***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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aggiehawg
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In reply to lb3 • 1:19p, 9/13/22
AG
lb3 said:
wiki

Got changed pretty fast, to wit:

Quote:
After the invasion began in February 2022, the Army took part in the Northeastern Ukraine offensive of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the 2nd Guards MRD taking part in the failed Siege of Chernihiv. After 3 weeks of fighting 1st Guards Tank Army had lost 409 men (61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 missing, 96 surrendered) and 308 units of military equipment according to Russian military documents according to Ukraine.

The United Kingdom Ministry of Defence reported on 19 May 2022 that army commander General-Lieutenant Sergey Kisel had been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. On 13 September 2022, UK Defence Intelligence identified 1st Guards Tank Army as the primary force that retreated from Kharkiv Oblast during the Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive, describing the army as "severely degraded" and its ability to counter NATO "severely weakened
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:45p, 9/13/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?

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BQ_90
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:47p, 9/13/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
looks like the eat the pizza before they left
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2wealfth Man
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1:53p, 9/13/22
AG
Army leadership cannot be very happy with Putin at this point. Embarrassment after embarrassment inflicted on them by Ukraine. New NATO member in Finland. Loss of vast amounts of military equipment. Tick tock tick tock….
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Ulysses90
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 1:57p, 9/13/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
M142 is new. The rockets used are not. The M142 uses the same rocket pods as the M270, which was developed in the early 80's. At least some of the munitions being used are up for replacement.
It's actually more the reverse. The rockets being fired today are several Blocks more advanced than those in used in the Gulf War fired from M270s. The M142 began fielding about 15 years ago and it was built right in Grand Prairie at the time (perhaps still is) but the latest generation of rockets has improvements to the warheads, terminal guidance package, and better rocket motors.

The M142 is essentially a truck with a traversing & elevating mechanism and a crane to mount the pods. There is an initiative underway to develop a modular MLRS that could be fitted to the back of any flatbed tactical cargo truck to turn it into a launcher platform. The trick to doing this is to put the fire direction computer on the pod and merely to have the operator station connected to the inside of the cab. The rocket pods will get better and better while the truck beneath it is just a commodity item.
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SouthTex99
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1:57p, 9/13/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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2:03p, 9/13/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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2:10p, 9/13/22
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Quote:
For Russia, the numbers are catastrophic.

From Wednesday to Sunday, Vladimir Putin's military forces saw at least 338 pieces of important military hardware from fighter jets to tanks to trucks destroyed, damaged or captured, according to numbers from the open source intelligence website Oryx, as Ukraine's forces have bolted through Russian-held territory in an offensive that has stunned the Russians in its speed and breadth.

Ukraine's top military commander claimed on Sunday that more than 3,000 square kilometers (1,158 square miles) of territory had been retaken by his country's forces since the beginning of September.

And for more perspective, just "since Wednesday, Ukraine has recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London," the British Defense Ministry said Monday.
Quote:
Ukrainian reports say Putin's troops are fleeing east to the Russian border in whatever transport they can find, even taking cars from the civilian population in the areas they had captured since the start of the war in February.

In their wake they leave hundreds of pieces of the Russian war machine, which since Putin's so-called "special military operation" commenced, has not come close to living up to its pre-war billing as one of the world's great powers.
Quote:
These Russian losses are the accumulation of a multitude of existing problems that are now colliding head-on with a Ukrainian military that has been patient, methodical and infused with billions of dollars of the Western military equipment that Russia cannot match.

And without a drastic, and potentially unconventional intervention from Putin, the Ukrainian victories are likely to accelerate, analysts say.

Many of Russia's problems poor and inflexible leadership, sour troop morale, inadequate logistics and hardware beset by maintenance issues have been evident since the beginning stages of the war more than seven months ago.

The Russian military's hollow core including tanks that were easy prey for Ukrainian ground troops and trucks that didn't have the right tires to traverse Ukraine's landscape was quickly exposed by tactics ill-suited to the blitzkrieg Putin had planned.

Remember that 64-kilometer (40-mile) convoy that stalled on the way to the capital of Kyiv and was shredded by Ukrainian defenders?

As that convoy stalled, reports filtered out that Russian troops had significant morale problems some didn't even know they were in Ukraine, or if they did, why they were there. As the fighting intensified, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian leadership, killing generals and colonels who would have been expected to rally the Russian forces.
Read the rest HERE
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AgLA06
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In reply to SouthTex99 • 2:11p, 9/13/22
AG
SouthTex99 said:
I cannot imagine how Americans would react to having 10,000 American troops surrender as POWs in one battle. Cannot fathom it. Immediate change in leadership starting with POTUS.


Ehhhh....might want to tap the brakes on that one. Our military is the best in the world, but we've had some embarrassing moments of our own the last 100 years. Every country does. Most turn it into stories of heroes instead of failure.

Kasserine Pass
Task Force Smith
Desert One (Iran Hostage Situation)
Chosin Resevoir
Tet Offensive


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2wealfth Man
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:12p, 9/13/22
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aggiehawg said:
Melitopol puts the Ukes in the rear of the Russians in Kherson, no?
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aggiehawg
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2:15p, 9/13/22
AG
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aezmvp
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:27p, 9/13/22
AgLA06 said:
I feel like this was meant for Frisco. I pretty much said the same thing as you, just much less words.
My baaaaaaaaad.
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aezmvp
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 2:33p, 9/13/22
2wealfth Man said:
aggiehawg said:
Melitopol puts the Ukes in the rear of the Russians in Kherson, no?
Yes it would but it's still a fair distance. The idea is to cut to the coast and force resupply of Crimea by sea and a long bridge you could cut off with rockets. That would be difficult as I'm unsure how much sea lift capacity both civilian and military Russia could use to do so. It might seriously strain both fleet assets and ports that could potentially be targeted after further gains. That's where I'd want to put an offensive, ideally.
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fasthorse05
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In reply to Ulysses90 • 2:35p, 9/13/22
Ulysses90 said:
Proc92 said:
Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?
I really do not believe that Russia is capable of mobilizing its manpower to form an army. They have pissed away vast reserves of weapons, vehicles, fuel, and ordnance. They now have a poor population that has had its national army neutered. In conventional terms, the Russian Army may nd up weaker than the Iranian Army after they are pushed out of Ukraine. All they have left is the threat of nukes.
Do you think the Russian citizens are also indifferent to the government?

While I expected the Russian troops to eventually begin to question why the hell they're in Ukraine, I also think it's possible, maybe likely, that the Russian population accepted the oligarchy long ago, and may refuse to not only support any government mobilization, but be hostile to those actions.

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FriscoKid
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2:45p, 9/13/22
AG
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FriscoKid
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2:52p, 9/13/22
AG


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Waffledynamics
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2:55p, 9/13/22
AG
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PA24
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2:58p, 9/13/22
AG
Pics of 10,000 Russia POWs
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74OA
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3:04p, 9/13/22
AG
Click to enlarge.

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2wealfth Man
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In reply to FriscoKid • 3:12p, 9/13/22
AG
FriscoKid said:
Kiselyovka is about 19km from the Kherson airport. Could the pincers be closing on Kherson?
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Ulysses90
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In reply to fasthorse05 • 3:13p, 9/13/22
AG
fasthorse05 said:
Ulysses90 said:
Proc92 said:
Would a 4-6 month full mobilization allow Ukraine to significantly build up stronger defenses to prevent a full scale invasion? Are there enough weapons coming or new systems that could counter a more full scale invasion following a robust mobilization by russsia?
I really do not believe that Russia is capable of mobilizing its manpower to form an army. They have pissed away vast reserves of weapons, vehicles, fuel, and ordnance. They now have a poor population that has had its national army neutered. In conventional terms, the Russian Army may nd up weaker than the Iranian Army after they are pushed out of Ukraine. All they have left is the threat of nukes.
Do you think the Russian citizens are also indifferent to the government?

While I expected the Russian troops to eventually begin to question why the hell they're in Ukraine, I also think it's possible, maybe likely, that the Russian population accepted the oligarchy long ago, and may refuse to not only support any government mobilization, but be hostile to those actions.


I believe that there is something that has been passed down in the DNA of Russians that inures them to really ****ty leaders and living under the threat of brutality. I was struck by an article I read back in March that pointed out that Russian suffered over 1,000,000 KIA in WW I before the Bolsheviks could enough of a platform to recruit and army of their own.

The Moscow-St Petersburg upper class Russians may be very worried and angry but I believe that they are fearful because of how many untouchable oligarchs and Generals Putin has killed. My sense (which is purely as an amateur spectator) is that they are just going to wait for someone else to rid them of the tyrant until they are the ones starving and freezing.
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AGS-R-TUFF
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3:23p, 9/13/22
AG
'Special Operation" has turned into "Special GTFO Operation"

Slava Ukraini!
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74OA
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3:24p, 9/13/22
AG
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fullback44
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3:28p, 9/13/22
AG
If Ukraine wanted to take this one step farther and speed things up.. they would send a bunch a f supply trucks loaded with vodka to the Russians .. instead of the Russians running off they would find them passed out in all the houses they occupied.. give them each a couple bottles of vodka and a white surrender flag
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USAFAg
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In reply to SouthTex99 • 3:34p, 9/13/22
AG
SouthTex99 said:
I cannot imagine how Americans would react to having 10,000 American troops surrender as POWs in one battle. Cannot fathom it. Immediate change in leadership starting with POTUS.
Um...@ 10-12,000 US soldiers surrendered on Bataan in 1942...and about another 9,000 at Corregidor. Seems that kind of made us even more angry.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
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JFABNRGR
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3:35p, 9/13/22
AG
This is supposedly red on red. I have viewed it several times and certainly there is chaos on that battlefield and this is what can happen when fleeing the front. Very interested to have this geolocated.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdeb9x/orcs_opening_fire_on_their_own/
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:36p, 9/13/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Ukrainian reports say Putin's troops are fleeing east to the Russian border in whatever transport they can find, even taking cars from the civilian population in the areas they had captured since the start of the war in February.

In their wake they leave hundreds of pieces of the Russian war machine, which since Putin's so-called "special military operation" commenced, has not come close to living up to its pre-war billing as one of the world's great powers.
So basically, Russia is the Aggie football of global superpowers....
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 3:39p, 9/13/22
AG
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?
AH may have answered my question below. More likely they figured it's better to steal cars and haul ass than be ID'ed in a war vehicle and get smoked out. They've either seen, heard, or been next to some of these drone or artillery hits and want to avoid big green things until they can get back to the motherland.

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Bryan98
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 3:43p, 9/13/22
AG
BlackGoldAg2011 said:
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
Ukrainian reports say Putin's troops are fleeing east to the Russian border in whatever transport they can find, even taking cars from the civilian population in the areas they had captured since the start of the war in February.

In their wake they leave hundreds of pieces of the Russian war machine, which since Putin's so-called "special military operation" commenced, has not come close to living up to its pre-war billing as one of the world's great powers.
So basically, Russia is the Aggie football of global superpowers....


Hey man, this thread has been my happy place lately. Don't do this to me.
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fullback44
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 3:50p, 9/13/22
AG
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?
AH may have answered my question below. More likely they figured it's better to steal cars and haul ass than be ID'ed in a war vehicle and get smoked out. They've either seen, heard, or been next to some of these drone or artillery hits and want to avoid big green things until they can get back to the motherland.


This makes sense … Ukrainians won't shoot at the cars fleeing because they are basically surrendering pretty much, in return the Uks get all their tanks and other military equipment …. From what I've been reading a lot of the Rusky's want to surrender but they Russian command is sending in their own squads to try and hunt them down to keep it from happening
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to fullback44 • 3:54p, 9/13/22
AG
fullback44 said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?
AH may have answered my question below. More likely they figured it's better to steal cars and haul ass than be ID'ed in a war vehicle and get smoked out. They've either seen, heard, or been next to some of these drone or artillery hits and want to avoid big green things until they can get back to the motherland.


This makes sense … Ukrainians won't shoot at the cars fleeing because they are basically surrendering pretty much, in return the Uks get all their tanks and other military equipment …. From what I've been reading a lot of the Rusky's want to surrender but they Russian command is sending in their own squads to try and hunt them down to keep it from happening
I wonder if this is why they are closing the Kertch bridge with the exception of 2 hrs and looking for military age males in the other flyer published.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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SouthTex99
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In reply to USAFAg • 4:12p, 9/13/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 4:24p, 9/13/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
fullback44 said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?
AH may have answered my question below. More likely they figured it's better to steal cars and haul ass than be ID'ed in a war vehicle and get smoked out. They've either seen, heard, or been next to some of these drone or artillery hits and want to avoid big green things until they can get back to the motherland.


This makes sense … Ukrainians won't shoot at the cars fleeing because they are basically surrendering pretty much, in return the Uks get all their tanks and other military equipment …. From what I've been reading a lot of the Rusky's want to surrender but they Russian command is sending in their own squads to try and hunt them down to keep it from happening
I wonder if this is why they are closing the Kertch bridge with the exception of 2 hrs and looking for military age males in the other flyer published.
That would make sense. Looking for deserters posing as civilians? Short time frame of two hours to attempt to identify them. To me those two stories, restrictions in use of the Kerch bridge for civilians and reports of Russian soldiers fleeing and stealing civilian cars corroborate each other.
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fasthorse05
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 4:26p, 9/13/22
Gold, that made my day.

I've already shared that with a couple of old roommates.

"In the midst of my thoughts to commit Hari Kari after Saturday, humor brought me through to today"!

That was good!
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to fullback44 • 4:34p, 9/13/22
AG
fullback44 said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aggiehawg said:
That is just freaking insane. Had to be out of petrol and no re-supply?
AH may have answered my question below. More likely they figured it's better to steal cars and haul ass than be ID'ed in a war vehicle and get smoked out. They've either seen, heard, or been next to some of these drone or artillery hits and want to avoid big green things until they can get back to the motherland.


This makes sense … Ukrainians won't shoot at the cars fleeing because they are basically surrendering pretty much, in return the Uks get all their tanks and other military equipment …. From what I've been reading a lot of the Rusky's want to surrender but they Russian command is sending in their own squads to try and hunt them down to keep it from happening


If this is true, then what will the rear guard / kadryovites / border guards do with deserters trying to flee to Crimea and beyond? If true, how are they getting through in stolen cars? Cash to the guards?
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