AgLA06 said:

---

Proc92 said:

---

Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

---

He can't declare war and mobilize without drawing in Europe and Nato at this point. The second he does so Poland and other border countries are threatened. Instead of just supplying weapons and tactics to places he shouldn't be, bombs and missiles start landing on Russian soil and he loses whats left of his military. Then what does China and North Korea do? They can't sit back and do nothing.

My only hope is he's dead from inside the Kremlin before he can give the order.

---

Why would nato need to get involved. So long as Russia kept it to Ukraine, why would the status quo change?

That being said, should he actually declare war and mobilize as such, it will be his demise. I think he knows that.

Maybe that's why all these oligarchs are suddenly dying of random accidents. Putin is removing obstacles to full mobilization?

Agthatbuilds said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

Proc92 said:

---

Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

---

He can't declare war and mobilize without drawing in Europe and Nato at this point. The second he does so Poland and other border countries are threatened. Instead of just supplying weapons and tactics to places he shouldn't be, bombs and missiles start landing on Russian soil and he loses whats left of his military. Then what does China and North Korea do? They can't sit back and do nothing.

My only hope is he's dead from inside the Kremlin before he can give the order.

---

Why would nato need to get involved. So long as Russia kept it to Ukraine, why would the status quo change?

That being said, should he actually declare war and mobilize as such, it will be his demise. I think he knows that.

Maybe that's why all these oligarchs are suddenly dying of random accidents. Putin is removing obstacles to full mobilization?

---

Because Poland and Romania would rather fight russia away from their people and infrastructure and in the future have a buffer state friendly to you.

This is moot anyway, they cant conduct a special operation why are we even discussing potential success of full scale mobilization. The only thing they can do is send resources to their demise while terrorizing innocent people and destroying their infrastructure.

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

M142 is new. The rockets used are not. The M142 uses the same rocket pods as the M270, which was developed in the early 80's. At least some of the munitions being used are up for replacement.

---

The GMLRS they are firing were introduced in 2005, not 1980.

"Belt and suspenders"

Lmao

74OA said:

---

The point being made is that the US is achieving a huge strategic win at comparatively small cost.

---

Not sure about the small cost because it may ultimately cost us $2-3 trillion ... but the alternative is appeasement and the probability of a much higher cost within a few yrs. We've learned a lot about Russia's mindset the last 6 months. If we let Ukraine easily fall into Russia's orbit, there's little doubt we'd be facing hard choices defending NATO countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and possibly Poland within a few years.

We spent $2 trillion on the 20 year war in Afghanistan ... and another $2 trillion on the Iraq/Syria war. So, assuming the Russia threat can be effectively neutralized for $2-3 trillion, it seems to be the least expensive alternative given our options. The better of two evils ... and hopefully, Europe will pick up to tab for rebuilding.

GAC06 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

M142 is new. The rockets used are not. The M142 uses the same rocket pods as the M270, which was developed in the early 80's. At least some of the munitions being used are up for replacement.

---

The GMLRS they are firing were introduced in 2005, not 1980.

---

What is the shelf life for those?

I'm sure Lockheed Martin is upset they are using up all their old missiles.

Ukraine's Army was likely as surprised as so many others with the speed & success of their Kharkiv offensive over the last five days. It is & continues to be brilliant.

But as one who saw both success & failure in combat, I have some concerns...

Here a 🧵on some thoughts.
1/

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) September 13, 2022

Where are you getting the $2-3 trillion estimate? It may be a good guess, but I wanted to see if it was published.

GAC06 said:

---

ABATTBQ11 said:

---

M142 is new. The rockets used are not. The M142 uses the same rocket pods as the M270, which was developed in the early 80's. At least some of the munitions being used are up for replacement.

---

The GMLRS they are firing were introduced in 2005, not 1980.

---

I should be more clear. M142 is new, but the technology it's based on and using is not. The rockets they're using aren't from the 80's, but the GMLRS developed in 2005 have already been given rocket motor upgrades, and those production models are being phased out. What's out of production and closest to the expiration date is what's being sent. So yes, HIMARS is new, but they're still being given some obsolete (to us) stuff.

AgBank said:

---

Where are you getting the $2-3 trillion estimate? It may be a good guess, but I wanted to see if it was published.

---

The $2-3 trillion is only a guess based on what we spent in Afghanistan and Iraq/Syria. No one knows how long this war will last or cost.

At least the Ukes have proven very crafty and resourceful through this whole mess. This garage sale stuff left behind by the Russians needs to be evaluated carefully since some of it must be the trash of the trash. But it still is highly valuable to keep the rout going.

Quote:

---

At least the Ukes have proven very crafty and resourceful through this whole mess.

---

They have been impressive, that's for sure. And the differences between ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians can't be starker.

AgLA06 said:

---

Proc92 said:

---

Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

---

He can't declare war and mobilize without drawing in Europe and Nato at this point. The second he does so Poland and other border countries are threatened. Instead of just supplying weapons and tactics to places he shouldn't be, bombs and missiles start landing on Russian soil and he loses whats left of his military. Then what does China and North Korea do? They can't sit back and do nothing.

My only hope is he's dead from inside the Kremlin before he can give the order.

---

He also can't mobilize without destroying the Russian economy. Russia had a severe manpower shortage before the war and its only gotten worse since. Taking scarce manpower out of already struggling industries and farms would be disastrous.

Interesting tidbits from war translated.com

"Kherson direction

Significant losses on the Russian side, 810th marines brigade lost 85% of personnel, rest of the forces en-masse refuse to return to the combat zone. The 810th brigade is dying for the second time, the first time it was destroyed in Mariupol.

Regarding low morale in Russian forces. Ukrainian south command report that junior officers of the Russian army are looking for contacts with Ukrainian security forces to surrender. Units in the right bank of Dnieper are deserting. At first, Russians with helicopters attempted to search for deserters. Then 1,300 Rosgvardia Chechens were transferred to help find deserters. Junior commanders themselves began withdrawing troops dozens of kilometers from Ukrainian positions. They have nowhere else to go, this is the effect of weeks-long precision strikes on crossing and ammo caches."

"Other

• Russian border forces are aware of Russian passports given on the territory of Ukraine. These people are not allowed to Russia, leading to significant queues at the border.
• In places where Russian forces demonstrate resistance, Ukrainians are firing shells with leaflets calling for surrender. An unofficial report says there are 5,000 Russian POWs in Ukrainian hands.
• All countries in Europe have made the choice of which side they are on, no one has doubts Ukraine needs weapons supplies to achieve victory. Even Hungarian Orban needs to decide his political position. Serbs have opened their eyes and realised they cannot have a conflict with Kosovo as Russia will not be able to help them. This is all thanks to the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive.
• In Russia, a number of inner political processes have started that will only continue increasing. First, officials start losing their fear of the Kremlin. Local city deputies in Moscow and St. Petersburg declared that Putin must be removed from power. This is a very significant development given that Russia is a dictatorship. Also, a number of federal TV representatives are concerned with the fact that so much territory was lost in just five days. Russian soldiers cannot be forced to fight for Ukrainian lands. There are calls to both shoot or spare Russian generals, who on their side are starting to openly oppose Putin. This argument is increasing. Zhdanov believes this is similar to the late 1930s in the USSR. Putin has an option to reveal the conspiracy of the generals who lost the war and start chopping their heads. If he doesn't, the generals might unite with oligarchs and hang Putin.
• Now oligarchs are given orders to form private military companies. This means Putin is not even counting on the Armed Forces. The money will not come from the state budget but from the oligarch's pockets, creating an even more dangerous situation.
• Iranian UAVs that Iran denied delivering turned out to be a flop, they are very weak and difficult to use, so unlikely to be seen in Ukraine."

https://wartranslated.com/update-from-ukrainian-military-expert-oleg-zhdanov-12th-september/

HIMARS is going to be obsolete in 3-5 years due to existing army modernization efforts rolling out in FY23.

If you're referring to the precision strike missile, it will be fired from HIMARS and M270's along with extended range GMLRS that are contracted for years to come. The precision strike missile will replace ATACMS

RONA Ag said:

---

bonfarr said:

---

If that guy actually believes Ukraine will pay for any of the weapons and supplies we have given them he is either naive or stupid.

---

If you don't think the economic return for Europe switching off Russian Crude to American LNG is worth it for some of our surplus inventory then you are crazy.

Germany just contracted to have its energy supplied by US LNG.

This is going to turn into a huge economic windfall as Europe isolates Russia and restricts china.

---

I made no comment at all about what the end result benefit would be just a rejection of the Tweet comment about expecting the US to be paid for all of the equipment sent under Lend Lease. You and the previous poster can continue to pontificate about geopolitical outcomes all you want with no comment from me.

Russian reporting on the AFU breaking through the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast, which has been in the line of contact for several weeks now. pic.twitter.com/uzcaU830pP

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 13, 2022

Pretty surprised that they want to do this right now. I would have thought that they had the Russians pinned on the wrong side of the river and they could just wait it out. Going to be a lot of deaths on both sides.

Not if the Russians surrender em masse, seems to happening everywhere.

FriscoKid said:

---

Russian reporting on the AFU breaking through the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast, which has been in the line of contact for several weeks now. pic.twitter.com/uzcaU830pP

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 13, 2022

Pretty surprised that they want to do this right now. I would have thought that they had the Russians pinned on the wrong side of the river and they could just wait it out. Going to be a lot of deaths on both sides.

---

I'm somewhat as well. Then again. They may never have the initiative like now again. If they route their side of the river it's likely Kersion breaks and runs just like Izium. They might be able to take all the way to Melitopol and split the south from the east.

FriscoKid said:

---

Russian reporting on the AFU breaking through the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast, which has been in the line of contact for several weeks now. pic.twitter.com/uzcaU830pP

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 13, 2022

Pretty surprised that they want to do this right now. I would have thought that they had the Russians pinned on the wrong side of the river and they could just wait it out. Going to be a lot of deaths on both sides.

---

Kherson geographically IMO is way tougher than the East and NE. The ground is much flatter, space between cover/concealment is larger, the towns between are smaller, and the LOAs can be seen so much further away. Then you have the mighty Dnipro and Pivdennyi Buh Major rivers along with the smaller ones coming off of them. The coast on the west. Meanwhile the orcs have Crimea resupply, air support, R&R, etc just behind them a 1.5 hr car ride, a short rotary hop, of a very quick sortie with fixed wing.

The orcs are in chaos and the UKR is likely taking advantage of this. Crimea is quite strategically located but if they can't take this back and want to retake control of the Dnipro to include Meltitopul and Mariupol then they at least have to take back control to the 2014 line creating that buffer on the Dnipro and blocking land access from SW to those two key cities. This will incur great sacrifice, but if their longterm goal is to oust russia than NOW is the best time while they have the initiative.

Of note a few days ago President Erdogan publicly announced Crimea as belonging to Ukraine. This is a significant indicator that there is at least some global power support for kicking russia out and returning control to its rightful place. Given today's restrictions of people leaving east across the Kertch Bridge russia must believe this is a serious threat as well.

lb3 said:

---

IZIUM/1330 UTC 13 SEP/ UK Intel discloses that the prestigious Russian 1st Guards’ Tank Army has been destroyed. This top-teir force is the largest single unit lost by Russia since World War II. Information is evolving, but captured RU troops may number in 10s of thousands. pic.twitter.com/QhXUgCHtzr

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 13, 2022

---

Whoa that's massive - it true cannot be understated. That many POWs from a single battle, led from red square returning to Russia in the future will change a nation.

AgLA06 said:

---

FriscoKid said:

---

Russian reporting on the AFU breaking through the Russian positions at Davydiv Brid in Kherson Oblast, which has been in the line of contact for several weeks now. pic.twitter.com/uzcaU830pP

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 13, 2022

Pretty surprised that they want to do this right now. I would have thought that they had the Russians pinned on the wrong side of the river and they could just wait it out. Going to be a lot of deaths on both sides.

---

I'm somewhat as well. Then again. They may never have the initiative like now again. If they route their side of the river it's likely Kersion breaks and runs just like Izium. They might be able to take all the way to Melitopol and split the south from the east.

---

You may be discounting a couple of factors. With a conflict like this you have already stretched Russian logistics. By forcing the Russians to supply multiple fronts simultaneously along routes that are being targeted or under pressure the Ukes can force the Russians to expose their logistics train further.

Next due to the repeated and successful attacks on Russian supply dumps and the material left behind in the NE you're going to make the Russians choose where to move their secondary and tertiary supplies inside the theater and that will create more opportunities to wreck havoc on their logistics system as well and leave forces undersupplied in areas like Melitpol and Mariupol.

Another factor will be the mental/psychological of getting inside the Russians' OODA loop, by forcing them inside that side you shorten Russia's ability to make the right decisions and with the focus on degrading Russian senior leadership and their style of military command it will be more and more difficult to respond effectively and that will further erode morale and will to combat inside Russian forces. Also the Russians have a significant number of people and resources in Crimea if you create pressure and chaos by advancing and capturing Kherson will push there or near Mariupol or Melitpol you'll create major chaos getting people out of Crimea and make further resupply and reinforcement of Crimea very, very difficult if not impossible.

So you can't just look at it one way, there are a lot of factors.

I feel like this was meant for Frisco. I pretty much said the same thing as you, just much less words.

aggiehawg said:

---

As the Russian Army couldn't be bothered to remove the wreckage of Su-30SM 'RF-81773' that came down in a formerly Russian-controlled part of Kharkiv Oblast, Western intelligence agencies are now the proud owner of a slightly dented SAP-518SM 'Regata' jamming pod. pic.twitter.com/9BN5dPNQvi

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) September 12, 2022

---

Our foreign materiel exploitation experts are undoubtedly having a field day examining all the high-end Russian EW, signals, radar, etc. gear captured since the start of the war. Examples:

POD
DECOY
EW