Ukraine has consistently been pretty adamant that the ability to contest airspace in the east and south will be a critical element to securing victory.

Rossticus said:

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Ukraine has consistently been pretty adamant that the ability to contest airspace in the east and south will be a critical element to securing victory.

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Which will probably involve taking out air defense on the Russian side of the border, no?

Beat40 said:

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Rossticus said:

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The MiG sitch is so weird considering how heavily everything else is flowing into Ukraine and our willingness to either backfill or guarantee security where other arms are concerned. Something isn't logically adding up.

Slovak PM Eduard Heger says Slovakia could transfer its 11 MiG-29s if it gets guarantees from the US.

The Pentagon said tonight that it won’t object to such a transfer but that there’s no discussion about a backfill or alternative air protection for Slovakia at the moment. pic.twitter.com/gwY2oqGXMi

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 12, 2022

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Personally I don't see how sending MiGs actually helps Ukraine in a dramatic way win the war.

Personally, I think there are people who want to do it to show support for Zelensky since he keeps asking for them and there is a other faction that believes it doesn't really help Ukraine significantly.

That's my read on any hold up.

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With Zelensky's track record, I think I would side with him.

shiftyandquick said:

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Rossticus said:

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Ukraine has consistently been pretty adamant that the ability to contest airspace in the east and south will be a critical element to securing victory.

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Which will probably involve taking out air defense on the Russian side of the border, no?

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Potentially, if necessary. But if Russia is lobbing missiles into Ukrainian airspace then I'd say that solidifies them as free game.

Beat40 said:

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Personally I don't see how sending MiGs actually helps Ukraine in a dramatic way win the war.

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Maybe not directly ... but if valuable resources are diverted for air defense and battle plans are altered then the threat affect may be dramatic.

Rossticus said:

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New video associated with that point blank tank shot. Russians or Ukrainians? Guessing Spook thinks it's Russians.

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Here is the video I mentioned in my post a little while ago. Doesn't show anything graphic, but pretty much everyone in it dies a split second after it ends. Blue armbands are clearly seen in this video. Still can't figure out what exactly lead to this.

"Get souvenirs so you can tell home how you killed Separtist".Russian tank youp pic.twitter.com/Uv5HajpXS3

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) April 12, 2022

⚡️General Atomics, is ready to supply Predator and or Reaper drones to Ukraine if the US approves the transfer. This comes after Markarova (Ukraines ambassador to the US) met with officials of General Atomics last week.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 12, 2022

Best I've been able to tell is simply poor discipline. Everyone effing off and posing for a photo op. A couple of guys up the road each way to simply ensure security and this doesn't happen.

Rossticus said:

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Best I've been able to tell is simply poor discipline. Everyone effing off and posing for a photo op. A couple of guys up the road each way to simply ensure security and this doesn't happen.

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That's more or less what I think too. The tank crew probably thought they were Russians trying to recover the BMD and the Ukrainians probably thought it was one of their tanks (or a captured Russian tank). Just a wild scenario.

JFABNRGR said:

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MeatDr said:

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⚡️General Atomics, is ready to supply Predator and or Reaper drones to Ukraine if the US approves the transfer. This comes after Markarova (Ukraines ambassador to the US) met with officials of General Atomics last week.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 12, 2022

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This would be one of the most effective weapons against russia and IMO should have already been operational from day one and I DGAF who is operating them from where. 4 drops to one per sortie, on heavy armor compared to TB2.

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Let's hope the "non escalators" GTFO of the way and approve these.

MeatDr said:

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⚡️General Atomics, is ready to supply Predator and or Reaper drones to Ukraine if the US approves the transfer. This comes after Markarova (Ukraines ambassador to the US) met with officials of General Atomics last week.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 12, 2022

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Predator or Reaper drones to Ukraine would be a game changer ... extremely long range with Hellfire, laser guided bombs, or JDAM capability. Highest and best use are hard targets like supply depots, fuel storage, airfields, ports, bridges, command and control centers, etc.

AgBQ-00 said:

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Rossticus said:

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There are Unconfirmed reports that Rail Networks across Poland and other Eastern European Countries in the last week or so have begun to experience Significant Delays due to the High Volume of NATO Military Equipment heading East towards The Baltics and the Ukrainian Border. pic.twitter.com/La3RvaB37U

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 12, 2022

No comments pic.twitter.com/MQDhVbZ5f9

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) April 12, 2022

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This really is going to happen isn't it?

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Reminds me of rail line along the Hardy Toll Road going to port of Houston during the First Gulf War.

Kind of fascinating what is (and isn't) showing on the www.adsbexchange.com website tonight. 140 military aircraft showing up in the air over the US, including 11 KC-135 tankers. Over all of Eastern and Central Europe, there are zero military aircraft showing up. I am sure they are still there, but every single one of them has turned off their transponder.

benchmark said:

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MeatDr said:

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⚡️General Atomics, is ready to supply Predator and or Reaper drones to Ukraine if the US approves the transfer. This comes after Markarova (Ukraines ambassador to the US) met with officials of General Atomics last week.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 12, 2022

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Predator or Reaper drones to Ukraine would be a game changer ... extremely long range with Hellfire, laser guided bombs, or JDAM capability. Highest and best use are hard targets like supply depots, fuel storage, airfields, ports, bridges, command and control centers, etc.

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how would these fare against Russian air defense systems?.. are any of these drones "stealth" or do we have other ways of avoiding Russian air defense systems? Just curious, it seems these drones would cause the Russians some serious problems..

Good question. I imagine we don't want Russia or China getting their hands on them.

fullback44 said:

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benchmark said:

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MeatDr said:

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⚡️General Atomics, is ready to supply Predator and or Reaper drones to Ukraine if the US approves the transfer. This comes after Markarova (Ukraines ambassador to the US) met with officials of General Atomics last week.⚡️

— spook (@spook_info) April 12, 2022

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Predator or Reaper drones to Ukraine would be a game changer ... extremely long range with Hellfire, laser guided bombs, or JDAM capability. Highest and best use are hard targets like supply depots, fuel storage, airfields, ports, bridges, command and control centers, etc.

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how would these fare against Russian air defense systems?.. are any of these drones "stealth" or do we have other ways of avoiding Russian air defense systems? Just curious, it seems these drones would cause the Russians some serious problems..

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Both can fly at 60,000 feet which will put them beyond the reach of manpads and some of the older Russian systems. Not sure they are otherwise particularly stealthy.

Barvinkove in eastern Europe, where there will likely be clashes soon. They have a 1940's machine gun, Ukes don't care as long as it fires.

AgLA06 said:

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Good question. I imagine we don't want Russia or China getting their hands on them.

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So I did some reading up, some of these drones we may actually have in storage because we have newer stuff, might as well let Ukraine drop some heavy guided munitions on some Russian assets.. Ukes could really F the Russians Up from a long ways up.. 50,000 feet is quite a ways away..

This has been the way it looks everyday. In Europe at night almost no pings. A normal day there (EU) about 70 at one time aircraft on a big day 165.

The only out of ordinary today that i saw (evidence of) was our global hawke went in and out of the black sea with a heading to odessa before pinging off and back on. I say evidence because it may have been over UKR a lot and we wouldn't know it but this was the first I have seen a heading in and out of the black sea that way.

aggiehawg said:

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GAC06 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Didn't realize we still had Harriers in service.

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Come on

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Sorry, but I didn't. Thought they had been mothballed about ten years ago.

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So did most of the ground combat element.

JFABNRGR said:

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This has been the way it looks everyday. In Europe at night almost no pings. A normal day there (EU) about 70 at one time aircraft on a big day 165.

The only out of ordinary today that i saw (evidence of) was our global hawke went in and out of the black sea with a heading to odessa before pinging off and back on. I say evidence because it may have been over UKR a lot and we wouldn't know it but this was the first I have seen a heading in and out of the black sea that way.

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Usually there are some C17s coming across to of from Poland, a few tankers, etc. The surveillance planes like the E3s, Rivet Joints, and drones seems to come and go, sometimes they squawk, sometimes they don't. But right now it is just empty.

Beat40 said:

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Rossticus said:

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The MiG sitch is so weird considering how heavily everything else is flowing into Ukraine and our willingness to either backfill or guarantee security where other arms are concerned. Something isn't logically adding up.

Slovak PM Eduard Heger says Slovakia could transfer its 11 MiG-29s if it gets guarantees from the US.

The Pentagon said tonight that it won’t object to such a transfer but that there’s no discussion about a backfill or alternative air protection for Slovakia at the moment. pic.twitter.com/gwY2oqGXMi

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 12, 2022

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Personally I don't see how sending MiGs actually helps Ukraine in a dramatic way win the war.

Personally, I think there are people who want to do it to show support for Zelensky since he keeps asking for them and there is a other faction that believes it doesn't really help Ukraine significantly.

That's my read on any hold up.

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A report I read a few weeks back on the Ukrainian air assets explained it as they just don't have enough fully operational fighter jets to conduct more than a few sorties per day. Apparently they are listed as having as many as 50 fighters but in the article it was stated that day to day the number of flight ready planes is far less. I don't recall the exact number but supposedly for every hour of combat time in the air a large number of hours of maintenance is required to maintain the operational status and this is where the Ukes are struggling. They don't have the spare parts or time to get more than a few planes in the air at any one time. They can't buy parts from Russia and are most likely stripping planes down for parts to keep others flying so the 50 total fighters in inventory doesn't reflect reality. They have more trained pilots than they have flight ready jets so they need more aircraft.

If they could put 9 or 10 planes in the air a day I think that would make a big difference in the war.

txags92 said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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This has been the way it looks everyday. In Europe at night almost no pings. A normal day there (EU) about 70 at one time aircraft on a big day 165.

The only out of ordinary today that i saw (evidence of) was our global hawke went in and out of the black sea with a heading to odessa before pinging off and back on. I say evidence because it may have been over UKR a lot and we wouldn't know it but this was the first I have seen a heading in and out of the black sea that way.

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Usually there are some C17s coming across to of from Poland, a few tankers, etc. The surveillance planes like the E3s, Rivet Joints, and drones seems to come and go, sometimes they squawk, sometimes they don't. But right now it is just empty.

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In the old west, they said "be worried if you can see an Apache; be really worried if you can't ."

bonfarr said:

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Beat40 said:

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Rossticus said:

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The MiG sitch is so weird considering how heavily everything else is flowing into Ukraine and our willingness to either backfill or guarantee security where other arms are concerned. Something isn't logically adding up.

Slovak PM Eduard Heger says Slovakia could transfer its 11 MiG-29s if it gets guarantees from the US.

The Pentagon said tonight that it won’t object to such a transfer but that there’s no discussion about a backfill or alternative air protection for Slovakia at the moment. pic.twitter.com/gwY2oqGXMi

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 12, 2022

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Personally I don't see how sending MiGs actually helps Ukraine in a dramatic way win the war.

Personally, I think there are people who want to do it to show support for Zelensky since he keeps asking for them and there is a other faction that believes it doesn't really help Ukraine significantly.

That's my read on any hold up.

---

A report I read a few weeks back on the Ukrainian air assets explained it as they just don't have enough fully operational fighter jets to conduct more than a few sorties per day. Apparently they are listed as having as many as 50 fighters but in the article it was stated that day to day the number of flight ready planes is far less. I don't recall the exact number but supposedly for every hour of combat time in the air a large number of hours of maintenance is required to maintain the operational status and this is where the Ukes are struggling. They don't have the spare parts or time to get more than a few planes in the air at any one time. They can't buy parts from Russia and are most likely stripping planes down for parts to keep others flying so the 50 total fighters in inventory doesn't reflect reality. They have more trained pilots than they have flight ready jets so they need more aircraft.

If they could put 9 or 10 planes in the air a day I think that would make a big difference in the war.

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Another squadron of MIGs would definitely have an impact. The Russians have been rolling in endless columns of armor on the roads to avoid getting stuck in the mud. Not saying fish in a barrel…but lots of fat targets for sure.

The fact that Putin attacked two Western Ukrainian airports when the Poland 29 MIG deal was being bumbled, says a lot. The Russians want to absolutely limit the Ukes from expanding their theater wide capabilities.

Rossticus said:

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Best I've been able to tell is simply poor discipline. Everyone effing off and posing for a photo op. A couple of guys up the road each way to simply ensure security and this doesn't happen.

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Does anyone know if they are speaking Russian or Ukrainian? If Russian, my guess is friendly fire.

Russians have been wearing Ukrainian camouflage and perhaps this group of numb nuts put on blue tape and simply forgot. Some don't appear to be wearing tape. That's the best I can come up with due to how nonchalant they are acting when the tanks approach.

That is AWESOME!

This photo makes me as sick as anything I've seen.

Kadyrov’s Chechen soldiers are committing war crimes across Ukraine.

People are documenting their sick acts. It will be used as evidence against them in Nuremberg 2. pic.twitter.com/u8AzIeDtHj

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 12, 2022

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