jabberwalkie09 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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PUTIN DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 8, 2022

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This is equivalent to "you can't fire me because I quit!"

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One of the few bullets he has because they account for ~15% of global fertilizer. Not a good thing for food costs with sky high commodities currently

flakrat said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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PUTIN DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 8, 2022

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This is equivalent to "you can't fire me because I quit!"

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That include oil and gas?

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Id guess there is some sort of a carve out, otherwise Scholz is going to look dumb. But that's entirely possible.

Ulysses90 said:

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aezmvp said:

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TRM said:

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The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.

The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.

— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022

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Snow, sleet, freezing rain and 20 mph winds through Monday. Wth are they thinking? Man I hope they sink a bunch of these if they try something. I can't imagine trying to come ashore in 34-46 degree Fahrenheit water with freezing temps, high winds, precipitation. Also all your high tide (there isn't a big difference but still) aren't until around 10 AM.

Best bet would be Monday but why load up guys and leave them afloat for a week?

I don't get it.

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The US is the only nation in the world until about 10 years ago (Australia) that regularly deploys a landing force on amphibious ships and sails them around for extended periods of time. The Russians have never done this before in combat. It's brand new to them and they are, without a doubt, already encountering problems at D-1 that they have not planned for.

US amphibious ships aren't luxurious but they are a Disney Princess cruise ship compared to the way the Russians are probably crammed into those ships like underfed seasick match sticks. They will be exhausted, hungry, seasick, and disoriented when they hit the beach after spending several days Belo decks on th amphibs.

My bet is that they are going to try and do this like a simple offload of troops rather than the opposed landing that it will be. There has been no mention of the naval gunfire platforms that would provide prep fires on the defending emplacement. The shifting and lifting of prep fires is a BIG deal if you want to ensure that the landing force doesn't get fed into a buzz saw.

If you haven't practiced it, amphibious landings end up looking like a bunch of tourists trying to identify landmarks on the beach. Those assault echelons need really aggressive NCOs and Lieutenants to move the to their initial objective to get the Force Beachead Line established. There has been lititle evidence of such NCOs abd Lieutenants in the Russian Army thus far.

The Ukrainians have hard choices to makeabout whether they seek to disrupt the landing and make the Russians turn away or to let them first become decisively engaged and try to kill as many as possible and take them out of the action.

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Odessa is a now-fortified urban sprawl of 1M all the way down to the waterfront and an amphibious assault there will transition from beach landing to house-to-house fighting within a very few yards.

Having lost the element of surprise, failed to achieve air superiority and possessing little ability to quickly reinforce the landing force, Odessa is a very tough nut for the Russians to crack from the sea.

ODESSA

Just confirmed, hospital in Kharkiv oblast bombed by Russians. Not posting because photos are utter carnage.

BadMoonRisin said:

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Wonder what China thinks about this.

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I'm sure there is a carve-out for them.

Russia has very few friends right now, it seems. Spitting on China too does them no good in the economic war.

flakrat said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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PUTIN DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 8, 2022

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This is equivalent to "you can't fire me because I quit!"

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That include oil and gas?

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I'm skeptical; nitrogen fertilizers and military hardware (maybe not) will go to India, metals to Brazil, anything China wants at a discount, etc. if it were true, he is absolutely hunkering down. This has to piss China off, or at least it should. At some point this case study on invasion has to cease before even China is further harmed by the world economy.
Upside on this is low compared to the downside - what if India starts looking to the more stable Americans and EU for their military and advanced product needs.

Unless you thought it would be a cakewalk of an invasion. But then why pull up conscripts for that? Very confusing.

U.S. ban on Russian #energy imports does not include #uranium for American nuclear power plants, Reuters reports.

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) March 8, 2022

Ukraine is not getting into NATO in the foreseeable future, even if Russia withdrew now.

Germany and France don't want them in and will continue blocking.


https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/592124-putins-effort-to-split-nato-may-depend-on-germany?amp

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The follow-up in the thread. That agreement with Russia would be useless.

Zelenskyy is proposing a "collective security agreement" with Russia, Turkey & Ukraine's other neighbors, as well as the US, France & Germany, according to the official readout of his ABC interview https://t.co/pqa1Lkchyf

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) March 8, 2022

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Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:

⚡️ Zelensky: “We will not give up and we will not lose.”

Zelensky delivered a speech, by live stream, to the UK House of Commons, where he called for increased Western sanctions.

He also asked lawmakers to ensure that the “Ukrainian skies are safe.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022

Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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DallasAg 94 said:

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TChaney said:

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There is no excuse to target civilians the way Russia is doing.

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Here is the problem with that statement... and it goes beyond this conflict.

If civilians are arming themselves and fighting... they are combatants. If you are making molotov cocktails, you are actively participating.

If you can't distinguish between soldiers and civilians, there are no civilians.

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Shoot civilians, civilians arm themselves, justify yourself shooting civilians because they're armed.

Seems reasonable.

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The cycle of war.

McInnis 03 said:

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U.S. has "anecdotal" evidence that some of Russia's more than 150,000 invading troops into Ukraine were told they were going on a training exercise: senior U.S. defense official.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 8, 2022

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Russia's invasion plan was amateur hour, but Ukraine nonetheless has tough times ahead:FLAWED

12th Man Stan Account said:

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Burns says the Chinese are “unsettled” by the impact of Russia’s invasion on the global economy at a time when China needs exonomic growth. Also unsettled by Putin driving EU and US closer together at a time when China felt it was better able to drive a wedge there.

— Eamon Javers (@EamonJavers) March 8, 2022

Putin is not the only one who miscalculated. You reap what you sow.

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Yup. China very much underestimated the West..

🚩Poland agrees to deploy all of its Mig-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the US government.https://t.co/xqkfjiiKI4 pic.twitter.com/neWssq3XA4

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) March 8, 2022

ETA: https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-of-the-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-the-republic-of-poland-in-connection-with-the-statement-by-the-us-secretary-of-state-on-providing-airplanes-to-ukraine

TRM said:

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U.S. ban on Russian #energy imports does not include #uranium for American nuclear power plants, Reuters reports.

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) March 8, 2022

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Similar to our curtailing Russian energy imports, the EU is finally energized to reduce its dependence on Moscow.

It'll take ten years to come to full fruition, but if the EU can achieve its goal of reducing its need for Russian gas by one third over the next year, that'll be a big step forward.

Further on the upside, the US was already projected to become the world's #1 exporter of LNG this year, so our energy industry will get a big bump from increased EU demand.

FINALLY

I suspect Burns is trying to get the mockingbirds to echo. Get the western media saying it. Gives Xi an opportunity to save face by becoming a peacemaker. Hopefully pressures Putin to end this.

I see some big advantages for China going forward. Russia is now clearly the junior partner and will become more beholden the worse it's situation gets. China will get to buy oil and grain at a steep discount. Yes, eventually they would feel the pain when the west buys less of their stuff.

ETA: Xi is the turd who signed off on the invasion by agreeing to provide Russia economic help. He ought to be condemned. I realize hoping Xi and Putin hung at Nuremberg is unrealistic.

12th Man Stan Account said:

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Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:

⚡️ Zelensky: “We will not give up and we will not lose.”

Zelensky delivered a speech, by live stream, to the UK House of Commons, where he called for increased Western sanctions.

He also asked lawmakers to ensure that the “Ukrainian skies are safe.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022

Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.

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Zelensky MUST keep up the 'propaganda' campaign of being on the righteous side, even if damn near the entire world understands and is with him.

By signaling he is open for negotiations, even if there is ZERO chance it happens, the world will keep on reporting him as a man who wants peace, but is forced to fight.

I don't know if he's intentionally doing it, but he's smart.

*RUSSIA ANNOUNCES `SILENCE PERIOD' IN UKRAINE ON MARCH 9: IFX

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022

*`SILENCE PERIOD' NEEDED FOR UKRAINE HUMANITARIAN CORRIDORS: IFX

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022

12th Man Stan Account said:

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Quote:

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The follow-up in the thread. That agreement with Russia would be useless.

Zelenskyy is proposing a "collective security agreement" with Russia, Turkey & Ukraine's other neighbors, as well as the US, France & Germany, according to the official readout of his ABC interview https://t.co/pqa1Lkchyf

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) March 8, 2022

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Hard to reconcile those comments w/ these latest comments from Zelensky:

⚡️ Zelensky: “We will not give up and we will not lose.”

Zelensky delivered a speech, by live stream, to the UK House of Commons, where he called for increased Western sanctions.

He also asked lawmakers to ensure that the “Ukrainian skies are safe.”

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022

Confusing to make both of these statements in the same day, no?
Here's hoping he sticks to his guns.

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I think we're missing a ton of context around each comment.

But, you could reconcile it like this:

Zelensky saying the stuff about NATO is definitely signaling to Putin there is a way to negotiate and play ball. At the same time, the comments to the House of Commons about continuing to fight signals to Putin the Ukrainian people aren't going to go down easy and to expect more of what they have seen.

I do wonder the context of each comment, specifically the to the House of Commons.

TRM said:

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🚩Poland agrees to deploy all of its Mig-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the US government.https://t.co/xqkfjiiKI4 pic.twitter.com/neWssq3XA4

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) March 8, 2022

ETA: https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/statement-of-the-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-the-republic-of-poland-in-connection-with-the-statement-by-the-us-secretary-of-state-on-providing-airplanes-to-ukraine

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So we get their MiGs for free but they pay us for our "used" equipment? And Poland is encouraging other NATO nations with MiGs to do the same?

Then we give the MiGs to Ukraine and Putin won't view that as an escalation?

I don't like this.

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place them at the disposal of the US government.

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Yeah - how do we get planes from Germany to Ukraine? Seems like a very unnecessary complication