***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Waffledynamics
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1:15p, 9/20/22
AG
Yeah, okay.

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Waffledynamics
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1:16p, 9/20/22
AG
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:24p, 9/20/22
Waffledynamics said:
Yeah, okay.




Pretty easy to see what they're trying to do. Unless they're willing to back it up with full mobilization it's meaningless.

It would also put the ukes on the clock to go full speed ahead before the ruskies can actually mobilize whatever they have left
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:27p, 9/20/22
Waffledynamics said:


It will call into question the red lines that have been pushed by the west, ie, not directly attacking Russian soil. It still won't be considered Russian soil by the world but will be by Russian, which in their mind, will justify whatever decisions they want to make.

In short, this gimmick will fail just like every other thing the Russians have tried thus far.

BTW, where has The Debt gone?
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 1:29p, 9/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Yeah, okay.

yes... because we know Russia has such a long history of being against attacks of aggression on another sovereign nation within said nation's borders....

this is starting to have the same feel as anytime i hear kim jon-un talk about the extreme capabilities of N. Korea, or when my 4 year old talks about why he is winning the game against me that he just made up...
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Waffledynamics
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1:54p, 9/20/22
AG
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sclaff
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:05p, 9/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Yeah, okay.

Okay, so then there will be no reason not to continue pushing east, turning Rostov-on-Don into the new Mariupol and returning Belgorod back to Ukraine. Gotcha
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Who?mikejones!
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2:10p, 9/20/22
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FireAg
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2:16p, 9/20/22
AG
Been awhile since I looked through this thread...

So Russia still hasn't defeated Ukraine? The Ukranians continue to take stuff back?
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74OA
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:16p, 9/20/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to 74OA • 2:18p, 9/20/22
Doubtful. Might be putin just exerting power
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AgLA06
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In reply to FireAg • 2:19p, 9/20/22
AG
FireAg said:
Been awhile since I looked through this thread...

So Russia still hasn't defeated Ukraine? The Ukranians continue to take stuff back?


No offense, but really!?!?
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FireAg
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:21p, 9/20/22
AG
AgLA06 said:
FireAg said:
Been awhile since I looked through this thread...

So Russia still hasn't defeated Ukraine? The Ukranians continue to take stuff back?


No offense, but really!?!?
Yes really...

It was a simple question...
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to FireAg • 2:22p, 9/20/22
AG
FireAg said:
Been awhile since I looked through this thread...

So Russia still hasn't defeated Ukraine? The Ukranians continue to take stuff back?


In fact, Ukraine tore across the Northeast and took back thousands of sq km in like a week earlier this month.
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FireAg
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2:23p, 9/20/22
AG
Interesting...

How is Vlad still in power at this point?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to FireAg • 2:25p, 9/20/22
AG
Here is a link to a post a few pages back that has an animated map of the first 200 days, in case you want to see that progress.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/63011091
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:27p, 9/20/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Doubtful. Might be putin just exerting power


Put another way, his preferred consensus has yet to be reached.
He could claim since the west didn't do a thing when they overran Crimea, it's theirs now. Beyond that, TBD
Anything new in Azerbaijan or Georgia?
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FireAg
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:32p, 9/20/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Here is a link to a post a few pages back that has an animated map of the first 200 days, in case you want to see that progress.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/63011091
So basically, they have gone from closing on Kyiv to slowly losing their grip on the fringes in the Crimea?

Vlad got his ass kicked...
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FriscoKid
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In reply to FireAg • 2:37p, 9/20/22
AG
FireAg said:
Waffledynamics said:
Here is a link to a post a few pages back that has an animated map of the first 200 days, in case you want to see that progress.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3274372/replies/63011091
So basically, they have gone from closing on Kyiv to slowly losing their grip on the fringes in the Crimea?

Vlad got his ass kicked...
I'd assume this is why they are moving forward with the vote to just declare the territory Russian land. They can't win this with their military unless something changes drastically. Even if they draft 500.000 men into the war, I think they are running low on equipment.

But, this came at heavy price on Ukraine.
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agent-maroon
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In reply to FriscoKid • 2:39p, 9/20/22
AG
But they paid it so it should be theirs
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Waffledynamics
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2:39p, 9/20/22
AG
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FamousAgg
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In reply to FireAg • 2:54p, 9/20/22
Yes
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Waffledynamics
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2:54p, 9/20/22
AG
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FriscoKid
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3:00p, 9/20/22
AG


This is a Ukrainian official twitter account!!!!!
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2wealfth Man
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3:34p, 9/20/22
AG
Putin shouldn't get too close to windows right now
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 3:37p, 9/20/22
2wealfth Man said:
Putin shouldn't get too close to windows right now


Just look for the laser
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to 74OA • 3:48p, 9/20/22
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?
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TheGroupGuy
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3:50p, 9/20/22
Classic escalation to deescalate by Russians
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Eliminatus
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In reply to FireAg • 4:27p, 9/20/22
AG
FireAg said:
Been awhile since I looked through this thread...

So Russia still hasn't defeated Ukraine? The Ukranians continue to take stuff back?


To answer simply,

No

Yes

Quick summary is Putin invaded from east and north. East took a lot of land but got stonewalled after Ukes rallied. North was a borderline disaster for Putin as they tried to take Kiev. Resounding defeat and they pulled everything back out of Ukraine after losing a lot of people and material.

Then a period of almost stagnant stalemate as Ukes built up their forces and weathered an artillery duel with Russia. Basically an operational pause as they beat the **** out of each other with big guns. US HIMARS systems went into full effect and turned that tide mostly and then Ukes counter attacked in the east and pushed a LOT further and successfully than most imagined. Still an ongoing battle and it is no guaranteed thing but at every turn Russia has demonstrated incompetence and disfunction at nearly every level of military organization.

Barring nuclear intervention or complete mobilization I am pretty confident in saying that Russia is no longer able to defeat Ukraine at this point.

Russias ineptitude that no one in the west really foresaw mixed with Ukraine unity and force of will to resist along with our aid has turned this from a projected Russian victory to a "How does Russia salvage ANYTHING from this debacle" conversation. Also not downplaying the very real hardships the Ukes have suffered and are still suffering. They have also lost a lot and continue to do so. It is still a war and Russia is still fighting, however badly it may be.

Also war crimes galore all throughout.

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FireAg
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In reply to Eliminatus • 4:33p, 9/20/22
AG
Thank you…much obliged…
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lb3
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 4:42p, 9/20/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?
The official response is that they wanted to wait until all of Russia (Eastern Time Zones) was awake (daylight hours) so they are playing the pre-recorded message at 0800 Moscow time.

My guess is they wanted to have the border closed to all adult aged males before the announcement to prevent a rush for the exits.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 4:43p, 9/20/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?


Maybe not far off. The answer is basically, "**** off. We're winning, and we know it." Putin will have to declare outright war against Ukraine and fully mobilize, but I think they've lost so much equipment it may be pointless.

WTF are they going to use? Russia's lost (at a minimum) over 10% of the tanks it had on paper, and a bunch of those are probably rusting hulks or don't even exist. How are they going to establish air superiority? They can openly operate long range SAMs, and their aircraft are staying above area they control and avoiding seek and destroy missions to avoid being shot down. They've lost 50+ fixed wing aircraft.

All told, they've lost maybe $7 billion in equipment (maybe a billion in tanks, one to two billion in fixed wing aircraft, maybe 500 million in helicopters, 750 million with the Moskva, a few hundred more for their landing ships and patrol boats, a billion or more in radar equipment, and then a bunch more in IFV's, trucks, etc).

Committing more would be asking to have it picked off with even more inexperienced and unmotivated crews.

I have a hard time seeing the Russian military commanders seeing how they can win this
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ConstructionAg01
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4:51p, 9/20/22
AG
I still can't get past the 80 year old man with torture marks to his groin, testicles crushed, hands tied, and shot in the back of the head. And that is just one example of hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainian civilians treated like human trash by a godless evil regime that overestimated their own ability. Russia's military needs to suffer resounding defeat so badly their media can't hide the truth from their population. They can't be allowed to back out and just walk away from this disaster of their own creation.
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txags92
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In reply to lb3 • 4:56p, 9/20/22
AG
lb3 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?
The official response is that they wanted to wait until all of Russia (Eastern Time Zones) was awake (daylight hours) so they are playing the pre-recorded message at 0800 Moscow time.

My guess is they wanted to have the border closed to all adult aged males before the announcement to prevent a rush for the exits.
My guess is that Putin was having a bad day physically/mentally and wasn't up for a live broadcast. So they recorded it in multiple takes to cut any sign of his frailty/cognitive issues and will play the recording instead.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to lb3 • 5:11p, 9/20/22
AG
lb3 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
74OA said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Coup? (fingers crossed)


Another thought- anyway the Kremlin floated the speech and most of its contents to gauge the reaction from the west and is now recalculating their plans?
The official response is that they wanted to wait until all of Russia (Eastern Time Zones) was awake (daylight hours) so they are playing the pre-recorded message at 0800 Moscow time.

My guess is they wanted to have the border closed to all adult aged males before the announcement to prevent a rush for the exits.
Man! They really suck at messaging, don't they? Trumpet all day about a Putin and Defense Minister address that evening and then delay the address until the next morning? Russians are pretty dumb but many would get out of Dodge anyway.
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