Easy way to get rid of the bodies
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 3 hrs ago by 74OA
And this guy posted a new update in the last few hours. Good stuff.
Make transmission lines to EU grid. Set them up, but don't throw the switch.
Do a lot of planning related to frequency management and demand management with the grid operator.
Throw the switch turning off the RU grid and turning on the EU grid at the same time.
Hope nothing trips.
Do a lot of planning related to frequency management and demand management with the grid operator.
Throw the switch turning off the RU grid and turning on the EU grid at the same time.
Hope nothing trips.
BusterAg said:
Possible that the general was captured? That would be worse for the RU army than KIA, right?
Doubtful. More likely he looks like a hot dog left on the grill too long.
Well, except maybe the Russian grid. It would be a shame if that happened.BusterAg said:
Make transmission lines to EU grid. Set them up, but don't throw the switch.
Do a lot of planning related to frequency management and demand management with the grid operator.
Throw the switch turning off the RU grid and turning on the EU grid at the same time.
Hope nothing trips.
Thanks for asking. We received an update yesterday and unfortunately things are slowly tightening for them. Melitopol is without TV, cell and internet service now and power is intermittent. They have some sort of portable internet device they can use for text messages/social media, but calls aren't working. Food scarcity is increasing and most of the grocery stores are pretty much picked over and nearly empty. This is a big agriculture area and so a lot of farmers are bringing food to town to sell, but costs are rising quickly as you can imagine and a lot of citizens don't have the money to buy much.Teddy Perkins said:Spaceship, how are things with your BIL in Melitopol? Things still relatively peaceful in Melitopol? Power, water, heat still on?Spaceship said:12th Man Stan Account said:You're thinking of Spaceship. He has a BIL in Melitopol.BadMoonRisin said:
How is your BIL doing in Mauripol?
Thanks for asking. They are doing okay - the city has remained relatively peaceful. Two large aid trucks arrived today, apparently from Russia (Crimea), with food and a gesture to the Ukrainian people to those who tolerate the Russian occupation with relatively low resistance get rewarded…
He said all the police have basically fled and so some locals have banded together to create a citizens police group to monitor the streets, keep the peace, etc. Apparently looting is a big problem right now.
With this power plant near disaster tonight only being 60 miles away from Melitopol, I'm wondering if it gets shut down and they lose power indefinitely. Hopefully not.
My BIL there firmly believes Ukraine will ultimately prevail and win this. My 80 year old Ukrainian father-in-law here in the US firmly believes Russia will. It's a interesting dichotomy.
One family member spent about 4 hours driving around and waiting in line for gasoline this week - they can still get it but its scarce. It seems like the tone from them is increasingly getting more disappointed and melancholy. They want to leave but crossing the entire country right now is riskier than staying put. There are a lot of rumors of looting and carjackings on the rural roads since there basically is no police force to speak of. The city is still relatively peaceful despite growing public displays from the locals, but they said they can hear warfare overhead (planes, missiles, shooting, etc.). They still get out most days to walk around and see what's going on, but its cold and grey there most days. We are praying daily for their protection and provision, for immediate peace and for good to defeat evil.
I don't like this... but it is probably the right move to ratchet down the NATO rhetoric for now. NATO won't accept any countries with ongoing territorial disputes, so there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted any time soon anyway. Just look at Georgia, they've been waiting since 2008 to join NATO but the South Ossetia situation has prevented that.Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
This gives Putin a path to de-escalate, as NATO expansion seemed to be his main concern.
I hope the Ukes continue to pursue EU membership & don't relinquish their territorial claims in Donbass and Crimea. Next step should be to pursue a multi-party security agreement that is much more robust than the Budapest Memorandum.
Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
Good move. Nato isn't much use to Ukraine any more as nato has drawn a big red line they will not cross concerning actual war vs Russia. Ukraine has also proven they can fight and nato countries can supply the weapons and status quo will remain.
Wouldn't that paint a target on them?BusterAg said:
Make transmission lines to EU grid. Set them up, but don't throw the switch.
Do a lot of planning related to frequency management and demand management with the grid operator.
Throw the switch turning off the RU grid and turning on the EU grid at the same time.
Hope nothing trips.
And thanks.
There are lots of NATO levels and agreements that aren't full membership i.e. Article V inclusion. I would bet a whole lot that they would be damn near close to full NATO integration in 10 years if they make it out of this.12th Man Stan Account said:I don't like this... but it is probably the right move to ratchet down the NATO rhetoric for now. NATO won't accept any countries with ongoing territorial disputes, so there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted any time soon anyway. Just look at Georgia, they've been waiting since 2008 to join NATO but the South Ossetia situation has prevented that.Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
This gives Putin a path to de-escalate, as NATO expansion seemed to be his main concern.
I hope the Ukes continue to pursue EU membership & don't relinquish their territorial claims in Donbass and Crimea. Next step should be to pursue a multi-party security agreement that is much more robust than the Budapest Memorandum.
The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.
— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022
The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.
NATO has given Ukraine everything except warm bodies basically and they've held off Russia thus far. Dont' see what they need NATO for anymore really
I pray they have enough defenses to make this Russia's Normandy, with a dissimilar outcome of course.
At least 20 Russian fighter jets and helicopters have been shot down in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, experts tell BBC. That’s the biggest loss by an air force since the Gulf War in 1991.
— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) March 8, 2022
M.A.D.Irish 2.0 said:
NATO has given Ukraine everything except warm bodies basically and they've held off Russia thus far. Dont' see what they need NATO for anymore really
12th Man Stan Account said:I don't like this... but it is probably the right move to ratchet down the NATO rhetoric for now. NATO won't accept any countries with ongoing territorial disputes, so there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted any time soon anyway. Just look at Georgia, they've been waiting since 2008 to join NATO but the South Ossetia situation has prevented that.Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
This gives Putin a path to de-escalate, as NATO expansion seemed to be his main concern.
I hope the Ukes continue to pursue EU membership & don't relinquish their territorial claims in Donbass and Crimea. Next step should be to pursue a multi-party security agreement that is much more robust than the Budapest Memorandum.
To put this in perspective, Isreal is not a member of NATo.
Snow, sleet, freezing rain and 20 mph winds through Monday. Wth are they thinking? Man I hope they sink a bunch of these if they try something. I can't imagine trying to come ashore in 34-46 degree Fahrenheit water with freezing temps, high winds, precipitation. Also all your high tide (there isn't a big difference but still) aren't until around 10 AM.TRM said:The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.
— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022
The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.
Best bet would be Monday but why load up guys and leave them afloat for a week?
I don't get it.
Gallipoli. There's history nearby. I would suspect they have a lot of AT weapons and I'm unsure what kind of bombardment the Russians could do that would stop the Ukes from getting into position. Take out a tank onboard an LST and you could create a lot of issues.
Robk said:
A lot of backing off today.
1. Zelinsky Statements
2. Sweden saying no NATO (right now)
3. UN not wanting to use war/invasion (IF TRUE)
4. KIA numbers reported by US still basically the same number they reported several days ago.
These almost feel planned, and trying desperately to give Putin an off ramp.
If we aren't trying to give Putin an off-ramp we have a bunch of toddlers running things. An off-ramp will save a lot of lives in the immediate future and take nuclear escalation off the table.
aezmvp said:Snow, sleet, freezing rain and 20 mph winds through Monday. Wth are they thinking? Man I hope they sink a bunch of these if they try something. I can't imagine trying to come ashore in 34-46 degree Fahrenheit water with freezing temps, high winds, precipitation. Also all your high tide (there isn't a big difference but still) aren't until around 10 AM.TRM said:The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.
— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022
The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.
Best bet would be Monday but why load up guys and leave them afloat for a week?
I don't get it.
To quote the great one:
"We are waiting for the long promised invasion. So are the fishes."
aezmvp said:
Gallipoli. There's history nearby. I would suspect they have a lot of AT weapons and I'm unsure what kind of bombardment the Russians could do that would stop the Ukes from getting into position. Take out a tank onboard an LST and you could create a lot of issues.
The difference in this case is the Russian advance is approaching along the coast from the east. Supposedly Odessa has a lot of UKR forces in the area so it will be a tough nut to crack either way.
Also can't forget UKRs anti ship missiles.
If they make it through this, then Putin is highly likely to not be in power in 10 yeas which would also make their NATO admissibility much more attractive.aezmvp said:There are lots of NATO levels and agreements that aren't full membership i.e. Article V inclusion. I would bet a whole lot that they would be damn near close to full NATO integration in 10 years if they make it out of this.12th Man Stan Account said:I don't like this... but it is probably the right move to ratchet down the NATO rhetoric for now. NATO won't accept any countries with ongoing territorial disputes, so there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted any time soon anyway. Just look at Georgia, they've been waiting since 2008 to join NATO but the South Ossetia situation has prevented that.Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
This gives Putin a path to de-escalate, as NATO expansion seemed to be his main concern.
I hope the Ukes continue to pursue EU membership & don't relinquish their territorial claims in Donbass and Crimea. Next step should be to pursue a multi-party security agreement that is much more robust than the Budapest Memorandum.
And I'd bet too if they make it through this, regardless of NATO, UK's defense spending will likely resemble that of Israel's. Lots of lessons being learned here for future defense purposes.
Zelensky's NATO comments sound like frustration at the current reality as much as anything. It may help give Putin an off-ramp but (1) Putin has to want an on-ramp and (2) Zelensky could always change his (public-facing) mind again in the future.
Also, Zelensky is right. NATO is not prepared right now to accept Ukraine.
Also, Zelensky is right. NATO is not prepared right now to accept Ukraine.
Also, and let's not lose focus of the fact Zelensky has always known NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine anytime soon. And he's not exactly without any blame for that. Zelensky is everyone's fanboi right now, however he's not exactly lilly white.TXAggie2011 said:
Zelensky's NATO comments sound like frustration at the current reality as much as anything. It may help give Putin an off-ramp but (1) Putin has to want an on-ramp and (2) Zelensky could always change his (public-facing) mind again in the future.
Also, Zelensky is right. NATO is not prepared right now to accept Ukraine.
Assuming Ukraine is able to survive this conflict, their more immediate push should be to get EU membership and get financial support to rebuild. The West should also support the rapid transition from Russian weaponry to NATO standard weaponry. All of that can be done without NATO membership.
I know. I mean you put ashore that division or 11 battalions or whatever the number is early and push to cut of Kherson and capture it early and get regular formations moving quickly towards Odessa on days 1 2 or 3, I get that. Now that they have fortified the area and are pushing reserves towards the area... very odd.RebelE Infantry said:aezmvp said:
Gallipoli. There's history nearby. I would suspect they have a lot of AT weapons and I'm unsure what kind of bombardment the Russians could do that would stop the Ukes from getting into position. Take out a tank onboard an LST and you could create a lot of issues.
The difference in this case is the Russian advance is approaching along the coast from the east. Supposedly Odessa has a lot of UKR forces in the area so it will be a tough nut to crack either way.
Also can't forget UKRs anti ship missiles.
Best guess looking at the weather is a feint like Gulf War 1 and a push from Kherson to try and break out while freezing reserves and so forth.
Very true, although I don't believe we'd be able to have anywhere near the same level of military relations with Ukraine.IslanderAg04 said:12th Man Stan Account said:I don't like this... but it is probably the right move to ratchet down the NATO rhetoric for now. NATO won't accept any countries with ongoing territorial disputes, so there was zero chance of Ukraine being admitted any time soon anyway. Just look at Georgia, they've been waiting since 2008 to join NATO but the South Ossetia situation has prevented that.Irish 2.0 said:In nod to Russia, Ukraine says no longer insisting on NATO membership: AFP
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 8, 2022
This gives Putin a path to de-escalate, as NATO expansion seemed to be his main concern.
I hope the Ukes continue to pursue EU membership & don't relinquish their territorial claims in Donbass and Crimea. Next step should be to pursue a multi-party security agreement that is much more robust than the Budapest Memorandum.
To put this in perspective, Isreal is not a member of NATo.
What I'd like to see is Israel step up and take the initiative in mediating this conflict, as they have a very good relationship with Ukraine, Russia, & the US. Surely we could reach an agreement acceptable to all parties that allows Ukraine to keep its democratically-elected government. Everyone seems to be demonstrating a willingness to de-escalate now.
Not surprisingly, fighting is projected to get even more brutal as Russia's gloves come off: CIA
Here's why contested amphibious assault vs Ukraine is problematic, particularly at Odessa.TRM said:The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.
— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022
The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.
An overview by a Marine who spent his career specializing in amphibious warfare.
Not Likely
The U.S. is providing Ukraine information about what is happening on the ground. C.I.A. Director Burns said he has shared information with Zelensky of the most concerning details about the Russian plan ahead of the invasion and “we've continued to do that every day since then.”
— Julian E. Barnes (@julianbarnes) March 8, 2022
If the Russians try an amphibious assault and the US has told the Ukes the when-and-where, it will be bloody.
aezmvp said:I know. I mean you put ashore that division or 11 battalions or whatever the number is early and push to cut of Kherson and capture it early and get regular formations moving quickly towards Odessa on days 1 2 or 3, I get that. Now that they have fortified the area and are pushing reserves towards the area... very odd.RebelE Infantry said:aezmvp said:
Gallipoli. There's history nearby. I would suspect they have a lot of AT weapons and I'm unsure what kind of bombardment the Russians could do that would stop the Ukes from getting into position. Take out a tank onboard an LST and you could create a lot of issues.
The difference in this case is the Russian advance is approaching along the coast from the east. Supposedly Odessa has a lot of UKR forces in the area so it will be a tough nut to crack either way.
Also can't forget UKRs anti ship missiles.
Best guess looking at the weather is a feint like Gulf War 1 and a push from Kherson to try and break out while freezing reserves and so forth.
I don't disagree at all here. I think the weather has delayed this landing force for the better part of a week now, maybe more. Worst case (from the Russian perspective) is that this landing force ties down those UKR forces in Odessa and prevents them from joining the line elsewhere or setting up a defensive position further up the Dnieper.
Odessa is a very strategically important town and it will be interesting to see if the Russians make a push to take it, even as a bargaining chip at the negotiating table. Or just keep the defenders tied down and play for a capitulation by the UKR government.
Oh no
aezmvp said:Snow, sleet, freezing rain and 20 mph winds through Monday. Wth are they thinking? Man I hope they sink a bunch of these if they try something. I can't imagine trying to come ashore in 34-46 degree Fahrenheit water with freezing temps, high winds, precipitation. Also all your high tide (there isn't a big difference but still) aren't until around 10 AM.TRM said:The U.S believes #Russia has prepared up to 11 large landing ships (capable of carrying tanks) for an amphibious landing in the Black Sea. The exact number of troops aboard each ship is not clear.
— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 8, 2022
The most likely location for any such landing would be #Odessa.
Best bet would be Monday but why load up guys and leave them afloat for a week?
I don't get it.
The US is the only nation in the world until about 10 years ago (Australia) that regularly deploys a landing force on amphibious ships and sails them around for extended periods of time. The Russians have never done this before in combat. It's brand new to them and they are, without a doubt, already encountering problems at D-1 that they have not planned for.
US amphibious ships aren't luxurious but they are a Disney Princess cruise ship compared to the way the Russians are probably crammed into those ships like underfed seasick match sticks. They will be exhausted, hungry, seasick, and disoriented when they hit the beach after spending several days Belo decks on th amphibs.
My bet is that they are going to try and do this like a simple offload of troops rather than the opposed landing that it will be. There has been no mention of the naval gunfire platforms that would provide prep fires on the defending emplacement. The shifting and lifting of prep fires is a BIG deal if you want to ensure that the landing force doesn't get fed into a buzz saw.
If you haven't practiced it, amphibious landings end up looking like a bunch of tourists trying to identify landmarks on the beach. Those assault echelons need really aggressive NCOs and Lieutenants to move the to their initial objective to get the Force Beachead Line established. There has been lititle evidence of such NCOs abd Lieutenants in the Russian Army thus far.
The Ukrainians have hard choices to makeabout whether they seek to disrupt the landing and make the Russians turn away or to let them first become decisively engaged and try to kill as many as possible and take them out of the action.
PUTIN DECIDES TO BAN THE EXPORT OF PRODUCTS AND RAW MATERIALS OUTSIDE THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION UNTIL DECEMBER 31
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 8, 2022
Wonder what China thinks about this.
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