***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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cone
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AG
these NFZ hawks are terrifying
Who?mikejones!
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There are quite a lot of videos woth dead russian soldiers that don't make this thread.

Most of them are abandoned due to lack of fuel or maintenance issues. Others are lost in hit and run attacks which the Russian soldiers escape.
The Debt
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Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
LMCane
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ATX_AG_08 said:




was in the Air Force and not a tanker, but that Uke T-80 seems to be used completely incorrectly

it is showing it's weaker side flank to the oncoming Russians, and is out in the open with no cover.

when all around it are buildings that it could be hiding in with it's stronger front armor pointing to the advancing Russians.
aezmvp
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cone said:

these NFZ hawks are terrifying
Yeah they have no concept of what that would entail. I think based on Russian performance so far that it would almost certainly result in a nuclear exchange at least tactically with the Russians nuking Poland and the Baltics and us nuking Kaliningrad. It would be a **** show. 100,000s dead at a minimum. There is no way the Russians don't escalate to deescalate at that point as it is very clear their military would get shellacked inside of a week with NATO intervention.
Ulysses90
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Agthatbuilds said:

OG UNF said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

flakrat said:

htownag10 said:



This images need to make it to the Russian public. What an embarrassment to the might bear army.
I get the desire to revel in this (Russian military poverty = good), but many a war has been won by a force who improvises & adapts. Our nation's highlight reel includes many images which would elicit civilian snark.

I just get a sense that many folks are gleefully dancing on Putin's grave while he's still very much alive and it concerns me that these attitudes will help to get us drawn into an unwise position.


This. Ukraine army has been made out to be a scrappy fighter, but riding in a dump truck means Russians ain't acting like redcoats.


The question is why have the Russians had the need to bring in civilian vehicles to fulfill their mission needs

Is it a reliability issue? Have they had so much loss that the dump trucks were the easiest/quickest solution? Is there a more nefarious use for them like sabotage?

It will be telling to see how this equipment is fielded by the russians.

Reliability has a lot to do with it but so does losses. Russias equipment losses can be binned in the categories of destroyed, captured, and abandoned. Just looking at the totals of Russian tank losses documneed by Oryx, they have had fewer tanks destroyed than they have had captured. on top of that, they have had half as many tanks abandoned as they have had destroyed. I am guessing that the majority of abandoned equipment had reliability issues that made the crews unable or unwilling to fight with them. Combining the number of vehicles abandoned and the number of vehicles captured tells you why there are Russian soldiers riding dump trucks.
Jarrin' Jay
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AG
flakrat said:

OG UNF said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

flakrat said:

htownag10 said:


This images need to make it to the Russian public. What an embarrassment to the might bear army.
I get the desire to revel in this (Russian military poverty = good), but many a war has been won by a force who improvises & adapts. Our nation's highlight reel includes many images which would elicit civilian snark.

I just get a sense that many folks are gleefully dancing on Putin's grave while he's still very much alive and it concerns me that these attitudes will help to get us drawn into an unwise position.
This. Ukraine army has been made out to be a scrappy fighter, but riding in a dump truck means Russians ain't acting like redcoats.
I don't argue with the initiative and value of the troops on the ground improvising to continue their mission / survive, but for the general populace, this would be good propaganda.

This is just one isolated incident, but this has gone so terribly poorly for the Russians there is no other way to spin it that their Army and Air Force are not near the fighting force that the world believed they were / are, particularly the Air Force.

The amount, frequency, and # of shelled / destroyed / captured / abandoned Russian tanks, APCs, missile launch systems and trucks is staggering IMHO.

They just don't know what the hell they are doing, there appears to be no plan, no coordination on the ground, zero coordination with air assets, they either did not establish or cannot maintain supply lines, the north 40 miles long convoy is a total and complete joke militarily. Putin is going to have to bring more forces to commit to this invasion to reach his objectives and get the air force off the ground and accept the losses that will come.

I used to think it was a foregone conclusion that Russia would win the initial battles and obtain their goals but then fight a very long occupation insurgent war on the ground on location while continuing to be affected by years of crippling sanctions, and it would ultimately be the demise of Putin. Now.... I am not even so certain that Russia can even take Ukraine at all.

Putin's message has been heard, if he were smart he would keep pushing the "peace talks" whereby Crimea and Dobas are ceded and Ukraine officially declares neutrality, instead of continuing to commit his forces, and more forces, and embarrassing himself and his army for their performance.

At this level of execution it is clear Russia would get wiped out in a conventional engagement with NATO.
Teddy Perkins
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AG
LMCane
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The Debt said:

Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
been saying this for awhile now, we are only seeing one side of this war.

and while the Russians have taken severe losses, they still outnumber and outgun the Ukes.

it is all going to come down to which side can bring in reinforcements,

keep their forces supplied in the field,

and can the Ukes hold on long enough (before there is no country left) for the economic pain on Russia to force them to a ceasefire.
Charpie
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AG
Scroll running on the bottom of CNN right now.

"US sending an additional 500 troops to Europe."
Valtrex11
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LMCane said:

The Debt said:

Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
been saying this for awhile now, we are only seeing one side of this war.

and while the Russians have taken severe losses, they still outnumber and outgun the Ukes.

it is all going to come down to which side can bring in reinforcements,

keep their forces supplied in the field,

and can the Ukes hold on long enough (before there is no country left) for the economic pain on Russia to force them to a ceasefire.
not only that Russia will never ever be able to garrison the country or install a puppet...Their best best is to negotiate the best terms they can..This is pretty much a disaster for Russia.
SpreadsheetAg
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AG
What's strange to me is that they don't thermite the vehicles to make them inoperable. I believe this is standard OP for abandonment of US military vehicles.

You have to abandon your equipment? You drop a thermite grenade on the engine block and scoot. It probably won't melt all the way through the block but it will do enough damage to the engine and other equipment around it to make the unit inoperable...
BQ_90
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SpreadsheetAg said:

What's strange to me is that they don't thermite the vehicles to make them inoperable. I believe this is standard OP for abandonment of US military vehicles.

You have to abandon your equipment? You drop a thermite grenade on the engine block and scoot. It probably won't melt all the way through the block but it will do enough damage to the engine and other equipment around it to make the unit inoperable...
only thing I figure is they thinnk they can recover them later. My guess is they underestimated the farmers in the area stealing everything
Charpie
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AG
Get Off My Lawn
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Agthatbuilds said:

Get Off My Lawn said:

My point is that we should curb our enthusiasm. Something can be a good sign while still falling short of being indicative of victory. There are folks getting whipped into a frenzy over this thing. Covid, BLM, Ukraine, Russian collusion, orange man bad, etc: a person who lets their emotions outrun their skepticism will follow puppet masters.


Russia still has the upper hand but I read today it's costing putin 650 million per day for this war. I presume that's that cost of fighting plus the cost of sanctions.

Further, it appear both armies now have a roughly equal amount of personnel in country. The ukes just need to keep stretching this out for as long as they can.
Which all seems great - I'm just nervous about how this ends. Put Putin on the ropes and he might take off the gloves. Protracted war isn't good for Ukrainian civilians. Total war isn't good for Ukrainians (we haven't seen city-leveling activities yet). I don't see Putin simply retreating. A carved up Ukraine probably sees some civil war type fallout. The chance of us seeing nukes flying is miniscule - but it's non-zero. And if Ukraine is able to hang on to its independence as a non-puppet state... it's still a corrupt and war ravaged country.

Then there are the general concerns: Our enemies getting cozier isn't good. A real move away from the US dollar as the global currency would be terrible for us. Russian collapse will impact the world. And most outcomes result in disruptions to oil and food - which is globally impactful...

I just have significant concern that "winning" is likely to be just a lesser severity of the bad, and am very nervous about the people who are in position to navigate "the end" to this invasion.
Charpie
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AG
Less commentary...more updates please
LMCane
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ATX_AG_08 said:

Very optimistic assessment. I pray he's right.


Uh, the Finns did not win the Winter War in 1940. So his analysis seems to be suspect.

The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union
Valtrex11
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LMCane said:

ATX_AG_08 said:

Very optimistic assessment. I pray he's right.


Uh, the Finns did not win the Winter War in 1940. So his analysis seems to be suspect.

The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union
Yes correct but it could have been worse for the finns..They inflicted heavy losses on an ill prepared Russian army who that they could simply roll Finland in 3 days.
Corporal Punishment
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Thank you. That was a really bizarre tweet.
TRM
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Agthatbuilds said:


The follow-up in the thread. That agreement with Russia would be useless.
RebelE Infantry
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AG
Teddy Perkins said:




Madness. Utter madness
ABATTBQ11
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AG
Also not a tanker, but it probably can't break for cover behind the building to its right in the frame if it's pointed forward. If it's pointing its armored front to the oncoming Russians, it has less lateral maneuverability because it has to turn the chassis to move side to side. It can't be both pointed forward and using buildings for cover because it can't move in and out from behind the building.
FireAg
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AG
Charpie said:

Scroll running on the bottom of CNN right now.

"US sending an additional 500 troops to Europe."
Deployed out of Fort Hood, per my understanding...
rgag12
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AG
Valtrex11 said:

LMCane said:

The Debt said:

Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
been saying this for awhile now, we are only seeing one side of this war.

and while the Russians have taken severe losses, they still outnumber and outgun the Ukes.

it is all going to come down to which side can bring in reinforcements,

keep their forces supplied in the field,

and can the Ukes hold on long enough (before there is no country left) for the economic pain on Russia to force them to a ceasefire.
not only that Russia will never ever be able to garrison the country or install a puppet...Their best best is to negotiate the best terms they can..This is pretty much a disaster for Russia.


I don't think Russia ever wanted to garrison any part of the country outside of the Donbas. Their goals were, and still are, to separate the Donbas to create a buffer state, install a pro-Russian head of state for Ukraine, and solve the dam issue in Kherson Oblast so Crimea can have access to water.

I agree that installing any kind of puppet leader is a move destined to fail. At some point the Ukrainians would oust them like they did in 2014. At this point it'd be best if Ukraine let Russia have the Donbas, and for Russia to give up the idea of thwarting Ukraine's westward drift. Hopefully the two countries realize this sooner rather than later.
benchmark
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AG
Teddy Perkins said:

US foreign policy heavyweights call for limited no-fly zone over Ukraine.

The group of 27 foreign policy leaders urged the U.S. to impose a limited no-fly zone over Ukraine starting with protection for humanitarian corridors, Politico reported.
POLITICO Playbook: EXCLUSIVE: 'Limited' no-fly zone gains steam among foreign policy elite

Nice to debate, but I wouldn't put much weight into this. However, if the war moves too far west it's possible we'll see a 50 mile wide DMZ safe-zone declared near NATO borders for humanitarian purposes.

The Debt
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Turkey, Russian, Ukraine pact is interesting, but the fact Zelensky (err rather Kolomoisky) is willing to consider it signals that they want to strike a deal quicker than Russia does.
The Debt
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Remember that Russia built two pipelines around ukraine because ukraine forced a heavy levy on Russias primary pipe to the EU.
TRM
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AG


TRM
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AG
NE of Kyiv.
Francis Macomber
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LMCane said:

The Debt said:

Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
been saying this for awhile now, we are only seeing one side of this war.

and while the Russians have taken severe losses, they still outnumber and outgun the Ukes.

it is all going to come down to which side can bring in reinforcements,

keep their forces supplied in the field,

and can the Ukes hold on long enough (before there is no country left) for the economic pain on Russia to force them to a ceasefire.
I agree that everyone should be skeptical of tweets and unconfirmed reports, but... I do remember that the guy who said Russia would be done by Sunday walked that statement back pretty quickly to clarify that he did not mean Russia would be in full retreat by Sunday. I cannot remember exactly what he did say, but he did clarify it and he clarified pretty quickly (not after Sunday came and went).
Robk
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A lot of backing off today.

1. Zelinsky Statements
2. Sweden saying no NATO (right now)
3. UN not wanting to use war/invasion (IF TRUE)
4. KIA numbers reported by US still basically the same number they reported several days ago.

These almost feel planned, and trying desperately to give Putin an off ramp.


GeorgiAg
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AG
Robk said:

A lot of backing off today.

1. Zelinsky Statements
2. Sweden saying no NATO (right now)
3. UN not wanting to use war/invasion (IF TRUE)
4. KIA numbers reported by US still basically the same number they reported several days ago.

These almost feel planned, and trying desperately to give Putin an off ramp.



Good, please be true.
ATX_AG_08
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AG
DallasAg 94
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The Debt
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bangobango said:

LMCane said:

The Debt said:

Its Tuesday. I thought there was credible sources saying Russians were logistically unable to stay fed and fuelled beyond Sunday.

Maybe we shouldn't put too much stock in all these tweets and blue checkmarks.
been saying this for awhile now, we are only seeing one side of this war.

and while the Russians have taken severe losses, they still outnumber and outgun the Ukes.

it is all going to come down to which side can bring in reinforcements,

keep their forces supplied in the field,

and can the Ukes hold on long enough (before there is no country left) for the economic pain on Russia to force them to a ceasefire.
I agree that everyone should be skeptical of tweets and unconfirmed reports, but... I do remember that the guy who said Russia would be done by Sunday walked that statement back pretty quickly to clarify that he did not mean Russia would be in full retreat by Sunday. I cannot remember exactly what he did say, but he did clarify it and he clarified pretty quickly (not after Sunday came and went).

It wasnt a question of "full retreat" it was a question of inability to project power into ukraine longer than Sunday.

We were told russians would run out of gas and food. This sentiment was confirmed by additional tweets.

It seems the majority of the "information" out there is just wishful thinking.
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