***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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McInnis 03
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6:07p, 3/14/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:09p, 3/14/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
There are ways to confirm that report.

48 hour rule.
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GarryowenAg
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6:37p, 3/14/22
AG
Haven't seen this posted yet.



Or this.

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agent-maroon
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 6:46p, 3/14/22
AG
GarryowenAg said:
Haven't seen this posted yet.



Or this.

I want to squeeze the rus as much as anybody but this seems like a really bad idea. They play enough games at sea without creating a red line in an international waterway. And doesn't China have more influence over the Panama Canal than anybody else?
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YouBet
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7:03p, 3/14/22
AG
Are we going to run naval blockades on either end of the Panama Canal? How is that going to work?

Of course, if we hadn't given it back in the first place this wouldn't be an issue.
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aunuwyn08
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7:04p, 3/14/22
AG
There is absolutely 0 way we're going to violate international law for a conflict we're not a party to. The reverberations of restricting access to critical sealanes for countries we're not in conflict with would be damning for our rhetorical, legal, strategic, military, and economic strategies in the South China Sea and in Taiwan/Japan.

This is pure fiction.
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rgag12
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 7:09p, 3/14/22
AG
GarryowenAg said:
Haven't seen this posted yet.



Or this.



I was beginning to think I shouldn't take that account seriously when ever someone posted it. This just confirms it
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TChaney
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7:10p, 3/14/22
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ATX_AG_08
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7:15p, 3/14/22
AG
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aezmvp
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In reply to rgag12 • 7:20p, 3/14/22
rgag12 said:
GarryowenAg said:
Haven't seen this posted yet.



Or this.



I was beginning to think I shouldn't take that account seriously when ever someone posted it. This just confirms it
It posts a lot of solid info but some stuff... grain of salt. A lot of really solid analysts follow him as well. But I would be VERY surprised at that. I think some Russian suppliers getting knock on sanctions or shipping companies losing access if they service Russia etc.
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LostInLA07
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7:23p, 3/14/22
AG
If we won't enforce a no fly zone in a conflict zone we certainly aren't going to seize (or sink) Russian ships in international or third country waters.
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BD88
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7:28p, 3/14/22
AG


Real sense of urgencyโ€ฆ
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BD88
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7:34p, 3/14/22
AG
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Agsuffering@bulaw
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7:46p, 3/14/22
Giving the Ukes migs would be more effective and less hostile than barring the Rus from key waterways. That osintel account has been good up until this.
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javajaws
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In reply to BD88 • 8:15p, 3/14/22
AG
BD88 said:
2 more weeks! Hang in there Ukraine!


Seriously though, I don't doubt this a whole lot. I think there's a good reason why Putin is trying to coerce every one of their allies and potential allies as well as their dog to help out. And it's not because he wants to share the W with anybody...
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BD88
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8:17p, 3/14/22
AG


Interestingโ€ฆ
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BD88
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8:19p, 3/14/22
AG
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BD88
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8:21p, 3/14/22
AG
Hadnt seen thisโ€ฆ



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ATX_AG_08
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8:27p, 3/14/22
AG
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Rossticus
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 9:06p, 3/14/22
ATX_AG_08 said:


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Twice an Aggie
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:15p, 3/14/22
AG
Huge information for the West to get on Russian missile tech.
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lb3
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 9:28p, 3/14/22
AG
ATX_AG_08 said:
Might not be worth a mig but I'm sure we would pay handsomely to get our hands on those.
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BD88
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9:35p, 3/14/22
AG
Truth or propagandaโ€ฆ


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Rossticus
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9:39p, 3/14/22
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PJYoung
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9:39p, 3/14/22
AG
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Rapier108
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In reply to lb3 • 9:42p, 3/14/22
lb3 said:
ATX_AG_08 said:
Might not be worth a mig but I'm sure we would pay handsomely to get our hands on those.
The newest Russian ICBMs are designed to deploy a dozen or up to 100 decoys to prevent any kind of interception so getting our hands on a few of those would be a goldmine.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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agent-maroon
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:43p, 3/14/22
AG
Chinese MRE's? Just the thing to boost morale of those cold, hungry troops.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:47p, 3/14/22
AG
I don't see the food as a logistical challenge but rather of fraud within the leadership ranks. If they have the food, they can get it there easier than asking China. They don't have it because it was sold. I can think of some regions where they have been recently that may have lined the pockets of the general class.
Enough about the food, what else are they asking for?
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PJYoung
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9:47p, 3/14/22
AG


Quote:
So, the Russian campaign Plan B after day 2 of the war has been 'creeping, multi-axis attrition'. It features lots more firepower, as well as destruction of smaller cities to set an example for Kyiv. Plan B also appeared to hope the Russian Air Force eventually turns up.

The latest Pentagon background brief notes Russian forces are now at about 90% strength of the original forces that invaded the country. This is optimistic. Even in most benign circumstances, losses to minor medical conditions, psych issues, etc eats away at forces.

Plan B has not worked out either. They have slowly gained ground, but at massive cost in personnel & equipment. At the same time, rear area security has suffered. This is obviously a trade off by the Russians so they can push forward as much combat power as possible.

But rear area security is a significant mission, and normally absorbs thousands of troops (infantry, air defence, cavalry, engineers, etc). Because the Russians have incompetently executed this mission, there have been constant ambushes against logistics convoys.

These ambushes on logistics convoys are another source of attrition in personnel, supplies and equipment to add to combat losses, and (if it is to be believed) combat refusals and desertions from Russian troops.

As open source, as well as UK and US military briefs, note, the Russian advances in the north, east and south are grinding to a standstill. They have been out fought by the Ukrainians and have not been able to logistically sustain advances on multiple fronts.

Summing up, Russia has not achieved its key military objectives in the north, east of south. It is conducting concurrent offensives in different, disconnected parts of Ukraine. It has committed all the military forces it had for Ukraine on these missions.

The Russian campaign, if it has not already, is about to culminate. US doctrine defines this as (for offense) "the point at which continuing the attack is no longer possible and the force must consider reverting to a defensive posture or attempting an operational pause."

So, the Russian high command has had to go back to drawing board (again) with their campaign design. As I noted in an earlier thread, it is through campaign design that commanders and their staffs' sequence and orchestrate tactical goals and actions.

Now we see the beginnings of Russia's 'Plan C' campaign in Ukraine. It is an even more ad hoc & brutal plan that their two previous attempts. This demonstrates Putin's frustration, the desperation of Russian military leaders & weakness in the Russian military position.

Plan C might be described as: hold current gains, long range firepower on cities, foreign fighters as cannon fodder, destroy as much infrastructure and manufacturing capacity as possible, expand the war to the west to deter foreign volunteers & aid providers.

This will permit the Russians to economise in personnel, trickle in replacements (and foreign mercenaries), while expending large amounts of cheap artillery and rockets in the hope they can terrorise Ukrainian civilians to force a political accommodation.

Two final issues. First, the number of personnel committed demonstrates that the Russians miscalculated & under resourced the war. Best case planning rarely works. Russia is also now probably suffering from the 'sunk cost' fallacy over its Ukraine operations.

As we have seen in other wars however, countries adapt to wartime crises & survive longer than logic dictates. Under Putin's leadership, the Russian's are likely to do this. And the Ukrainians will keep fighting conventionally or in an insurgency. It will be a long war.
Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan

This in turn, leads to the second issue. There may be a requirement for a military intervention if the west doesn't want a forever war on the doorstep of Europe. The US and NATO may have to start making some hard military choices that they have been delaying.

Provision of lethal aid is low cost in money and personnel. But to end this war, something more may be needed. Estimates (not fear) of Russian escalation should inform decisions, but not defer them.

Russian operations have been compromised by the size of their forces committed, and force attrition. This now has strategic consequences as their campaign culminates, and adapts to be firepower-centric, resulting in mass destruction and deaths of Ukrainian civilians. End.
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Rossticus
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In reply to BD88 • 9:49p, 3/14/22
BD88 said:
Truth or propagandaโ€ฆ




No benefit to Rubio in floating false info with zero strategic value which would, eventually, be easily disproven.
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depogs
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:58p, 3/14/22
AG
This to me is a better explanation of the importing of foreign and Chechnya's troops. It's part using them as cannon fodder but as non Slavs these troops are more likely to implement brutal tactics against civilians as compared to the Russian soldiersโ€ฆeven though as Rubio stated there's plenty of sadists in the Russian ranks m.
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.-Thomas Paine
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Rossticus
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In reply to depogs • 10:01p, 3/14/22
Absolutely. Brutality is a key aspect in how Russia has historically played the game and will be no different here.
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Rossticus
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10:05p, 3/14/22
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Rossticus
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10:06p, 3/14/22
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Rossticus
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10:08p, 3/14/22
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