***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,636,702 Views | 47866 Replies | Last: 14 hrs ago by EastSideAg2002
GAC06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 10:49a, 3/4/22
AG
All I do is Nguyen said:
SpreadsheetAg said:
All I do is Nguyen said:
ATX_AG_08 said:
This is HUGE regardless of whatever misinformation is coming out. If Russia is willing to admit to at least 2100 dead, then it is much worse than that.
It's huge from an American / Western standpoint, but not so much to Russian Generals. They don't have our same view of casualties.

We know:
1. Russian tactics (and soviet before that) commit their conscripts and old equipment to fight first
2. Russian generals won't balk at these numbers, they will just keep feeding the war effort with more personnel and equipment from stores until they overwhelm or wear down the defenders

Now they probably were surprised by the resistance and the technology being thrown at them, but that was them sticking their hat up on a bayonet and seeing where the shooting is coming from and what is being shot at them.
So Russia uses 2nd tier machinery and soldiers first? Why does that not make a lot of sense to me? I would think you would want a mix of top tier soldiers with everyone else. I have ZERO military or tactical experience so I am just going off what makes sense to me, a civilian.


That theory is looking more like an excuse for Russia looking pretty incompetent. Russia apparently thought they could sweep through the Chernobyl exclusion zone and with the aid of seizing the airport at Hostomel with elite forces in a heliborne assault, quickly seize Kiev.

However their elite airborne troops got routed at the airport by Ukraine's reaction force stationed at Kiev for that very purpose. The main body from the west has since bogged down. They are apparently having major supply and/or morale problems and likely both since those problems contribute to each other. This is obvious not just by the sheer quantity of abandoned equipment, but by the quality. Top-end tanks, APC's with the latest stuff on them like anti-IED tech, the best tactical anti aircraft systems Russia has.
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
TheCougarHunter
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to RikkiTikkaTagem • 10:50a, 3/4/22
AG
RikkiTikkaTagem said:
All I do is Nguyen said:
SpreadsheetAg said:
All I do is Nguyen said:
ATX_AG_08 said:
This is HUGE regardless of whatever misinformation is coming out. If Russia is willing to admit to at least 2100 dead, then it is much worse than that.
It's huge from an American / Western standpoint, but not so much to Russian Generals. They don't have our same view of casualties.

We know:
1. Russian tactics (and soviet before that) commit their conscripts and old equipment to fight first
2. Russian generals won't balk at these numbers, they will just keep feeding the war effort with more personnel and equipment from stores until they overwhelm or wear down the defenders

Now they probably were surprised by the resistance and the technology being thrown at them, but that was them sticking their hat up on a bayonet and seeing where the shooting is coming from and what is being shot at them.
So Russia uses 2nd tier machinery and soldiers first? Why does that not make a lot of sense to me? I would think you would want a mix of top tier soldiers with everyone else. I have ZERO military or tactical experience so I am just going off what makes sense to me, a civilian.


You value all lives equally that serve our military so it wouldn't make sense. The Russians:

A. Don't value all lives equally
B. Don't have enough top tier equipment to equip their whole army

so they have significant tiers in their military.

From a strategic point it makes sense, you have old equipment that is still functional and lethal just sitting around. Instead of letting it go, man it with people you consider second class citizens and deplorables and go soften up the enemy forces. Whatever they kill, great. If your own soldiers die, who cares. You didn't like them anyway and the gear they lost was about to become obsolete anyway.


This. They're sacrificing conscripts and old equipment to find the enemy and assess their weak points.

Remember the Soviets lost close to 10 million troops in WW2, 5-10k is nothing.
Reply Quote
1
GAC06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TheCougarHunter • 10:52a, 3/4/22
AG
They're losing a ton of their best stuff. And this isn't the Soviet army. Losing 10k in a week when you needed 4+ months to assemble 190k on your own border is very significant.
Reply Quote
17
SpreadsheetAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to dtkprowler • 10:55a, 3/4/22
AG
dtkprowler said:
Bayraktar!


Must be reposted... very catchy tune!

Reply Quote
22
Htownag11
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Eliminatus • 10:56a, 3/4/22
AG
Eliminatus said:
Decay said:
Thanks y'all. Last question, is the Javelin really a 280/300 kind of weapon? If it's smaller than the TOW is it more anti-BMP and less anti-tank?


It really is that good. The advanced tracking system on it was absolute cutting edge when it was introduced and still top notch today. There are a few things that can interfere with it but if the gunner has a solid lock and touches it off, it is almost guaranteed. I gotta say, I am surprised there were 20 misses. I'm guessing it was more physical factors than anything directly related to the missile tracking itself.

Source: was a Javelin gunner
Thats a pretty good source
Reply Quote
16
RebelE Infantry
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wangus12 • 10:57a, 3/4/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Quote:
There are seasoned combat veterans who survived the worst of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, etc. all saying they have never seen anything like this and it is warfare on a level never before.
This is the 2nd time I've seen that said. What makes this one so much different than previous?


Probably because it's two modern professional armies going at it.
Reply Quote
35
Robk
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:57a, 3/4/22


Our reply to the Baltic/port statement of Putin?

Fixed mixed up Baltic/Balkan error
Reply Quote
4
2 edits
Eliminatus
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to wangus12 • 11:00a, 3/4/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Quote:
There are seasoned combat veterans who survived the worst of Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, etc. all saying they have never seen anything like this and it is warfare on a level never before.
This is the 2nd time I've seen that said. What makes this one so much different than previous?


The pacing and the scale of it. My unit was reckoned one of the hardest fought American units in all of '08. We saw a LOT of action......for the time period and place. We fought small unit conflicts though. This is a true war of fire and maneuver with armored units and large formations. We squabbled with maybe a few dozen at any one time at most. And that was very rare in itself. Mostly just squad on squad stuff.

The Ukes are fighting an actual army, and everything that entails. That makes a huge difference. We hunted lone snipers and IED triggermen. They are hunting armored columns.
Reply Quote
36
GAC06
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Robk • 11:03a, 3/4/22
AG
Robk said:


Our reply to the Balkins/port statement of Putin?


Baltic, not Balkans
Reply Quote
3
PJYoung
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:21a, 3/4/22
AG


Quote:
The overall assessment at this point by US and other NATO-nation observers is that despite almost a year's worth of preparation by the Russian armed forces that had been massing at several points along the Ukraine border, the invasion is a "disaster and a borderline failure," as one former US military officer, now working as a civilian contractor in Poland, told Breaking Defense.

Now, on the seventh day of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as additional columns of Moscow's military vehicles with what are described as "more battle-ready units" are rolling towards the Ukrainian capital, two questions seem to be emerging.

First, how it is that the vaunted and feared Russian military, the focus of so many NATO wargames and planning sessions, has been unable to overwhelm the significantly smaller Ukrainian defenders? And second, faced with opposition that didn't quickly roll over, what scenario is now likely to come from the forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin?
Quote:
Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) sources state that multiple Russian units were already out of petrol by the third day of the war and were running low on ammunition as well. In Kharkiv, groups of as many as ten demoralized Russian soldiers are reported to have surrendered to the first, lone representative of the Ukrainian forces they encounter.
Quote:
The Kalibr is not the only program in trouble. One Ukrainian intelligence officer tells Breaking Defense that there are "numerous shortages of [Russian] weapon systems. The famous KBM plant in Tula and other factories controlled by longtime Putin allies the Rothenberg brothers are unable to physically fulfil orders for infantry weapons and ammunition.
Quote:
"Weapons that are officially on the books and should be available for delivery to active-duty units are missing and the next production runs will be complete only in three to four months," the officer said. Even that estimate assumes that the raw material inputs have not been pilfered as well and are still available if not, the time frame could be considerably longer.
Reply Quote
6
PJYoung
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:24a, 3/4/22
AG


Quote:
The 25-year-old has been speaking regularly to her mother, who lives in Moscow. But in these conversations, and even after sending videos from her heavily bombarded hometown, Oleksandra is unable to convince her mother about the danger she is in.

"I didn't want to scare my parents, but I started telling them directly that civilians and children are dying," she says.

"But even though they worry about me, they still say it probably happens only by accident, that the Russian army would never target civilians. That it's Ukrainians who're killing their own people."

It's common for Ukrainians to have family across the border in Russia. But for some, like Oleksandra, their Russian relatives have a contrasting understanding of the conflict. She believes it's down to the stories they are told by the tightly-controlled Russian media.

Quote:
Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

"It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them," says Oleksandra.

"My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: 'Russians came to liberate you. They won't ruin anything, they won't touch you. They're only targeting military bases'."

While we were interviewing Oleksandra, the shelling went on. The internet connection was weak, so we had to exchange voice messages.

"I've almost forgotten what silence sounds like. They're shelling non-stop," she said.

Quote:
Mykhailo, a well-known Kyiv restauranteur, didn't have the time or inclination to watch Russian TV coverage of the invasion.

When shelling of Ukraine's capital started, he and his wife were concentrating on how to protect their six-year-old daughter and baby son.

At night their children woke up at the sound of explosions and couldn't stop crying. The family made the decision to move to the outskirts of Kyiv and then flee abroad.

They travelled to Hungary, where Mykhailo left his wife and children and came back to Western Ukraine to help the war effort.

He was surprised not to have heard from his father, who works at a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. He called his father and described what was happening. His father replied that this wasn't true; there was no war and - in fact - Russians were saving Ukraine from Nazis.

Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.
Reply Quote
12
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PJYoung • 11:25a, 3/4/22
AG
Quote:
"Weapons that are officially on the books and should be available for delivery to active-duty units are missing and the next production runs will be complete only in three to four months," the officer said. Even that estimate assumes that the raw material inputs have not been pilfered as well and are still available if not, the time frame could be considerably longer.
Ghost weapons.
Reply Quote
7
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PJYoung • 11:26a, 3/4/22
AG
Should be a lesson for all on media manipulation and that it can happen anywhere...and does.
Reply Quote
36
txags92
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 11:28a, 3/4/22
AG

[There is a warning in the edit of the OP. -Staff]
Reply Quote
4
Edited by Staff
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:30a, 3/4/22
AG
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
Reply Quote
8
cjo03
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PJYoung • 11:32a, 3/4/22
AG
PJYoung said:


Quote:
The 25-year-old has been speaking regularly to her mother, who lives in Moscow. But in these conversations, and even after sending videos from her heavily bombarded hometown, Oleksandra is unable to convince her mother about the danger she is in.

"I didn't want to scare my parents, but I started telling them directly that civilians and children are dying," she says.

"But even though they worry about me, they still say it probably happens only by accident, that the Russian army would never target civilians. That it's Ukrainians who're killing their own people."

It's common for Ukrainians to have family across the border in Russia. But for some, like Oleksandra, their Russian relatives have a contrasting understanding of the conflict. She believes it's down to the stories they are told by the tightly-controlled Russian media.

Quote:
Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

"It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them," says Oleksandra.

"My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: 'Russians came to liberate you. They won't ruin anything, they won't touch you. They're only targeting military bases'."

While we were interviewing Oleksandra, the shelling went on. The internet connection was weak, so we had to exchange voice messages.

"I've almost forgotten what silence sounds like. They're shelling non-stop," she said.

Quote:
Mykhailo, a well-known Kyiv restauranteur, didn't have the time or inclination to watch Russian TV coverage of the invasion.

When shelling of Ukraine's capital started, he and his wife were concentrating on how to protect their six-year-old daughter and baby son.

At night their children woke up at the sound of explosions and couldn't stop crying. The family made the decision to move to the outskirts of Kyiv and then flee abroad.

They travelled to Hungary, where Mykhailo left his wife and children and came back to Western Ukraine to help the war effort.

He was surprised not to have heard from his father, who works at a monastery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia. He called his father and described what was happening. His father replied that this wasn't true; there was no war and - in fact - Russians were saving Ukraine from Nazis.

Mykhailo said he felt he knew the power of Russian propaganda, but when he heard it from his father, he was devastated.

my friend with parents in Russia just sent this article too.

she is stateside and talks to her parents most nights - and there is growing tension as they don't believe her because her news is "polluted by the West"
Reply Quote
10
tk111
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to YouBet • 11:33a, 3/4/22
AG
YouBet said:
Should be a lesson for all on media manipulation and that it can happen anywhere...and does.
It's a testament to the ignorance, complacency, and general lack of critical thinking of the masses. You'd think that the bulk of people would catch a clue when most media outlets outside of a select few are shut down, your ISP is not able to reach giant international social media platforms, etc... but they just...don't.
Reply Quote
7
txags92
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno • 11:33a, 3/4/22
AG
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
Hmmm...that might be where Putin has a problem. The difficulty with trying to throw arms dealers in jail is that they have alot of money and know alot of people with weapons who can be paid to do bad things.
Reply Quote
3
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno • 11:34a, 3/4/22
AG
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
Reply Quote
27
tk111
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 11:36a, 3/4/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
There were some folks here suggesting this early on and it's looking more and more like that could be a significant part of the truth.
Reply Quote
4
Not a Bot
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:39a, 3/4/22
AG


Former ambassador to Russia. Good analysis. His thinking is the grandmas and grandpas will believe what the media tells them. The younger generation in Russia is more skeptical of media and knows it is state controlled.
Reply Quote
8
Ag In Ok
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:46a, 3/4/22
AG
Does anyone have the link to the former CIA agent commenting on what he thinks Russia's next moves are?
Reply Quote
1
wangus12
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to cjo03 • 11:47a, 3/4/22
AG
Definitely sounds like most over the age of 40 are going with state media in Russia.
Reply Quote
TheEternalPessimist
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PJYoung • 11:48a, 3/4/22
PJYoung said:

Here is the problem ---- the BBC itself is part of the global media that feeds the interest of the Soros/WEF types. This story is probably true..... but how much is propaganda designed at playing on Western emotions and thinking and how much is true? Anyways -- we should all be questioning everything the main stream media feeds us. So much lies and gaslighting.

That being said....

I can attest myself to the divide this woman in the story says. I have two friends that are from the region in conflict who live in Dallas. The husband is Moldovan/Soviet era born and was a Russian citizen but is now U.S. citizen. The wife is a Russian citizen still and in line for US citizenship. Both of them have family divided and that reside in Ukraine and Russia and Belarus. Ethnically, the husband is Ukrainian, Polish, Russian, and Moldovan. The wife is Uzbek and Russian. So their extended families have distinctive POVs on this mess that are run the course of everything from pro-Putin, to pro-Russian Empire, to pro-Ukraine, to pro-Zelensky, to simply anti-War.
There are even Ukrainians in their family that live in Russia that hate the EU and the West (hard to believe I know!) . It is not this clear cut thing the media seems to want to paint it to be.

Let me be clear - Putin is a mad man and needs to be stopped. But Putin going away will not solve the question of what international alignment Ukraine will fall into. This question will persist past this conflict, assuming we don't go full nuclear. And I still contend that the West has lost much of it's moral authority when it embraces the totalitarian behavior we have seen around COVID the last 2 years AND when taking into account the West/EU embrace of legalized infanticide and the promotion and celebration of deviancy.

For my friend, his parents (who are Russian and Moldovan citizens) are stuck in Kiev and are now running out of food. They live about 1.5 miles south of Independence Square close to the soccer stadium. We are praying for their safety and for this war to end as soon as possible.
--

"The Kingdom is for HE that can TAKE IT!" - Alexander
Reply Quote
13
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to tk111 • 11:48a, 3/4/22
AG
tk111 said:
aggiehawg said:
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
There were some folks here suggesting this early on and it's looking more and more like that could be a significant part of the truth.
If he's as isolated as purported, this absolutely could be the reality.
Reply Quote
4
IslanderAg04
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Not a Bot • 11:49a, 3/4/22
Captain Positivity said:


Former ambassador to Russia. Good analysis. His thinking is the grandmas and grandpas will believe what the media tells them. The younger generation in Russia is more skeptical of media and knows it is state controlled.



Sounds like sanctions are hitting gaming. Want to piss off 30 and below. Block WoW, CoD and other online games.
Reply Quote
5
Irish 2.0
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to YouBet • 11:50a, 3/4/22
YouBet said:
tk111 said:
aggiehawg said:
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
There were some folks here suggesting this early on and it's looking more and more like that could be a significant part of the truth.
If he's as isolated as purported, this absolutely could be the reality.
Well his generals have been selling **** out from under his nose to foreign warlords for years too
Reply Quote
14
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to YouBet • 11:51a, 3/4/22
AG
YouBet said:
tk111 said:
aggiehawg said:
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
There were some folks here suggesting this early on and it's looking more and more like that could be a significant part of the truth.
If he's as isolated as purported, this absolutely could be the reality.
Same thing happened to us with the Afghan "Army" being 300,000 strong. We were paying 100s of millions for a ghost army that only existed on paper.
Reply Quote
19
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiehawg • 11:53a, 3/4/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
YouBet said:
tk111 said:
aggiehawg said:
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Sounds like some people were making money on the side selling arms on the black market not thinking they would actually have to deliver to the motherland and got caught.

Gulags are going to be extra full once they track this down to who is responsible..
The military Putin sees on paper is not the military he actually has.
There were some folks here suggesting this early on and it's looking more and more like that could be a significant part of the truth.
If he's as isolated as purported, this absolutely could be the reality.
Same thing happened to us with the Afghan "Army" being 300,000 strong. We were paying 100s of millions for a ghost army that only existed on paper.
Yep, no doubt. Crazy.
Reply Quote
2
deddog
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 11:54a, 3/4/22
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...



Thanks!

Feels like 1917 all over again.
Reply Quote
2
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ag In Ok • 11:56a, 3/4/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
Does anyone have the link to the former CIA agent commenting on what he thinks Russia's next moves are?
Whatever the plan originally was, not sure Putin has the men and materiel to pull it off.
Reply Quote
1
ATX_AG_08
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ag In Ok • 11:56a, 3/4/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
Does anyone have the link to the former CIA agent commenting on what he thinks Russia's next moves are?


This one?

Reply Quote
2
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ag In Ok • 11:57a, 3/4/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
Does anyone have the link to the former CIA agent commenting on what he thinks Russia's next moves are?
From Ash Carter and Alex Younger (MI6):

  • Moldova, Belarus, Kazakhstan
  • Belarus will essentially absorb into Russia on its own
  • Moldova and Kazakhstan on menu before he leaves office; Putin has told us this
  • Baltics are a distant goal of Putin's

That last bullet is a pipe dream now that his military has been exposed.

These comments were made prior to most of what we've read on here.
Reply Quote
LMCane
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to PJYoung • 12:00p, 3/4/22
PJYoung said:
Red Pear Realty said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

Someone with more knowledge than me speak, but these Pantsirs, if used to their full extent and not just blown up, would be incredibly valuable for their IFF (identity friend or foe) systems. Like possibly help end the war valuable.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/06/19/libya_a_catastrophe_for_russias_pantsir_s1_air_defense_system_115394.amp.html






Quote:
Vis-a-vis those tires on that Pantsir…

That's a very high-value weapons system. As in, 'effing vital to your air defense umbrella.

If you're not making sure that that vehicle has good tires on it, what are you prioritizing?

The fact that one of those, apparently intact, is sitting out there for some Ukrainian farmer to make off with…? That's flatly terrifying to whoever is running that ADA umbrella, for oh-so-many reasons. First, the system is now unavailable. Second, and probably most important, the COMSEC and IFF data may still be on that thing, intact. That means that Ukraine now has a means of getting inside the Russian ADA networks, and wreaking havoc on anything flying. Hell, with the right guy doing the hacking, I wouldn't doubt that they couldn't get in and change IFF id codes such that Russian aircraft were now identified as hostile across the network, which would be 'effing incredibleThey'd be able to watch as the Russian ADA shot down their own aircraft.

If any vehicle was a burnt-out hulk, it should have been that one. Dear God, the freakin' potential there in terms of just COMSEC having to be redone across the entire force, based on the presumption it's been compromised. I would lay you long odds that whoever abandoned that thing intact that way probably didn't "Z" out all the systems…

This is, by the way, an SF teams fantasy accomplishment: Capturing something as networked as this thing is, intact. The fact that it's sitting there on Twitter? Russian COMSEC security guys should be filling their pants, right about now, and so should the ADA bubbas.

I cannot emphasize enough what a big deal an intact Pantsir with its COMSEC and IFF would be, to the right people. If the Ukrainians can't take advantage of something like that falling into their laps? They deserve to lose, frankly.

That picture caused literal jaw drop, when I saw it. The implications, past the tires? LOL… Mind-boggling. That's galactic-level military incompetence, that is. You do not abandon or allow to be abandoned an asset like that.

I gotta wonder where the hell the adult supervision is, in all of this. Is there any?


so whoever is typing that is claiming that capturing only one Pantsir allows the entire army to be compromised for air defense?!?

if that is the case why wouldn't we just capture one Pantsir from every enemy we have?
Reply Quote
2
YouBet
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to LMCane • 12:02p, 3/4/22
AG
LMCane said:
PJYoung said:
Red Pear Realty said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

Someone with more knowledge than me speak, but these Pantsirs, if used to their full extent and not just blown up, would be incredibly valuable for their IFF (identity friend or foe) systems. Like possibly help end the war valuable.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/06/19/libya_a_catastrophe_for_russias_pantsir_s1_air_defense_system_115394.amp.html






Quote:
Vis-a-vis those tires on that Pantsir…

That's a very high-value weapons system. As in, 'effing vital to your air defense umbrella.

If you're not making sure that that vehicle has good tires on it, what are you prioritizing?

The fact that one of those, apparently intact, is sitting out there for some Ukrainian farmer to make off with…? That's flatly terrifying to whoever is running that ADA umbrella, for oh-so-many reasons. First, the system is now unavailable. Second, and probably most important, the COMSEC and IFF data may still be on that thing, intact. That means that Ukraine now has a means of getting inside the Russian ADA networks, and wreaking havoc on anything flying. Hell, with the right guy doing the hacking, I wouldn't doubt that they couldn't get in and change IFF id codes such that Russian aircraft were now identified as hostile across the network, which would be 'effing incredibleThey'd be able to watch as the Russian ADA shot down their own aircraft.

If any vehicle was a burnt-out hulk, it should have been that one. Dear God, the freakin' potential there in terms of just COMSEC having to be redone across the entire force, based on the presumption it's been compromised. I would lay you long odds that whoever abandoned that thing intact that way probably didn't "Z" out all the systems…

This is, by the way, an SF teams fantasy accomplishment: Capturing something as networked as this thing is, intact. The fact that it's sitting there on Twitter? Russian COMSEC security guys should be filling their pants, right about now, and so should the ADA bubbas.

I cannot emphasize enough what a big deal an intact Pantsir with its COMSEC and IFF would be, to the right people. If the Ukrainians can't take advantage of something like that falling into their laps? They deserve to lose, frankly.

That picture caused literal jaw drop, when I saw it. The implications, past the tires? LOL… Mind-boggling. That's galactic-level military incompetence, that is. You do not abandon or allow to be abandoned an asset like that.

I gotta wonder where the hell the adult supervision is, in all of this. Is there any?


so whoever is typing that is claiming that capturing only one Pantsir allows the entire army to be compromised for air defense?!?

if that is the case why wouldn't we just capture one Pantsir from every enemy we have?
Are you saying we should just fly into China, land, take the equivalent and fly out?

Cake walk!
Reply Quote
18
First Page Last Page
Page 229 of 1368 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.