MaroonStain said:

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I wouldn't be surprised if Putin dropped a nuke on Maripol.

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Remember that Mariupol's position on the Sea of Azov is important strategically. If Putin decides to nuke Mariupol, he'd be rendering an important port unusable. Not to say he hasn't made stupid strategic decisions before, but still...

GAC06 said:

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Just saying that the cult of personality that the A-10 benefits from spills over to the ****tier Russian attempt at an A-10. Except they don't have the avionics, targeting pods, defensive countermeasures, precision ordnance or close air support doctrine or communications capability. Instead they have a small slow jet is basically fighting like it's 1960

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It's a perfect Russian adaption to it. They can't make an A-10. They don't have the tech or manufacturing base to do it. So yes, it can't compete in every category. (but also more than you allude to) But it is also considerably cheaper and easier to produce, with survivability that beats just about everything but an A10. It is also much faster than an A10. And most of the world is still fighting like it is 1960. It is reliable, packs a huge punch and has killed a lot of things over the years. Just as much and maybe more than the A10 has.

Don't let yourself steer away from the cult of personality of the A10 so much make you discredit the Frogfoot out of hand. Make no mistake, our A10s sent out in singles would also get eaten alive right now in Ukraine. MANPADS may be edging out dedicated ground attack planes more than in the past, but they are still going to be a thing for some time moving forward. A Frogfoot in capable hands on missions it is designed for? Yeah, very capable. Agree to disagree.

Green2Maroon said:

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This is not working out the way Putin had in mind. The Russian forces are pretty incompetent and poorly organized and supplied. The Ukrainian forces are better and far more competent than he or anyone else expected.

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I don't think anyone can argue that at this point.

Russia got exposed on so many levels. I truly believe the only thing keeping them in this fight right now, is their nukes. (And their lack of treating it as a real war of course) Without them, I am pretty sure "intervention" would have occurred already.

A post earlier expanded on the manpower capabilities. What we were accused of in Vietnam, Russia also appears to be doing here. Relying on the poorly educated and financially broke underhive of their minority groups to flesh out their ranks in huge numbers. You are going to have a higher rate of poor soldiering from this, history has proven consistently. Mixed with their awful logistics and terrible upkeep.....

They can and still may "win" this thing but it is going to be long and brutal if they keep trying for a pure military victory.

My disagreement was with your "VERY capable" endorsement. It shoots unguided rockets and drops unguided bombs. It's slow and unsophisticated. Russians and probably Ukrainians lack the training and doctrine to truly do close air support like we do. It's survivability is overrated as all jets are delicate and likely to be destroyed by even one MANPADS

GAC06 said:

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Slow, vulnerable, incapable of finding targets beyond seeing them or preplanned attacks, and it shows. They're getting shot down a lot and aren't very lethal.

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I'd also be curious as to the state of Russian close air support tactics and coordination. Do they have, and regularly practice with what we would (used to?) call JTAC's? I would think that with a highly mobile, light infantry based (relatively speaking) adversary, currency in such things would be a necessity, no?

GAC06 said:

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My disagreement was with your "VERY capable" endorsement. It shoots unguided rockets and drops unguided bombs. It's slow and unsophisticated. Russians and probably Ukrainians lack the training and doctrine to truly do close air support like we do. It's survivability is overrated as all jets are delicate and likely to be destroyed by even one MANPADS

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i agree with your sentiment. Interestingly, there is at least one video of a Russian Frogfoot surviving a MANPADS attack (first few days, it was flying over a lake and then continued on it's rocket attack).

Of course, it could also be because the SAM was an SA-7 :-)

Found it, it's actually pretty cool
The Su-25 is more survivable than other Russian junk. There were a lot of modifications made as a result of the Afghan war. There have been a number of electronic upgrades proposed, but the Russians haven't been able to afford most of them

Ukraine does have over 800 tanks. I hope they understand how best to utilize them in this. May be pretty important to keep the supply lines to Kyiv open, for one thing.

GAC06 said:

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My disagreement was with your "VERY capable" endorsement. It shoots unguided rockets and drops unguided bombs. It's slow and unsophisticated. Russians and probably Ukrainians lack the training and doctrine to truly do close air support like we do. It's survivability is overrated as all jets are delicate and likely to be destroyed by even one MANPADS

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Ummm. It can and does operate everything guided that Russia produces. Including several versions of their guided ground attack and anti air missiles along with laser/tv guided bombs.

Of course it is slow, it is a dedicated attack plane. Loiter time is more valued than speed, hands down. It also has a top speed of over 150 more than our A10. Unsophisticated? Compared to what? Our stuff? Ok, sure. so is 98% of the world. And you don't need 5th gens to attack ground troops. Personally, I would actually rather have a bunch more "less-capable" craft than a few cutting edge scalpels in wars of this scale. Less things to break, easier to replace, easier to train.

Survivability on these things is much higher than you say. A lot of these things have eaten SAMs and returned alive to base ever since Afghanistan. There are several examples just from this fight alone. They are armored

I love discussions on these types of things but you are just flat out wrong on several points. Where are you getting your information from?

Hard agree on your assertion about the level of training though. Which if anything points TOWARDS something like an SU-25. The thing by all accounts is easy to train up on.

ETA: We can actually take this to the other thread if ya want. Probably not in the true spirit of this one. Or just call it an agree to disagree. Would prefer that actually honestly.

Since Russia is not willing to give up Maripol, it would seem that WW3 is about to begin according to how own words this morning.

Am I missing something?

I'm perfectly willing to defer to you in regards to SMAW's or Javelins or the like. Why do you think Su-25's are anything other than Soviet garbage?

I would feel very vulnerable in Ukraine flying an AV-8B. But we'd be very lethal first

They also have 193 of them. Ukes have shot down maybe 10? Doesn't matter if they lose a few dozen. It's a cheap unsophisticated bomb truck, artillery in the sky. Several of the Su-25 have survived manpad shots and battle damage and made it back to base.

Here's what we're providing in assistance by way of recent appropriations.

#Ukraine appropriations. Analysis of the recently-passed budget. Prepared for @DHOUorghttps://t.co/wDHBtPxL5A

— Peter Corless 🌎☮ 💛💉💉+💉🇺🇸🇮🇪🇺🇦🌻 (@PeterCorless) March 21, 2022

"Made it back to base" is good because the pilot lived. The plane won't be useful again in this conflict.

"Bomb truck" is about as useful as rockets and shells. But they already have that don't they

What are the odds Putin could be forced into accepting just a victory at Mariupol and "achieving" his BS deNazification goal as a reason to exit the war? I doubt it's likely, but if he wants an off ramp to this insanity, that might be the victory he can write home about.

He still needs a bullet in the head, but anything to stop this madness is worth looking at, no matter how unlikely.

ETA: This does not mean I want Mariupol to fall. It's a hypothetical assuming an unfortunate Russian victory there.

Green2Maroon said:

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Ukraine does have over 800 tanks. I hope they understand how best to utilize them in this. May be pretty important to keep the supply lines to Kyiv open, for one thing.

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From what i am seeing, it appears that the era of the armored vehicle is over. They appear to be obsoleted by man portable missiles now. Hell close air aupport may not be far behind.

Id be advancing those darpa/heinlein armored infantry suits now and forget about tanks. Theyre only useful against civilians now it seems.

Video of the Black Sea Fleet’s Orsk Project 1171 large landing ship offloading equipment in Berdyansk. https://t.co/qPAM5brcLC pic.twitter.com/lKaywXLK0B

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 21, 2022

The statement made by the Russians on the 19th. pic.twitter.com/Oo6VLqayDT

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 21, 2022

cbr said:

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Green2Maroon said:

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Ukraine does have over 800 tanks. I hope they understand how best to utilize them in this. May be pretty important to keep the supply lines to Kyiv open, for one thing.

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From what i am seeing, it appears that the era of the armored vehicle is over. They appear to be obsoleted by man portable missiles now. Hell close air aupport may not be far behind.

Id be advancing those darpa/heinlein armored infantry suits now and forget about tanks. Theyre only useful against civilians now it seems.

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Indeed it seems like tanks are of limited usefulness in this war. Kinda sucks considering the resources that went into building those.

Rossticus said:

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Who wants goosebumps? Here ya go.

❗❗❗Звернення до білоруського народу жінок України!@StratCom_AFU https://t.co/mppcF0V2T9 pic.twitter.com/z76dsaLt2K

— 🇺🇦Armed Forces (@ArmedForcesUkr) March 20, 2022

Ukrainian strength and resolve remind me of this speech…

Ronald Reagan : "we must fight!" pic.twitter.com/uM1cP6gg03

— 𝕋𝕙𝕖 𝔻𝕦𝕜𝕖 (@thedukeoriginal) March 20, 2022

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that western prong of the kyiv thrust seems to be in peril of encirclement or being forced to withdraw, if this map (and other accounts) are accurate

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) March 21, 2022

Mariupol is being ground to dust. But Ukrainian troops are still fighting and every Russian assault has resulted in heavy Russian casualties. https://t.co/CUD4YVWyfE

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) March 21, 2022

Possible target of last night's missile strike.

#Ukraine: The "Sport Life" gym outside the Retroville shopping mall in #Kyiv was hit by a RF missile.

In an pic taken beforehand, 4+ UA mil vehicles can be seen underneath; these may be MRL (BM-27/21) or supply trucks but unfortunately resolution is too bad to be totally sure. pic.twitter.com/oW73FpuGjj

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 21, 2022

Countries Providing Military Aid to Ukraine pic.twitter.com/YoVDF7NLqK

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 21, 2022

Rossticus said:

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Mariupol is being ground to dust. But Ukrainian troops are still fighting and every Russian assault has resulted in heavy Russian casualties. https://t.co/CUD4YVWyfE

— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) March 21, 2022

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Do we have stats from the Mariupol siege?

Quote:

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Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry (Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles flying)

The grouping of troops of the Donetsk People's Republic, developing an offensive, took full control of Stepnoye and is pursuing the retreating units of the 53rd separate mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Up to 25 personnel, 2 tanks, 2 infantry fighting vehicles and 5 all-terrain vehicles were destroyed.
In Novoselovka Vtoraya direction, the units of the Donetsk Republic have advanced to a depth of 3 kilometers, crossed the Kamenka Verkhnetoretskoye road, and are fighting with the 1st airborne battalion of the 25th separate airborne brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
During the night, most of Verkhnetoretskoye settlement was taken under control, where battles are being fought with the 2nd battalion of the same brigade. In total, up to 40 personnel, 5 armored personnel carriers and 4 all-terrain vehicles were destroyed there. Offensive actions continue.
In the evening of March 19 and in the morning of March 20, high-precision long-range weapons attacked Ukraine's military infrastructure.
From the waters of the Black Sea, Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles destroyed workshops for repairing Ukrainian armored vehicles damaged in combat at the Nezhinsky repair plant.

A large fuel storage base of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Konstantinovka in Nikolaev region was destroyed by Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles from the waters of the Caspian Sea, as well as by Kinzhal aviation missile systems with hypersonic aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Crimea territory. This is the main base for supply Ukrainian armored vehicles with fuel in combat areas in the south of Ukraine.

High-precision air-launched missiles struck the training centre of the Ukrainian special operations forces near Ovruch settlement of Zhytomir region, where foreign mercenaries who arrived in Ukraine were based. More than 100 special operations forces servicemen and mercenaries were killed.

During the night, operational-tactical and army aviation hit 62 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 3 command posts, 1 multiple launch rocket system, 2 missile and artillery weapons depots and 1 fuel depot, as well as 52 areas of military equipment concentration.

Russian air defence means shot down in the air: 1 Mi-8 helicopter of the Ukrainian Air Force near Kohannoye, 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2 near Shibennoye, as well as 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile near Chistovodovka north of Izyum.

Russian artillery destroyed 6 Ukrainian Bukovel mobile electronic warfare systems.

In total, 207 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,467 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 148 multiple launch rocket systems, 573 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 1,262 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.

http://thesaker.is/briefing-by-russian-defence-ministry-kalibr-sea-based-cruise-missiles-flying/

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cbr said:

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Green2Maroon said:

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Ukraine does have over 800 tanks. I hope they understand how best to utilize them in this. May be pretty important to keep the supply lines to Kyiv open, for one thing.

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From what i am seeing, it appears that the era of the armored vehicle is over. They appear to be obsoleted by man portable missiles now. Hell close air aupport may not be far behind.

Id be advancing those darpa/heinlein armored infantry suits now and forget about tanks. Theyre only useful against civilians now it seems.

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No. Armor will catch up. We'll likely see more scuff countermeasures to defeat ATGM's, like electronic countermeasures to defeat their seeker heads or lasers or something to actively shoot them down.

That sucks russians are getting better each day.