***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,074,435 Views | 48753 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by 74OA
ATX_AG_08
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HTownAg98
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Rossticus said:



Bold move Cotton. It would be a shame if he attempts to do that, and a small handful of people with incredible wealth and power decide to turn against him.
ATX_AG_08
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74OA
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Rossticus said:


Click to see full list.

LMCane
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AGHouston11 said:

If things are so bad how do three leaders announce they are visiting the president a day before and they ride a train to visit the President! I'm just trying to figure out how this works with a city completely surrounded by Russians.
Kyiv is NOT completely surrounded by Russians

there are Russian forces to the northeast of Kyiv, and to the Northwest of Kyiv.

to the direct north is a body of water

the south entrances are all open

It's Mariupol that is completely surrounded by Russian forces
Rossticus
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That's even better
JFABNRGR
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AG
I agree likely a mine, especially given the linear disturbance in the road at the point of explosion where the track touches down. The disturbance is shaped like a cue tip at this angle with one end cut off. The larger end almost centered in the road while the thinner linear going to our right tank left, which could easily be a triggering mechanism that has better chance to catch track, while the larger end in the middle is the bulk of the explosives. To our left the disturbance is more faint like where the dirt being dug out landed on the snow.

The most interesting part for me is the timing of the drone. Most mines are employ and forget, which make them nasty for use with civilians around now or later, but not only is the timing perfect so is framing of the target. I can only think whomever is running the drone also emplaced the mine and is likely very close.

I concur on exhaust with throttling up over the berm.

Of also interest at .25 speed under :01 in there is an explosion at 11:00 also in a ditch and smoke coming from left side of the road the column is on about where the snow on the road ends.

I also questioned why they didn't cover up with snow and can think that they did not have time and possibly knowing the direction of travel they would never see on the backside of the berm like that as this crew knows what they are doing and have done before.

In the video below this may be the very same mine used but on a lighter bottom armored tank.

deddog
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ATX_AG_08 said:

Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.

The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
LMCane
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ATX_AG_08 said:

Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.

Well to be accurate Mariupol has been taken by the Russkies and had a population of 470,000

which I think could be counted as a major city. Especially that it is a strategic linchpin along the Black Sea coast linking Crimea with the Donbas.
Rossticus
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HTownAg98 said:

Rossticus said:



Bold move Cotton. It would be a shame if he attempts to do that, and a small handful of people with incredible wealth and power decide to turn against him.


The problem is that, under Putin, this isn't a traditional oligarchy. Putin's power doesn't descend from the oligarchs. They didn't place him in power. Putin chose people who he knew prior to gaining power, installed them as yes-men, and made them obscenely rich. Their power and wealth descend from and are wholly attributable to Putin.

So, they're less likely to move against him than under the standard oligarchal structure.
Robk
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Released? somehow I think there were a lot Russians taken out in this "release"
Ag In Ok
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AG
When did Mariupol fall?
ABATTBQ11
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docb said:

Damn. We really need to do whatever it takes to get rid of Putin.


He needs the czar treatment.
ATX_AG_08
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Mariupol is surrounded, not taken. And reports are Russians get decimated every time they try to move in.

Which goes along with exactly what I'm saying. Russia is bogged down everywhere.
deddog
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ATX_AG_08 said:


Looks like that tank crew was lost, on it's own, no infantry

lost in a foreign land, condemned to die by their superiors, and by a maniacal despot.
That sucks for those soldiers and their family
ABATTBQ11
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deddog said:

ATX_AG_08 said:


Looks like that tank crew was lost, on it's own, no infantry

lost in a foreign land, condemned to die by their superiors, and by a maniacal despot.
That sucks for those soldiers and their family


They have a tank. It's not like they can't shoot their superiors.
Who?mikejones!
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Rossticus said:

There has been a definite uptick of people starting to discourage foreign fighters and further U.S. assistance via stories like this that conveniently manage to leave out details. Especially since Russia got themselves behind the 8 ball. Did the host press him or just let it go at a statement?

Shelling Russian civs instead of fighting the Russian army that's right there trying to kill them doesn't pass the smell test.


The host didn't press but didnt really accept the story either.

The guy kept saying to Google it. I did, the only story I found was from a very pro Russian website claiming the ukes shelled an area in the Donetsk region
Tramp96
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Robk said:



Released? somehow I think there were a lot Russians taken out in this "release"
Probably a lost-in-translation thing.

Released...freed...liberated...rescued.
aggrad02
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Ag In Ok said:

When did Mariupol fall?


It was the mayor of Melitopol not Mariupol.
LMCane
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Rossticus said:




so this is a great tactical thread discussion - that tweet can't be accurate.

the USA does not make or own S-300 batteries.

the USA is not landing aircraft in Ukraine

Hungary has refused to send equipment to Ukraine

so IF there are S-300 batteries that somehow made it into Ukraine, they had to be driven across the border of Poland or Slovakia

so how is it that "USA is delivering weapons they don't own from territory they don't have"?
JFABNRGR
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ATX_AG_08 said:


Wow nice attack. Lost a track. Crew trying to evac.

Watch warning the below reference it gets horrific.

I could not figure out what lands on the road at 1:21 until the end when you see a second tank was also blown up. The angle looks off at first from the direction of the second tank kill but its the shadow.

TRM
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Read the embedded tweet.
""NEW -- S-300 air defense systems have been sent into #Ukraine, by U.S. or #NATO allies -- per
@RepMcCaul, the top Republican in the House Foreign Affairs Committee."
74OA
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deddog said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.

The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
The Ukrainians are operating on the defensive using interior lines which make it easy to switch forces as needed and is very logistically economical.

In contrast, the three Russian main lines of advance are not mutually supporting, require ever-lengthening logistics tails and may be approaching their offensive culminating point, particularly in the northeast.

I'm hoping Ukraine has been deliberately husbanding enough offensive capacity waiting for the right moment for a major counterattack.

If they can break into the Russian rear in the northeast with sufficient force the Russians may not now have enough left to forestall a general retreat.
BlueSmoke
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74OA said:

deddog said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.

The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
The Ukrainians are operating on the defensive using interior lines which make it easy to switch forces as needed and is very logistically economical.

In contrast, the three Russian main lines of advance are not mutually supporting, require ever-lengthening logistics tails and may be approaching their offensive culminating point, particularly in the northeast.

I'm hoping Ukraine has been deliberately husbanding enough offensive capacity waiting for the right moment for a major counterattack in the north.

If they can break into the Russian rear in the northeast with sufficient force the Russians may not have enough left to forestall a general retreat.
Seems akin to what happened at Bastogne?
Nobody cares. Work Harder
Rossticus
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LMCane said:

Rossticus said:




so this is a great tactical thread discussion - that tweet can't be accurate.

the USA does not make or own S-300 batteries.

the USA is not landing aircraft in Ukraine

Hungary has refused to send equipment to Ukraine

so IF there are S-300 batteries that somehow made it into Ukraine, they had to be driven across the border of Poland or Slovakia

so how is it that "USA is delivering weapons they don't own from territory they don't have"?


I think it's just a journalist not being knowledgeable enough to know how to phrase it. The US facilitated these units being provided from the NATO countries that have them.
ATX_AG_08
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Rossticus
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74OA said:

deddog said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Russia doesn't have near enough troops to surround Kyiv. They're too bogged down on every single front. They haven't taken one major city to date, except maybe Kherson, where the ukes destroyed a number of helicopters yesterday in a counter offensive. Russia is getting dominated militarily, so all they can do at this point is continue to terrorize civilians bombing cities.
history is replete with examples of attackers attacking on too wide a front and failing.
The Blitzkrieg showed what works - have a powerful force attack on a few/one front and overwhelm the opposition. So did the Israeli air raids during the 6 day war.

The Russians seemed to be ignoring history, including their own.
The Ukrainians are operating on the defensive using interior lines which make it easy to switch forces as needed and is very logistically economical.

In contrast, the three Russian main lines of advance are not mutually supporting, require ever-lengthening logistics tails and may be approaching their offensive culminating point, particularly in the northeast.

I'm hoping Ukraine has been deliberately husbanding enough offensive capacity waiting for the right moment for a major counterattack.

If they can break into the Russian rear in the northeast with sufficient force the Russians may not have enough left to forestall a general retreat.


Ukes have a ton of armor and artillery that we haven't seen. I'm guessing their plan is exactly as you stated. Wait till the Russians are at their weakest and most vulnerable, then they mount a major offensive and steamroll them from west to east.
Not a Bot
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AG
Wrong thread sorry
74OA
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ATX_AG_08 said:


A nice update on Putin the supposed master strategist.
Not a Bot
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JFABNRGR
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74OA said:

ATX_AG_08 said:


A nice update on Putin the supposed master strategist.
If this is recent I don't see any truth to any peace in Ukraine from him. He appears to be the true hitler with the objective of a pure unified USSR state which includes taken back all their former states however long it takes. He also just separated himself with the oligarchs while also attempting to separate the mass people from them as well which probably isn't hard to do as only elites like other elites.
ATX_AG_08
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Not a Bot
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Building doesn't even look touched.
74OA
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Kidnapped mayor rescued.

Gilligan
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JFABNRGR said:

ATX_AG_08 said:


Wow nice attack. Lost a track. Crew trying to evac.

Watch warning the below reference it gets horrific.

I could not figure out what lands on the road at 1:21 until the end when you see a second tank was also blown up. The angle looks off at first from the direction of the second tank kill but its the shadow.


That looked like a "meat sack of potatoes" falling into the picture with a few pieces missing.
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