***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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7:21p, 9/20/22
AG


Go here and hit "U" to filter only military planes.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/
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CondensedFogAggie
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:30p, 9/20/22
Waffledynamics said:
Yeah, okay.

Go **** yourself Olga
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CondensedFogAggie
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7:35p, 9/20/22


Russia using horrible phosphorus munitions yet again.
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CondensedFogAggie
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7:38p, 9/20/22
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CondensedFogAggie
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7:39p, 9/20/22


Looks like this guy Ryan is on a mission to remove landmines from Ukraine. If you search his name, can see his website explaining his calling.
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Jsimonds58
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:47p, 9/20/22
AG
Our boys going dark would generally mean that we think Russia is about to get squirrelly
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CondensedFogAggie
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7:47p, 9/20/22
CondensedFogAggie
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7:48p, 9/20/22
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74OA
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7:52p, 9/20/22
AG
Today's SITREP.
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Not a Bot
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9:17p, 9/20/22
AG


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PJYoung
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:34p, 9/20/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:




I would love for this to be Putin's last act as leader.
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Not a Bot
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11:28p, 9/20/22
AG


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FriscoKid
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In reply to FireAg • 12:04a, 9/21/22
AG
FireAg said:
Waffledynamics said:
Here is a link to a post a few pages back that has an animated map of the first 200 days, in case you want to see that progress.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/63011091
So basically, they have gone from closing on Kyiv to slowly losing their grip on the fringes in the Crimea?

Vlad got his ass kicked...


IMHO, yep.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to txags92 • 12:43a, 9/21/22
AG
txags92 said:
lb3 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?
The official response is that they wanted to wait until all of Russia (Eastern Time Zones) was awake (daylight hours) so they are playing the pre-recorded message at 0800 Moscow time.

My guess is they wanted to have the border closed to all adult aged males before the announcement to prevent a rush for the exits.
My guess is that Putin was having a bad day physically/mentally and wasn't up for a live broadcast. So they recorded it in multiple takes to cut any sign of his frailty/cognitive issues and will play the recording instead.


That doesn't explain the comment by chairman of defense on no full mobilization but martial law. To me the delay and martial law comment signifies dissension and I am all for it. **** putin and russia.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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74OA
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1:54a, 9/21/22
AG
Russia calls up the reserves. DESPERATION
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D-Fens
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2:40a, 9/21/22
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FarmerFran
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In reply to D-Fens • 3:26a, 9/21/22
AG
D-Fens said:


It's **** around and find out time.
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Corporal Punishment
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4:00a, 9/21/22
AG
Quote:
"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people - this is not a bluff," Putin said in a televised address to the nation.

He made the comments after accusing the West of "nuclear blackmail", saying that top government officials in several unnamed "leading" NATO countries had spoken of potentially using nuclear weapons against Russia.


What the hell is he talking about?
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PA24
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4:12a, 9/21/22
AG
Next step is WW3.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to D-Fens • 4:14a, 9/21/22
AG
Odd that besides his head moving during his speech only his left thumb moves. Movements just feel unnatural
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P.U.T.U
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4:20a, 9/21/22
AG
Also looking at LiveMap, it does look like Russia is on the artillery offensive again
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FarmerFran
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 5:30a, 9/21/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
Odd that besides his head moving during his speech only his left thumb moves. Movements just feel unnatural


Everytime I see him it makes me more and more confident that he is developing Parkinson's.
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Who?mikejones!
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6:28a, 9/21/22
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FamousAgg
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6:46a, 9/21/22
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wangus12
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In reply to FarmerFran • 6:50a, 9/21/22
AG
RONA Ag said:
D-Fens said:


It's **** around and find out time.


Yep and Russia knows damn well the rest of the planet isn't gonna recognize this little stunt. Like it has been since this started, they use nukes and it'll all be over for them
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74OA
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In reply to Corporal Punishment • 6:51a, 9/21/22
AG
Corporal Punishment said:
Quote:
"If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people - this is not a bluff," Putin said in a televised address to the nation.

He made the comments after accusing the West of "nuclear blackmail", saying that top government officials in several unnamed "leading" NATO countries had spoken of potentially using nuclear weapons against Russia.


What the hell is he talking about?
CONTEXT
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to wangus12 • 7:07a, 9/21/22
wangus12 said:
RONA Ag said:
D-Fens said:


It's **** around and find out time.


Yep and Russia knows damn well the rest of the planet isn't gonna recognize this little stunt. Like it has been since this started, they use nukes and it'll all be over for them


Yep, he confirmed this little referendum stunt serves as an excuse to escalate the war.

Ah, comrade, but now you attack mother Russia! We will do what we must to win.
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rgag12
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7:10a, 9/21/22
AG
Time is now on Russia's side. They're now signaling they will do everything necessary to win the war. They have a distinct manpower and material advantage over Ukraine, but it will take some time for it to get going.

I'd say Ukraine has about 6-8 months to re-conquer as much as they can and dig in before the tidal wave hits them. Russia isn't going to negotiate until it get all of what it wants.

Until yesterday I thought Russia might've been disinclined to fight a real war and might've negotiated if Ukraine took back Kherson. They've now escalated and I'm afraid Ukraine will not stand a chance against a Russia on a real war-footing unless the west directly intervenes
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docb
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In reply to rgag12 • 7:12a, 9/21/22
AG
I disagree with you. Russia doesn't have 300,000 combat ready troops to throw into battle, there is a severe loss of equipment and Putin is likely to be dead in the next 6 months.
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Sq 17
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7:21a, 9/21/22
Russia has been fighting a real war and has been beaten badly over the last 4 weeks, If the Russians had tanks ,fuel , ammo, competent soldiers, air power etc they would have been using those resources over the last 4 weeks.

Maybe Russian can win by creating a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine but seems likely the EU will be able to resupply the Ukes through Poland which will lessen the humanitarian disaster and the Uke soldiers will have better supplies than the Russian invaders
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MouthBQ98
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7:23a, 9/21/22
AG
Russia needed this legal maneuver to lawfully increase mobilization efforts and get more forces to the war.
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Gilligan
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In reply to docb • 7:31a, 9/21/22
AG
docb said:
I disagree with you. Russia doesn't have 300,000 combat ready troops to throw into battle, there is a severe loss of equipment and Putin is likely to be dead in the next 6 months.
Even if they throw 300k of out of shape reservists and untrained, unwilling troops at them they will be ground up.

The article about the chips in the rockets / missiles being fired in Feb were dated 2014 / 2015. The chips they're pulling out now are 2022. RuZZia has blown its wad, but won't admit defeat.

A disorderly mob is no more an army than a heap of building materials is a house. - Socrates

Slava Ukraine!

RuZzia's missile problem - sorry on reddit
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to docb • 7:33a, 9/21/22
docb said:
I disagree with you. Russia doesn't have 300,000 combat ready troops to throw into battle, there is a severe loss of equipment and Putin is likely to be dead in the next 6 months.


I dont think putin will be dead in 6 months and this war is going to escalate.

The Ukrainian army better ramp it up and push Russia out before the Russians attempt to overwhelm them with flesh.


People like putin don't just go down without firing every shot they have.
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aginresearch
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7:43a, 9/21/22
AG
What materiel and troops does Russia really have? Not what is on paper but ready to deploy to the front lines condition. I'd argue this is nothing more than a last gasp desperate attempt to salvage an outright war (no matter Putin's semantics up to this point) that has gone disastrously wrong. I'd further posit that all this does is hasten the complete demographic collapse of Russia.

After Putin's address I'd support whatever we need to do (read US and NATO allies) to decapitate Russian leadership as I think that Putin has now devolved to a burn it all down philosophy. No longer should we fear the consequences of disarray in Russia. In fact we have a unique moment in history to completely obliterate a geostrategic enemy of this country and we should take advantage of it.
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jobu93
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7:56a, 9/21/22
AG
Russia HAD a material advantage but it's since been destroyed. They don't have enough of their T90 MBT and the Ukes have the Western world as an armory.

While Russia has a larger population the morale of their conscripts is terrible and I think their flash training is even worse.

There are two things Russia can do right now.
1. Continue to hit infrastructure in a manner to create a humanitarian crisis
2. WMD

Neither are tactics that produce a "win" for them and one is an absolute loss for them and maybe the world.

Strategically, Russia is neutered.
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