Would this lunatic, with the bulk of Russians against his war, and with his military failures on the battle field, consider firing a "dirty nuke" of his own from the land of Ukraine at his own land in an attempt to regain the support of his people AND to start WW3?

Putin has to have the story lines in place he is going to use with the Russian public to justify the casualties and military action if he has to negotiate a settlement instead of absorbing all of the Ukraine.

I think widespread discontent will occur in 2 waves. I will be watching what happens when the Russian financial markets finally reopen. There will be another wave of discontent when the soldiers involved in the conflict return home and tell all their family members how incompetently the war was conducted.

I would not want to be in the military high command if there is a negotiated settlement. Putin is going to scapegoat them and tell the Russian public that Russia was failed by its generals. He may even tag them with the massive defense spending theft that has been occurring. He will make a massive public spectacle of purging them out of the military.

Fitch said:

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1. Russia is effed
a. In Ukraine
b. In Syria
c. In Chechnya
d. At home
2. Nuclear Option
a. Not even sure if arsenal has been kept up and functions.
b. Not sure the command procedures are functional
c. Thinks someone will not let it happen
d. Does not think Putin wants to die, as evidenced by his fear of having people close
3. In the best circumstance (they took over Kiev in 3 days) they were still going to have a hard time.
4. Intelligence failures
a. were not told about this
b. told to file reports
c. Told "details don't matter" (i.e make it pro Russian)

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I asked this yesterday and not sure if anyone answered, but for real, how do we know their nuclear arsenal is operational?

Red Pear Realty said:

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Fitch said:

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1. Russia is effed
a. In Ukraine
b. In Syria
c. In Chechnya
d. At home
2. Nuclear Option
a. Not even sure if arsenal has been kept up and functions.
b. Not sure the command procedures are functional
c. Thinks someone will not let it happen
d. Does not think Putin wants to die, as evidenced by his fear of having people close
3. In the best circumstance (they took over Kiev in 3 days) they were still going to have a hard time.
4. Intelligence failures
a. were not told about this
b. told to file reports
c. Told "details don't matter" (i.e make it pro Russian)

---

I asked this yesterday and not sure if anyone answered, but for real, how do we know their nuclear arsenal is operational?

---

Would need to go look at their last successful SBLM or ICBM test. Any one know?

Then there are so many other factors beyond that.

BD88 said:

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Many will laugh at this “equipment” being sent in by #Russia, but think again.

I see vehicle assets that are hard to ID as military ones. It’ll be just as easy for Russian soldiers to put on civvies and conduct saboteur ops..#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar pic.twitter.com/95wju0u3No

— Countermeasure (@thecmeasure) March 6, 2022

Similar to what was posted earlier…

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Will they remove the "V" "Z""O" from those vehicles?

Red Pear Realty said:

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Fitch said:

---

1. Russia is effed
a. In Ukraine
b. In Syria
c. In Chechnya
d. At home
2. Nuclear Option
a. Not even sure if arsenal has been kept up and functions.
b. Not sure the command procedures are functional
c. Thinks someone will not let it happen
d. Does not think Putin wants to die, as evidenced by his fear of having people close
3. In the best circumstance (they took over Kiev in 3 days) they were still going to have a hard time.
4. Intelligence failures
a. were not told about this
b. told to file reports
c. Told "details don't matter" (i.e make it pro Russian)

---

I asked this yesterday and not sure if anyone answered, but for real, how do we know their nuclear arsenal is operational?

---

We don't. The point here is, neither does Putin.

Seems like their delivery systems can do the job.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russia-test-launches-ballistic-and-cruise-missiles-11645271129

BD88 said:

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Rubio active this morning…

#Russia spent 8 missiles on a singe airport in #Vinnytsya #Ukraine and reportedly completely destroyed it

They know you can’t send fighter jets to Ukraine if they don’t have somewhere to land & operate them from pic.twitter.com/rf3CHnQvJh

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 6, 2022

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I don't think UKR would want to fly from there anyway - too close to the action. It'd have to be further west closer to Lviv. That's one less airport that the Russians could have flown to for resupply. I wonder if Russia expected to take Gostomel quickly and use that airport for resupply rather than using the long convoy.

Red Pear Realty said:

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Seems like their delivery systems can do the job.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russia-test-launches-ballistic-and-cruise-missiles-11645271129

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How old are those videos and pictures? Seems like a creative editing job to me.

You have to love these people!!!

Posted something like this yesterday.

Yet more evidence that #Russia is running out of Precision Guided Munitions (PGMs) for it's aircraft and possibly running low on Kalibir Cruise Missiles as well. They are reverting to deploying very outdated Tochka-U missiles against some targets in #Ukraine. https://t.co/l0EOU43vNA

— OSINT-Eye (@OSINT_Eye_) March 6, 2022

⚠️ Confirmed: Network data show a loss a connectivity to the network serving Vodafone in #Energodar, southeast #Ukraine, where users report disruption to mobile services as Russian forces move to occupy #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

📰 Background: https://t.co/S0qJQ7CbNv pic.twitter.com/jzumr9lip8

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) March 6, 2022

#Russian authorities are preparing to carry out a provocation near the Ukrainian border by shelling residential areas, the National Security and Defense Council of #Ukraine says pic.twitter.com/haYYCbfvBV

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 6, 2022

Ag In Ok said:

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Rossticus said:

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Russian elements landed near #Voznesensk, 4 Russian helicopters involved. Heavy fighting reported from the town. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/CcMYcQKdDJ

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) March 5, 2022

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The Ukes need a division plus sized force in this area. Right?

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Seems the Russian forces within the circle have a long narrow supply line to maintain.

htownag10 said:

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BREAKING 🚨 US Secretary Blinken: The US has given a “green light” to NATO members if they choose to provide Ukraine with fighter jets.

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) March 6, 2022

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After randomly claiming Ukraine was working on a nuclear weapon (in the leakiest of countries), now Russia 's @mod_russia comes up with something even less plausible: they "found evidence" Ukraine and USA wee developing weaponized plague bacteria at a super secret lab near Kyiv.

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 6, 2022

A source tells me that the Russian Kalibr missile attack on Vinnitsia was launched from the Black Sea, and partly passed through the airspace of Transnistria. Eight missiles were fired at the airport there, leaving it completely destroyed.

— Bryce Wilson (@brycewilsonAU) March 6, 2022

htownag10 said:

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BREAKING 🚨 US Secretary Blinken: The US has given a “green light” to NATO members if they choose to provide Ukraine with fighter jets.

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) March 6, 2022

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I'm wondering where they'd be able to operate from. Russia hit another base today/yesterday with missiles.

So will Polish pilots have to fly the 29's into Ukraine then find a way back, or will Ukrainian pilots have to find a way to Poland to pick them up and fly them back?

Probably the latter and (pure speculation) I wouldn't be surprised if there are Ukrainian pilots in Poland already getting familiarized with the Polish Fulcrums which likely have various differences from the Ukrainian models.

SPSAg05 said:

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So will Polish pilots have to fly the 29's into Ukraine then find a way back, or will Ukrainian pilots have to find a way to Poland to pick them up and fly them back?

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The pilots will have to go to Poland and then go back to Ukraine and fly missions from there.

SPSAg05 said:

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So will Polish pilots have to fly the 29's into Ukraine then find a way back, or will Ukrainian pilots have to find a way to Poland to pick them up and fly them back?

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I believe Ukrainian pilots are already in Poland, they have been waiting for several days waiting on the planes that were promised last week that never came.

Ukrainian pilots can get to Poland fairly easily. Highly doubt that Poland would flip the jets on as that would have their pilots directly involved

Approximately 30 minutes ago TV Tower in Kharkiv was stuck, resulting is disruptions in broadcasting. This is part of Russia’s targeting of information capabilities.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) March 6, 2022

So... uh... What happens if the Uke pilot, en route from Poland, is engaged by a Russian aircraft?

Does that become a sortie that was initiated from Poland?

If it happens in Poland's airspace, that is an act of war by Russia against Poland. Once they cross it into Ukraine, it is fair game

Drone image reportedly from Mariupol. The city is burning down and under siege by Russian forces. pic.twitter.com/O2afAGkAhP

— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) March 6, 2022

Correct. But what's the difference between that and Uke pilots just flying missions from Poland? In either case, it's an engagement by an aircraft that took off from a Polish base.