If our goal is a protracted near stalemate to bleed Russia, slow-rolling makes a cold kind of sense.

EastSideAg2002 said:

---

Waffledynamics said:

---

Quote:

---

Jake Sullivan with some news: Says US has intelligence that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with UAVs to use in Ukraine and is preparing to train the Russians how to use them

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-july-jake-sullivan-with-some-news-says-us-has-intelligence

---

Maybe that will tilt the Israelis to be less friendly to russia.

---

Over 200,000 Israelis live in Russia, they will stay out of the fight. Plus the adage of the enemy of my enemy is my friend is not something Israel believes in. Unless you are going after Israel they stay out of it

Russia at some point will realize they have overextended and can't keep building up effective and modern forces at the rate that Ukraine can with western help and that, combined with some effective counterattacks might lead to a better negotiated resolution to the war. The ongoing economic pressures will eventually take effect regarding access to modern technological products.

Israel just announced they're sending more defensive equipment to Ukraine (helmets, vests, mine protection equipment, etc.) but staying with their policy to not provide offensive weaponry.

Zobel said:

---

If our goal is a protracted near stalemate to bleed Russia, slow-rolling makes a cold kind of sense.

---

Aye. That is the unspoken part said out loud. Didn't want to derail this conversation but I think most of us here are at least cognizant of the possibility of a "planned delay" in our rollout for less than stellar reasons, i.e. purposely drawing this out.

Either way, I am glad they have access to some HIMARS and getting some damn good use out of it. Our ROI on something like the HIMARS is insanely high compared to our usual spreadsheets.

Anything else exciting and new in the pipeline for them coming up? I know complete aerial fighters are still a no go for now but have been wondering if we will see the full operational platform drones being made available if this just keeps going and going. Such as the MQ-9 Predator and variants.

Thanks for your help!

UPDATE

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

NATO countries? Still very doubtful unless they are directly attacked first. And that's the danger with Belarus getting more involved than they already are. Errant shots, etc. Borders are bunched together.

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

I don't think NATO gets involved directly. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Poland positioning troops along the border with Belarus to help keep some of their troops in place.

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

that would begin to lead to WWIII

we don't want Poland or any other NATO nation to get involved, even against Belarus

you would be looking at recreating July 1914 all over again (with us taking over the role of Imperial Germany)

lb3 said:

---

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

I don't think NATO gets involved directly. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Poland positioning troops along the border with Belarus to help keep some of their troops in place.

---

This would be a solid strategic move. Putting pressure on Belarus' western flank is basically the same chess move Russia is trying to pull on the Ukes northern border. Gives them a lot more to think about and likely does cause them to reposition troops.

aggiehawg said:

---

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

NATO countries? Still very doubtful unless they are directly attacked first. And that's the danger with Belarus getting more involved than they already are. Errant shots, etc. Borders are bunched together.

---

If Belarus were to go south from Brest to try to ebb the flow of Western equipment into UKR, things could get dicey if they arent careful.

Also, think it would cause major issues as others have mentioned if anyone were to attack Belarus as it seems as Putin consider Belarus de facto russian under the novo-russiya principle.

EastSideAg2002 said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

NATO countries? Still very doubtful unless they are directly attacked first. And that's the danger with Belarus getting more involved than they already are. Errant shots, etc. Borders are bunched together.

---

If Belarus were to go south from Brest to try to ebb the flow of Western equipment into UKR, things could get dicey if they arent careful.

Also, think it would cause major issues as others have mentioned if anyone were to attack Belarus as it seems as Putin consider Belarus de facto russian under the novo-russiya principle.

---

Agree. And one thing we have seen is the Russians aren't that savvy. Can't expect troops from Belarus to be any better.

JFABNRGR said:

---

AGS-R-TUFF said:

---

lb3 said:

---

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

I don't think NATO gets involved directly. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Poland positioning troops along the border with Belarus to help keep some of their troops in place.

---

This would be a solid strategic move. Putting pressure on Belarus' western flank is basically the same chess move Russia is trying to pull on the Ukes northern border. Gives them a lot more to think about and likely does cause them to reposition troops.

---

A far more solid move would be to have Poland Brigade(s) move in and create a blocking position on Ukrainian northern border to defend against a Belarus invasion and call it a peace keeping mission....they could even paint their helmets blue in a symbolic gesture of love.

---

We don't want NATO troops within Ukraine.

Every month that goes by and the war rages on, Europe is in a much worsening position. The closer it is to winter, the worse off they will be. The longer it rages and as their industries shut down, the worse it is going to be.

They don't have the luxury to wait. The US doesn't have the ability to backfill all of their energy needs.

Dollar and Euro hit parity today. That's not because the dollar is doing so much better, but the EU is showing signs of crumbling.

Speaking of "clever" - this time FSB - here is an interesting read about Russian scheming regarding Belarus. Bottomline is Russia will goad Belarus to invade so they can take outright control of Belarus.

https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/07/kremlin-plan-to-annihilate-belarusian.html

My translation of the July 7th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin.

Subject: Kremlin plan to annihilate Belarusian army in Ukraine and seize #Belarus itself as a result, turn #Lukashenko into hostage-puppet.

An endless column of the Russian army is moving through Melitopol to Kherson. The situation in Melitopol is heating up every day. Explosions are heard in the city and automatic bursts. Invaders have become noticeably more active and are moving equipment towards Kherson

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) July 12, 2022

lb3 said:

---

JFABNRGR said:

---

AGS-R-TUFF said:

---

lb3 said:

---

AgCMT said:

---

Thanks for the updates everyone...I had a question for the many on here with much more knowledge about the situation than I, which isn't difficult. Could we expect allies to join the fray if Bellarus jumps in? Perhaps Poland?

Thanks for the work you guys put in on this thread. It's my daily news outlet.

---

I don't think NATO gets involved directly. But it wouldn't surprise me to see Poland positioning troops along the border with Belarus to help keep some of their troops in place.

---

This would be a solid strategic move. Putting pressure on Belarus' western flank is basically the same chess move Russia is trying to pull on the Ukes northern border. Gives them a lot more to think about and likely does cause them to reposition troops.

---

A far more solid move would be to have Poland Brigade(s) move in and create a blocking position on Ukrainian northern border to defend against a Belarus invasion and call it a peace keeping mission....they could even paint their helmets blue in a symbolic gesture of love.

---

We don't want NATO troops within Ukraine.

---

They already are, but if you don't want NATO really involved than you should prefer that Belarus or russia attacks Poland in Ukraine versus Belarus or russia attacking Poland in Poland! That would induce article 5 and not likely my way.

sclaff said:

---

Speaking of "clever" - this time FSB - here is an interesting read about Russian scheming regarding Belarus. Bottomline is Russia will goad Belarus to invade so they can take outright control of Belarus.

https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/07/kremlin-plan-to-annihilate-belarusian.html

My translation of the July 7th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin.

Subject: Kremlin plan to annihilate Belarusian army in Ukraine and seize #Belarus itself as a result, turn #Lukashenko into hostage-puppet.

---

Cleverness of the Christians In Action or really the fsb?

sclaff said:

---

Speaking of "clever" - this time FSB - here is an interesting read about Russian scheming regarding Belarus. Bottomline is Russia will goad Belarus to invade so they can take outright control of Belarus.

https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/07/kremlin-plan-to-annihilate-belarusian.html

My translation of the July 7th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin.

Subject: Kremlin plan to annihilate Belarusian army in Ukraine and seize #Belarus itself as a result, turn #Lukashenko into hostage-puppet.

---

I thought he already was puppet?

And so much for the "buffer zone" Putin said he required between Russia and NATO countries.

They're seeing ghosts everywhere they look:

Dimitriyev: "A rocket fired from HIMARS which landed in Kherson the day before yesterday, flew into the barracks from above, broke through several floors and exploded inside. Presumably, it went to the target along a complex trajectory and evaded air defence". pic.twitter.com/wxgh9AzRrQ

— Dmitri 🇺🇦 (@mdmitri91) July 12, 2022

aggiehawg said:

---

sclaff said:

---

Speaking of "clever" - this time FSB - here is an interesting read about Russian scheming regarding Belarus. Bottomline is Russia will goad Belarus to invade so they can take outright control of Belarus.

https://www.igorsushko.com/2022/07/kremlin-plan-to-annihilate-belarusian.html

My translation of the July 7th #FSBletters from the #WindofChange inside the FSB to Vladimir Osechkin.

Subject: Kremlin plan to annihilate Belarusian army in Ukraine and seize #Belarus itself as a result, turn #Lukashenko into hostage-puppet.

---

I thought he already was puppet?

And so much for the "buffer zone" Putin said he required between Russia and NATO countries.

---

To beat the heck of a symbiosis analogy...the distinction, in my mind, is that Lukashenko has largely been a willing "puppet" over the years. There's been a mutualism between him and Russian leaders. Maybe not for the Belarussian people, but for Lukashenko and his values, yes.

This war in Ukraine was something of a shift towards commensalism--its not clear what Lukashenko is possibly gaining from this, but I'm not sure he feels at this point*** like he's much harmed by allowing Russia to benefit from use of Belarussian territory.

This talk about Russia bending Belarus into joining the war would be a shift into parasitism.

***I'm not sure how long Belarus can withstand the sanctions regime, not my expertise, but I don't think Lukashenko is seeing signs yet that his grip on power is seriously threatened as of yet

Quote:

---

Explosion and further detonations reported in Luhansk

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-explosion-and-further-detonations-reported-in-luhansk

Пишут
Луганск
Взрывы в стороне Юбилейного... происходит детонаци pic.twitter.com/BxCxrvUgDi

— hochu domoy v UA (@hochu_dodomu) July 12, 2022

Quote:

---

Explosions reported near Chornobaivka, Kherson airport

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-explosions-reported-near-chornobaivka-kherson-airport

Quote:

---

Shelling in Nikopol district, near Marhanets

---

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/12-july-shelling-in-nikopol-district-near-marhanets

It sounds like Russia had the same suspicion as AGLA06.

Soviets hold all the cards now - be interesting to see if they reopen nord after 'maintenance'

Soviet *******s got Europe by their half ball.

You think Russia is concerned about a coming offensive?

The whole front is getting shelled. Geez

Question for those more in the know: how easy is it to replace shells/rockets through production? With Russia using so many and losing more a la the HIMARS strikes, is it realistic to expect some exhaustion of supplies? I imagine it's not too difficult to replace them.