***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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wildmen09
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Waffledynamics said:




I mean, we do everything with corporate businesses and industry. We weaponize PowerPoint everyday. We weaponize the Amazon cloud everyday. I sort of get what they're saying but nearly the entire military is built by private corportations.
JFABNRGR
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Waffledynamics said:

Poor Russia.

Quote:

Explosions reported in Valuyki of Belgorod region, Russian authorities blame Ukraine. Blackout and communications down


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-explosions-reported-in-valuyki-of-belgorod-region
Valuki HIMARS says hello!

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
JFABNRGR
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wildmen09 said:

Waffledynamics said:




I mean, we do everything with corporate businesses and industry. We weaponize PowerPoint everyday. We weaponize the Amazon cloud everyday. I sort of get what they're saying but nearly the entire military is built by private corportations.
Quasi Civilian Infrastructure MAY become a target of retaliation?

WTF about all the apartments, houses, schools, hospitals, entire blocks you *******s leveled. I hope there is nothing left of russia after this and some private contractor gets paid billions to go and dismantle all their nukes. Probably should be unit price contract based on a functioning weapon system given what we have seen the last 7 months of atrocities.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Waffledynamics
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Right away, Denys greets us and gets into the mapping. At about 15 seconds, he talks about the Ukrainian plan in the Northeast will likely be to go after Svatove and Troitske, the latter of which will be difficult because of a lack of a direct road route there. These towns, especially Troitske because of the railroads, are important supply hubs for the Russians. These are currently in range of HIMARS. I question if Troitske would really be the next target.

At 2:18, Denys explains that the Northern part the Luhansk area is pretty sparsely populated compared to the South, so fighting will be an especially slow grind in those cities compared to the Northern part. Perhaps Ukraine should slow down and get back to degrading Russia down.

Honestly, it sounds like Russia has finally regrouped and gone on defense. Ukraine needs to degrade them.

At 7:58, Denys mentions that Germany is going to give Ukraine 50 of some sort of armored vehicles and Mars rocket artillery systems, plus rockets.

At 9:35, he shows a Russian base in Nova Kakovka, in the Kherson region, that was wrecked by HIMARS.

At 11:07, he shows armored vehicles that Lithuania is donating. They look like medical transport.

At 11:13, Denys reports that the US will provide long range rockets (ATACMS?).

Good video. Lots of Europeans starting to step up more.
74OA
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Today's SITREP.
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https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-medic-testifies-on-detainee-conditions-32ee91d1ee7e9267ef229fcd7af75f04
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lb3
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JFABNRGR said:

wildmen09 said:

Waffledynamics said:




I mean, we do everything with corporate businesses and industry. We weaponize PowerPoint everyday. We weaponize the Amazon cloud everyday. I sort of get what they're saying but nearly the entire military is built by private corportations.
Quasi Civilian Infrastructure MAY become a target of retaliation?

WTF about all the apartments, houses, schools, hospitals, entire blocks you *******s leveled. I hope there is nothing left of russia after this and some private contractor gets paid billions to go and dismantle all their nukes. Probably should be unit price contract based on a functioning weapon system given what we have seen the last 7 months of atrocities.
If you want to take out Starlink, you send saboteurs to take out the ground stations. The two closest to Ukraine are near Warsaw and Istanbul.

The one in Poland is rural.


But in Istanbul, it's right off a major roadway.

JFABNRGR
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I see what your doing there, trying to get Poland and Turkey to the join the party in a more dramatic way.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Burrus86
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I understand the "political" frustration with several people on this thread commenting about the "United States spending billions on this conflict with all the economic crisis going on internally and world wide." I disagree with you because this is EXACTLY what "red" armies have done to us since the Korean War…including up to Afghanistan. That is how "super powers" treated each other…proxy wars. I am not a fan of the ARPA or the Inflation Reduction Act. However, I have zero problem using our tax dollars to kill Russians, particularly given what they have done to our military over the years. Pay back is a *****….and we have not formally sacrificed a single soldier on behalf of this conflict.
DOG XO 84
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lb3 said:

JFABNRGR said:

wildmen09 said:

Waffledynamics said:




I mean, we do everything with corporate businesses and industry. We weaponize PowerPoint everyday. We weaponize the Amazon cloud everyday. I sort of get what they're saying but nearly the entire military is built by private corportations.
Quasi Civilian Infrastructure MAY become a target of retaliation?

WTF about all the apartments, houses, schools, hospitals, entire blocks you *******s leveled. I hope there is nothing left of russia after this and some private contractor gets paid billions to go and dismantle all their nukes. Probably should be unit price contract based on a functioning weapon system given what we have seen the last 7 months of atrocities.
If you want to take out Starlink, you send saboteurs to take out the ground stations. The two closest to Ukraine are near Warsaw and Istanbul.

The one in Poland is rural.


But in Istanbul, it's right off a major roadway.


Wow! I'm not sure but you may have cleared up a mystery for me. These look very similar to a site i drive past alot in far west hill country. Couldn't imagine what they are, was thinking some NWS doppler site, i do have Starlink at ranch 20 miles away though. Hmmmm...
lb3
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JFABNRGR said:

I see what your doing there, trying to get Poland and Turkey to the join the party in a more dramatic way.
That thought did cross my mind when Russia started whining about Starlink. The few ground stations in Europe would be far easier to disable than trying to take out 2492 currently active satellites. Once SpaceX replaces these with their next gen satellites that have space-to-space laser data relays, local ground stations will no longer be needed.
Waffledynamics
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Some interesting geopolitical information that may have gotten overshadowed today.

Quote:

Foreign minister of Ukraine met with Foreign ministers of Romania and Moldova in Odesa, agreed to establish new tripartial cooperation format
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-foreign-minister-of-ukraine-met-with-foreign
Eliminatus
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Burrus86 said:

I understand the "political" frustration with several people on this thread commenting about the "United States spending billions on this conflict with all the economic crisis going on internally and world wide." I disagree with you because this is EXACTLY what "red" armies have done to us since the Korean War…including up to Afghanistan. That is how "super powers" treated each other…proxy wars. I am not a fan of the ARPA or the Inflation Reduction Act. However, I have zero problem using our tax dollars to kill Russians, particularly given what they have done to our military over the years. Pay back is a *****….and we have not formally sacrificed a single soldier on behalf of this conflict.


Couldn't have said it better. For those who follow this stuff long term, this war is CHEAP and the benefits we have already gained are staggering. Cost to benefit ratio is simply something we have not seen in generations.

Plus like you say, the petty side of me is fine watching all these Russkies blow up and die. Payback for our Vietnam veterans who had to watch packed North Vietnamese ports stuffed with Russian cargo ships carrying the very arms that were going to be killing them in the following weeks and months.
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PA24
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Eliminatus said:

Burrus86 said:

I understand the "political" frustration with several people on this thread commenting about the "United States spending billions on this conflict with all the economic crisis going on internally and world wide." I disagree with you because this is EXACTLY what "red" armies have done to us since the Korean War…including up to Afghanistan. That is how "super powers" treated each other…proxy wars. I am not a fan of the ARPA or the Inflation Reduction Act. However, I have zero problem using our tax dollars to kill Russians, particularly given what they have done to our military over the years. Pay back is a *****….and we have not formally sacrificed a single soldier on behalf of this conflict.


Couldn't have said it better. For those who follow this stuff long term, this war is CHEAP and the benefits we have already gained are staggering. Cost to benefit ratio is simply something we have not seen in generations.

Plus like you say, the petty side of me is fine watching all these Russkies blow up and die. Payback for our Vietnam veterans who had to watch packed North Vietnamese ports stuffed with Russian cargo ships carrying the very arms that were going to be killing them in the following weeks and months.
Solid position.

Actually, the humiliation of Putin on the world stage is awesome. Ukraine has earned the respect they are getting.

Dude is done,
P.U.T.U
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Putin "annexed" Crimea and shot down a passenger jet and the world turned a blind eye. I wouldn't say he is done with our weak world leaders. Sad times
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Significant damage to hydrotechical infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih as result of new Russian missile strikes, - head of regional administration


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-september-significant-damage-to-hydrotechical-infrastructure
Waffledynamics
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Gilligan
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Eliminatus said:

Burrus86 said:

I understand the "political" frustration with several people on this thread commenting about the "United States spending billions on this conflict with all the economic crisis going on internally and world wide." I disagree with you because this is EXACTLY what "red" armies have done to us since the Korean War…including up to Afghanistan. That is how "super powers" treated each other…proxy wars. I am not a fan of the ARPA or the Inflation Reduction Act. However, I have zero problem using our tax dollars to kill Russians, particularly given what they have done to our military over the years. Pay back is a *****….and we have not formally sacrificed a single soldier on behalf of this conflict.


Couldn't have said it better. For those who follow this stuff long term, this war is CHEAP and the benefits we have already gained are staggering. Cost to benefit ratio is simply something we have not seen in generations.

Plus like you say, the petty side of me is fine watching all these Russkies blow up and die. Payback for our Vietnam veterans who had to watch packed North Vietnamese ports stuffed with Russian cargo ships carrying the very arms that were going to be killing them in the following weeks and months.
I wish my Dad had lived long enough to see it.
benchmark
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Waffledynamics said:

Right away, Denys greets us and gets into the mapping. At about 15 seconds, he talks about the Ukrainian plan in the Northeast will likely be to go after Svatove and Troitske, the latter of which will be difficult because of a lack of a direct road route there. These towns, especially Troitske because of the railroads, are important supply hubs for the Russians. These are currently in range of HIMARS. I question if Troitske would really be the next target.
Taking Troitske would be a big deal because it's the last Russian rail crossing into northern Ukraine. This would force Russian rail supplies to move through eastern Luhansk and Crimea ... making Belgorod Oblast significantly less important as a Russian logistics hub.

Link: Ukraine Rail Network Map

Also, yesterday's report of attacks inside Russia at Valuyki raises questions not previously discussed. With Ukrainian advances to the Russian border ... are there US restrictions on using GMLRS to destroy targets inside Russia?
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Explosion reported near air base in Melitopol


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-september-explosion-reported-near-air-base-in-melitopol
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin is responding to the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast by doubling down on crypto-mobilization, rather than setting conditions for general mobilization.

The Kremlin has almost certainly drained a large proportion of the forces originally at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Ukrainian ground attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.

Russian-appointed occupation officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a landing at the Kinsburn Spit (a narrow peninsula of the Crimean Peninsula).

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults and are reinforcing positions on the Eastern Axis.

The Russian proxy Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) is likely attempting to stop its administrators from fleeing ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the DNR.

```
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-15
Waffledynamics
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Proc92
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I don't think payback is a sound foreign policy. I'd rather think about what is best for the country as a result of the possible action. Maybe the result is the same and military support offers the best result long term, but payback should not be a basis for military conflict support.
Waffledynamics
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More on those two towns:

Eliminatus
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Proc92 said:

I don't think payback is a sound foreign policy. I'd rather think about what is best for the country as a result of the possible action. Maybe the result is the same and military support offers the best result long term, but payback should not be a basis for military conflict support.


It's not the basis. It's just an added bonus.

The basis is we have received immense levels of military intelligence and weapons performance data along with a huge shift in geopolitical power of one of our near peers. "Near peer" that is. Our weapons designers, evaluators, and procurers are all working overtime on this situation. I work in defense and the boon we have seen from this war is already tangible and will very likely save us money in the long run as we see what works and why in real time.

This Ukraine war is going to benefit our own next conflict just as much if we were fighting Russia ourselves. We have learned so much already and I promise you our strategies have already been affected by what we have seen to date over there.
FarmerJohn
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I am not in the arms industry but I can see this conflict spurring the proliferation of drones to smaller and smaller unit sizes, even squad level. I can also see anti-drone warfare moving a lot higher in the priorities.
Proc92
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Sure, that's why I said maybe the result is the same and it is worth it. But nothing in the original post came close to any of those reasons, it was pure payback as why it made sense to him.
aggiehawg
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Interesting pitch from Wagner Group to prisoners to sign up for six months.
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian army shelling Ochakiv with MLRS


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/16-september-russian-army-shelling-ochakiv-with-mlrs

This is Southwest of Mykolaiv.

I've been noticing more reports of Russian artillery hitting behind the front lines in this region as the offensive continues.
P.U.T.U
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From a few post up Russia said Ukraine conducted a landing on the Kinburn Spit which is just across the area where Russia bombed. Likely Ukraine is using that as a launching pad to get on Crimea. Honestly it does not appear like a good landing spot and leaves nowhere to retreat. It is one of the shorter jumps but tactically it makes no sense. I think this is Russia trying to claim victory

Kinburn Spit
FriscoKid
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aezmvp
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P.U.T.U said:

From a few post up Russia said Ukraine conducted a landing on the Kinburn Spit which is just across the area where Russia bombed. Likely Ukraine is using that as a launching pad to get on Crimea. Honestly it does not appear like a good landing spot and leaves nowhere to retreat. It is one of the shorter jumps but tactically it makes no sense. I think this is Russia trying to claim victory

Kinburn Spit
That's a super pro-Russia site just FYI.
txags92
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P.U.T.U said:

From a few post up Russia said Ukraine conducted a landing on the Kinburn Spit which is just across the area where Russia bombed. Likely Ukraine is using that as a launching pad to get on Crimea. Honestly it does not appear like a good landing spot and leaves nowhere to retreat. It is one of the shorter jumps but tactically it makes no sense. I think this is Russia trying to claim victory

Kinburn Spit
Sounds like the entire supposition rests on the claims of the guy the orcs installed to run Kherson and he sounds very "Iraqi Information Minister"-esque in his claims.
P.U.T.U
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All of the searches I did were from pro Russian sites, that is why I said it didn't make sense so it was probably Russian propaganda

Unless its a SOF sabotage mission I don't think you will see Ukraine put boots on mainland Crimea until they knock out more bases and logistic hubs in Crimea. Plus until they get on the mainland weapon systems like Neptunes cannot hit Russian sea assets.
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