***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Jayhawk
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In reply to Keegan99 • 11:59a, 3/6/22
Keegan99 said:
Correct. But what's the difference between that and Uke pilots just flying missions from Poland? In either case, it's an engagement by an aircraft that took off from a Polish base.
I suppose the distinction would be that the aircraft taking off from Poland is performing a repositioning flight. Whereas the next time it takes off, armed, from somewhere in Ukraine it is flying a combat mission. Very fine parsing i'll grant you. The Russians will try to shoot down those aircraft in either scenario if they can. Perhaps the difference is that if the Ukrainians began regularly flying combat missions from bases in Poland that is materially different then funneling Migs into Ukraine for future combat use.
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TRM
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12:01p, 3/6/22
AG
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ttu_85
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In reply to TRM • 12:03p, 3/6/22
TRM said:
Uh, from a war fighting stand point this is about eight days late.
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Ghost of Bisbee
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12:04p, 3/6/22
AG
Anyone have any thoughts on CIA or MI6 clandestine ops in Russia during this time? Gotta think there are plans in operation to neutralize Putin.
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SPSAg05
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In reply to Jayhawk • 12:07p, 3/6/22
AG
Jayhawk said:
Keegan99 said:
Correct. But what's the difference between that and Uke pilots just flying missions from Poland? In either case, it's an engagement by an aircraft that took off from a Polish base.
I suppose the distinction would be that the aircraft taking off from Poland is performing a repositioning flight. Whereas the next time it takes off, armed, from somewhere in Ukraine it is flying a combat mission. Very fine parsing i'll grant you. The Russians will try to shoot down those aircraft in either scenario if they can. Perhaps the difference is that if the Ukrainians began regularly flying combat missions from bases in Poland that is materially different then funneling Migs into Ukraine for future combat use.
There's no way the Ukrainian pilots could be expected to fly them back to Ukraine from Poland unarmed in the middle of all of this, is there?
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ttu_85
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In reply to Secolobo • 12:08p, 3/6/22
Secolobo said:
Fitch said:
aggiehawg said:
Robk said:


Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.
Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.


And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .



Gosh, I wonder where they got that idea….
Whats worrisome is it sounds like the Putin regime is using propaganda to prepare the Russian people for an expansion of the war.

Our people better be looking out
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CondensedFogAggie
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12:09p, 3/6/22

As well as helping and boosting morale, the Catholic church seems to be hardening/solidifying it's stance in the war even more.

Which makes it harder for Russia to generate propaganda. Despite both Ukraine and them being more Orthodox Christian than Catholic.
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Jayhawk
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 12:10p, 3/6/22
SPSAg05 said:
Jayhawk said:
Keegan99 said:
Correct. But what's the difference between that and Uke pilots just flying missions from Poland? In either case, it's an engagement by an aircraft that took off from a Polish base.
I suppose the distinction would be that the aircraft taking off from Poland is performing a repositioning flight. Whereas the next time it takes off, armed, from somewhere in Ukraine it is flying a combat mission. Very fine parsing i'll grant you. The Russians will try to shoot down those aircraft in either scenario if they can. Perhaps the difference is that if the Ukrainians began regularly flying combat missions from bases in Poland that is materially different then funneling Migs into Ukraine for future combat use.
There's no way the Ukrainian pilots could be expected to fly them back to Ukraine from Poland unarmed in the middle of all of this, is there?
Probably not. But I imagine a strict condition of the deal is that they will fly directly from their departure airfield in Poland to wherever they are going to be based in Ukraine without looking to engage the Russians. The Russians will try to shoot them down regardless once they cross into Ukrainian airspace.
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AggieDruggist89
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In reply to ttu_85 • 12:10p, 3/6/22
AG
ttu_85 said:
Secolobo said:
Fitch said:
aggiehawg said:
Robk said:


Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.
Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.


And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .



Gosh, I wonder where they got that idea….
Whats worrisome is it sounds like the Putin regime is using propaganda to prepare the Russian people for an expansion of the war.

Our people better be looking out
sounds like to me he's just trying to tread water and justify the attack instead of expansion of...
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ttu_85
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In reply to Ghost of Bisbee • 12:11p, 3/6/22
Ghost of Bizbee said:
Anyone have any thoughts on CIA or MI6 clandestine ops in Russia during this time? Gotta think there are plans in operation to neutralize Putin.
IF they think Putin capable of pushing the the button I would think this likely. IF NOT that would be an escalation risk on our part. Only those folk in the know would have the answer to that question. Which excludes any of us or Biden given he could not grasp the situation
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to docb • 12:12p, 3/6/22
AG
Exactly he is using Belarus and the Black Sea to stage and now he is using Ukraine. **** pootin and the ussr.
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SPSAg05
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In reply to ttu_85 • 12:13p, 3/6/22
AG
ttu_85 said:
Ghost of Bizbee said:
Anyone have any thoughts on CIA or MI6 clandestine ops in Russia during this time? Gotta think there are plans in operation to neutralize Putin.
IF they think Putin capable of pushing the the button I would think this likely. IF NOT that would be an escalation risk on our part. Only those folk in the know would have the answer to that question. Which excludes any of us or Biden given he could not grasp the situation
I'm hoping Israel's PM had some extra company on his flight over that Putin didn't know about.
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Rapier108
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In reply to ttu_85 • 12:13p, 3/6/22
ttu_85 said:
Secolobo said:
Fitch said:
aggiehawg said:
Robk said:


Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.
Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.


And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .



Gosh, I wonder where they got that idea….
Whats worrisome is it sounds like the Putin regime is using propaganda to prepare the Russian people for an expansion of the war.

Our people better be looking out
These are the same claims that the pro-Putin shrills here and elsewhere have been making since day.

I guess Russia finally decided to join in.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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ttu_85
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In reply to AggieDruggist89 • 12:14p, 3/6/22
AggieDruggist89 said:
ttu_85 said:
Secolobo said:
Fitch said:
aggiehawg said:
Robk said:


Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.
Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.


And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .



Gosh, I wonder where they got that idea….
Whats worrisome is it sounds like the Putin regime is using propaganda to prepare the Russian people for an expansion of the war.

Our people better be looking out
sounds like to me he's just trying to tread water and justify the attack instead of expansion of...
Treading water is NOT AT ALL in Putins interest. This thing being drawn out is a political, economic and military disaster for his gov
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TRM
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12:21p, 3/6/22
AG
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In reply to ttu_85 • 12:23p, 3/6/22
AG
ttu_85 said:
Secolobo said:
Fitch said:
aggiehawg said:
Robk said:


Lots of personel are going to look to GTFO of Russia if their accounts are higher than they should be.
Hehehe!

Looks like Putin has figured out he has been Saddamed. His military has been stealing for years while filing false reports of "ghost" weapons and military unit readiness.

And from the long threadreader from the FSB (?) analyst, Putin cannot even be sure his nuke stock has been properly maintained and still function as designed.


And as if on queue, the Kremlin begins advertising Ukrainian attempts to build a dirty bomb.

Curious if anyone knows definitively if fissile material can be traced back to the specific reactor and days it was produced? Popular media would lead one to assume that's the case - in which case how could something like that even be faked? Maybe why they changed the tactic. . .



Gosh, I wonder where they got that idea….
Whats worrisome is it sounds like the Putin regime is using propaganda to prepare the Russian people for an expansion of the war.

Our people better be looking out
Yup, he has "journalists" pushing a NATO laptop with intelligence and battle plans for Donbas and Crimea.
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Charpie
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12:39p, 3/6/22
AG
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74OA
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In reply to TRM • 12:43p, 3/6/22
AG
TRM said:
BD88 said:
Rubio active this morning…


I don't think UKR would want to fly from there anyway - too close to the action. It'd have to be further west closer to Lviv. That's one less airport that the Russians could have flown to for resupply. I wonder if Russia expected to take Gostomel quickly and use that airport for resupply rather than using the long convoy.
An airfield's combat utility depends on whether the runway and fuel storage are intact, because that's all fighters need to operate.

Thick concrete runways are incredibly difficult to crater and easy to patch. Fuel can be trucked in.

The terminal and other soft buildings are easy to destroy but are largely unnecessary for combat ops.
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TRM
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12:44p, 3/6/22
AG
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In reply to 74OA • 12:48p, 3/6/22
AG
Do they have the ability to patch it at the moment?
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74OA
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In reply to TRM • 12:53p, 3/6/22
AG
TRM said:
Do they have the ability to patch it at the moment?
I'd imagine so but can't be certain of course.

If concrete isn't available, compacted fill with metal planking or matting on top are typical expedient runway repairs under combat conditions.

The ex-Soviet fighters the Ukrainians are flying have robust landing gear designed for less than pristine runway conditions.
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wtmartinaggie
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12:57p, 3/6/22
AG
my bet is that they are using older missiles because they know:

1) this conflict is likely to expand beyond ukraine and they'll need their best munitions for the broader theater
2) the economic embargo is going to make building more nearly impossible

i'd imagine this re-adjustment/convoy situation we've seen is a recalibration to the reality that this war is going to be long, bloody and likely will expand beyond a two-state conflict.

I also think due to this risk the russians did not send their best and brightest in as part of the first wave. had the ukrainians rolled over as hoped/expected, a bunch of inexperienced 19 year olds in two-generation old armor would have been adequate. In the worst/current scenario, they've made great canon fodder. the big miscalculation was that the ukrainians have gotten immense donations of weapons (some better than what they initially had) that has rendered the theory they'd blow their load and run out of ammo obsolete.

putin miscalculated here and has had some bad luck along the way with weather and political backlash, but he knew full well that this conflict could turn into something bigger than he was hoping it would be. those strategic contingencies are now having to be realigned to fit the new reality on the ground.
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12:58p, 3/6/22
AG
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TheEternalPessimist
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 1:02p, 3/6/22
wtmartinaggie said:
my bet is that they are using older missiles because they know:

1) this conflict is likely to expand beyond ukraine and they'll need their best munitions for the broader theater
2) the economic embargo is going to make building more nearly impossible

i'd imagine this re-adjustment/convoy situation we've seen is a recalibration to the reality that this war is going to be long, bloody and likely will expand beyond a two-state conflict.

I also think due to this risk the russians did not send their best and brightest in as part of the first wave. had the ukrainians rolled over as hoped/expected, a bunch of inexperienced 19 year olds in two-generation old armor would have been adequate. In the worst/current scenario, they've made great canon fodder. the big miscalculation was that the ukrainians have gotten immense donations of weapons (some better than what they initially had) that has rendered the theory they'd blow their load and run out of ammo obsolete.

putin miscalculated here and has had some bad luck along the way with weather and political backlash, but he knew full well that this conflict could turn into something bigger than he was hoping it would be. those strategic contingencies are now having to be realigned to fit the new reality on the ground.
So who attacks who first?

NATO/EU attacks Russia?
Russia invades or attacks Finland/Sweden or Poland?

If this thing expands..... there has to be a place where the expansion starts.... and pray that MAD prevents nuke usage....... but I am not so sure.

--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
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74OA
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In reply to TRM • 1:08p, 3/6/22
AG
TRM said:
Russia's military has over 1M active-duty personnel and 2M more in its reserves. Only a fraction is in Ukraine. Not sure why Moscow would have a military manpower problem that required civilian mobilization.
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GAC06
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In reply to TheEternalPessimist • 1:08p, 3/6/22
AG
Russia isn't invading any NATO country. They have their hands more than full in Ukraine. If there's a wider war it will be missiles/air/naval and maybe nuclear.
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TheCougarHunter
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In reply to 74OA • 1:14p, 3/6/22
AG
74OA said:
TRM said:
Russia's military has over 1M active-duty personnel and 2M more in its reserves. Only a fraction is in Ukraine. Not sure why Moscow would have a military manpower problem that required civilian mobilization.


1M personnel does not mean 1M combat troops. For every front line troop you have 3-4 troops for logistical support, training, maintenance, maintaining bases, recruiting, command and control etc.

Considering Russia has its troops spread out over so much territory and are now mobilizing the military for martial law, the 250k troops in Ukraine could realistically be stretching them very thin at their current manpower level.
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GAC06
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In reply to 74OA • 1:14p, 3/6/22
AG
1M active and 2M reserve is on paper. It took Russia four months to assemble their forces around Ukraine which is the majority of their combat ready forces. Their campaign in Ukraine has already shown their lack of ability to project power and sustain it in a country they border on three sides. They couldn't invade Poland or Finland even if they had the men, equipment, and supplies, and went back in time to put them in position months ago.
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74OA
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In reply to TheCougarHunter • 1:16p, 3/6/22
AG
TheCougarHunter said:
74OA said:
TRM said:
Russia's military has over 1M active-duty personnel and 2M more in its reserves. Only a fraction is in Ukraine. Not sure why Moscow would have a military manpower problem that required civilian mobilization.


1M personnel does not mean 1M combat troops. For every front line troop you have 3-4 troops for logistical support, training, maintenance, maintaining bases, recruiting, command and control etc.

Considering Russia has its troops spread out over so much territory and are now mobilizing the military for martial law, the 250k troops in Ukraine could realistically be stretching them very thin at their current manpower level.
Of course, but my point is that Russia's vast trained/semi-trained reserves would be mobilized next, not untrained civilian "volunteers" mentioned in the twitter OP.
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GarryowenAg
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In reply to TheCougarHunter • 1:20p, 3/6/22
AG
TheCougarHunter said:
74OA said:
TRM said:
Russia's military has over 1M active-duty personnel and 2M more in its reserves. Only a fraction is in Ukraine. Not sure why Moscow would have a military manpower problem that required civilian mobilization.


1M personnel does not mean 1M combat troops. For every front line troop you have 3-4 troops for logistical support, training, maintenance, maintaining bases, recruiting, command and control etc.

Considering Russia has its troops spread out over so much territory and are now mobilizing the military for martial law, the 250k troops in Ukraine could realistically be stretching them very thin at their current manpower level.
Also, don't forget that we constantly active, mobilize, and deploy our national guard and reserve forces all the time in conjunction with the active component.
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TRM
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In reply to 74OA • 1:22p, 3/6/22
AG
It didn't say civilian.
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1:28p, 3/6/22
AG
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1:29p, 3/6/22
AG
Remember Moody's has Russia's bond rating as just above a junk bond.

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Ag In Ok
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In reply to TRM • 1:37p, 3/6/22
AG
TRM said:


Is that even possible?
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1:45p, 3/6/22
AG
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