***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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No Spin Ag
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In reply to rgag12 • 8:11a, 3/4/22
rgag12 said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.


This is a calculated statement just like the "putting all the nuclear units on high alert" statement was.

He wants to push the buttons of the west to get a reaction.


God help them if we ever do.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Irish 2.0
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8:15a, 3/4/22
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aggiehawg
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In reply to wangus12 • 8:16a, 3/4/22
AG
wangus12 said:
Robk said:
rgag12 said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.


This is a calculated statement just like the "putting all the nuclear units on high alert" statement was.

He wants to push the buttons of the west to get a reaction.
of course it is more saber rattling, but it is still escalating tensions.
Remember that Belarusian tac map. Maybe Belarus gets the western half of Ukraine down to Odessa.
Or, they get part of Lithuania or Estonia?

Quote:
MOSCOW, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko expects Russia to build a new Baltic Sea port for exports of Belarusian potash which were hit by Western sanctions, he said on Friday after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The two leaders met as Russia held military exercises in Belarus as part of a buildup of troops near Ukraine that has prompted Western warnings of an imminent Russian invasion. Moscow denies any such plan and says such warnings are dangerous.
Quote:
Belarus' state-owned Belaruskali is the world's second largest producer of the crop nutrient potash. Washington imposed sanctions on it in 2021 after Lukashenko crushed protests following elections in 2020 and then black-listed its export arm Belarus Potash Company (BPC).

"The president of Russia gave an order, I asked for the Russians to help us .... so that we .... could build our own port near St Petersburg and tranship millions of tonnes of cargo there. The orders were given in my presence to start this construction immediately," Lukashenko said.
Quote:
Landlocked Belarus previously relied on shipments of 12.5 million tonnes of potash a year from the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda in Lithuania. Vilnius decided to halt the use of its railway for Belarus exports of the crop nutrient from Feb. 1.

Minsk said earlier this month that it diverted the exports to Russian ports, and Kremlin has said that the "issue is on the agenda". read more

However, Russia's Baltic Sea ports, according to industry sources, do not have enough free capacity to handle BPC's 12.5 million tonnes a year, and it is impossible to accommodate the shipments immediately.

Belarusian representatives "are negotiating with different (port) terminals, but so far we do not see their supplies there. It will probably take some time, because logistics is a complicated process, it takes months, if not years," an industry source told Reuters.
Link

Or Lukashenko is just a nut and a useful idiot for Putin.
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ttu_85
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In reply to rgag12 • 8:17a, 3/4/22
rgag12 said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.


This is a calculated statement just like the "putting all the nuclear units on high alert" statement was.

He wants to push the buttons of the west to get a reaction.
Its official. Those two idiots have lost their minds. Poland has a long memory as do the Baltic states. All NATO members. This idiot from Belarus needs to be red dotted. He is nuttier than Putin.
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to Robk • 8:18a, 3/4/22
AG
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...



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ttu_85
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:19a, 3/4/22
aggiehawg said:


Quote:
Landlocked Belarus previously relied on shipments of 12.5 million tonnes of potash a year from the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda in Lithuania. Vilnius decided to halt the use of its railway for Belarus exports of the crop nutrient from Feb. 1.

Minsk said earlier this month that it diverted the exports to Russian ports, and Kremlin has said that the "issue is on the agenda". read more

However, Russia's Baltic Sea ports, according to industry sources, do not have enough free capacity to handle BPC's 12.5 million tonnes a year, and it is impossible to accommodate the shipments immediately.

Belarusian representatives "are negotiating with different (port) terminals, but so far we do not see their supplies there. It will probably take some time, because logistics is a complicated process, it takes months, if not years," an industry source told Reuters.
Link

Or Lukashenko is just a nut and a useful idiot for Putin.
He is. Read his history. Putin seems to take his ques from this power hungry moron. Been head of state since 1996. And lots of his people hate him.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 8:21a, 3/4/22
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...



Interesting but Belarus won't be able to hold it as an occupying force. That's a large swath of territory and many borders.
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wangus12
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:21a, 3/4/22
AG
Maybe, but that means war on the Baltic states, which means NATO. At this point it seems somewhat obvious that NATO would probably whoop that ass in a conventional war.
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LMCane
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In reply to htownag10 • 8:21a, 3/4/22
htownag10 said:


Here you go for all you guys drooling over a no fly zone
1000 hours: "let's discuss a no-fly zone"

1003 hours: "we have decided against a no-fly zone"
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:22a, 3/4/22
AG
Probably true, but as a proxy to Russia, they would surely get Moscow support militarily to hold it.
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EMY92
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In reply to rgag12 • 8:23a, 3/4/22
AG
rgag12 said:
Irish 2.0 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Irish 2.0 said:



Money starting to dry up


I'll be honest, weaponizing contracts with private companies or people seems like a bad plan.


It's up to the Russian people to stop this at this point. Apply pressure anywhere and everywhere. I don't think Russians will go as easily into despair as Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and N. Korea have.


I don't think people realize how brainwashed the common people of Russia are. Imagine if the only news available to you was NBC and CNN.

The Russian people believe they are being treated unfairly by the west for a war against corrupt government thugs holding the Ukrainian people hostage. If anything worsening conditions is going to make them more fanatical in support of their country, not overthrow it.
There is something to this. However, even for the old folks without internet access, in this day and age, you can't prevent information from flowing unless the country is completely cutoff like North Korea. Information will get in and the truth will start to expand. This will increase the pressure on the Putin regime.
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All I do is Nguyen
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In reply to ATX_AG_08 • 8:26a, 3/4/22
ATX_AG_08 said:
This is HUGE regardless of whatever misinformation is coming out. If Russia is willing to admit to at least 2100 dead, then it is much worse than that.
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
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LMCane
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:26a, 3/4/22
aggiehawg said:
SpreadsheetAg said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...



Interesting but Belarus won't be able to hold it as an occupying force. That's a large swath of territory and many borders.


look at the second map and Zaporozyhe is half way up the Dnieper

the real threat to the Ukes is not just a nuclear meltdown, but the fact the Russkies are going to cut the country in two and isolate all the Uke forces to the East of the river.

then it's game over.

I stated a week ago that the Uke forces needed to regroup along the west side of the Dnieper with stronger internal lines of defense and use the river as the new boundary.

looks like it is now too late for them to withdraw without being surrounded
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ttu_85
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 8:27a, 3/4/22
SpreadsheetAg said:
Robk said:


Unless he plans on giving them Kaliningrad, this would seem not good.
Check out these maps for more interesting information on NATO and the positioning of Russia and Belarus:
https://geoawesomeness.com/top-14-maps-charts-explain-nato/
(from 2017, so may be a little dated)

If Belarus wants a port, that means they have designs on Moldova and the western portion of Ukraine down to the Baltics. Russia would be happy with this as it puts a western buffer of New Belarus between NATO and Russia proper.

I could see Belarus Military pushing west and south along the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania through Moldova (capturing Lviv and Chisinau) and into the far Southwest of Ukraine to the small port towns of Bilhorod and Zatoka...



Great stuff Spreadsheet !!!. This may explain Belarus's motivations, sort of. That idiot, LukashenkoF* cant see a logistical nightmare in the making. Belarus has only 9.4 million people. No way they have the manpower of industrial infrastructure to hold their ambitions, unless Russia is prepared to breast feed them.

Eastern Europe has once again lost its mind !!
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to EMY92 • 8:28a, 3/4/22
AG
EMY92 said:
rgag12 said:
Irish 2.0 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Irish 2.0 said:



Money starting to dry up


I'll be honest, weaponizing contracts with private companies or people seems like a bad plan.


It's up to the Russian people to stop this at this point. Apply pressure anywhere and everywhere. I don't think Russians will go as easily into despair as Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and N. Korea have.


I don't think people realize how brainwashed the common people of Russia are. Imagine if the only news available to you was NBC and CNN.

The Russian people believe they are being treated unfairly by the west for a war against corrupt government thugs holding the Ukrainian people hostage. If anything worsening conditions is going to make them more fanatical in support of their country, not overthrow it.
There is something to this. However, even for the old folks without internet access, in this day and age, you can't prevent information from flowing unless the country is completely cutoff like North Korea. Information will get in and the truth will start to expand. This will increase the pressure on the Putin regime.
However, the people may be so brainwashed that they treat western news sources and social media like we do the NORK Twitter account...

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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 8:35a, 3/4/22
AG
All I do is Nguyen said:
ATX_AG_08 said:
This is HUGE regardless of whatever misinformation is coming out. If Russia is willing to admit to at least 2100 dead, then it is much worse than that.
It's huge from an American / Western standpoint, but not so much to Russian Generals. They don't have our same view of casualties.

We know:
1. Russian tactics (and soviet before that) commit their conscripts and old equipment to fight first
2. Russian generals won't balk at these numbers, they will just keep feeding the war effort with more personnel and equipment from stores until they overwhelm or wear down the defenders

Now they probably were surprised by the resistance and the technology being thrown at them, but that was them sticking their hat up on a bayonet and seeing where the shooting is coming from and what is being shot at them.
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Ag_07
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 8:38a, 3/4/22
AG
Yes agree it's huge either way but keep in mind IIRC a casualty is not a death.
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Ag87H2O
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 8:41a, 3/4/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
TRM said:


He looks very tired
He looks like a man who is realizing that life as he once knew it is over. Even if he wins, he and his family will never be completely safe. They will need 24/7 security and still have to sleep with one eye open for the rest of their lives - if they somehow manage to survive the war.

Agree with him or not, that's one courageous, committed patriot.

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docb
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 8:52a, 3/4/22
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
EMY92 said:
rgag12 said:
Irish 2.0 said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Irish 2.0 said:



Money starting to dry up


I'll be honest, weaponizing contracts with private companies or people seems like a bad plan.


It's up to the Russian people to stop this at this point. Apply pressure anywhere and everywhere. I don't think Russians will go as easily into despair as Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and N. Korea have.


I don't think people realize how brainwashed the common people of Russia are. Imagine if the only news available to you was NBC and CNN.

The Russian people believe they are being treated unfairly by the west for a war against corrupt government thugs holding the Ukrainian people hostage. If anything worsening conditions is going to make them more fanatical in support of their country, not overthrow it.
There is something to this. However, even for the old folks without internet access, in this day and age, you can't prevent information from flowing unless the country is completely cutoff like North Korea. Information will get in and the truth will start to expand. This will increase the pressure on the Putin regime.
However, the people may be so brainwashed that they treat western news sources and social media like we do the NORK Twitter account...

I think that people in Russia and Belarus know more than you think. They know that their leaders are totally corrupt but they don't feel there is much they can do about it. We have a restaurant that we frequent and one of the waitresses is from Belarus so we talk to her about her country and what is going on there since before all of this started. They do not like Lukashenko at all and know he is corrupt. His opposition has apparently been take out in the past. I could really tell she was genuinely worried about her parents when I asked how they were doing last evening. She said she had sent them some money yesterday but would really like them to come here. Her 16 year old son with dual citizenship has received a call to service by mail in Belarus. But this won't happen because he is here. Anyways, I feel for those people. I made her take $1000 yesterday to send to help out her parents. Hopefully with all the banking blocks she can still get it wired to Belarus. Her father makes $400 US dollars a month there. It's a terrible situation.
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Zobel
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 8:54a, 3/4/22
AG
Russia via oligarch proxies has been buying a lot of Swiss industrial and technological know how for twenty years… often through hostile takeovers backed by thinly veiled threats. They hate it.
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wangus12
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In reply to docb • 8:56a, 3/4/22
AG
Hell he lost the last election by a landslide and Putin did something to keep him in power
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JobSecurity
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8:59a, 3/4/22
AG
Seems to go against what was said yesterday. Just putting this out for optics I assume
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JobSecurity
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9:00a, 3/4/22
AG
I didn't see the over night but apologize if I missed it
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SidsBurnerAccount
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In reply to htownag10 • 9:04a, 3/4/22
htownag10 said:
For the fellow or the people who like to know what is up in the air that we know of (just the interesting ones)

2 B52s over germany
RC-135U Homer59 over romania
Rc-135w Rivet Jake12 over poland
Global Hawk over bulgaria headed NNE

Normally there are a few AWACS up but currently I don't see any on the map.

Also here is the disclaimer. NONE OF THIS MEANS WE ARE ATTACKING.
For those of us interested, but not knowledgeable about these, could you (or someone) give a brief description of their roles/uses? Thanks.
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G Martin 87
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In reply to JobSecurity • 9:05a, 3/4/22
AG
This seems like a more "rational" and effective Putin strategy than leaving Ukraine intact and occupying it. Break it up into smaller "countries" that cannot challenge Russia anymore. This could include portioning off part of western Ukraine to Belarus.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to G Martin 87 • 9:06a, 3/4/22
AG
G Martin 87 said:
This seems like a more "rational" and effective Putin strategy than leaving Ukraine intact and occupying it. Break it up into smaller "countries" that cannot challenge Russia anymore. This could include portioning off part of western Ukraine to Belarus.

I doubt Europe or anyone else beyond Russia recognizes them.
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Not a Bot
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9:06a, 3/4/22
AG
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G Martin 87
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 9:06a, 3/4/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
G Martin 87 said:
This seems like a more "rational" and effective Putin strategy than leaving Ukraine intact and occupying it. Break it up into smaller "countries" that cannot challenge Russia anymore. This could include portioning off part of western Ukraine to Belarus.

I doubt Europe or anyone else beyond Russia recognizes them.
Agreed, but unnecessary.
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one MEEN Ag
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9:07a, 3/4/22
AG
With all this russian air defense lying around I sure hope america has intelligence assets in Ukraine armed with thumb drives and large backpacks.

If America could get their hands on those air defense assets, it would be a generational impact on Russians to ever fight a modern air assault. How quickly could Russia replace all of their equipment with a whole new architecture? It would take a decade. And how well could a Russian general trust that their updates would plug all the holes the west could find?
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CharlieBrown17
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In reply to SidsBurnerAccount • 9:08a, 3/4/22
AG
B52s turn things into parts/pieces
RC variants are listening/ electronic warfare sensors
Global hawk is a giant drone that takes thousands of pictures each sortie
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Not a Bot
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9:09a, 3/4/22
AG


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CharlieBrown17
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In reply to JobSecurity • 9:10a, 3/4/22
AG
I'd bet the bigger concern is how the Intel was gathered.

Source typically drives a higher classification level way quicker than the actual info
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Touchless
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In reply to GAC06 • 9:11a, 3/4/22
AG
GAC06 said:
This is a TOW, which is a heavier missile, but the result is the same. Hit the ammunition and/or fuel inside, and the tank goes pop and the crew is mist.

I know absolutely nothing on how this stuff works, but a missle that is flying above a tank and then blowing it up is mind boggling to me. It doesn't even hit the tank. It just explodes when it's directly over the object it wants to blow up and somehow the explosive gets all of the energy and force going directly down onto the tank. Like, what? How? Crazy technology to me.
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DallasAg 94
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 9:13a, 3/4/22
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VaultingChemist
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In reply to JobSecurity • 9:14a, 3/4/22
AG
JobSecurity said:
Seems to go against what was said yesterday. Just putting this out for optics I assume
Allies did this in WWII after they broke Germany's Enigma transmission codes.

You don't want the enemy to understand what and how you know what you know.
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