***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,547,985 Views | 47728 Replies | Last: 10 hrs ago by 74OA
Ag In Ok
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MeatDr said:




Twilight or night ops? If the Russians are fighting at dusk and dawn, that's one thing. 1am, that's another.
Or are the simply taking advantage of the full moon?
Sea Speed
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Rossticus said:




What they say may be true but an AKE leaving norfolk is NOT evidence of that. Those ships come and go from there all the time, same as the AO fleet oilers. The soderman is a prepo ship so it may be taking stuff over there, or it could just be doing a scheduled breakout. I dont buy what that tweet is selling at all though.
Rossticus
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rab79
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Rossticus said:


&^($^%$%^& heathens....
NO AMNESTY!

in order for democrats, liberals, progressives et al to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things; by pretending "not to know" there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience. Denial of truth allows easier trespass.
Jayhawk
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Reports of the Russians' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Mariupol has fallen, the Donbas front, e.g. south of Kharkiv appears to have stabilized. The ~90 M777 tubes should firm up the Ukrainian defensive positions but they are not going to be difference makers when it comes to offensive operations, and the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have the capability to mount any large scale counteroffensive, at least none has been forthcoming thus far. This thing is looking like a real meat grinder from here. The Russians were soundly defeated and prevented from realizing their initial war aims, but they have enough about them to keep the thing going. The Ukrainians have been very disciplined about avoiding reports of their own casualties, but they have to be high and they have to be feeling the wear and tear at this point. There were only so many western quality Ukrainian combat units pre-war and those have got to be exhausted by now at the three month mark. I am confident the national morale is still high and they will be able to field recruits and turn them into competent fighters however. Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.

Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.

Pray for Ukrainian victory.
txags92
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rab79 said:

Rossticus said:


&^($^%$%^& heathens....
Every time I see that kind of crap, it makes me just want to see our AF and Navy aviators take off the gloves and bomb every last orc formation in Ukraine back to the point where they are going to have to throw rocks if they want to keep fighting. Every day at least one story comes across the internet that proves they have earned the name orcs and should be called that instead of russians whenever possible.
aezmvp
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I agree in part. But where the Ukrainians have countered in force they have been successful. You are right that it will largely be the West that will finance it.
agent-maroon
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Quote:

Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.

Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.

Pray for Ukrainian victory.
It was always going to come down to this. That's just what the Euros do.
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txags92
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Jayhawk said:

Reports of the Russians' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Mariupol has fallen, the Donbas front, e.g. south of Kharkiv appears to have stabilized. The ~90 M777 tubes should firm up the Ukrainian defensive positions but they are not going to be difference makers when it comes to offensive operations, and the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have the capability to mount any large scale counteroffensive, at least none has been forthcoming thus far. This thing is looking like a real meat grinder from here. The Russians were soundly defeated and prevented from realizing their initial war aims, but they have enough about them to keep the thing going. The Ukrainians have been very disciplined about avoiding reports of their own casualties, but they have to be high and they have to be feeling the wear and tear at this point. There were only so many western quality Ukrainian combat units pre-war and those have got to be exhausted by now at the three month mark. I am confident the national morale is still high and they will be able to field recruits and turn them into competent fighters however. Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.

Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.

Pray for Ukrainian victory.
I think the Ukrainians have been smart about their counter attacks and have shown remarkable restraint for a military watching their country slowly being raped by orcs. The temptation is to try to counter attack everywhere to save as much as possible. Instead, they have picked key salients of the Russian attack and repelled them one at a time. They are massing their forces and striking at weaknesses in the supply lines to force the orcs to retreat or be cut off.

They have cleared the advances towards Kiev, through Sumy, and now Kharkiv. I suspect they will make good use of their advantages (mobility, stealth, night attack capabilities, longer range artillery, and drones) to keep moving east and cut off the supply lines south from Belgorod to Izyum. There is a huge collection of orcs around Izyium that are either going to have to abandon their advances to fight back north, or risk being cut off from supplies.

The orcs have shown no inclination or capability to advance much further in the south around Kherson, so I expect to see the Ukrainians continue to work their way around to the east and south, to cutoff the Donbas, and then move in from west of Kherson to cutoff resupply from Crimea. Yes, it will take time and be bloody, but the Ukrainians are getting stronger with better weapons coming, while the orcs are throwing troops with 5 days training and 50+ year old weaponry directly into the fire.

My money is on Ukraine if we can keep them funded and supplied. I only wonder how far the orcs will let themselves be ground down before they throw in the towel. That will probably depend on how long it takes to get Putin out of power. He will never agree to a full retreat, but I think there are signs that the orc tv commentators and other public figures are starting to feel less threatened by telling the truth about how the war is really going for them, and that is the first important step in my mind towards giving power to a potential coup.
AGS-R-TUFF
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Jayhawk said:

Reports of the Russians' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Mariupol has fallen, the Donbas front, e.g. south of Kharkiv appears to have stabilized. The ~90 M777 tubes should firm up the Ukrainian defensive positions but they are not going to be difference makers when it comes to offensive operations, and the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have the capability to mount any large scale counteroffensive, at least none has been forthcoming thus far. This thing is looking like a real meat grinder from here. The Russians were soundly defeated and prevented from realizing their initial war aims, but they have enough about them to keep the thing going. The Ukrainians have been very disciplined about avoiding reports of their own casualties, but they have to be high and they have to be feeling the wear and tear at this point. There were only so many western quality Ukrainian combat units pre-war and those have got to be exhausted by now at the three month mark. I am confident the national morale is still high and they will be able to field recruits and turn them into competent fighters however. Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.

Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.

Pray for Ukrainian victory.
I can understand your rational. But I disagree with the your assessment of the Ukes counteroffensive capabilities. They are by all accounts, the tactically superior and most highly motivated force in this equation. Their supply line and command/control targeting emphasis has crippled the Russian momentum and inflicted significantly higher casualty and equipment losses on the invaders (in a few months) than most could have even imagined.

There are significant weapon systems being transferred in and high level training underway to ramp the Uke lethality to even greater levels. I also think that there may be some significant things going on behind the scenes to upgrade the Uke airframe capabilities. And if true, imagine what they can do from a combined arms perspective with the new arty, tanks and armored ground systems coming on line.

So yes, this will probably be long winded. But I think the Russians' losses will continue to outpace the Ukes by sizeable margins…eventually resulting in Russia losing ground in both the Donbas and the South.
Ulrich
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I think Ukraine is going to keep making inroads, but it's hard to imagine that a winner will emerge by winter. What happens when it gets cold again?
javajaws
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Ulrich said:

I think Ukraine is going to keep making inroads, but it's hard to imagine that a winner will emerge by winter. What happens when it gets cold again?
Lots of Russians die.
CondensedFogAggie
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https://instagr.am/p/CdovdXcL93S
Quote:

"My brother is on the front. He contacts me as often as he can but he has been silent for 6 days. He is not a volunteer soldier. He is a professional one. In the Ukrainian army since 2019. He told me that one day all men in the country would need to defend Ukraine, and he wanted to be trained before that day came.

He was 19 then. He is 22 years old now and has been in combat a few times since Russia invaded. We had a method of communication set up. 'Alive. Working' meant he is in combat area and cannot speak, but is okay. He sent me this message every day or every two days.

He told me Russian artillery is the worst. (Worst to endure) Russian infantry is scary but only within shouting distance. He said the closer the two armies become the worse the fighting gets. Everyone prefers to keep the enemy as far from them as possible. He told me several times he has been in such a close distance they have thrown grenades at each other.

I am proud of my brother. He was not a brave child growing up. Deep water scared him. Heights scared him. Even the dark scared him. So I respect that he has courage now to do the things many others are afraid to do. He says that everyone is scared and it's not courage that keeps them fighting. It's necessity.

He has told me that courage plays a small role in fighting. You move positions because you have to or you will die. You fight because you have to or you will die. You load ammunition because you have to. You dig trenches because you have to. My brother has changed a lot. I really respect him. I am confident he will survive this war and come home to tell us all his stories.

My brother is a Ukrainian soldier and I am proud of him. To me he is Ukraine and I will always praise him."

- Ukrainian Civilian. May 14th, 2022
Come home safe, brother.
CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:

Bulat Fassakhov, 20, a native of the Russian Republic of Tatarstan, carried out the crimes in the early months of the war in March. Fassakho, who is serving in the 30th Individual Motorized Rifle Brigade, 2nd Guards Merged Military of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation, allegedly barged with 3 comrades into a non-public household in a village in the Brovary district close to Ukraine's capital.


Ukrainian authorities accused Russian soldier Bulat Fassakhov of participating in a gang rape of a younger female. The group forced the spouse and children living there into the avenue, but requested the unnamed victim explained by SSU as a "young girl" to stay at the rear of.
This guy better be a dead man walking. I weep for all the crimes of Mariupol that will be covered up.
JB!98
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:


Quote:

Bulat Fassakhov, 20, a native of the Russian Republic of Tatarstan, carried out the crimes in the early months of the war in March. Fassakho, who is serving in the 30th Individual Motorized Rifle Brigade, 2nd Guards Merged Military of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation, allegedly barged with 3 comrades into a non-public household in a village in the Brovary district close to Ukraine's capital.


Ukrainian authorities accused Russian soldier Bulat Fassakhov of participating in a gang rape of a younger female. The group forced the spouse and children living there into the avenue, but requested the unnamed victim explained by SSU as a "young girl" to stay at the rear of.
This guy better be a dead man walking. I weep for all the crimes of Mariupol that will be covered up.
Perfect exposed windpipe and skinny neck for some K-Bar work. Hope it happens to this vile F'er.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
CondensedFogAggie
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"They found a woman who looked like my daughter, but without a head." How volunteers, prosecutors, and police together with criminologists from France identify Ukrainians killed by Russians




Some excerpts

Quote:

I try to look into the distance with my glass eyes. Bring the man to the tent. A woman with an eight-year-old boy is already standing nearby. Volunteer Volodymyr Miroshnychenko explains that the childs turn is not coming soon. He is very hungry, and you cant eat before the test so we need to let the boy go ahead. His DNA samples will be taken to find his father.

"My dad will come back from the war," the boy says. "And he will teach me to ride a bike."

Miroshnychenko and I pretend that we dont exist. Most likely, his dad is here, next door in the same refrigerator truck.

https://babel.ua/en/texts/78474-they-found-a-woman-who-looked-like-my-daughter-but-without-a-head-how-volunteers-prosecutors-and-police-together-with-criminologists-from-france-identify-ukrainians-killed-by-russians-report-from-the-?utm_source=group&utm_medium=facebook
CondensedFogAggie
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Quote:


Today, the capacities of the Turkish manufacturer Baykar Makina are such that, on average, one attack drone per day can be sent to the territory of Ukraine. However, once every two weeks, military transport aircraft depart from the territory of the Turkish city of Tekirdag, which, according to sources, deliver attack drones to the territory of neighboring Poland, which are subsequently transported to Ukraine.

"It is profitable for Ukraine to buy Turkish attack drones, and it is profitable for Turkey to sell them. We are not even talking about complexes, but about the drones themselves, which may well work with control systems previously delivered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. - the analyst notes.

To date, according to official statistics, more than 50 Bayraktar TB2 drones have been destroyed during the JMD in Ukraine, but Ukraine, apparently thanks to Turkey, is quickly making up for losses.



CondensedFogAggie
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CondensedFogAggie
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"Overdose of cotton.", yeah sure buddy
CondensedFogAggie
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Apparently our guys have been forgotten' Parents of Russian conscripts who disappeared aboard the Moskva still seeking answers one month later


Excerpts
Quote:

Representatives of the Black Sea Fleet didn't want to take me to the hospitals [where the sailors from the Moskva were being treated], but I managed to get into three. There, I saw normal, living guys, there were about 20 of them in total. I found out that they had signed something like a non-disclosure agreement for five years.

I tried to speak with one of the boys, he was with my son at the same time and place. But as soon as he started talking, the two women in uniform came over and then he said that he couldn't say anything because of the NDA. One boy managed to tell me in a whisper that they [the surviving sailors] were "scattered all over Russia."

The next day, I returned to the hospital again, but the boys flatly refused to talk. Some of the guys were in a very depressed state. I understand them perfectly. I tried to talk with them, albeit unsuccessfully. I showed them [the sailors in the hospital] photos of all the [missing] guys that I had. Some recognized them, but they conferred [with each other] and didn't tell me anything about anyone.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/17/apparently-our-guys-have-been-forgotten
black_ice
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Ulrich said:

I think Ukraine is going to keep making inroads, but it's hard to imagine that a winner will emerge by winter. What happens when it gets cold again?


Many Russians will die. Their supply logistics are terrible.
Rossticus
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lb3
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Ulrich said:

I think Ukraine is going to keep making inroads, but it's hard to imagine that a winner will emerge by winter. What happens when it gets cold again?
It's possible they settle into a stalemate that lasts until December or longer but I think it's just as likely that Ukraine stays on defense and keeps the KIA ratio in their favor and we see a broad Russian collapse before then.
74OA
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Rossticus said:


This is in response to Kiev putting that Russian soldier on trial for war crimes.

It is intended to undercut Ukraine's claim to the moral high ground and threaten a price for further prosecutions.
MeatDr
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MeatDr
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MeatDr
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This is just south of the area mentioned on the post above.
MeatDr
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sclaff
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JFABNRGR
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For those discussing counter drone attacks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/us9d34/ukrainian_drone_pilot_supposedly_targeted_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
P.U.T.U
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Jayhawk said:

Reports of the Russians' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Mariupol has fallen, the Donbas front, e.g. south of Kharkiv appears to have stabilized. The ~90 M777 tubes should firm up the Ukrainian defensive positions but they are not going to be difference makers when it comes to offensive operations, and the Ukrainian Army does not appear to have the capability to mount any large scale counteroffensive, at least none has been forthcoming thus far. This thing is looking like a real meat grinder from here. The Russians were soundly defeated and prevented from realizing their initial war aims, but they have enough about them to keep the thing going. The Ukrainians have been very disciplined about avoiding reports of their own casualties, but they have to be high and they have to be feeling the wear and tear at this point. There were only so many western quality Ukrainian combat units pre-war and those have got to be exhausted by now at the three month mark. I am confident the national morale is still high and they will be able to field recruits and turn them into competent fighters however. Their biggest weakness remains the fact that they cannot finance the war themselves.. and they will be depending upon some extremely undependable allies in the form of Germany and France.. both of whom will take anything resembling a satisfactory peace.

Ultimately, it is likely that for the Ukrainians to endure, the United States Government will have to bankroll their side of this war.

Pray for Ukrainian victory.
Take it you have never studied war before, artillery can very much be an offensive weapon, without it the Allies would have not been able to defeat the Axis. When most people hear "cover and move" they think of small arms but that is not the case. You lay down an artillery barraige and have infantry come in underneath of it. Russia knows this is coming which is why in the Donbas region they have been working on trenches for the past month. Artillery is great but unless you get a direct hit or have an air burst munition then you are safe in the trench.

It has been said how nasty this war has been but you have not seen anything yet. If Ukraine wants to take back the east and southeast areas then it is going to be a lot of artillery and close up fighting. Whoever has the best tactics of artillery, tanks, and infantry has the best chance to win. Seeing as Russia has not been utilizing their tanks and infantry at all yet does not bode well for them. WW2 showed the importance of that synergy
AgLA06
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You're right. But I don't think Ukraine can engage in a WWI style trench warfare offensive.

I think they'll keep doing what they are now. Fix the enemy with blocking units and find a way to flank them and cut them and their supplies off from the rear. If the reports this morning of Ukraine troops now 90km northeast of Izyum is correct and they are that deep in the rear, Russia might soon panic like they did north of Kiev and retreat.

Russia's weakness is their lack of resolve in their troops and pathetic logistics. Ukraine is really taking advantage of that.

P.U.T.U
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I don't see that happening, Russia is dug in and unless Ukraine gets air superiority they have no choice but to fight it out on the ground. Russia wants the sea ports and manufacturing resources of the area since without it they are done as a country in a generation. They don't have the labor to support their current population and now they have taken almost 1 million Ukes back to Russia.

Most people don't realize Russia and Ukraine have been fighting in the Donbas area since 2014, there has been around 30 cease fires. These aren't the Russian soldiers that tried to take Kiev, they are experienced. Most of the units fought in Grozny, Chechnya, and Crimea.

Russia is doing what every other dying empire has done through history, a land grab for resources. The Donbas and Crimea area are very rich in resources and have a big labor pool to grab from. Putin is dead set on Novorossiya and can care less how many soldiers he loses as long as he can expand his empire.

I think everyone is overconfident in Ukraine right now, this war will go on for a while and will be hard fought. Yes Ukraine has better tactics but remember the Stalin saying "quantity has a quality of its own". Ukraine has to cut off logistics before they do a major offensive in the area or Russia will keep sending troops and equipment.
benchmark
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AgLA06 said:

I think they'll keep doing what they are now. Fix the enemy with blocking units and find a way to flank them and cut them and their supplies off from the rear. If the reports this morning of Ukraine troops now 90km northeast of Isium is correct and they are that deep in the rear, Russia might soon panic like they did north of Kiev and retreat
They're not that deep yet ... they just crossed the Donets and are trying to secure the east bank. Likely with mobile assault groups. This is shaping up for a major assault on Vovchansk to cut the critical supply route from Belgorod. Will be interesting to follow.
GAC06
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Quote:

Russia wants the sea ports and manufacturing resources of the area since without it they are done as a country in a generation.


Russia's problem is demographics and culture. They already had ports on the Black Sea
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