Much of the TB2 is composed with commercial parts which makes them cheaper to build. I believe the more savvy militaries took notice of this drone after the TB2s destroyed 100 Russian tanks in Syria. Both the US and Russia are endeavoring to develop ways to directly protect tanks but the approaches are significantly different.lb3 said:
I would love to take a team of half a dozen top grad students and build a drone with a downward facing short barreled AR with a 100 round drum magazine.
It would be nice to be able to hit targets at range, but the math and sensor suite needed to calculate bullet trajectories is significantly simplified when firing vertically.
Add a little AI target detection and some geofencing, then swarm a dozen of them across a battlefield. If not for supply chain unreliability right now, this likely isn't the much more than a 6-8 week project with a high caliber team of engineers and software guys.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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47868 Replies |
Last: 16 hrs ago by 74OA
docb said:
I've read about possibly training Ukrainian pilots on Western/NATO fighter jets but obviously that will take a while. I wonder why we would not train them on some of our attack helicopters and get some in their hands. Seems they would be extremely beneficial for any counteroffensive strikes as their helicopters seem dated to me?
I suspect if Russia annexes the Donbas, the counter move is upping the hardware, training, and software in this war. F-16s would be a piece of the response.
Following up on the posts supra regarding the Ukranian Kherson offensive (and for those that just read and do not click on the links):
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/27/world/russia-war-ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/27/world/russia-war-ukraine
Quote:
. . .
Explosions lit up the sky over the southern city of Kherson overnight, and as dawn broke on Wednesday it was clear that Ukrainian long-range missiles had once again found their target: a bridge that is critical in the Russian effort to resupply the forces charged with holding the port city.
At the same time, dozens of Russian missiles struck targets across the southern regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv, hitting port and transport infrastructure, two leisure centers, houses, a parking lot and two restaurants, according to Ukraine's southern military command.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said its forces struck Ukrainian military strongholds, killing scores of soldiers, and other key Ukrainian infrastructure. The claims could not be verified. But it was clear that both armies were trying to limit their opponents' logistical operations.
Ukrainian forces are under pressure to demonstrate to their Western allies that they cannot only mount a muscular defense but are capable of reclaiming lost land. And Kherson has emerged as a key battlefront as Ukrainian forces set the stage for a broad offensive to retake the region's capital city.
The Ukrainian ministry of defense said its strikes on routes in and out of Kherson had created "an impossible dilemma" for the Russian forces: "Retreat or be annihilated."
Moscow continues to move troops and military equipment in the direction of Kherson to reinforce its defensive positions, according to the Ukrainian military high command.
Ukraine targeted the Antonivsky bridge, which spans the Dnipro River, following up on two strikes last week in which its forces hit the bridge using a HIMARS truck-mounted, multiple-rocket launcher newly supplied by the United States. The overnight strike, reported by a spokeswoman for Ukraine's southern military command, Natalia Humeniuk, punctured the road surface, according to a video released by the Ukrainian government, which said the span had been closed to traffic.
The bridge has been the main transit route for Russian supplies coming in from Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, to Kherson, the first major city that Moscow seized after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia launched his invasion five months ago. The targeting of the bridge is part of a broader effort to isolate Russian forces based west of the Dnipro river, which runs the length of Ukraine and divides the eastern and western halves of the nation.
Since long-range Western weapons systems started arriving en masse, Ukraine has pounded Russian ammunition depots and command and control center behind the front lines.
On Wednesday, the southern command said it took back two villages in the north of the Kherson region, Andriivka and Lozove, creeping closer to the city of Kherson.
Ms. Humeniuk said that retaking the villages put more key Russian positions within range of Ukrainian artillery.
. . .
An adviser to Ukraine's administration in Kherson, Serhiy Khlan, said that Russian forces are building a pontoon crossing over the Inhulets River in Darivka, northeast of the city of Kherson, to facilitate the transport of heavy equipment given damage to the main bridge.
. . .
Pontoon bridge... Yeah. You guys do that....
They can't even get their tanks correctly loaded onto trailers but they will easily travers a narrow pontoon bridge?ABATTBQ11 said:
Pontoon bridge... Yeah. You guys do that....
Today, the Russian air defense in the occupied #Kherson province shot down their own attack helicopter Ka-52 Alligator (cost $15 million) after it mistakenly attacked the Russian positions. Source: The South Command of UAF. Photo is illustrative. pic.twitter.com/OKjTOam54a
— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) July 27, 2022
Friendly fire on friendly fire.FriscoKid said:Today, the Russian air defense in the occupied #Kherson province shot down their own attack helicopter Ka-52 Alligator (cost $15 million) after it mistakenly attacked the Russian positions. Source: The South Command of UAF. Photo is illustrative. pic.twitter.com/OKjTOam54a
— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) July 27, 2022
It's the most lethal they've been lately.
So for security reasons I’ve kept this silent but screw it. I’m back overseas. Made it to Poland yesterday and will be back in Ukraine shortly. Thanks for all the support. It’s been quite a journey with a long way to go
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) July 27, 2022
I will say with candor I am not following all the battles of the war. I like the the big picture and major trends. I will attempt to use logic instead of empirical data to derive a conclusion. I get the perception from current articles the Russians are at an impasse of sorts. This is certainly not good news for the invaders. What has transpired in the war shows the Russians are incapable of executing plans that entail long maneuvers and significantly stretching the lines of communication. A great example is the failed plan to seize Kyiv.
The invaders initial scope entailed quick and broad maneuvers to defeat Ukraine. That went horribly wrong because of a pathetic logistical plan which relegated many of the units to wither on the vine and to be destroyed by Ukrainian forces. I have read the centralizing of decision making has hampered the Russian forces. This makes the units less agile and can lead to poor decision making if the commander does not see the battlefield. Practically all the great commanders in history led from the front. Think Patton, Hannibal, Alexander the Great, and Washington.
The Ukrainians used precision weapons beautifully. For example the Javelin with a 4 km range were efficient tank killers. Russian tankers could not see small Javelin teams from that distance. I am not an expert on Russian tanks, so I will take a stab at it. Maybe they can see troop targets 1 km away with thermal sites. The major trend is the Ukrainians precision weapons vs Russian imprecision weapons. Without precision weapons it requires a lot of munitions to return fire which is inefficient, contributes to attrition, and will lower efficacy.
I understand reasons why the Russians are horrible at tactics. A 21 year old tank commander has neither the training nor experience to be effective. As a former tank officer I will unequivocally state attacking in a column formation is beyond stupid. Defenders can mass fires on the column and the tanks field of fire is greatly reduced. My tank commanders were E-6s with a good ten years of experience. They were aggressive because they knew the tactics like the back of their hands.
These are the Russian lessons learned which leads to what is transpiring now as they mass in the Donbas region which is a valuable industrial region:
- The scope of the war had to be reduced.
- Command and control is easier by massing.
- Imprecise weapons are more effective in the close fight.
- Tactics is less complex by massing.
Having said this and reading many articles, it appears the Russians in general are a stick in the mud. This is a terrible omen if it is true because the close fight by massing is the invaders strength. I don't know why they are having a difficulty turning their wheels. Could it be?
- Low morale?
- Poor logistics?
- Poor tactics and battle command?
- Attrition of munitions, weapons platforms, and soldiers?
I would love to know the answer in order to predict future operations. Are there fundamental flaws Ukraine can take advantage of to start large flanking maneuvers? Are the flaws so great that the Russian forces who are massed can be destroyed like a tethered goat? I don't know, but I hope so.
This is my 2 cents.
The invaders initial scope entailed quick and broad maneuvers to defeat Ukraine. That went horribly wrong because of a pathetic logistical plan which relegated many of the units to wither on the vine and to be destroyed by Ukrainian forces. I have read the centralizing of decision making has hampered the Russian forces. This makes the units less agile and can lead to poor decision making if the commander does not see the battlefield. Practically all the great commanders in history led from the front. Think Patton, Hannibal, Alexander the Great, and Washington.
The Ukrainians used precision weapons beautifully. For example the Javelin with a 4 km range were efficient tank killers. Russian tankers could not see small Javelin teams from that distance. I am not an expert on Russian tanks, so I will take a stab at it. Maybe they can see troop targets 1 km away with thermal sites. The major trend is the Ukrainians precision weapons vs Russian imprecision weapons. Without precision weapons it requires a lot of munitions to return fire which is inefficient, contributes to attrition, and will lower efficacy.
I understand reasons why the Russians are horrible at tactics. A 21 year old tank commander has neither the training nor experience to be effective. As a former tank officer I will unequivocally state attacking in a column formation is beyond stupid. Defenders can mass fires on the column and the tanks field of fire is greatly reduced. My tank commanders were E-6s with a good ten years of experience. They were aggressive because they knew the tactics like the back of their hands.
These are the Russian lessons learned which leads to what is transpiring now as they mass in the Donbas region which is a valuable industrial region:
- The scope of the war had to be reduced.
- Command and control is easier by massing.
- Imprecise weapons are more effective in the close fight.
- Tactics is less complex by massing.
Having said this and reading many articles, it appears the Russians in general are a stick in the mud. This is a terrible omen if it is true because the close fight by massing is the invaders strength. I don't know why they are having a difficulty turning their wheels. Could it be?
- Low morale?
- Poor logistics?
- Poor tactics and battle command?
- Attrition of munitions, weapons platforms, and soldiers?
I would love to know the answer in order to predict future operations. Are there fundamental flaws Ukraine can take advantage of to start large flanking maneuvers? Are the flaws so great that the Russian forces who are massed can be destroyed like a tethered goat? I don't know, but I hope so.
This is my 2 cents.
Maybe other helicopter types would be more beneficial to allow for rapid transport of troops/supplies where urgentl needed or for evacuation purposes?
Interesting. We know the Ukrainians were trying to convince Russian pilots to defect. What are the chances this was a defection and attack by a disgruntled orc pilot instead of actual accidental friendly fire?FriscoKid said:Today, the Russian air defense in the occupied #Kherson province shot down their own attack helicopter Ka-52 Alligator (cost $15 million) after it mistakenly attacked the Russian positions. Source: The South Command of UAF. Photo is illustrative. pic.twitter.com/OKjTOam54a
— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) July 27, 2022
Pilot isn't going to shoot his own guys on the ground and risk getting his payday shot from underneath him. He's just going to high tail it to the nearest Ukrainian airfield and get paid.
I'm not a military guy but those are the questions that will likely determine the fate of Russia for the next 60 years.Red1 said:
Are there fundamental flaws Ukraine can take advantage of to start large flanking maneuvers? Are the flaws so great that the Russian forces who are massed can be destroyed like a tethered goat? I don't know, but I hope so.
So far I have seen no evidence that Ukraine can maneuver large formations to flank the Russians. Taking ground requires infantry (hopefully backed by armor an close air support) closing on enemy lines. But Russian artillery, while not very precise or even timely, is overwhelming in volume.
Ukraine doesn't have enough smart weapons to take out all the artillery so they have to play the long game of continually degrading supplies and command structures from a distance while waiting for Russia to collapse.
I think this war ends in a rout of one side or another. Either the EU gives up on Ukraine and they run out of ammo or fuel, or they suffer a leadership collapse post Zelenskiy.
Or the Russians get stuck in a quagmire of ammo, food, and maintenance supply issues driving morale to the point that their army basically dissolves at first contact with the Ukrainians.
When in doubt always assume the most likely / KISS assumption.txags92 said:Interesting. We know the Ukrainians were trying to convince Russian pilots to defect. What are the chances this was a defection and attack by a disgruntled orc pilot instead of actual accidental friendly fire?FriscoKid said:Today, the Russian air defense in the occupied #Kherson province shot down their own attack helicopter Ka-52 Alligator (cost $15 million) after it mistakenly attacked the Russian positions. Source: The South Command of UAF. Photo is illustrative. pic.twitter.com/OKjTOam54a
— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) July 27, 2022
In this case that would be incompetence based on lots of recent evidence.
I can't imagine if this happened in the US military. This isn't just friendly fire in a fast moving, coalition offensive. They hit their own troops, who in turn shot them down.
No idea. Don't have the knowledge or experience to answer that.docb said:
Maybe other helicopter types would be more beneficial to allow for rapid transport of troops/supplies where urgentl needed or for evacuation purposes?
My personal take is a helo is just about the last place I'd like to be in that warzone. I'd love to see current pilot life expectancy compared to our Vietnam statistics for slick pilots.
Today's SITREP.
That bridge is kaput. Large parts of the top and bottom sectional area for both box girders are gone. Many tension cables are severed. Maybe okay for light auto traffic, iffy for unloaded trucks, and dangerous for heavy equip. Not easily repaired either.74OA said:
More on the bridge strike,
On reddit structural engineer who does bridges gave his analysis. His conclusion was unless they can use the bridge columns to add a new span above the existing (temp or permanent), he wouldn't drive on it.
It might be possible to lay a mobile assault bridge or a section of a ribbon bridge over each damaged span if those military bridges are long enough to sit on each span's supporting piers.benchmark said:That bridge is kaput. Large parts of the top and bottom sectional area for both box girders are gone. Many tension cables are severed. Maybe okay for light auto traffic, iffy for unloaded trucks, and dangerous for heavy equip. Not easily repaired either.74OA said:
More on the bridge strike,
For Example
Germany approves sale of 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns to Ukraine
Quote:
BERLIN, July 27 (Reuters) - Germany has approved the sale of 100 tank howitzers worth 1.7 billion euros to Ukraine, magazine Der Spiegel reported, citing a spokesperson for manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
KMW has already started manufacturing the howitzers, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 model, the full run of which which will take several years to complete, Spiegel said. It added that it was not yet clear when the first of the howitzers could be delivered.
Ukraine has pleaded for the West to send more and better artillery as the country runs out of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era arsenal, which is dwarfed by Russia's.
In the way of heavy equipment, Germany has now provided SPHs, MLRS and Gepards and also backfilled several eastern European militaries with armor so they could send their ex-Soviet tanks and AFVs to Ukraine.benchmark said:
Germany approves sale of 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns to UkraineQuote:
BERLIN, July 27 (Reuters) - Germany has approved the sale of 100 tank howitzers worth 1.7 billion euros to Ukraine, magazine Der Spiegel reported, citing a spokesperson for manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
KMW has already started manufacturing the howitzers, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 model, the full run of which which will take several years to complete, Spiegel said. It added that it was not yet clear when the first of the howitzers could be delivered.
Ukraine has pleaded for the West to send more and better artillery as the country runs out of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era arsenal, which is dwarfed by Russia's.
Those are very longs spans - maybe 150 ft. Very unlikely there's a mobile bridge built for that. Maybe roll one heavy vehicle at a time over the damaged span with the driver wearing a parachute.74OA said:
As the hits are concentrated in one span it might be possible to emplace a mobile bridge over the damage if it was long enough to base itself on the span's two piers.
I read a translation of the German article that broke the story. I'm not sure if it was a bad translation, but it read like Germany was buying the howitzers for itself and Ukraine would probably benefit in a trickle down way in the end. How was not known.benchmark said:
Germany approves sale of 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns to UkraineQuote:
BERLIN, July 27 (Reuters) - Germany has approved the sale of 100 tank howitzers worth 1.7 billion euros to Ukraine, magazine Der Spiegel reported, citing a spokesperson for manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
KMW has already started manufacturing the howitzers, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 model, the full run of which which will take several years to complete, Spiegel said. It added that it was not yet clear when the first of the howitzers could be delivered.
Ukraine has pleaded for the West to send more and better artillery as the country runs out of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era arsenal, which is dwarfed by Russia's.
The problem is they have promised lots of each, but only actually delivered a handful of each so far.74OA said:In the way of heavy equipment, Germany has now provided SPHs, MLRS and Gepards and also backfilled several eastern European militaries with armor so they could send their ex-Soviet tanks and AFVs to Ukraine.benchmark said:
Germany approves sale of 100 PzH 2000 self-propelled guns to UkraineQuote:
BERLIN, July 27 (Reuters) - Germany has approved the sale of 100 tank howitzers worth 1.7 billion euros to Ukraine, magazine Der Spiegel reported, citing a spokesperson for manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
KMW has already started manufacturing the howitzers, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 model, the full run of which which will take several years to complete, Spiegel said. It added that it was not yet clear when the first of the howitzers could be delivered.
Ukraine has pleaded for the West to send more and better artillery as the country runs out of ammunition for its existing Soviet-era arsenal, which is dwarfed by Russia's.
Yeah, that's too long.benchmark said:Those are very longs spans - maybe 150 ft. Very unlikely there's a mobile bridge built for that. Maybe roll one heavy vehicle at a time over the damaged span with the driver wearing a parachute.74OA said:
As the hits are concentrated in one span it might be possible to emplace a mobile bridge over the damage if it was long enough to base itself on the span's two piers.
That's what she said.
NAVTEX issued by Ukrainian authorities for grain transport pic.twitter.com/bZJQ8KjRJb
— Yörük Işık (@YorukIsik) July 27, 2022
More on HIMARS.
This. Ukraine has a 3 month window - then rations. GMLRS has an expiration date.74OA said:
More on HIMARS.
Quote:
"As long as you only have 12 or 20 HIMARS systems, the [munitions] burn rate is not going to be a near-term problem," retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, who worked at the Office of Management and Budget on Pentagon procurement programs and is now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic & International Studies, told The War Zone. "When you start getting more than that, and you start looking out three months, four months, I think at the end of four months, you may just run out."
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-july-video-of-ukrainian-operation-at-ingulets-river-nearQuote:
Video of Ukrainian operation at Ingulets river near Andriivka village
✊ Відео переходу ЗСУ через річку Інгулець в районі с. Андріївка, Херсонська область.
— ҐРУНТ (@grntmedia) July 27, 2022
Військові говорять, що ініціатива зараз на нашому боці, звільнення окупованих територій продовжується. pic.twitter.com/O87GgWxEzp
The video doesn't have a lot of action. It's basically just them running. Still, maybe keen eyes might see something I wouldn't think of.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-july-russian-forces-have-set-up-a-ferry-next-to-the-destroyedQuote:
Russian forces have set up a ferry next to the destroyed E97 bridge in Kherson
That's the Antonivsky bridge, I believe.
benchmark said:This. Ukraine has a 3 month window - then rations. GMLRS has an expiration date.74OA said:
More on HIMARS.Quote:
"As long as you only have 12 or 20 HIMARS systems, the [munitions] burn rate is not going to be a near-term problem," retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, who worked at the Office of Management and Budget on Pentagon procurement programs and is now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic & International Studies, told The War Zone. "When you start getting more than that, and you start looking out three months, four months, I think at the end of four months, you may just run out."
I would like to think they've already planned around this and ramped up production months ago.
Waffledynamics said:https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-july-russian-forces-have-set-up-a-ferry-next-to-the-destroyedQuote:
Russian forces have set up a ferry next to the destroyed E97 bridge in Kherson
That's the Antonivsky bridge, I believe.
That should give the drone operators something to do.
Seven and three are ten, not only now, but forever. There has never been a time when seven and three were not ten, nor will there ever be a time when they are not ten. Therefore, I have said that the truth of number is incorruptible and common to all who think. — St. Augustine
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