***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,819,810 Views | 48313 Replies | Last: 11 hrs ago by JFABNRGR
TXAggie2011
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The Soviet Union was already a 3rd world country that had been pillaged and looted by its ruling class before it fell…in fact, that's a big reason why it fell
Rossticus
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USAFAg
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baron_von_awesome said:

FriscoKid said:

You think it's impossible for there to be 40k-50k Russians that have been killed, wounded (and not fighting), surrendered, or went AWOL? I don't understand your pro-Russia ideas here. By all accounts they are taking heavy losses and you think the only thing that can be done is for Ukraine to surrender.

10K killed is not an unreasonable number. At 3x more wounded I don't think the 40-50k number is impossible.
Yes I think its too high, its higher than the US death rate in WWII per month.


Don't necessarily believe this Aslund person. Not sure where he gets his numbers from and no doubt the Ukrainians are inflating the numbers, but US deaths per month in WWII is not really a valid metric. We never came close to what the Russians regularly lose/lost when they fight.

As noted previously, this is full scale combat amongst near peer combatants and it's being fought with what appears to be early-mid WWII Eastern front tactics of mass versus maneuver, but using modern weapons. Exacerbating that it seems to be extremely road-bound making for predictable and easy targeting.

When you consider that during the second (of four) battle of Kharkov (Kharkiv) in 1942 where the Russians attempted to re-take the city, the Russian's lost about 100K dead and 200K wounded, captured or missing in just over a month. 10-30K dead, captured of missing in a month doesn't seem impossible in the least. Especially if any number of the troops were first-termers or conscripts.

12thFan/Websider Since 2003
BD88
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BD88
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JFABNRGR
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I regret not starting a daily change in equipment losses spreadsheet and categorize by types of loss: destroyed, damaged, abandoned, and captured. Generally its been about 100 pieces per day since I started looking at.

Russia - 1261, of which: destroyed: 536 EA or 43%, damaged: 18 EA or 1%, abandoned: 195 EA or 15%, captured: 512EA or 40%

Ukraine - 335, of which: destroyed: 129 EA 39% damaged: 5 EA or 1%, abandoned: 46EA or 14%, captured: 155 EA or 46%.

Right now UKR losses are 26% of Russians on military assets so definitely an accomplishment by UKR.

Interesting that the percentages of loss type are fairly similar.

I would sure like to know how much of the captured or abandoned equipment has been made operational by UKR and wonder if this site is trying to figure out if they need to add a new description line to accommodate.

I think its very safe to assume that if you take the 536 destroyed and assumed 3KIA avg per that at least 1,500 is a bare minimum of russians killed. Tank crews generally 3 but any of the infantry armor/trucks could easily have been carrying 11. If you were to break this out between JUST the INF vehicles at 7 and then all else at 3 you can easily double the KIA to 3000.

I would sure like to see these numbers grow on the red side QUICKLY!

Not a Bot
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I'm not sure that I am buying this. China, from a strategic standpoint, is far better off staying out of it and their relationship with Russia actually improves from their standpoint if Russia fails. Russia becomes a much weaker member of the partnership and China could more easily dictate terms to them.
LostInLA07
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Losing 40k troops seems high for a war not yet in its third week against a country that lacks the ability to control the skies or attack from the air. But, the Russians wouldn't be rounding up Syrians to deploy to Ukraine if things were going well and their troop losses were low.

If even close to true, the loss of 40k troops would at least make our "hands off and here are some rockets" approach to supporting Ukraine make a little bit of sense because there is absolutely no way Russia could sustain a conflict where they are losing troops that quickly. The entirety of the forces they initially committed would be gone by the end of the month at that rate, and I assume the effectiveness of whatever they have left would already be drastically reduced…so it's somewhat accurate to say we don't need to intervene any more than we have been.
txags92
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Here is where the rubber meets the road. If Russia helps the Russians with military aid, does the world start extending economic sanctions to China as well? They were all on board with lumping Belarus into the sanctions, but will they do the same to China?
LostInLA07
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Agree I don't see how that would be in China's best interest, beyond perhaps some token assistance with spare parts, more ****ty tires, or "humanitarian" aid like med kits and MREs for the Russians.

If China provides any meaningful assistance, I think Ukraine becomes a full fledged proxy war and NATO is going to begin providing air support.
Who?mikejones!
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BD88 said:






If true, Biden needs to start floating potential financial penalties for any nation that partners with russia.
CondensedFogAggie
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P.U.T.U said:

Rossticus said:

Turkey is crawfishing…


Turkey has been a NATO member in name only for a while now,

This is a nasty war, dumb bombs and lots of battles in the street.

If this means Turkey keeps sending more and more Bayraktar drones to the Ukraine, I could be on board with this.
Fitch
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Rossticus said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

W said:

BAP Enthusiast said:



I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.
very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles
On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.
Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.


The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?
That 1% involves resetting civilizations progression for the next few hundred years. We're trying to keep him contained long enough for the sanctions to drive changes from within. Keep him trying to win while someone takes him out of the picture (one way or another). He's not going to win this fast enough to stop Russia from internally collapsing. The only way to win this quickly would basically be to wipe Kyiv off the map and get surrender through mass-murder. Even if he does do that, will the people capitulate, or will it drive them to fight harder?


There's a scenario here too where Ukraine falls and Russia's economy is still left to wither on the vine, forcing internal change some time down the road.

Fastest way to get to there is for the Russian population en masse to learn of what is actually happening in Ukraine, which I have to think they will eventually.
ATX_AG_08
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Not a Bot
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Fox News reporting on their website, citing Ukrainian sources, that citizens are finally being allowed to leave Mariupol without being shot at.
ATX_AG_08
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BD88
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RebelE Infantry
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Captain Positivity said:

Fox News reporting on their website, citing Ukrainian sources, that citizens are finally being allowed to leave Mariupol without being shot at.


This corroborates Russians With Attitude's earlier tweet that 200 buses were being assembled for civilian evacuation. They reported that Russian forces were negotiating with Ukrainian regulars, but not Azov.
mickeyrig06sq3
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Fitch said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Rossticus said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

W said:

BAP Enthusiast said:



I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.
very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles
On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.
Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.


The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?
That 1% involves resetting civilizations progression for the next few hundred years. We're trying to keep him contained long enough for the sanctions to drive changes from within. Keep him trying to win while someone takes him out of the picture (one way or another). He's not going to win this fast enough to stop Russia from internally collapsing. The only way to win this quickly would basically be to wipe Kyiv off the map and get surrender through mass-murder. Even if he does do that, will the people capitulate, or will it drive them to fight harder?


There's a scenario here too where Ukraine falls and Russia's economy is still left to wither on the vine, forcing internal change some time down the road.

Fastest way to get to there is for the Russian population en masse to learn of what is actually happening in Ukraine, which I have to think they will eventually.
Ukraine falling and Russia withering is the insurgency part of the above scenarios. The Russian population doesn't have access to a variety of information, especially now that ISP's are starting to cut off Russia, and Russia is blocking sites like Facebook, Instagram, etc. If you control the information, you control the people. Outside of the younger generation, your 30+ demographic still drinks the Kremlin Kool-Aid. Putin has energized suppression mechanisms to the point that Stalin would be proud. He grew up in the KGB/FSB, it's his bread and butter.
txags92
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BD88 said:


Putin must be quaking in his house slippers. Will be more interested when the world demands that Russia surrender Putin to be tried by a war crimes tribunal as a condition of relaxing any sanctions against them.
Irish 2.0
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BD88
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Nice!
wangus12
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Man that news lady looks like a robot during it
CoppellAg93
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BD88 said:



I've seen quite a few of Benjamin Hall's updates from Ukraine the past couple weeks - hoping he is ok.
mickeyrig06sq3
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RebelE Infantry said:

Captain Positivity said:

Fox News reporting on their website, citing Ukrainian sources, that citizens are finally being allowed to leave Mariupol without being shot at.


This corroborates Russians With Attitude's earlier tweet that 200 buses were being assembled for civilian evacuation. They reported that Russian forces were negotiating with Ukrainian regulars, but not Azov.
The only way civilians get out is by busses to the Russian border where Russia has press ready to take photos of the helpless innocents running into the arms of their saviors from the evil Nazi regime.

It's funny that the previously negotiated truces that allowed civilians to go where they want resulted in attacks. Russia comes back and offers a new cease fire, but only with corridors towards Russia. Interesting Russia...if it's not you doing the attacking on civilians, why would your offer of a Russia only evacuation change the status of civilian safety?
No Spin Ag
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BD88 said:



Nice!


That young lady knew what was going to happen to her the second she did what she did, and she still did it.

God bless her and those in Russia who see what Putin is doing and trying to do what they can to be on the right side of this.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
black_ice
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No Spin Ag said:

BD88 said:



Nice!


That young lady knew what was going to happen to her the second she did what she did, and she still did it.

God bless her and those in Russia who see what Putin is doing and trying to do what they can to be on the right side of this.



God bless that brave woman!
JFABNRGR
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https://silentprofessionals.org/jobs/extraction-protective-agents-ukraine/

Interesting
Fitch
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mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Fitch said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Rossticus said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

W said:

BAP Enthusiast said:



I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.
very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles
On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.
Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.


The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?
That 1% involves resetting civilizations progression for the next few hundred years. We're trying to keep him contained long enough for the sanctions to drive changes from within. Keep him trying to win while someone takes him out of the picture (one way or another). He's not going to win this fast enough to stop Russia from internally collapsing. The only way to win this quickly would basically be to wipe Kyiv off the map and get surrender through mass-murder. Even if he does do that, will the people capitulate, or will it drive them to fight harder?


There's a scenario here too where Ukraine falls and Russia's economy is still left to wither on the vine, forcing internal change some time down the road.

Fastest way to get to there is for the Russian population en masse to learn of what is actually happening in Ukraine, which I have to think they will eventually.
Ukraine falling and Russia withering is the insurgency part of the above scenarios. The Russian population doesn't have access to a variety of information, especially now that ISP's are starting to cut off Russia, and Russia is blocking sites like Facebook, Instagram, etc. If you control the information, you control the people. Outside of the younger generation, your 30+ demographic still drinks the Kremlin Kool-Aid. Putin has energized suppression mechanisms to the point that Stalin would be proud. He grew up in the KGB/FSB, it's his bread and butter.
Agree with all your points, but the question remains how long can a state like that persist? Being firewalled off from the internet it one thing, but there are work arounds to that and eventually people start traveling again.

The only way to manage a complete information blackout is to commit to a North Korean style wall which is suicide for an economy. Also have to believe people would one day wake up and ask "why exactly is the entire world cutting us off for 'de-nazifying' a country we were invited into and oh by the way why do we still have 100,000 troops stationed there and no one is allowed to go visit anymore?"
mickeyrig06sq3
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Fitch said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Fitch said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

Rossticus said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

mickeyrig06sq3 said:

W said:

BAP Enthusiast said:



I have heard a number of these stories. Basically the Western volunteers who have been going there are completely unprepared for an enemy who has on par military equipment, air superiority, and significant and accurate long range artillery and missile capabilities.

They don't know how to handle the fact that in Ukraine, they are the goat herders and they can't just call in an air strike when they bite off more than they can chew.

I cannot fathom what these guys were thinking. Did they think this would be like Iraq and Afghanistan? Russia is a modern military and this is conventional warfare against combined arms.
very good points.

definitely not used to going up against heavy duty artillery, rockets, and missiles
On the flip side, some equipment has not been sent because the Ukrainians don't have training on certain platforms, and you can't teach it quick. However, if I've got some volunteers in country who know how to use it, that can change things. Not saying it will, but it does provide more options. Some countries have enough volunteers to have their own battalion.

Gets into a muddled grey area, but if get enough of the right people to form an allied air force squadron, give them some F-16s and associated accessories, it'd make things interesting.
Hard part is figuring out the point at which Putin goes from being an unstable megalomaniac to being a full on cornered animal with nothing to lose.


The point at which he's facing unavoidable loss. That can happen whether we help or not. So do you play to win or stab them in the back on the 1% chance he loses his marbles?
That 1% involves resetting civilizations progression for the next few hundred years. We're trying to keep him contained long enough for the sanctions to drive changes from within. Keep him trying to win while someone takes him out of the picture (one way or another). He's not going to win this fast enough to stop Russia from internally collapsing. The only way to win this quickly would basically be to wipe Kyiv off the map and get surrender through mass-murder. Even if he does do that, will the people capitulate, or will it drive them to fight harder?


There's a scenario here too where Ukraine falls and Russia's economy is still left to wither on the vine, forcing internal change some time down the road.

Fastest way to get to there is for the Russian population en masse to learn of what is actually happening in Ukraine, which I have to think they will eventually.
Ukraine falling and Russia withering is the insurgency part of the above scenarios. The Russian population doesn't have access to a variety of information, especially now that ISP's are starting to cut off Russia, and Russia is blocking sites like Facebook, Instagram, etc. If you control the information, you control the people. Outside of the younger generation, your 30+ demographic still drinks the Kremlin Kool-Aid. Putin has energized suppression mechanisms to the point that Stalin would be proud. He grew up in the KGB/FSB, it's his bread and butter.
Agree with all your points, but the question remains how long can a state like that persist? Being firewalled off from the internet it one thing, but there are work arounds to that and eventually people start traveling again.

The only way to manage a complete information blackout is to commit to a North Korean style wall which is suicide for an economy. Also have to believe people would one day wake up and ask "why exactly is the entire world cutting us off for 'de-nazifying' a country we were invited into and oh by the way why do we still have 100,000 troops stationed there and no one is allowed to go visit anymore?"
No different than what it was like pre-90s. Under those regimes, there's a few different types of people. Those who know, and benefit from it. Those who know, but keep their mouths shut out of fear. And finally, useful idiots. It's amazing how big that middle group will get after enough people disappear, you punish families for a single person's dissent, and you instill paranoia due to that third faction of people.

They won't reach NK level of suppression, the breaking point is well before then.
pagerman @ work
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RebelE Infantry said:

Rossticus said:

RebelE Infantry said:

PearlJammin said:

You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....


You are assuming they'll have a choice.


Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.


Maybe, maybe not. But Russia is continuing to tighten the "cauldron" around the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. Once Mariupol falls then they can redirect a whole lot of firepower and consolidate their lines. Militarily speaking, the situation for Ukraine is very grim and only growing more so. Their only hope continues to be dragging the western nations into the war, which would be sheer madness.

On top of all that, how much longer do you think any significant number of Americans will bear economic pain under the guise of "Putin bad"? A week? Two weeks? A month maybe?

The best plan for Ukraine is to sue for peace and do it quickly. Russia's bargaining position only grows stronger with each town and city they take.

ETA: this is not me taking a position one way or the other. The last thing I want to see is the total devastation that will follow if Ukraine is dragged into a prolonged insurgency. There must be a negotiated peace or Ukraine as anyone recognizes it will cease to exist.
There is absolutely zero reason for Ukraine to "sue for peace". None.

And "Ukraine as anyone recognizes it" already ceases to exist in your scenario.

The Ukrainians should make them have to take every square inch of Ukrainian territory until the Ukrainians can no longer put up any resistance. Think Berlin 1945. And that includes a prolonged, nasty insurgency that makes the Russian experience in Afghanistan look like a day at the beach.

Given their current resistance to the Russian invasion, there is no way they should accept any settlement that includes any ceding of territory from what the international community recognized as the borders of Ukraine prior to the Russian invasion, including the fictional "independent people's republics" and Crimea. The west and NATO should provide whatever direct and indirect support (short of direct military involvement) is required to assist the Ukrainians in doing everything they can to bleed Russia white, including keeping economic sanctions in place until at least one year past the point where every single Russian soldier, propped up puppet government and Putin lackey is gone from the entirety of Ukraine.

Any deal which cedes territory to Russia validates Putin's unprovoked and utterly unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine. And the international community recognizing any such agreement would be to endorse Putin's actions and justify further aggression against other of the former USSR's vassal states that his fever dreams tell him are really a part of "mother Russia", all evidence to the contrary.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
Who?mikejones!
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Irish 2.0
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IslanderAg04
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Irish 2.0 said:




But what crimes will Russia pay? **** shouldn't go unpunished.
VitruvianAg
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Agthatbuilds said:


Probably their stuff to begin with...
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