Rossticus said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Rossticus said:

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Ulysses90 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I don't know why I never thought about this, before the war Russia did not have enough citizens to keep up with economic production and would collapse within a generation or two. Well if you steal over a half million citizens you may have just saved your country in the long term. Sneaky *******s

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I have a hard time believing the number is that high. Making a half million people disappear even in a country as big as Russia would only work if they are all shipped o Gulags and Labor Camps.

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Another point: how would Russia have the logistics to ship over 500k people into their country, but not the logistics to feed and supply their army, among other things?

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I share your skepticism. Kidnapping 500k people is a huge logistical task and I would venture to say that based on historical precedent from the Nazis it requires trains. If the Russians had enough trucks, civilian or otherwise, to transport 500k captives they would be using those to support their Army.

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They're using civilian busses to move them out of Ukraine. Militaries don't use civilian busses for troop transport.

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That's still a hell of a lot of people for busses, and militaries like Russia have indeed been bringing in civilian vehicles for use in this conflict.

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They may use them for troop transport outside of conflict zones but they're not moving troops around in-theater in these busses. There are numerous videos of Russians loading civilians up and bussing them out.

Your argument that the military's use of civilian transport under certain circumstances negates their willingness or ability to transport civilians is nonsensical.

And yes. It is a hell of a lot of people. But it's also been done time and again by Russia, historically.

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That is definitely true, 100,000 or people vanished virtually overnight from the village next to Chernobyl. But our satellites saw that.

But I was thinking about the small town or village in Russia that sees 50-60 Ukrainians, including children, just dumped there. Surely they would have questions about what happened? Or are Russians so far gone that they would shrug when told the Ukrainians were kidnapped?

agent-maroon said:

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Let's say you can cram 150 people on a bus. 500K would mean over 3000 round trips and in an environment where fuel is precious and needed on the battlefield. 250 people per bus is probably not even a possibility and that would still mean 2500 round trips.

Math here suggests that the logistics are simply not possible

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You only have to get them into Russia, to intermediate concentration camps. Not to their ultimate destination.

500,000 people
A large single deck bus can hold up to 120 people
6 weeks

500,000/120= 4,166 bus trips total
Divided by 6 weeks equals 694 bus trips a week.
7 days a week equals 99 bus trips per day.

99 large busses per day is all it takes.

If you're only bussing people into intermediate camps inside Russia and then dispersing them further into the country via many other routes over a period of time then this is absolutely realistic.

Russian fuel issues haven't had anything to do with lack of fuel in controlled areas. It's been getting that fuel to forward operational areas for military use. Overall access to fuel in Russia is not a problem.

aggiehawg said:

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Touchless said:

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aggiehawg said:

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That's the booster that separates from the war head before impact.

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Interesting. How far before impact do they generally separate?

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Don't really know my guess would be when final acquisition programming tells it the warhead will make it the rest of the way. Not sure how the targeting systems work, well on anything but certainly not on Russian vintage missiles.

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This says the missile doesn't separate in flight and actually maneuvers at the end game to achieve a 90 degree angle of impact

https://en.missilery.info/missile/tochka

If they're invisible buses, maybe. Like a previous poster pointed out you would have to think that the satellites would have seen at least some of them. Or maybe they did and it's not being made public for some reason.

aggiehawg said:

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Rossticus said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Rossticus said:

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Ulysses90 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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I don't know why I never thought about this, before the war Russia did not have enough citizens to keep up with economic production and would collapse within a generation or two. Well if you steal over a half million citizens you may have just saved your country in the long term. Sneaky *******s

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I have a hard time believing the number is that high. Making a half million people disappear even in a country as big as Russia would only work if they are all shipped o Gulags and Labor Camps.

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Another point: how would Russia have the logistics to ship over 500k people into their country, but not the logistics to feed and supply their army, among other things?

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I share your skepticism. Kidnapping 500k people is a huge logistical task and I would venture to say that based on historical precedent from the Nazis it requires trains. If the Russians had enough trucks, civilian or otherwise, to transport 500k captives they would be using those to support their Army.

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They're using civilian busses to move them out of Ukraine. Militaries don't use civilian busses for troop transport.

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That's still a hell of a lot of people for busses, and militaries like Russia have indeed been bringing in civilian vehicles for use in this conflict.

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They may use them for troop transport outside of conflict zones but they're not moving troops around in-theater in these busses. There are numerous videos of Russians loading civilians up and bussing them out.

Your argument that the military's use of civilian transport under certain circumstances negates their willingness or ability to transport civilians is nonsensical.

And yes. It is a hell of a lot of people. But it's also been done time and again by Russia, historically.

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That is definitely true, 100,000 or people vanished virtually overnight from the village next to Chernobyl. But our satellites saw that.

But I was thinking about the small town or village in Russia that sees 50-60 Ukrainians, including children, just dumped there. Surely they would have questions about what happened? Or are Russians so far gone that they would shrug when told the Ukrainians were kidnapped?

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Second hand reports (ie families of a few people who have been contacted or occasional Russians reporting what they've seen to family/friends OOC) are that in many cases they're being dropped in the remote isht holes that are already stressed and resource depleted (minimal information infrastructure and observability).

The townspeople don't care about anything other than the additional stress it puts on their already dead town. They're not asking questions other than:

"Why should we suffer to accommodate these 'Nazis'?"

agent-maroon said:

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If they're invisible buses, maybe. Like a previous poster pointed out you would have to think that the satellites would have seen at least some of them. Or maybe they did and it's not being made public for some reason.

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This isn't a movie. This isn't reality TV. You're not going to get 100% real time public intelligence availability and visibility on everything (for really obvious reasons). To expect that is wholly unrealistic and the lack of it is certainly not a counterpoint to other evidence that's available.

Quote:

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Control system - autonomous, inertial, with on-board digital computer complex. The missile is controlled on the entire trajectory, which ensures high hit accuracy. When approaching the target for more efficient use of the BC explosion energy the missile performs a maneuver (turning the angle of pitch), which provides an angle of meeting the charge to the target close to 90 . For the same purpose, the axis of charge of the 9H123F fragmentation-phase BC is deployed downwards against the axis of the hull of the head unit at a certain angle. In order to achieve the maximum area of impact, the 9H123F is exploded by air at a height of 20 meters.

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Military Greek to me. Translation? I'm reading "fragmentation" as separation? "BC" is the warhead, correct?

Confused, sorry.

It says the whole missile flies to the target. That implies that large sections found are failed or shot down

BQ78 said:

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They can't work on jet engines?

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Sure along with that newfangled transmission along with parts and specialized tooling. And dont forget about the fire control system. The ukes dont have the time, tooling or man power to maintain a completely different tech on a fluid battlefield.

Get them what they know and are tooled to work on and maintain. Lots of T-72's and T-64's around. Probably easier to up-gun those than send a bunch of M1A1s

GAC06 said:

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It says the whole missile flies to the target. That implies that large sections found are failed or shot down

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Now I am really confused.

The picture with the words about kids painted on it was away from the train station, which was the actual impact location. Why?

ttu_85 said:

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BQ78 said:

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They can't work on jet engines?

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Sure along with that newfangled transmission along with parts and specialized tooling. And dont forget about the fire control system. The ukes dont have the time, tooling or man power to maintain a completely different tech on a fluid battlefield.

Get them what they know and are tooled to work on and maintain. Lots of T-72's and T-64's around. Probably easier to up-gun those than send of a bunch of M1A1s

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Yep. I can fix the hell out of a 1971 Chevy small block. You give me a 2007 Corvette and I'm useless. Both internal combustion engines but nowhere near the same.

aggiehawg said:

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GAC06 said:

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It says the whole missile flies to the target. That implies that large sections found are failed or shot down

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Now I am really confused.

The picture with the words about kids painted on it was away from the train station, which was the actual impact location. Why?

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I'm guessing it was either intercepted or failed.

Here's another example Ukraine is claiming was shot down.

Another Russian Tochka-U missile launched from Belarus was shot down in Chernihiv Oblast on 8 April

After Russia's missile strike on Kramatorsk that killed dozens of civilians, Putin's spokesman claimed that the 🇷🇺military doesn't use Tochka-U missiles.https://t.co/aIWcJV7Twx pic.twitter.com/uz8j80oRLn

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) April 8, 2022

Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.

agent-maroon said:

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Rossticus said:

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agent-maroon said:

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If they're invisible buses, maybe. Like a previous poster pointed out you would have to think that the satellites would have seen at least some of them. Or maybe they did and it's not being made public for some reason.

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This isn't a movie. This isn't reality TV. You're not going to get 100% real time public intelligence availability and visibility on everything (for really obvious reasons). To expect that is wholly unrealistic and the lack of it is certainly not a counterpoint to other evidence that's available.

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Not trying to be confrontational with you, but I'm not clear on the point you're making with your post. Are you saying that it's not being made public? I can totally see that as being the case. Or are you saying that the satellites we have trained on every travel pathway into and out of Russia/Ukraine wouldn't have noticed near 100 bus trips a day in a war zone for weeks going on months? With respect - and I really mean that - I really don't see how that would be anything less than a massive intelligence failure when they're counting every military vehicle they can to gain perspective on battlefield capabilities.

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Apologies if my post came across that way. Wasn't the intent. No, I do not anticipate the US government making their (classified) satellite Intel data public. The satellite date we have gotten is from private satellites and there are limitations based on when/where the passes occur. Additionally, the satellite data that we've seen is because either the entity with control of those satellites has released it for free or someone who paid for that data then made it public.

We have to work with what we can get from open sources, which can be inconsistent. I'd love for us (the public) to have more at our fingertips but we should still remember that we have more at our disposal, in this moment, than ever before in history.

Patience is a virtue and I'm certain that there are private, non-governmental entities who're also collecting data on this and other Russian activities. Immediately releasing this to the public in real-time is counterproductive to those efforts and the long term goals associated with them.

aggiehawg said:

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Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.

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Part of info missing is likely that 2 rockets were fired. One failed or was taken out and the other impacted as targeted.

The fact that they have to send two rockets to hit a civilian target is noteworthy. Their guided missile technology is crap...

JFABNRGR said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.

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Part of info missing is likely that 2 rockets were fired. One failed or was taken out and the other impacted as targeted.

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Then where are the parts of the warhead? Wouldn't there be some evidence? A crater? Other parts somewhere?

That 500k number the Ukes are throwing out there could be a guess based on the number of people unaccounted for, many of whom could be dead, hiding, or scattered to the winds sometime during the fighting.

The Russian parliament is preparing a procedure for the simplified adoption of Ukrainian children deported to Russia during the war.

The office of the Ukrainian Ombudswoman for children's rights is working to prevent such a crime

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) April 8, 2022

aggiehawg said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.

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Part of info missing is likely that 2 rockets were fired. One failed or was taken out and the other impacted as targeted.

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Then where are the parts of the warhead? Wouldn't there be some evidence? A crater? Other parts somewhere?

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I believe it depends on the type and timing of explosion. You likely only get a crater if it penetrates the ground and then explodes. If it explodes at the ground, without penetrating then no crater. You can look at Russia's rocket attacks on Ukrainian airfields as an example of that.

It's like any other explosive. Explode a firecracker in your open hand and it explodes outward and upward while leaving your hand relatively unscathed. Wrap your hand around said firecracker (ie penetration into and being surrounded by material) and the firecracker craters your hand, blowing it apart.

bonfarr said:

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That 500k number the Ukes are throwing out there could be a guess based on the number of people unaccounted for, many of whom could be dead, hiding, or scattered to the winds sometime during the fighting.

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The 500k number is based on their observations and Russian claims. Russia has stated publicly that they've deported 600k civilians to Russia.

Amazing. Even when the situation is awash with evil, the rus can still come up with something so horrible that it stands out from the rest of the atrocities.

Freaking baby snatchers. Probably just a cover for making them live a life of slave labor. Despicable...

aggiehawg said:

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JFABNRGR said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Thanks. Really hard to follow and understand everything.

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Part of info missing is likely that 2 rockets were fired. One failed or was taken out and the other impacted as targeted.

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Then where are the parts of the warhead? Wouldn't there be some evidence? A crater? Other parts somewhere?

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"SS-21 / Tochka-U's basic 9N123F conventional warhead is 120kg of high explosives and is designed for fragmentation [shrapnel]. But it can also carry 9N123 cluster munitions, which Russia has used repeatedly in the war, even against hospital facilities."

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-banned-cluster-munion-used-syria

REALLY good video that deals with a lot of the misinformation and false claims by both sides. Their claimed successes, "the feint", denazification, and more. Highly recommend watching it.

British manufacturing at its best: Britain's leading emergency vehicle manufacturer @VenariUK has started transporting ambulances (built on a not-for-profit basis at its Yorkshire factories) to Ukraine to support medics working on the frontline. #Ukraine🇺🇦 #UKmfg🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/Xnmd2LoOgq

— Jefferson (@Jefferson_MFG) April 7, 2022

agent-maroon said:

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Amazing. Even when the situation is awash with evil, the rus can still come up with something so horrible that it stands out from the rest of the atrocities.

Freaking baby stealers. Probably just a cover for making them live a life of slave labor. Despicable.

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Tactically brilliant and yes sinister. In 18 years those babies will be of age to participate in another "Special Operation" against Ukraine.

Some Ukrainians forcibly deported into Russia reportedly managing to escape to Estonia.

@PeterCorless @walterlekh @Bekartsmekart https://t.co/Prjt4iUS04

— Artoir (@ItsArtoir) April 6, 2022

Haven't seen one of these in a bit. Not a general, but I'll take it!

Colonel Alexander Bespalov, the commander of the 59th Guards Tank Regiment (part of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division), was killed in Ukraine.https://t.co/eKtTippOWrhttps://t.co/UgcCe7ZTKQ pic.twitter.com/Dtfm3Mglxn

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 8, 2022

#Ukraine: An Azov fighter hitting a Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle with a RPO-A Shmel rocket-assisted flamethrower at close range in #Mariupol. The BMP appears to be damaged and crew, as claimed, were killed.

This is an unusual weapon choice, however it works, as seen. pic.twitter.com/SUwvFN267o

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 8, 2022

In the end he yells 'it has been destroyed'

One of the direct Russian media reports of Ukrainians arriving in specific Russian locations. Translation (from Russian):

"Refugees arrived in our region, a total of 468 people, including 84 children. On behalf of Governor Sergei Sitnikov, a train with refugees was met in Rostov, Yaroslavl region, so that, without wasting time, to assess the condition of people even before the arrival of the train in Kostroma. Temporary accommodation facilities were organized to receive citizens."

"Elena Mikhailovna Kiselyova, social worker: "We learned from the news that refugees from Ukraine came to us in the Kostroma region: families with children, the elderly. They suffered great trials, they were left without a roof over their heads, without means of subsistence, many lost friends and relatives."

"We must help the whole world refugees, because the Russian people are the kindest and fairest. In our city, we turned to the company "Variant - C", humanitarian aid is collected there. We also learned that refugees arrived in Chistye Bory in "Forest Fairy Tale", so we want to collect and send humanitarian aid right there."

http://buyskaipravda.ru/2022/04/05/v-kostromskuyu-oblast-pribyli-bezhency/

#Russia #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: Interesting GoPro footage of clashes between #Russian Forces and #Ukrainian Troops, recorded by UA combatants.

UA combatants apparently used a suppressed UKROP UAR-10 sniper rifle, RPC Fort-223 carbine, AK-74, 9M113 Konkurs ATGM and FGM-148 #Javelin ATGMs. pic.twitter.com/YUGXvrKQl1

— War Noir (@war_noir) April 9, 2022

Ukes fire Javelin, Russian snipers respond. Slava Ukraini