If that guy actually believes Ukraine will pay for any of the weapons and supplies we have given them he is either naive or stupid.

"Some people are asking me for proof…it's an analysis…and it's by someone else
You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it's not repaid it doesn't change the main point"

Concur. The performance of HIMARS in Ukraine has caused real problems for the mission profile and budget for JSF for that portion of its mission that was to engage ground targets <70km from the front i.e. HIMARS is destroying targets with a weapon system under the JFLCC at pennies on the dollar to what it would cost for those targets to be destroyed by weapons owned by the JFACC. The definition of deep strike is now deeper because of how the Ukrainians have employed HIMARS.

Also worth noting is that the US Army is still pursuing the Extended Range Cannon Artillery because the Army recognizes that they need both the range of HIMARS and a higher rate of fire. The Marine Corps has lost its mind and is entranced (because the Commandant is entranced) with using islands as firebases to fight the Chinese Navy.

Always been a fan of Zeihan. Basically states that the capture of intact arms and ammunition with the capture of Izyum is the "largest transfer of weapons since WW2".

RONA Ag said:

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bonfarr said:

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If that guy actually believes Ukraine will pay for any of the weapons and supplies we have given them he is either naive or stupid.

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If you don't think the economic return for Europe switching off Russian Crude to American LNG is worth it for some of our surplus inventory then you are crazy.

Germany just contracted to have its energy supplied by US LNG.

This is going to turn into a huge economic windfall as Europe isolates Russia and restricts china.

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It will be a windfall for my Chevron for sure, but this will likely set a very high new floor for Henry Hub gas prices locally in the USA since there is now a global market for our historically landlocked and very cheap NG.

📸 Residents of #Crimea are uploading pics of announcements, accord. to which from now on people can leave the #Peninsula via the Kerch Bridge only between 11am-1pm with IDs. Persons liable for military service must get permission from the local Commissariat with a return date. pic.twitter.com/OcM8ZG8KEh

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) September 12, 2022

Something got lost in translation for me. Russians in Crimea cannot cross the bridge back into Russia? Worries about the bridge being taken out behind that?

They want people to return to Crimea in case they need to conscript them.

I imagine people attempting to flee are disrupting military logistics and they also may believe conscripts might be deserting amongst the civilians.

How long would it take for Russia to spin up national mobilization and take this out of the realm of "special military operation"? Will we see this escalate after the lines settle out from this offensive?

Heard a pundit say it would take minimum 4 to 6 mo nths

aggiehawg said:

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Something got lost in translation for me. Russians in Crimea cannot cross the bridge back into Russia? Worries about the bridge being taken out behind that?

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Several possibilities.

They need whole bridge for military using both sides of bridge to either reinforce or flee. Cant be flee because they're isn't enough equipment left to run east like fleeing a hurricane out of Galveston. Could be for general mobilization happening but I don't think so and we will know in a day or so with overhead SAT or today with russian posted pics.

This leaves forcing residents to stay in AO Area of Operation and for possible conscriptment but this never works too well, even though the russians never stop trying it. Working to clear cities full of civilians is a nightmare especially when they aren't friendly to you.

In the end I just see this as a move which will turn their own people against them and scare their own military that the boogey man is coming.

Quote:

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The FSB announced the detention of an employee(quality control director) of a defense plant in the Moscow region. He is accused of transferring to Ukraine a photograph of fragments of drawings of details of military aviation equipment.

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/13-september-the-fsb-announced-the-detention-of-an-employeequality

Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

The Russians have no good options. The Russian Russians in Crimea are boxed in because the bridge can't handle the traffic. The Donbas Ukrainian Russians are not being allowed to cross the border into Russia because they will be used to fight till the last man. It sucks to be a Russian in Ukraine right now.

On a side note, I have a friend who is about my age from Kharkiv who emigrated to Australia and founded a company. Although he is Ukrainian, when he was growing up in Kharkiv when it was part of the Soviet Union, he was only taught to speak Russian because even then the Soviets were trying to erase the Ukrainian national identity. He speaks Russian but understands Ukrainian.

74OA said:

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fullback44 said:

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If he's saying HIMARS are obsolete you have to wonder what this guy is saying ? Does t seem to intelligent

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The point being made is that the US is achieving a huge strategic win at comparatively small cost.

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True.

However, as the post was made at Republicans not keen on out of control spending, I see both sides of it as someone whole heartedly behind supporting Ukraine.

The numbers listed for aid are just a fraction of what we're spending. As that one guy likes to point out every other day, we have a lot of people, assets, and equipment committed to this around the world. Imagine if this regime had put this to badly needed infrastructure and commerce here instead of trying to kill the energy sector and the economy. That's why most of us just shake our heads at the European energy contracts right now. Petroleum is evil except in emergency to use as leverage. The term lend / lease is a joke today just like it was in WW2 by politicians that just can't tell the truth.

The flip side is what we're doing to Putin is what all the arm chair military historians said should have been done to Hitler to avoid WW2 from breaking out. Stopping and confining his aggression before it's unleashed on all of Europe. While it seems the odds are low for WW3, folks said the same in 1940 as well. And the ultimate price paid in American lives and dollars was exponentially more and priceless once that Genie was out of the bottle. It's not a stretch for Putin and Xi and North Korea to have quickly become this century's Mussolini / Empire of Axis power if Putin had a little success in Eastern Europe. And in theory like WW2, it should provide us economic leverage abroad if successful.

Reality is both sides are probably right to some degree and yet political discord just makes what should be great domestic debate and a reason to think just turn into hate and destruction.

Proc92 said:

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Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

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I really do not believe that Russia is capable of mobilizing its manpower to form an army. They have pissed away vast reserves of weapons, vehicles, fuel, and ordnance. They now have a poor population that has had its national army neutered. In conventional terms, the Russian Army may nd up weaker than the Iranian Army after they are pushed out of Ukraine. All they have left is the threat of nukes.

Ukraine hitting Russian villiages east of Crimea??
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-september-smoke-rising-near-chaltyr-village-of-rostov

Ulysses90 said:

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Proc92 said:

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Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

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I really do not believe that Russia is capable of mobilizing its manpower to form an army. They have pissed away vast reserves of weapons, vehicles, fuel, and ordnance. They now have a poor population that has had its national army neutered. In conventional terms, the Russian Army may nd up weaker than the Iranian Army after they are pushed out of Ukraine. All they have left is the threat of nukes.

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What generals are even left to even lead a huge mobilization?

lb3 said:

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Yah, it's hard to listen to and not put yourself in their position. Sounds like their battle of the bulge with no 101st to save the day and no Patton willing to try and break through. They've thrown them to the wolves.

However, that's a strong woman. I can't imagine what my wife would sound like if I made that call. He's essentially saying what he thinks is goodbye and she won't let him.

Proc92 said:

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Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

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But how would they replace their artillery, rockets, missiles, et al - there's only so much stuff they can buy from North Korea. Though they could field several hundred thousand slightly trained troops, they lost the ability to fight with combined arms. A senseless loss of lives on a scale that would set russia back yet another century.

M142 is new. The rockets used are not. The M142 uses the same rocket pods as the M270, which was developed in the early 80's. At least some of the munitions being used are up for replacement.

There will be a moment of truth within Russia, just like wall coming down, that they will have a go no-go as far as mobilization. Hopefully they make the same realization that they can't go on both economically or militarily even with a national mobilization given their losses from leadership to hardware. Russians are a prideful people but also extremely insecure due to their extensive border and bloody history. The US and Europe are reaping huge rewards through indirect degradation and restructuring of global trade. The longer this goes on, the less Russia is a threat in the near to medium turn 10-30 years (sans an incredibly stupid decision) and allows us to focus on the East (China).

Russians invasion and military collapse has hopefully made the Chinese think twice about the logistics of taking Taiwan. This buys us time in the East so as to redirect our economic dependencies and bolster the defenses. At some point, Russia will be at a point where they can't defend their border, if not already, which will hopefully play into their calculus. One of these talking heads on Russian TV as well as deep within their govt will eventually come to the conclusion that NATO is not fully mobilized, and if it was, they are in big trouble.

On a more curious note, China and Russia play nice in public but have a bloody past. China is heavily dependent on natural resources, and like Japan in WWII is dependent on external raw materials for its economic and military success and may look at a weaker Russia as an opportunity to secure its future. They have made strides with their belt and road program, however the logistics issues with Russia make it clear that from a war time footing, are a strategic weakness.

Proc92 said:

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Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?

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He can't declare war and mobilize without drawing in Europe and Nato at this point. The second he does so Poland and other border countries are threatened. Instead of just supplying weapons and tactics to places he shouldn't be, bombs and missiles start landing on Russian soil and he loses whats left of his military. Then what does China and North Korea do? They can't sit back and do nothing.

My only hope is he's dead from inside the Kremlin before he can give the order.

China probably has some pull in Russia. They don't want a full mobilization because of the dangers for it to go nuclear.

At this point, Russia's best play is to say the "Nazi threat has been neutralized" and still hold on to Crimea. They better hurry if they want to play that card. Putin then retires or succumbs to a mystery illness.