***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,613,895 Views | 47853 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by 74OA
P.U.T.U
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I think a lot of issues come from the change to the USSR to Russia was only a veil to cover things. For a large part the core stayed the same. You took away power from the Soviet republics and gave it to the oligarchs which corrupted the businesses. Now the kids of the oligarchs have control of the money and are running the country much like in the Soviet days so they maintain power.

Same as the military/intelligence programs. The KGB is no more but has been replaced with a model of the FSB and SVR. When you go in deeper the SVR and Russian gangs like the Bratva have almost become one in the same. The lines over who has power and control between the groups is blurred.

Private military groups like Wagner are considered illegal in Russia yet still train with the Russian military on Russian bases. The leader of Wagner has direct ties to Putin and the SVR so they handle their dirty work.

The similarities of all this is corruption, you have business, government, and mafia bosses running the country and taking all of the money they can. You can see this with the military equipment, tanks are supposed to have anti-armor panels but some are just rubber filled blocks. The list of failures can go on and on.

Russia was already a dying country before the war, now it seems as they are slowly putting the nail in their own coffin. The age of death for citizens was lower than the retirement age and couple that with killing a generation of working age males and I do not see how they survive the next generation.

Churchill knew what the Soviets would do after WWII and that is why he wanted to invade (operation Unthinkable). He was right but I don't think he saw them fall so hard after the cold war and likely after the war with Ukraine. Corruption has been the biggest killer in Russia the past century
Waffledynamics
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Looks like deployments are back on.

Waffledynamics
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Quote:

2 more missile strikes at the area of hydrotechnical infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-2-more-missile-strikes-at-the-area-of-hydrotechnical
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Ammunition depot exploded in Mospyne


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-ammunition-depot-exploded-in-mospyne

This is in the Donetsk region.
ABATTBQ11
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74OA said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

74OA said:

It took Putin two decades to remold the Russian army. I'm not sure he has enough time left to start over again.

"Barros said that it will likely take "a generation to recreate" the Russian officer corps, which is "definitely going to have a long-term strategic impact on the net assessment for Russia's conventional military."

GUTTED


Spoiler alert: He didn't remold it. It's the same army it always was.
Actually, I think "remold" is spot-on. Putin changed the army's shape with battalion tactical groups and other "reforms" but failed to alter its corrupt composition.


I wouldn't call lipstick on a pig remolding though
TXAggie2011
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one MEEN Ag said:

AgLA06 said:

SouthTex99 said:

He's well known geo political strategist and author of 4 books you'd probably really enjoy. I'm almost through his latest one "The End of the World is Just Beginning". It is excellent.

He's known for using demographic trends as a crystal ball to peer into the future. Not optimistic on China's staying power.


There's practically nothing I his Wiki other than his books. I looked at his website and his ideas and books intrigue me. However, him being a part of a think tank in Austin gives me pause. The geopolitical maps he has of the world are extremely fascinating by themselves. And it's a topic I've always been interested in.
Judge him by his merits. His long form youtube videos where he speaks at conferences are incredible.

He also does suffer from a bit of TDS but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, he has good things to say about Trump's foreign policy and TDS doesn't change opining about China and Russia's population decline.
Stratfor isn't a think tank. It is a private intelligence firm.
Demosthenes81
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Meanwhile…


Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
GeorgiAg
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The vultures are beginning to circle.
74OA
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Update on Ukraine's loot from the recent offensives. GOODIES
74OA
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Turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the dam on the Ingulets River. COUNTERMOVE
SouthTex99
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Demosthenes81
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74OA said:

Turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the dam on the Ingulets River. COUNTERMOVE


From reading that it seems the Ukes blew up a different dam to relieve the flooding from the Russian attack on the dam upstream.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
Waffledynamics
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Quote:

Russian army shelled Apostolove with MLRS Uragan


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-russian-army-shelled-apostolove-with-mlrs-uragan

This is north of the Kherson pocket, my guess is they're targeting supplies and logistics.
Gilligan
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74OA said:

Turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the dam on the Ingulets River. COUNTERMOVE
Ukrainian authorities this Thursday announced the demolition of a dam in Chornohorka in the Dnepropetrovsk region in order to bring about a lowering of the water level in the Ingulets River, which was caused by a rocket attack by Russian troops on the region's hydraulic infrastructure.

Context Matters...
FamousAgg
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I guess they are gonna use this as a chance to take South Ossetia?
2wealfth Man
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SouthTex99 said:

War sucks but if Georgia is serious about independence this is their moment. Cannot wait and hope for a better landscape. I just wonder what kind of equipment they have to carry this out.
Russia (ergo: Putin) may go more extreme if he is feeling like there are limited options and things are crashing everywhere. Keep an eye on this.
Waffledynamics
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GeorgiAg
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I guess Elon isn't going to go anywhere near Russian any time soon.
SwigAg11
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GeorgiAg said:

I guess Elon isn't going to go anywhere near Russian any time soon.
No one from the US should go anywhere near Russia any time soon.
74OA
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Gilligan said:

74OA said:

Turns out it was Ukraine which blew up the dam on the Ingulets River. COUNTERMOVE
Ukrainian authorities this Thursday announced the demolition of a dam in Chornohorka in the Dnepropetrovsk region in order to bring about a lowering of the water level in the Ingulets River, which was caused by a rocket attack by Russian troops on the region's hydraulic infrastructure.

Context Matters...
Which is why I labeled the link as "countermove". After all, I'd already read the context.
agent-maroon
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GeorgiAg said:

I guess Elon isn't going to go anywhere near Russian any time soon.

Hopefully he is avoiding upper floor windows and yacht rides for the foreseeable future. He has the money so let's hope he has funded his personal security above and beyond the normal billionaire levels.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
AgLA06
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2wealfth Man said:

SouthTex99 said:

War sucks but if Georgia is serious about independence this is their moment. Cannot wait and hope for a better landscape. I just wonder what kind of equipment they have to carry this out.
Russia (ergo: Putin) may go more extreme if he is feeling like there are limited options and things are crashing everywhere. Keep an eye on this.


Good thing someone feels the need to state this on every page. A broken clock has been exponentially more accurate on this topic so far.

He didn't do it when his surprise attack was thrown back into Belarus or when his forces were pushed back across the border from Chernobyl, or when just about every other country chose the side of Ukraine. Or even when his army suffered the most humiliating defeat since the early stages of WW2. This (inset latest incompetent or humiliating defeat here) is when he nukes the world.
docb
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Right now would be a great time to introduce ATACMS for Ukraine and send a huge salvo all over Crimean targets while they already are already in disarray.
P.U.T.U
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Think they are already there, just limiting their use. I'd wait until they get all the way to the river and start taking out targets a week or two before. Also once they cross the river they need to start looking at sea based targets since that may be Russias best counter assault platform. Plus they need to take out more planes since Russia has several bases scattered around Crimea
LMCane
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docb said:

Right now would be a great time to introduce ATACMS for Ukraine and send a huge salvo all over Crimean targets while they already are already in disarray.
wait until the Melitopol offensive begins and the Ukrainian Army ends up just to the north of the Crimea when they can use tube artillery and HIMARS to target the bridges
LMCane
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

GeorgiAg said:

Wow. Ruskies paying the price. Artillery hit, then they back the car to right where it hit before. Not so smart, Ivan.


More evidence Russians are taking civilian cars to try to save their miserable lives? This one surely didn't pay off.
nothing screams "everything going according to plan"

more than 4 ill trained Russkies running around like a Monty Python skit,

jumping into a 30 year old East European civilian car

and getting blown to pieces.
PJYoung
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P.U.T.U said:

Think they are already there, just limiting their use. I'd wait until they get all the way to the river and start taking out targets a week or two before. Also once they cross the river they need to start looking at sea based targets since that may be Russias best counter assault platform. Plus they need to take out more planes since Russia has several bases scattered around Crimea

Not for long.

2wealfth Man
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LMCane said:

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

GeorgiAg said:

Wow. Ruskies paying the price. Artillery hit, then they back the car to right where it hit before. Not so smart, Ivan.


More evidence Russians are taking civilian cars to try to save their miserable lives? This one surely didn't pay off.
nothing screams "everything going according to plan"

more than 4 ill trained Russkies running around like a Monty Python skit,

jumping into a 30 year old East European civilian car

and getting blown to pieces.
even more amazing is that one of those dudes actually gets out of the car. I don't understand how he lived?
PJYoung
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benchmark said:

Good listen ...


This was really good.
agent-maroon
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2wealfth Man said:

LMCane said:

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

GeorgiAg said:

Wow. Ruskies paying the price. Artillery hit, then they back the car to right where it hit before. Not so smart, Ivan.


More evidence Russians are taking civilian cars to try to save their miserable lives? This one surely didn't pay off.
nothing screams "everything going according to plan"

more than 4 ill trained Russkies running around like a Monty Python skit,

jumping into a 30 year old East European civilian car

and getting blown to pieces.
even more amazing is that one of those dudes actually gets out of the car. I don't understand how he lived?

Didn't look like he made it all the way out of the burning car but he was sure trying. Hard to imagine that he lived too much longer.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Waffledynamics
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Poor Russia.

Quote:

Explosions reported in Valuyki of Belgorod region, Russian authorities blame Ukraine. Blackout and communications down


https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-september-explosions-reported-in-valuyki-of-belgorod-region
PJYoung
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I'm all for stepping it up now that Russia is on its way out.

Payback.
benchmark
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Waffledynamics said:

Explosions reported in Valuyki of Belgorod region, Russian authorities blame Ukraine. Blackout and communications down
Noteworthy. Good catch.

Valuyki is a significant Russian logistics hub with a large railyard that's about 20 miles from the border ... and now within M777 range because of Ukraine's offensive. Also, about a month ago there was a very large depot explosion in nearby Timonovo (about 6 miles NW) ... but we never heard a peep after and it was explained as another 'spontaneous combustion.'

Total WAG but I'd wager Valuyki/Timonovo is a major troop/equip concentration area for recently retreated Russians waiting for redeployment.
Ag In Ok
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For those who were in OIF and OEF - were the Russians providing weapons to the other side? Aside from what the chechans brought with them.
LMCane
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Ag In Ok said:

For those who were in OIF and OEF - were the Russians providing weapons to the other side? Aside from what the chechans brought with them.
Iraq's entire military was Soviet/Russian armaments

Russians also bailed out Syria with the Russian Air Force (hopefully mostly littering the Ukrainian countryside now)
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