Jayhawk said:
Reports of the Russians' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Mariupol has fallen, the Donbas front, e.g. south of Kharkiv appears to have stabilized. The ~90 M777 tubes should firm up the Ukrainian defensive positions but they are not going to be difference makers when it comes to offensive operations, and the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have the capability to mount any large scale counteroffensive, at least none has been forthcoming thus far. This thing is looking like a real meat grinder from here. The Russians were soundly defeated and prevented from realizing their initial war aims, but they have enough about them to keep the thing going. The Ukrainians have been very disciplined about avoiding reports of their own casualties, but they have to be high and they have to be feeling the wear and tear at this point. There were only so many western quality Ukrainian combat units pre-war and those have got to be exhausted by now at the three month mark. I am confident the national morale is still high and they will be able to field recruits and turn them into competent fighters however. Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.
Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.
Pray for Ukrainian victory.
I think the Ukrainians have been smart about their counter attacks and have shown remarkable restraint for a military watching their country slowly being raped by orcs. The temptation is to try to counter attack everywhere to save as much as possible. Instead, they have picked key salients of the Russian attack and repelled them one at a time. They are massing their forces and striking at weaknesses in the supply lines to force the orcs to retreat or be cut off.
They have cleared the advances towards Kiev, through Sumy, and now Kharkiv. I suspect they will make good use of their advantages (mobility, stealth, night attack capabilities, longer range artillery, and drones) to keep moving east and cut off the supply lines south from Belgorod to Izyum. There is a huge collection of orcs around Izyium that are either going to have to abandon their advances to fight back north, or risk being cut off from supplies.
The orcs have shown no inclination or capability to advance much further in the south around Kherson, so I expect to see the Ukrainians continue to work their way around to the east and south, to cutoff the Donbas, and then move in from west of Kherson to cutoff resupply from Crimea. Yes, it will take time and be bloody, but the Ukrainians are getting stronger with better weapons coming, while the orcs are throwing troops with 5 days training and 50+ year old weaponry directly into the fire.
My money is on Ukraine if we can keep them funded and supplied. I only wonder how far the orcs will let themselves be ground down before they throw in the towel. That will probably depend on how long it takes to get Putin out of power. He will never agree to a full retreat, but I think there are signs that the orc tv commentators and other public figures are starting to feel less threatened by telling the truth about how the war is really going for them, and that is the first important step in my mind towards giving power to a potential coup.