Do we have corroboration on this? Without a plant name, it's hard to verify.Rossticus said:On Google Maps there really is a plant, but it's just old satellite images — this plant was completely demolished years ago
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) April 8, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 3 hrs ago by sclaff
After further review of additional footage, it seems this was certainly an airburst with fragmentation (damage/blood on 3 sides of the bldg). Fragmentation almost always means Anti-personnel utilizing several hundred to thousands of small steel fragments. This would explain the limited damage to structure and no craters. With several hundred LB of explosives I still believe this rocket(s) did not fully work as capable, by the amount of intact glass and roof, either due to partial internal failure, intercept, etc.Rossticus said:aggiehawg said:Then where are the parts of the warhead? Wouldn't there be some evidence? A crater? Other parts somewhere?JFABNRGR said:aggiehawg said:
Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.
Part of info missing is likely that 2 rockets were fired. One failed or was taken out and the other impacted as targeted.
"SS-21 / Tochka-U's basic 9N123F conventional warhead is 120kg of high explosives and is designed for fragmentation [shrapnel]. But it can also carry 9N123 cluster munitions, which Russia has used repeatedly in the war, even against hospital facilities."
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-banned-cluster-munion-used-syria
I think the US mentioned this was a strategic target, but I strongly disagree. If you center the radius of damage the explosion occurred on the north end of the depot, where you buy tickets use the restroom etc where mostly passengers would be located, while missing the majority of industrial/commercial part of the yard and well beyond the blast radius of this weapon. There is zero evidence of any damage to track or trains and I am confident even the closet lines are completely operational. Coincidentally the remaining fuselage part of the rocket is about 300 feet from the center of the blast which also happens to be the expected damage radius of this warhead.
If I wanted to destroy the RR I would use HE explosive type warhead NOT fragmentation and I would target a bridge on the mainlines not yard track (several north and south of this location) or would have centered on the industrial/commercial part of the yard where transloading equipment is located and knowing a train loaded with something that would cook off creating much more damage. I would have also used multiple rockets not a single, which what I now believe this was changing my previous thought.
This missile has a 95M CEP (circular error probability) and those *******s hit their target evidenced by the blood soaked teddy bear that was in some childs arms at the moment they died. **** russia.
James Vasquez made it sound like he was running low on ammo. With all the heavy machinery coming in, hopefully nations aren't forgetting that they need bullets.Rossticus said:Media kind of makes it sound like I’m ripping Ukraine for providing a lack of weapons and equipment, I’m not, Ukraine is doing everything they can with what they have. We need other nations to help
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022I have another American soldier joining our unit. He is in country and will be joining us tomorrow afternoon. He is a former U.S. Army infantryman. Looking forward to getting him settled in.
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022
So, is that why you think there was some malfunction? Or is that part of the design? I keep seeing two different positions on whether that piece separated as designed or not.Quote:
Coincidentally the remaining fuselage part of the rocket is about 300 feet from the center of the blast which also happens to be the expected damage radius of this warhead.
TIA.
I don't understand the idea of conscripting the local population that you've just tormented. They seem like a tremendous liability at best, and a massive risk of sabotage at worst. Where is the logic in this tactic?
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
Waffledynamics said:
I don't understand the idea of conscripting the local population that you've just tormented. They seem like a tremendous liability at best, and a massive risk of sabotage at worst. Where is the logic in this tactic?
No logic. Just cruelty. But it's what Russia does. Bodies to soak up bullets.
aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
How about the part of being able to determine origin of the missile just from the positioning on the ground of the rocket body? That seems kind of random to me.Ulysses90 said:aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
That explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Cluster munitions, whether from an artillery shell or a rocket, are designed with what is referred to as an "expelling charge" rather than a "bursting sharge". The idea is that the submunitions are expelled at ~20m above the ground to scatter the submunitions to cover a large area with fragmentation. The rocket body is mostly undamaged from the detaonation of the expelling charge but will be damaged, but still in one piece, from hitting the ground.
How do they stop them from sabotage, surrender, and desertion in significant enough numbers? They have no motivation to achieve the Russian objectives. None of this makes any sense. Russia is just making it all worse for themselves.Rossticus said:Waffledynamics said:
I don't understand the idea of conscripting the local population that you've just tormented. They seem like a tremendous liability at best, and a massive risk of sabotage at worst. Where is the logic in this tactic?
No logic. Just cruelty. But it's what Russia does. Bodies to soak up bullets.
From LiveUAMap:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-ukrainian-army-repelled-russian-attack-in-donetsk
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-ukrainian-army-repelled-russian-attack-in-donetsk
Quote:
Ukrainian army repelled Russian attack in Donetsk region, and conducted successful counterattack
✊ 25-та окрема Січеславська повітрянодесантна бригада провела успішну контратаку на Донеччині
— Wacther Guuruᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠᅠ༝ (@Banderivecj) April 9, 2022
На фото результат.
🇺🇦 Речник Одеської Військової Адміністрації pic.twitter.com/jDwra4g8px
Waffledynamics said:How do they stop them from sabotage, surrender, and desertion in significant enough numbers? They have no motivation to achieve the Russian objectives. None of this makes any sense. Russia is just making it all worse for themselves.Rossticus said:Waffledynamics said:
I don't understand the idea of conscripting the local population that you've just tormented. They seem like a tremendous liability at best, and a massive risk of sabotage at worst. Where is the logic in this tactic?
No logic. Just cruelty. But it's what Russia does. Bodies to soak up bullets.
I assume they do what they've historically done and put them in positions where they're essentially just cannon fodder and shoot anyone who hesitates to follow an order. I agree that it's not particularly effective but that doesn't stop them from doing lots of messed up things.
Hmm... From LiveUAMap, updated 2 hours ago:
But the video looks really familiar. Have we seen this already?
https://t.me/UkraineNow/9198
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-russian-shelling-again-targeted-cylinder-with-nytricQuote:
Russian shelling again targeted cylinder with nytric acid in Rubizhne. Hazardous condition. Shelter in place, use individual protection equipment
But the video looks really familiar. Have we seen this already?
https://t.me/UkraineNow/9198
Agreed. I'm no expert, but it just doesn't seem like Russia is doing anything to actually win this. It doesn't sound like the Ukrainian resolve is breaking much. In fact, they may only be getting more staunchly defiant of the Bear.
From LiveUAMap:
Someone in the replies on Twitter says it's fake. Fact check?
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-russian-army-using-suicide-drones-in-luhansk-regionQuote:
Russian army using suicide drones in Luhansk region
На Луганщині ворог атакував позиції українських прикордонників дронами-камікадзе - на щастя, ніхто з військових не постраждав.
— Букви (@Bykvu) April 9, 2022
📸: Державна прикордонна служба України pic.twitter.com/mt9PwENVO2
Someone in the replies on Twitter says it's fake. Fact check?
The European flag flies again above the #EU Delegation in #Kyiv as Ambassador @MattiMaasikas returns! @eu_eeas #StandUpForUkraine https://t.co/9iA5nMCe8k
— Andrew Jacobs 🇪🇺🇹🇱🇺🇦 (@Andrew_JacobsEU) April 9, 2022
First I don't think that its uncommon for rockets of this type to separate like this. Similar to our own personal fireworks we launch, they go bang and pieces separate either by design or not. To me the booster laying close by and being mostly intact is very plausible and has become a serious distraction to what everybody should be focused on which is russia continues to commit atrocious acts of violence on civilians.....kids.aggiehawg said:
Also, could you review this and let me know if it is accurate? This guy is cited by mostly pro-Putin sources but it sounds plausible.
This article contains multiple points incorrect:
- Russia absolutely has these still in their arsenal and there is documentation of them shipping them to the war theatre in the last 2 weeks.
- The B model which this supposedly is has a CEP of 95 M not 150.
- The russians on three sides are ABSOLUTLEY within 120KM and in some directions only 60 KM away.
My bet is it was launched from the NE Rubizhne area and shipped in off the T1302 and then from R07 where it came in from russia. This would put the launch, the blast, and the booster portion all in a line. Rubizhne is only 70 KM from the rail station.
There is no reason for ukrainians to commit some heinous crime against themselves, to garner more support than they are getting. There is no shortage of evidence of the russians completely destroying civilians and civilian structures across ukraine and every other war they have ever been involved in. The risk of UKR getting caught in something of this scale would risk getting any further support cut off. This of course does not discount the fact that at the individual level some ukrainian soldiers have mistreated POWs etc.
Thank you.
Great analysis and consistent with everything that I've read thus far.
MeatDr said:So the day before yesterday, as I said we are remobilizing to a combat heavy area. Me and Brit rented a flat to relax. Just got back. Half our unit elected to go home which was their option.😞 I understand. Lots of these guys have never held a weapon and have kids who miss ‘em.
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022
Lots of the mercenaries have never held a weapon? Something is wrong with that.
This is the same country that has a proud tradition of giving one gun to every two conscripts before a charge on an enemy position so that when the first one dies the second can pick up the gun and keep going. Conscripts are cheap, material is expensive, and if the conscripts malfunction your aristocratic officers can just discard them, which is to say shoot them or send them to a labor camp.
I said proud tradition because that sort of thing has been lionized since at least 1812 when they drove Napoleon out, and it has been repeated some of Russia's most legendary military moments. "Quantity has a quality all its own" isn't a Stalin thing to say, it's a Russian thing to say.*
On defense, Russia trades soil for time and logistical advantage. On offense, they trade blood for soil.
Imagine if every heroic general the US had, from Washington to Lee to Patton and Ike, fought like US Grant. That is the contingent path that has informed Russia's military mythos.
From that perspective, using someone else's worthless peasants as cannon fodder makes perfect sense, it's two birds with one stone.
I said proud tradition because that sort of thing has been lionized since at least 1812 when they drove Napoleon out, and it has been repeated some of Russia's most legendary military moments. "Quantity has a quality all its own" isn't a Stalin thing to say, it's a Russian thing to say.*
On defense, Russia trades soil for time and logistical advantage. On offense, they trade blood for soil.
Imagine if every heroic general the US had, from Washington to Lee to Patton and Ike, fought like US Grant. That is the contingent path that has informed Russia's military mythos.
From that perspective, using someone else's worthless peasants as cannon fodder makes perfect sense, it's two birds with one stone.
*with the normal footnote that Russians are people too, and not every Russian is the same, but we're talking about tendencies and the environment that informs a culture and material circumstances that inform decision-making on a mass scale.
Not really, same thing happened in Syria/Iraq when volunteers from all over signed up to join the Kurds to fight ISIS. The Kurds had to send most away...Pinochet said:MeatDr said:So the day before yesterday, as I said we are remobilizing to a combat heavy area. Me and Brit rented a flat to relax. Just got back. Half our unit elected to go home which was their option.😞 I understand. Lots of these guys have never held a weapon and have kids who miss ‘em.
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022
Lots of the mercenaries have never held a weapon? Something is wrong with that.
He may be fighting with Ukraine regional volunteer forces. There were lots of videos of Ukrainians returning home to families after the Kiev defense was over. From the videos he's posted (including the one with the red head female) most in his unit appeared to be locals.
Well done. This is also what I'm hearing from my sources as well.
This is huge.MeatDr said:“Orban needs an ophthalmologist to see #Bucha. The restoration of relations is possible only after a change in the assessments of the war in #Ukraine,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) April 9, 2022
From my short time in the area it was my belief the hungarians also hate russians but there is a good chance hungarian leadership has been corrupted by FSB and likely with hunter b type stuff including what you can go to jail for simply by reposting.
It seems the Poles are leading the way in support of UKR. I suspect their red line already thin is getting thinner.
Wonder if he is talking about Uke civilians maybe?Pinochet said:MeatDr said:So the day before yesterday, as I said we are remobilizing to a combat heavy area. Me and Brit rented a flat to relax. Just got back. Half our unit elected to go home which was their option.😞 I understand. Lots of these guys have never held a weapon and have kids who miss ‘em.
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022
Lots of the mercenaries have never held a weapon? Something is wrong with that.
I think the longer this goes on the greater the chance that Poland ends up with boots on the ground
Agree but they'll fly in first.wangus12 said:
I think the longer this goes on the greater the chance that Poland ends up with boots on the ground
I'm curious what the Ukrainian options are for taking all or part of the Donbas and occupied southern regions. Their progress with Kherson seems stymied by Russia rigging the bridge across the Dnieper to blow. Does Ukraine try to blitzkrieg across the river with combat engineers and swoop down into Kherson? Do they focus in the East on places like Kharkiv where there's heavy shelling and fighting already? Do they try to capture Izium? Do they play atrittion and try to weaken the Russians before a massive counteroffensive? Where do they really go from here?
That Azov group sounds like a royal pain in the ass for the Russians.
Speaking of Azov, there's an update on LiveUAMap that leads to a Twitter post that is age restricted for some reason (though I can't tell where any graphic sights are).
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-mariupol-accurate-mortar-fire-by-azov-targeting-russian
Also:
Quote:
Mariupol: Accurate mortar fire by Azov targeting Russian supply trucks loaded with ammunition
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-mariupol-accurate-mortar-fire-by-azov-targeting-russian
Also:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-april-russian-ministry-of-defense-reports-it-targeted-malteseflaggedQuote:
Russian Ministry of Defense reports it targeted Maltese-flagged General Cargo Vessel Apache(IMO: 8955586) in Azov Sea with artillery fire after it suspected the vessel in attempt to help "Azov" in Mariupol. The vessel caught fire and later was brought to Yeysk port
I would think the more costly this is to russia, the less likely a NATO country changes the dynamic.
Said in another way, it is cheaper and safer for Poland to stretch out this war than to escalate. Besides escilation / Poland (NATO) boots on the ground increases the prob of nuclear war. They just need Russia to keep bleeding.
Said in another way, it is cheaper and safer for Poland to stretch out this war than to escalate. Besides escilation / Poland (NATO) boots on the ground increases the prob of nuclear war. They just need Russia to keep bleeding.
wangus12 said:Wonder if he is talking about Uke civilians maybe?Pinochet said:MeatDr said:So the day before yesterday, as I said we are remobilizing to a combat heavy area. Me and Brit rented a flat to relax. Just got back. Half our unit elected to go home which was their option.😞 I understand. Lots of these guys have never held a weapon and have kids who miss ‘em.
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 9, 2022
Lots of the mercenaries have never held a weapon? Something is wrong with that.
Yes, without going back to look, I believe he's mentioned before that he and "Brit" (the UK guy in his unit) are the only two foreigners, and they've spent a lot of time training the rest of the unit.
We did!
— the Dirty Dozen (@RipRawlings) April 9, 2022
Thanks for retweeting.
(Bawk-bawk) no chickens were harmed during this video!
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