aggiehawg said:So much this. Russia's standing in the world will never be the same.Quote:
Honestly, win, lose, or draw in this conflict, Putin has made a massive strategic blunder. This will take Russia decades to recover from. Even if they withdraw, I see some sanctions, like those against military supply chains, becoming permanent. They're going to waste a huge portion of their military assets in Ukraine, and they won't have the cash or the suppliers to rebuild them. They've also only strengthened their adversaries in NATO and China, and they've blown years of strategic development to get Europe dependent on Russian gas. They'll still be about to sell it, but Europe is on a path to diversification, and they're not going to be looking back after this. That political leverage is going to be gone.
This line of discussion may not belong in this thread (if so sorry mods), but what is so perplexing to me is the timing of the decision. Russia had been so patient and deliberate in its covert and subversive attacks against the West. It was winning hands down and the West was on the verge on self destruction due to partisan in-fighting, unchecked immigration, and ESG initiatives. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine may have singlehandedly saved the West. Not sure if the decision was motivated by Putin's alleged declining health, his over confidence given Russia's past successes, or miscalculation of the resolve within Ukraine or weakness of the West, but whatever his decision was based on, I think it's pretty clear at this point it was huge tactical error.
