personnel carriers left and no parts or people to maintain them.
How will they supply these additional troops? Russian convoys have recently resorted to using 1/2 ton civilian vehicles (pickups and SUVs) instead of the 5 ton military trucks they started the war with.
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
But I wouldn't bet on the west abandoning Ukraine. This war, coupled with Russia's demographic problems, has the potential to achieve the military destruction of the Russian state.
Russia is the only country that has ever threatened American primacy in the world that wasn't wiped off the map. This is a once in a generation opportunity to achieve American strategic goals without involving American blood.
What will they equip the 300k reservists with? It won't be modern body armor or night vision. Their existing units aren't using this either.
What will they ride into battle? There are few reserves of modern tanks or armored personnel carriers left and no parts or people to maintain them.
How will they supply these additional troops? Russian convoys have recently resorted to using 1/2 ton civilian vehicles (pickups and SUVs) instead of the 5 ton military trucks they started the war with.
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
But I wouldn't bet on the west abandoning Ukraine. This war, coupled with Russia's demographic problems, has the potential to achieve the military destruction of the Russian state.
Russia is the only country that has ever threatened American primacy in the world that wasn't wiped off the map. This is a once in a generation opportunity to achieve American strategic goals without involving American blood.
torrid said:
So have the troops sent into Ukraine so far been cannon fodder, and are the reservists being called up the true experience and capable Russian military? Or has Putin blown his load and now needs to dig from the bottom of the barrel?
Trick question: they're all cannon fodder. Even their "elite troops" got smashed as early as the beginning of the war. Once Ukraine rallied, Russia has had to simply throw meat into the grinder to make any gains at all.
Why?
D-Fens said:
Ukraine needs to go ahead and give up the Russian speaking east and hope for a negotiation to protect the west. We know that's how it ends, so go ahead and formalize it. They can't wait until a Trump or DeSantis comes in to check Putin.
Why? Ukraine has the initiative. Russia is the one begging for negotiations so that they can keep what they've occupied in the face of losses that are not showing signs of stopping.
Everything about the last day has proven that Russia has been licked.
Russia's men, materials and momentum have been severely degraded. The Conscript call up armed with muskets and grenades will fail to generate any offensive success, much less be able to hold those gains if any. It truly is like throwing your people into a giant meat grinder, thousands at a time from here on out.
The Ukes have an opportunity to push the Orcs back to the borders in various areas of the fight. Then build solid defense lines, reposition SAM assets and refit/rearm thru the lend/lease.
If they can get enough success in recapturing their occupied lands, they could basically say "FU Come at Me Bro".
The Ukes have an opportunity to push the Orcs back to the borders in various areas of the fight. Then build solid defense lines, reposition SAM assets and refit/rearm thru the lend/lease.
If they can get enough success in recapturing their occupied lands, they could basically say "FU Come at Me Bro".
Peace in something something.D-Fens said:
Ukraine needs to go ahead and give up the Russian speaking east and hope for a negotiation to protect the west. We know that's how it ends, so go ahead and formalize it. They can't wait until a Trump or DeSantis comes in to check Putin.
Waffledynamics said:D-Fens said:
Ukraine needs to go ahead and give up the Russian speaking east and hope for a negotiation to protect the west. We know that's how it ends, so go ahead and formalize it. They can't wait until a Trump or DeSantis comes in to check Putin.
Why? Ukraine has the initiative. Russia is the one begging for negotiations so that they can keep what they've occupied in the face of losses that are not showing signs of stopping.
Everything about the last day has proven that Russia has been licked.
Kinda seems like page 1 again. Lots of folks have jumped in this thread who don't seem like they've really followed the war closely based on their posts
nm
docb said:Waffledynamics said:D-Fens said:
Ukraine needs to go ahead and give up the Russian speaking east and hope for a negotiation to protect the west. We know that's how it ends, so go ahead and formalize it. They can't wait until a Trump or DeSantis comes in to check Putin.
Why? Ukraine has the initiative. Russia is the one begging for negotiations so that they can keep what they've occupied in the face of losses that are not showing signs of stopping.
Everything about the last day has proven that Russia has been licked.
Kinda seems like page 1 again. Lots of folks have jumped in this thread who don't seem like they've really followed the war closely based on their posts
Exactly.
This feels like its much closer to the end for Putin than it does for Ukraine.
I don't know if Putin is fully aware of how ill-equipped his army is. But I do agree that this is probably how Putin is thinking. Western Europe is soft. At least Russians won't be freezing this winter. Germans will. More importantly the large, restless, mostly young male Muslim ghettos are going to be freezing and they aren't going to sit still. I believe that Putin thinks he can trigger mass civil unrest in a lot of important places in Western Europe and that they will quickly forget about Ukraine as they pivot to deal with their own domestic issues. He just has to hold the line until the full weight of winter does it's work. He may be thinking that half way through the winter NATO will sue for peace and Putin will be back in the driver's seat. It's certainly a long-shot and comes at enormous cost to the Russian people but when has that ever been a major consideration for Russian elites?lb3 said:
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
The problem for Putin is that it is the United States who is funding this war by and large. We can do this all day long. NATO is just window dressing.
French nuclear should be coming back online this fall so the issues with gas can be somewhat ameliorated. It's going to be a ****ty winter for a lot of Europe though.
Macron gave a gangbusters speech yesterday at the UN and the Europeans have belatedly realized that everything we told them for the last decade plus about Russia was true. I think they will tough it out and it will cause further anger against Russia when things in Europe get tough.
Macron gave a gangbusters speech yesterday at the UN and the Europeans have belatedly realized that everything we told them for the last decade plus about Russia was true. I think they will tough it out and it will cause further anger against Russia when things in Europe get tough.
If Europe wants the gas turned back on bad enough to make concessions to Putin we aren't going to be sending arms to Ukraine. It might even become physically impossible even if we wanted to. We supply arms through NATO countries with their cooperation. Putin is banking on that situation ending.aginresearch said:
The problem for Putin is that it is the United States who is funding this war by and large. We can do this all day long. NATO is just window dressing.
Germany has already announced they have come up with just enough gas to make it through winter. No one is going to tell us shutoff the arms shipments. They all know who is in charge. In addition we are the largest producers of natural gas in the world. We can eventually supply all their needs if they build LNG terminals.
Oh there'll be Russians freezing, and Russia doesn't appear to have the logistics to support them.
I hope this helps the world embrace nuclear power again, although that's for another threadtremble said:
French nuclear should be coming back online this fall so the issues with gas can be somewhat ameliorated. It's going to be a ****ty winter for a lot of Europe though.
D-Fens said:
Ukraine needs to go ahead and give up the Russian speaking east and hope for a negotiation to protect the west. We know that's how it ends, so go ahead and formalize it. They can't wait until a Trump or DeSantis comes in to check Putin.
Do we know how it ends? What evidence exist to show Russia can hold those regions?
HumpitPuryear said:If Europe wants the gas turned back on bad enough to make concessions to Putin we aren't going to be sending arms to Ukraine. It might even become physically impossible even if we wanted to. We supply arms through NATO countries with their cooperation. Putin is banking on that situation ending.aginresearch said:
The problem for Putin is that it is the United States who is funding this war by and large. We can do this all day long. NATO is just window dressing.
Which NATO countries are going to prohibit the ****ing United States of America from shipping weapons to Ukraine?
It's sure as hell isn't Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, or Finland. It also sure as hell isn't France who's going to tell us to stop.
Quote:
Russian base with ammunition depot was destroyed in Svatove of Luhansk region
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-september-russian-base-with-ammunition-depot-was-destroyed
Recall that Svatove is a stated goal for Ukraine in order to further cut Russian logistics.
best post of the threadlb3 said:
Russia just purchased artillery from North Korea. Their inventories are depleted and they have no means of producing significant quantities of arms without smuggling embargoed technology out of the west.
What will they equip the 300k reservists with? It won't be modern body armor or night vision. Their existing units aren't using this either.
What will they ride into battle? There are few reserves of modern tanks or armored personnel carriers left and no parts or people to maintain them.
How will they supply these additional troops? Russian convoys have recently resorted to using 1/2 ton civilian vehicles (pickups and SUVs) instead of the 5 ton military trucks they started the war with.
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
But I wouldn't bet on the west abandoning Ukraine. This war, coupled with Russia's demographic problems, has the potential to achieve the military destruction of the Russian state.
Russia is the only country that has ever threatened American primacy in the world that wasn't wiped off the map. This is a once in a generation opportunity to achieve American strategic goals without involving American blood.
I would just put as a rejoinder that the same unrest Putin may be trying to stir up in the West...HumpitPuryear said:I don't know if Putin is fully aware of how ill-equipped his army is. But I do agree that this is probably how Putin is thinking. Western Europe is soft. At least Russians won't be freezing this winter. Germans will. More importantly the large, restless, mostly young male Muslim ghettos are going to be freezing and they aren't going to sit still. I believe that Putin thinks he can trigger mass civil unrest in a lot of important places in Western Europe and that they will quickly forget about Ukraine as they pivot to deal with their own domestic issues. He just has to hold the line until the full weight of winter does it's work. He may be thinking that half way through the winter NATO will sue for peace and Putin will be back in the driver's seat. It's certainly a long-shot and comes at enormous cost to the Russian people but when has that ever been a major consideration for Russian elites?lb3 said:
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
can hit Russia just as hard.
where are these "300,000" reservists coming from? who is going to take their place in the economy? What happens when more and more body bags, and more and more telegram messages from ethnic Russians start to come back to large cities in Russia?!?
let's not forget that it has been RUSSIA that has had more revolutions in the 20th century than western europe!
NYT article showing recent advances with scrolling map.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/21/world/europe/ukraine-maps-momentum.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/21/world/europe/ukraine-maps-momentum.html
Good thread https://t.co/Hg73rQEYQa
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 21, 2022
Reminder: One week ago, #Putin's press secretary Dmitry #Peskov stated that a #mobilization in #Russia is out of question. pic.twitter.com/VhSvacIfaI
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 21, 2022
Why does #Russia conscript 300,000 men when the losses are less than 6,000? Maybe somebody can explain. #Shoigu cannot lie, really.
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 21, 2022
Journalists were able to identify 6,300 #Russian soldiers who died in #Ukraine. The number of actual losses is multiplied many times over.
Everything goes to plan... https://t.co/ltj19EPRo6
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) September 21, 2022
Quote:
The Russian military launched 2 missile strikes on the Chuhuiv district of the Kharkiv region, as a result of which the upper lock of the Pecheniny dam was destroyed
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/21-september-tonight-the-russian-military-launched-2-missile
If that is how Putin is thinking, then he is making many of the same mistakes that Adolf Hitler made when he tried to invade the Soviet Union...HumpitPuryear said:I don't know if Putin is fully aware of how ill-equipped his army is. But I do agree that this is probably how Putin is thinking. Western Europe is soft. At least Russians won't be freezing this winter. Germans will. More importantly the large, restless, mostly young male Muslim ghettos are going to be freezing and they aren't going to sit still. I believe that Putin thinks he can trigger mass civil unrest in a lot of important places in Western Europe and that they will quickly forget about Ukraine as they pivot to deal with their own domestic issues. He just has to hold the line until the full weight of winter does it's work. He may be thinking that half way through the winter NATO will sue for peace and Putin will be back in the driver's seat. It's certainly a long-shot and comes at enormous cost to the Russian people but when has that ever been a major consideration for Russian elites?lb3 said:
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
At least Hitler had a well-trained army and good equipment...he just underestimated the weather, the will of the Soviets, their equipment, and the numbers they were willing to sacrifice to protect their homeland...
In this instance, Putin may have numbers, but the will of his conscripts pales in comparison to that of the Ukes, and the Ukes have better equipment than the Russians now, thanks to the West...
I still believe that, ultimately, someone turns on Putin and he's removed...
FireAg said:If that is how Putin is thinking, then he is making many of the same mistakes that Adolf Hitler made when he tried to invade the Soviet Union...HumpitPuryear said:I don't know if Putin is fully aware of how ill-equipped his army is. But I do agree that this is probably how Putin is thinking. Western Europe is soft. At least Russians won't be freezing this winter. Germans will. More importantly the large, restless, mostly young male Muslim ghettos are going to be freezing and they aren't going to sit still. I believe that Putin thinks he can trigger mass civil unrest in a lot of important places in Western Europe and that they will quickly forget about Ukraine as they pivot to deal with their own domestic issues. He just has to hold the line until the full weight of winter does it's work. He may be thinking that half way through the winter NATO will sue for peace and Putin will be back in the driver's seat. It's certainly a long-shot and comes at enormous cost to the Russian people but when has that ever been a major consideration for Russian elites?lb3 said:
Russia will hurry the fat and old troops into battle, ill equipped, poorly trained, and unmotivated. They will die by the thousands. They won't turn the tide for Russia but they might help Russia hold their ground through the winter. If a cold winter cripples the EU and supplies of western weapons to Ukraine dry up, Russia will win.
At least Hitler had a well-trained army and good equipment...he just underestimated the weather, the will of the Soviets, their equipment, and the numbers they were willing to sacrifice to protect their homeland...
In this instance, Putin may have numbers, but the will of his conscripts pales in comparison to that of the Ukes, and the Ukes have better equipment than the Russians now, thanks to the West...
I still believe that, ultimately, someone turns on Putin and he's removed...
I think that must happen as well. Putin will have to be taken down from the inside. He's doing his damnedest to push people out of windows before the same can be done to him.
There is no tidal wave coming. Russia's conventional forces are spent. Vlad shot his wad months ago and he has been bluffing ever since. If they could use military maneuver and fires to defeat the Ukrainian military and seize land, they would have done it. Instead, all they have done is slaughter civilians and destroy infrastructure in hope that it would scare the Ukrainians into negotiating and they failed.rgag12 said:
Time is now on Russia's side. They're now signaling they will do everything necessary to win the war. They have a distinct manpower and material advantage over Ukraine, but it will take some time for it to get going.
I'd say Ukraine has about 6-8 months to re-conquer as much as they can and dig in before the tidal wave hits them. Russia isn't going to negotiate until it get all of what it wants.
Until yesterday I thought Russia might've been disinclined to fight a real war and might've negotiated if Ukraine took back Kherson. They've now escalated and I'm afraid Ukraine will not stand a chance against a Russia on a real war-footing unless the west directly intervenes
Russia has burned through the forces of the Stans & Chechnya and their own forces have been shredded. The actual losses are probably pretty close to what the Ukraine MoD is claiming they are.
Russia is a poor nation of 145 million people run by corrupt people at every level. They have no tradition of military innovation and flexibility of thought. They tried **and failed** to crush Ukraine with the weight of the forces they could muster and they failed. They don't have anything left to send without leaving their other borders completely naked. That's why they are conscripting prisoners and old men.
Just for perspective, China's one-child policy created a surplus of 180 million Chinese men for whom there is no Chinese woman. That is 35 million more unmarriable Chinese men than there are people is poor, regressive, drunk Russians.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572309048413900801.html
Great article detailing some of the volunteer small unit tactics in WSJ yesterday. Highly recommend.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-invasion-ukraine-battle-of-kyiv-ragtag-army-11663683336
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-invasion-ukraine-battle-of-kyiv-ragtag-army-11663683336
That thread was wild. The oligarchs are coalescing forces for a post-Putin civil war. Who knows how true it's, but if this mobilization Putinnhas ordered could be subverted to obtain and train regional forces who then point their guns at each other vs being sent to Ukraine.
MACRONtremble said:
French nuclear should be coming back online this fall so the issues with gas can be somewhat ameliorated. It's going to be a ****ty winter for a lot of Europe though.
Macron gave a gangbusters speech yesterday at the UN and the Europeans have belatedly realized that everything we told them for the last decade plus about Russia was true. I think they will tough it out and it will cause further anger against Russia when things in Europe get tough.
All plane tickets from Russia to visa-free countries are sold out, @ru_rbc reports. I wonder what the ratio of male to female passengers is.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 21, 2022
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