Well then that would make sense then

What a great target

Video of Russians at the port of Berdyansk. They’ve also seized many Ukrainian patrol boats which appear to be in working order. pic.twitter.com/kOWHfviH29

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) March 14, 2022

At this point, I'm not sure why Putin would stop unless the Chinese really lean on him in the background. He'll control at least the eastern half of Ukraine in another month or so and he can then offer a cease fire with an east / west Ukraine. East Ukraine is controlled by Russia and Western Ukraine has its capital moved to Lviv. Putin would control the black sea ports, likely most of Ukraine's remaining military equipment, most major cities, and whatever the river is called that basically divides the country in half would be a nice strategic barrier for him. He'd also control all of the associated water rights and, therefore, farming in the country. If he takes Odessa, "West Ukraine" would be a landlocked.

Once he controls "Eastern Ukraine" I think he would evaluate that the remainder of "western ukraine" isn't worth additional losses. But I don't think he controls enough territory yet to stop on his own without substantial influence from the Chinese (and I guess India.)

In fact, I think that is his strategy if he agrees to evacuation routes to the west in the near term. He'll view that as simply clearing out "insurgents" who would cause trouble for him once he has to govern the territory he is trying to capture.

He may try that but I'd be surprised if Zelensky would consent to that unless he had iron clad security and economic assurances from Europe and the U.S. that would ensure Ukraine's future viability. Without that, there's nothing to stop Russia regrouping and retooling for 5-7 years and coming back at them again.

Without guarantees from the west he'll (Zelensky) probably try to drive them as far back as possible, if they're able to wait it out long enough to grind down Russia's western forces and then launch an effective counteroffensive. Lots of ifs in that though. A lot will depend on what type of support the West continues to offer, as well.

PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

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You are assuming they'll have a choice.

Rossticus said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

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You are assuming they'll have a choice.

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Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.

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I agree with this...

Russia isn't even close to being able to force a capitulation of Kyiv at this point...I wouldn't be willing to concede much of anything if I'm the Ukes...

Rossticus said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

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You are assuming they'll have a choice.

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Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.

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Maybe, maybe not. But Russia is continuing to tighten the "cauldron" around the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. Once Mariupol falls then they can redirect a whole lot of firepower and consolidate their lines. Militarily speaking, the situation for Ukraine is very grim and only growing more so. Their only hope continues to be dragging the western nations into the war, which would be sheer madness.

On top of all that, how much longer do you think any significant number of Americans will bear economic pain under the guise of "Putin bad"? A week? Two weeks? A month maybe?

The best plan for Ukraine is to sue for peace and do it quickly. Russia's bargaining position only grows stronger with each town and city they take.

ETA: this is not me taking a position one way or the other. The last thing I want to see is the total devastation that will follow if Ukraine is dragged into a prolonged insurgency. There must be a negotiated peace or Ukraine as anyone recognizes it will cease to exist.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Rossticus said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

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You are assuming they'll have a choice.

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Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.

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Maybe, maybe not. But Russia is continuing to tighten the "cauldron" around the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. Once Mariupol falls then they can redirect a whole lot of firepower and consolidate their lines. Militarily speaking, the situation for Ukraine is very grim and only growing more so. Their only hope continues to be dragging the western nations into the war, which would be sheer madness.

On top of all that, how much longer do you think any significant number of Americans will bear economic pain under the guise of "Putin bad"? A week? Two weeks? A month maybe?

The best plan for Ukraine is to sue for peace and do it quickly. Russia's bargaining position only grows stronger with each town and city they take.

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As long as the media puts the people like Olena Gnes on talking about their plight and show people killed like that Silicon Valley tech mom and Brent Renaud, they will draw attention of the American public who look at this with more emotion than logic imo. Regardless, what the west's desire is immaterial since economic pain was going to be coming anyways.

It's the Ukrainians fight and they're clearly willing to duke it out to last man standing.

Quote:

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This would be true if Russia had endless resources and a well motivated Army. They don't. Their resource situation is going to keep getting worse as the sanctions bite. They can't keep throwing missiles, planes, and heavy artillery (of which they have very limited stocks) into Ukraine without starting to risk making themselves too weak to fight back elsewhere. The longer this goes on, the more the truth will become evident to the Russian people. Putin is tightening down, but the public will keep learning more, and having them telling the troops that they are seen as invaders and war criminals by the world instead of liberators will weigh on them.

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Russia needs a pact with China because of its flank. Same reason Germany and Russia had a non-aggression pact for awhile before WWII. The question becomes if China has the stomach for military adventurism right now.

And at some point the Russians start running out of men. If the Ukes can have a sustained kill ratio of anywhere close to 1:1 throughout the spring, I would think the Russkies will find it difficult to maintain operations.

That's where the reason for their sudden ramp up in coal production becomes critical. Is it because of an anticipated break with Russia or because they're feeling opportunistic? I sincerely hope it's the former.

Waffledynamics said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Rossticus said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

---

You are assuming they'll have a choice.

---

Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.

---

Maybe, maybe not. But Russia is continuing to tighten the "cauldron" around the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas. Once Mariupol falls then they can redirect a whole lot of firepower and consolidate their lines. Militarily speaking, the situation for Ukraine is very grim and only growing more so. Their only hope continues to be dragging the western nations into the war, which would be sheer madness.

On top of all that, how much longer do you think any significant number of Americans will bear economic pain under the guise of "Putin bad"? A week? Two weeks? A month maybe?

The best plan for Ukraine is to sue for peace and do it quickly. Russia's bargaining position only grows stronger with each town and city they take.

ETA: this is not me taking a position one way or the other. The last thing I want to see is the total devastation that will follow if Ukraine is dragged into a prolonged insurgency. There must be a negotiated peace or Ukraine as anyone recognizes it will cease to exist.

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I don't understand this idea. Russia is not exactly an overwhelming force in this war right now, and they're not untouched on domestic affairs. Russia can't just hang out for as long as they want with few to no consequences.

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Zero reason for it. Russia is taking heavy losses.

txags92 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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This would be true if Russia had endless resources and a well motivated Army. They don't. Their resource situation is going to keep getting worse as the sanctions bite. They can't keep throwing missiles, planes, and heavy artillery (of which they have very limited stocks) into Ukraine without starting to risk making themselves too weak to fight back elsewhere. The longer this goes on, the more the truth will become evident to the Russian people. Putin is tightening down, but the public will keep learning more, and having them telling the troops that they are seen as invaders and war criminals by the world instead of liberators will weigh on them.

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Russia needs a pact with China because of its flank. Same reason Germany and Russia had a non-aggression pact for awhile before WWII. The question becomes if China has the stomach for military adventurism right now.

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Might be fun to see the Japanese decide the time is right to press their claims to the Sakhalin Islands...and maybe Georgia decides it wants its former territories back while Chechnya and Belarus decide to throw out the Putin puppet leadership they had forced on them? It doesn't have to be a superpower challenging them to put them into a bind as far as available troops and supplies.

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Good point. Arm them too, clandestinely of course. Maybe not Chechnya. Wait until Putin has used their forces in Ukraine and are weakened at home.

LostInLA07 said:

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At this point, I'm not sure why Putin would stop unless the Chinese really lean on him in the background. He'll control at least the eastern half of Ukraine in another month or so and he can then offer a cease fire with an east / west Ukraine. East Ukraine is controlled by Russia and Western Ukraine has its capital moved to Lviv. Putin would control the black sea ports, likely most of Ukraine's remaining military equipment, most major cities, and whatever the river is called that basically divides the country in half would be a nice strategic barrier for him. He'd also control all of the associated water rights and, therefore, farming in the country. If he takes Odessa, "West Ukraine" would be a landlocked.

Once he controls "Eastern Ukraine" I think he would evaluate that the remainder of "western ukraine" isn't worth additional losses. But I don't think he controls enough territory yet to stop on his own without substantial influence from the Chinese (and I guess India.)

In fact, I think that is his strategy if he agrees to evacuation routes to the west in the near term. He'll view that as simply clearing out "insurgents" who would cause trouble for him once he has to govern the territory he is trying to capture.

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This is my assessment as well.

His goal isn't total occupation. It's to take away the strategic eastern half of Ukraine that has the wheat, the oil, the fresh water and the warm water ports. He'll leave the other half as a place for all the dissidents to run to rather than make trouble there. It can join NATO tomorrow and he won't GAF since he has all the parts of the country that matter

I'm sure I've missed it but do we have updated, estimated death counts for both sides? I've never actually seen one for the Ukrainians. Thanks.

It has been pretty clear that the Russians would get decimated in a fight against us.

GAC06 said:

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It has been pretty clear that the Russians would get decimated in a fight against us.

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Russia won't fight a conventional war against us. They have more than enough nuclear weapons

Maroon Dawn said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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At this point, I'm not sure why Putin would stop unless the Chinese really lean on him in the background. He'll control at least the eastern half of Ukraine in another month or so and he can then offer a cease fire with an east / west Ukraine. East Ukraine is controlled by Russia and Western Ukraine has its capital moved to Lviv. Putin would control the black sea ports, likely most of Ukraine's remaining military equipment, most major cities, and whatever the river is called that basically divides the country in half would be a nice strategic barrier for him. He'd also control all of the associated water rights and, therefore, farming in the country. If he takes Odessa, "West Ukraine" would be a landlocked.

Once he controls "Eastern Ukraine" I think he would evaluate that the remainder of "western ukraine" isn't worth additional losses. But I don't think he controls enough territory yet to stop on his own without substantial influence from the Chinese (and I guess India.)

In fact, I think that is his strategy if he agrees to evacuation routes to the west in the near term. He'll view that as simply clearing out "insurgents" who would cause trouble for him once he has to govern the territory he is trying to capture.

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This is my assessment as well.

His goal isn't total occupation. It's to take away the strategic half of Ukraine that has the wheat, the oil, the fresh water and the warm water ports. He'll leave the other half as a place for all the dissidents to run to rather than make trouble there. It can join NATO tomorrow and he won't GAF since he has all the parts of the country that matter

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I said this early on but many got lost in the panic of "Putin is going to take Poland next!"

Many are ignoring the absolute dire resource and people needs that Russia has and taking Ukraine is their best option for plugging that hole at least partially. Russia has a massive demographic problem. Taking Ukraine helped fill that need on paper.

Where Putin seems to have miscalculated is the push back. Ideally and obviously, he wanted to absorb the natural resource and strategic advantages that Ukraine enjoys with much less fight, but here we are.

Maroon Dawn said:

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GAC06 said:

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It has been pretty clear that the Russians would get decimated in a fight against us.

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Russia won't fight a conventional war against us. They have more than enough nuclear weapons

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So, everyone dies? That is what they'd be willing to do.

Local officials now being made to disappear so that they can be replaced by friendlies.

2/ At least 4 local activists and journalists were reported kidnapped in Kherson and Zaporizhzhya obl. Well-known in Luhansk region UA activist, former captive of so called “LPR” Olexandr Kononov was shot in his wheel-chair at his house near Severodonetsk. #RussianTerror

— Maria Zolkina (@Mariia_Zolkina) March 14, 2022

Rossticus said:

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FireAg said:

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Rossticus said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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PearlJammin said:

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You are assuming Ukraine is ready to surrender all of that.....

---

You are assuming they'll have a choice.

---

Russia isn't even close to making them at this point.

---

I agree with this...

Russia isn't even close to being able to force a capitulation of Kyiv at this point...I wouldn't be willing to concede much of anything if I'm the Ukes...

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Thousands of people have given their lives fighting to maintain their freedom. To just give up is spitting on that sacrifice in the eyes of every patriotic Ukrainian. They feel the same way most of us would feel if this was happening to the USA.

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You can't really take emotions into account when evaluating these things. Taking past losses into account when evaluating the costs of future events is like a stock trader being unwilling to unload a losing position because it would be an insult to the money he previously lost.

There is no sense holding Enron all the way to the bottom and no sense for the living to die in honor of the dead.

I still think the final outcome has enough uncertainty for Zelenskiy to justify continuing the fight but the costs of victory (and defeat) are growing by the hour. Ambushes are great for bleeding Russia but they are not a winning strategy. At some point Ukraine has to show that they can actually take the offensive and evict the Russians.

Rossticus said:

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Iran headed to Moscow.

Spoke with Iranian FM Hossein Amirabdollahian ahead of his visit to Moscow tomorrow. Iran is against the war in Ukraine, supports a peaceful solution. I asked to convey my message in Moscow: Russia must stop bombing civilians, commit to the ceasefire, and withdraw from Ukraine.

— Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) March 14, 2022

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All Iran cares about is that Putin screwed with the Iranian Deal with the US, France and UK with Russia's new demands to be excused from sanctions when it comes to Iran.