***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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RebelE Infantry
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Ag In Ok said:

Has the eastern Uke army pushed to cross to the western bank of the DNeiper river?


The last I saw was that the Russians were trying to encircle them in the Donbas area. It's a long way for them to go trying to pull off a fighting retreat. I'm not sure what the current situation is though.
SwigAg11
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Irish 2.0 said:

I really hope the snipers are targeting officers


I think they are as best they can based on previous posts of Russian commanders being killed.
TheEternalPessimist
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TRM said:


Anyone who doesn't see this as ALSO being, in part, a civil war as well, does not understand the ethnic division in Ukraine that is very real and does exist - particularly southeast of country.
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
jabberwalkie09
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GAC06 said:

The Debt said:

Quote:

Is this just throwing stuff on the wall time? You are seeing a war in real time, where Russia is unprepared. Please tell me an instance where human nature you throw in the "B" team.

As for DOD logistics, the Russian's couldn't hold our jock.

I guess it's not common knowledge, so let me explain it to you. During the cold war the west had intel on the quality of equipment in case things got hot. All the satellite states had 3rd and 4rh rate equipment, and tons of it. They saved their best equipment (tanks/jets) for Russia proper.

The idea behind this is that when nato invades, nato will send their best, just like you suggest. The best will grind through substandard equipment. They will put thousands of miles and hours on the shiny new equipment, causing erosion and maintenance, and by the time the allies get to Russia, the Soviets unleash fresh equipment that was tactically comparable, but with less wear.

I was not surprised when we saw 30year old tanks and trucks with half a tank of gas being thrown at Ukraine. Its consistent with their m.o.

Plus you have to remember Russians play chess from age 5. Do you lead with a rook, or with a pawn? Pawns, in this war, probe enemy positions, flush them out, Ukrainians throw the kitchen sink at the pawns, then a queen shows up and they are all fked.


Except they are using their newest stuff, and their elite units.
At the start of this, we saw a lot of older systems. The TOS's and Grad platforms were there too of cours, but we saw older armor like T-72's and T-80's that have been through a few modernizations at this point. It wasn't until more recently that T-90's and units with AK-12'a started popping up.
CondensedFogAggie
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There's an Instagram account of what seems to be commentary from various soldiers in the Ukraine, including western volunteers. Which is very raw


https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/


Some entries

Quote:

"Day 3 of combat and still alive, man. This is intense stuff. An ambush earlier destroyed several vehicles, tanks, and other materials they have been using.

Progress is being made, as well as losses. To any volunteers coming, probably a one way ticket, dude. This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. The next 5 minutes isn't even guaranteed. Don't come here thinking you'll stack bodies because you won't. These aren't dirt farmers with 50 year old AK's.

You'll get humbled to real, REAL combat and violence real quick. This isn't a game. I fired more rounds here in 2 days than 4 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a game, and this is not fun. Choose carefully before you decide to be a hero."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 26th, 2022.
aTmAg
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If Russia is really playing their pawns first, then no wonder they are embarrassing themselves. They are too stupid to realize that strategies that work in chess don't work in war.
ABATTBQ11
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RebelE Infantry said:

bangobango said:

RebelE Infantry said:

rathAG05 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.


So give the Russians whatever they want for having the balls to invade a sovereign country because they had the gall to exercise self-determination?

Yeah, no. **** Russia. They've made their bed. Let them die in it. If that means the average Russian loses everything they have and their store shelves are empty, so be it. They brought this on themselves by not learning anything from the days of the Soviet Union. JFC their entire government imploded and was exposed as a giant corrupt charade and here they are, buying whatever line the leftovers of that same government are feeding them. They deserve the economic ****storm that's coming.
jabberwalkie09
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RebelE Infantry said:

bangobango said:

RebelE Infantry said:

rathAG05 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.

Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?
The Debt
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GAC06 said:

The Debt said:

Quote:

Is this just throwing stuff on the wall time? You are seeing a war in real time, where Russia is unprepared. Please tell me an instance where human nature you throw in the "B" team.

As for DOD logistics, the Russian's couldn't hold our jock.

I guess it's not common knowledge, so let me explain it to you. During the cold war the west had intel on the quality of equipment in case things got hot. All the satellite states had 3rd and 4rh rate equipment, and tons of it. They saved their best equipment (tanks/jets) for Russia proper.

The idea behind this is that when nato invades, nato will send their best, just like you suggest. The best will grind through substandard equipment. They will put thousands of miles and hours on the shiny new equipment, causing erosion and maintenance, and by the time the allies get to Russia, the Soviets unleash fresh equipment that was tactically comparable, but with less wear.

I was not surprised when we saw 30year old tanks and trucks with half a tank of gas being thrown at Ukraine. Its consistent with their m.o.

Plus you have to remember Russians play chess from age 5. Do you lead with a rook, or with a pawn? Pawns, in this war, probe enemy positions, flush them out, Ukrainians throw the kitchen sink at the pawns, then a queen shows up and they are all fked.


Except they are using their newest stuff, and their elite units.

Where did I say the queen wasnt on the board?

You are presuming the Russian losses are the best stuff and I just refuted the idea that they led with their best.

I would warn you guys, dont believe anything you hear on TV or see on twitter. This thread is filled with "omg news about javelins and trucks" at least half of it has been manufactured to make ukraine look competent and Russia incompetent.

You are seeing it for public consumption for the sake of a narrative, a narrative someone is pushing.
GAC06
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They kicked the war off with a heloborne assault of an airfield outside Kiev. They were trying to go fast, and actually use maneuver warfare. Only after that got crushed are they slogging along and internet experts are trying to claim that was the plan all along
ttu_85
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Beat40 said:

wangus12 said:

Mule said:

aggiehawg said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.
Or there is further fractioning into more independent sovereign states like what happened the last time?

We (the West) missed our opportunity when Gorbachev did the right thing and brought the communist experiment to an end. We did not support (get involved enough) to ensure that democratic rule was being established on as many levels as possible. The old cronies and Putin stepped into the power vacuum and the rest is history.

We may get a second chance. Let's see how this plays out and demand more from our leaders. The world may not survive Putin 2.0 let alone Putin 1.0.
I will say I think the younger Russian has much more exposure to to the West via technology. We do have a chance if Putin is ousted


Part of the problem is Microsoft just pulled out of Russia. Other tech companies have as well. Soon that tech we could each out to the younger generation will stop working and you lose that avenue or communication.
This is a flawed perspective. At best such a situation would be of limited duration. Open source systems alone are very powerful and easy to implement. China has already cuts its dependency on American Big Tech. For that matter so has a bunch of Conservatives. The Server infrastructures is this one big remaining question. mark.
bangobango
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CondensedFoggyAggie said:

There's an Instagram account of what seems to be commentary from various soldiers in the Ukraine, including western volunteers. Which is very raw


https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/


Some entries

Quote:

"Day 3 of combat and still alive, man. This is intense stuff. An ambush earlier destroyed several vehicles, tanks, and other materials they have been using.

Progress is being made, as well as losses. To any volunteers coming, probably a one way ticket, dude. This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. The next 5 minutes isn't even guaranteed. Don't come here thinking you'll stack bodies because you won't. These aren't dirt farmers with 50 year old AK's.

You'll get humbled to real, REAL combat and violence real quick. This isn't a game. I fired more rounds here in 2 days than 4 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a game, and this is not fun. Choose carefully before you decide to be a hero."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 26th, 2022.

damn
jabberwalkie09
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GAC06 said:

They kicked the war off with a heloborne assault of an airfield outside Kiev. They were trying to go fast, and actually use maneuver warfare. Only after that got crushed are they slogging along and internet experts are trying to claim that was the plan all along
IIRC that's true to old Soviet doctrine of relying heavily on helicopters?
BusterAg
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TheEternalPessimist said:

TRM said:


Anyone who doesn't see this as ALSO being, in part, a civil war as well, does not understand the ethnic division in Ukraine that is very real and does exist - particularly southeast of country.
So, we should just give New Mexico and Texas south of Laredo to Mexico, then, right? To avoid something like this in the U.S.?

Are you familiar WHY there is such a strong influence of Russian culture in Western Ukraine?
Htownag11
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TRM said:


Shoot hiM!
74OA
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hbtheduce said:

aggiehawg said:

BusterAg said:

Irish 2.0 said:



Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.
Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices
RebelE Infantry
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jabberwalkie09 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

bangobango said:

RebelE Infantry said:

rathAG05 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.

Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?


Not my compromise to make, but if the alternative is utter destruction with the same end result, I'd probably think long and hard about taking it.
ttu_85
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aTmAg said:

If Russia is really playing their pawns first, then no wonder they are embarrassing themselves. They are too stupid to realize that strategies that work in chess don't work in war.
In WW2 The Soviets had something called "punishment units." People the Stalin gov wanted to eliminate. They were used as cannon fodder. China did the same in Korea . They'd get them high then have them charge American lines which had quad .50 AAA guns converted from anti-air to anti infantry. The results were devastating.

It used to be a common way the commies got rid of undesirables--aka free thinking types.
CondensedFogAggie
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Some more entries from https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/ in case folks don't use social media


Quote:

"I will confirm. I was not in danger. I did see rockets. Hundreds of them fly through the sky in such big numbers it was frightening. It makes me wonder what else they will use.

In the moment I feared for my life, but the rockets went right over us to positions behind. The noise of them was huge. It was like someone crushing metal in your ears.

Men from behind came to join us that evening who were in the middle of it. One of them told me so many rockets hit the ground that all he could see was nothing because his eyes shook inside his head."
- Ukrainian Soldier. Invasion of Ukraine. March 3rd, 2022
Quote:

"During the second day of fighting in Kyiv, a mother with her 2 sons were looking for shelter. They got caught in the crossfire, 2 of my friends sprinted towards them as the rest of us provided suppressive fire. Each one picked up a kid and brought them to a safer place whilst the mother waited in cover.

One of them came back to bring the mother to safety, he got shot in the leg. He stood back up and brought the mother to her kids. When he returned, just right in front of us he got shot again this time fatally.

After the fighting was over we went looking to see if the mother and kids were still there and they were. Sitting in a corner of a room holding each other, the mother started crying and blamed herself that one of ours got killed.

We comfort her and told her it wasn't her fault. The kids gave all of us a hug and then I started crying. As I'm becoming a father it was a very hard moment for me."
- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 28th, 2022.
Quote:

"Day 4 of combat for us. To say we are exhausted is the ******* understatement of the century. I think we've slept 15 hours if that. Finally got a bit of a break. Sitting here looking at my hands and just now realized how burned and cut up they are.

Everyone is chainsmoking and taking it all in. Everyone who survived that is. Constant, unrelenting combat of this magnitude is a nightmare of which I don't think anyone who isn't 95 years old or here can comprehend. I'd suck a d*ck for a flight out of here tomorrow.
No, I'd suck 50."
- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. March 1st, 2022.
Quote:

"My friend wrote me he is serving near *******, in the regiment. Oh what horror. He said 70 percent. 70 percent are dead. (Allegedly) Their unit has three and a half thousand. 70 percent is already dead. F*ck, do you understand how many corpses there are f*ck.

This is f*cked boys, they're about to check (kill) our whole army, these ******* (redacted) (derogatory term for Ukrainians). Can you imagine whats going to ******* happen? F*ck. They're not gonna conscript us pensioners but the kids and young ones will, you cannot imagine what is happening.

He (Putin) is talking mighty about our army, what ******* army f*ck. Army is not ready at all, these boys have never fought before. It is complete ass, do not watch the (Russian State) news, its complete bull***** Complete bull*****"
- Russian civilian. Invasion of Ukraine. March 2nd, 2022.
GE
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RebelE Infantry said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

bangobango said:

RebelE Infantry said:

rathAG05 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.

Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?


Not my compromise to make, but if the alternative is utter destruction with the same end result, I'd probably think long and hard about taking it.
Are you if Russian lineage or did you live there or something? Just seems you are rooting for them to win.
The Debt
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bangobango said:

CondensedFoggyAggie said:

There's an Instagram account of what seems to be commentary from various soldiers in the Ukraine, including western volunteers. Which is very raw


https://www.instagram.com/battles.and.beers/


Some entries

Quote:

"Day 3 of combat and still alive, man. This is intense stuff. An ambush earlier destroyed several vehicles, tanks, and other materials they have been using.

Progress is being made, as well as losses. To any volunteers coming, probably a one way ticket, dude. This isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. The next 5 minutes isn't even guaranteed. Don't come here thinking you'll stack bodies because you won't. These aren't dirt farmers with 50 year old AK's.

You'll get humbled to real, REAL combat and violence real quick. This isn't a game. I fired more rounds here in 2 days than 4 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan. This is not a game, and this is not fun. Choose carefully before you decide to be a hero."

- Western Volunteer. Invasion of Ukraine. February 26th, 2022.

damn

So an operator volunteers and he says he isnt stacking bodies.

Yet people on here think the Ukrainian army is competently defending against russians who cant tie their own boots.

Someone here is lying. And it probably isnt the veteran.
GAC06
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jabberwalkie09 said:

GAC06 said:

They kicked the war off with a heloborne assault of an airfield outside Kiev. They were trying to go fast, and actually use maneuver warfare. Only after that got crushed are they slogging along and internet experts are trying to claim that was the plan all along
IIRC that's true to old Soviet doctrine of relying heavily on helicopters?


My point is they led with their best
12th Man Stan Account
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SpreadsheetAg said:

Robk said:



Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...




From a few pages ago, but wanted to address this really quick.
SpreadsheetAg, I think you are confusing the Baltics & the Balkans (I do the same all the time).
Here are the Baltic States. Belarus likely wants to share a port with the Ruskies at St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad.



Worst case, they try to covertly pull off a coup d'etat in Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania to install friendlier regimes. They wouldn't dare engage these NATO countries directly.
RebelE Infantry
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AG


Broad overview of the battlefield as it stands. This account has been putting out some good quality maps and updates on the "big picture" as it relates to the Russian attack.
TRM
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jabberwalkie09
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RebelE Infantry said:

jabberwalkie09 said:


Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?


Not my compromise to make, but if the alternative is utter destruction with the same end result, I'd probably think long and hard about taking it.

You're essentially playing the role of the decision maker in this theoretical aren't you? Why not answer the question?

Personally, I find that line of thinking to be a very western way of thinking. I think a country that has been and is being actively invaded by the neighboring country that used to control it under the heel of a boot has a different outlook here. My experience with having met people who lived under the Soviet state or satellite republics gives me a different impression.
AvidAggie
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RebelE Infantry said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

bangobango said:

RebelE Infantry said:

rathAG05 said:

RebelE Infantry said:

LostInLA07 said:

That's already happening. O&G is their last source of outside cash but the impact to everyday Russians from the current sanctions will be substantial, particularly in the cities where many of their citizens are accustomed to daily interaction with western people, products and tech.

The iPhone they are currently holding is likely the last one they will ever have. Most of their apps don't work anymore. Eventually the russian stock market will have to reopen and anyone with capital in that market is going to take crushing losses that they will likely never recover from.

Frankly, the biggest risk here is that we inadvertently re-create a post WW1 Germany and end up with a population in Russia that hates us because of the sanctions imposed by the west. They'll kick out Putin but who knows what the sentiment will be when they are figuring out who the replacement will be. It could be another militaristic nationalist who rallies a desperate and humiliated population.


I'm afraid this is exactly what we're hurtling headlong towards and no one seems to be interested in talking about it. Private corporations are going far beyond the official sanctions and only making this even more likely.


Yeah, but what choice does the global community have? If Putin is unwilling to relent and pull out, and we are unwilling to directly engage, I don't see another option. We can't blame ourselves for the actions of an evil dictator. This totally sucks, but what he is doing is devastating.


You pressure Zelensky to come to the table for a negotiated peace to end a war he can't possibly win.
And how do you do that? How do you apply more pressure on him than what he is dealing with already? That man is ready to die to defend his country and its freedom.


First of all you stop giving him truckloads of weapons so that he can stop feeding his people into a meat grinder. Then you find a way to structure a peace where Russians strategic interests are addressed in exchange for easing of sanctions. Otherwise it's just the west using Ukraine as cannon fodder for a proxy war against Russia and that's the last thing we should want.

Strategic interests of Russia at this point include but are not limited to: new government in Ukraine, demilitarized Ukraine, effectively control of Donbas region, and Ukraine never joining NATO.

This is supposed to be an acceptable compromise to you?


Not my compromise to make, but if the alternative is utter destruction with the same end result, I'd probably think long and hard about taking it.

So let's have Russia take over every country on earth not named China or in NATO. Got it
jabberwalkie09
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AG
GAC06 said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

GAC06 said:

They kicked the war off with a heloborne assault of an airfield outside Kiev. They were trying to go fast, and actually use maneuver warfare. Only after that got crushed are they slogging along and internet experts are trying to claim that was the plan all along
IIRC that's true to old Soviet doctrine of relying heavily on helicopters?


My point is they led with their best
Ah, I understand what you're meaning is now. Their troops the led with, the VDV.
TRM
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FriscoKid
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Quote:

"My friend wrote me he is serving near *******, in the regiment. Oh what horror. He said 70 percent. 70 percent are dead. (Allegedly) Their unit has three and a half thousand. 70 percent is already dead. F*ck, do you understand how many corpses there are f*ck.

This is f*cked boys, they're about to check (kill) our whole army, these ******* (redacted) (derogatory term for Ukrainians). Can you imagine whats going to ******* happen? F*ck. They're not gonna conscript us pensioners but the kids and young ones will, you cannot imagine what is happening.

He (Putin) is talking mighty about our army, what ******* army f*ck. Army is not ready at all, these boys have never fought before. It is complete ass, do not watch the (Russian State) news, its complete bull***** Complete bull*****"
- Russian civilian. Invasion of Ukraine. March 2nd, 2022.
Yeah, it sounds like it's going great for Russia.
MeKnowNot
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Why are the Russian troops so active during the day?

I thought that modern military forces were well equipped with night vision. Is this not the case?
Solo Tetherball Champ
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TRM said:



Counter attack or counter offensive?

Those are two different concepts.
GAC06
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MeKnowNot said:

Why are the Russian troops so active during the day?

I thought that modern military forces were well equipped with night vision. Is this not the case?


A modern military should also have reliable secure communications. The Russians apparently lack that as well.
hbtheduce
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74OA said:

hbtheduce said:

aggiehawg said:

BusterAg said:

Irish 2.0 said:



Russia having to sell their oil at massive discount to get it out
The American people need to boycott Shell gasoline stations.
Actually, this is a good thing. Forcing them to sell at steep discounts (losing the large profit they were expecting) leads to less production from Russia if the profit margin isn't there. Costs more to extract that they can get on the market.

When we were energy independent the prices went way down but ours was by oversupply. Their discounts are necessary to move any product at all. Big difference.

A $23 deduct at $110 does not dent their profits at all. Russia's break evens are probably well below $30/bbl, They are just fine at $80.

Now it is less money than would be expected for the possible war machine. But compared prices pre-conflict, the deduct isn't even that heavy.
It's not just a matter of being profitable, it's how much profit is needed to balance a producer's national budget. Russia is so dependent on energy revenues it currently needs a minimum of ~$70bl and high export volume to avoid drastic cuts to national spending and hurting people's standard of living. I imagine recouping the billions lost on this war and the sanctions hit to volume will drive its break even point much closer to $100bl in coming years.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/120221-russia-opec-seen-moving-closer-on-fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices


Russia isn't Saudi. It hasn't hooked their citizens on government handouts nearly to the degree. Their populace aren't a bunch of spoiled oil princes. They will beat their populace into submission and be just fine with cuts.
TRM
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