If true, then the Soviet state will basically be resurrected. Not that there haven't been glimpses already.

OnlyForNow said:

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Is there nothing flying over Ukraine or nothing squawking?

Also, a c17 just took off from Rzeszow....

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Nothing is squawking and hasn't since Russia invaded. Transports have been in and out of neighboring countries. RC-135s patrol the Ukraine boarder and belarus boarder.

Have I covered it all? I watch this every single day. This is the longest a global hawk has been squawking and the furthest North one has been.

ATX_AG_08 said:

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Twenty-two #Russian tankers were captured. They came all the way from the Far East. pic.twitter.com/sho1qGGKMD

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 2, 2022

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Interesting. The Russians units in the far east tend to be some of their best in case the **** ever hit the fan with the Chinese.

It's pretty awesome to follow.

Why are we not seeing videos from Mariupol if it's actively being shelled right now? Is the communications shutdown that airtight?

jabberwalkie09 said:

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If true, then the Soviet state will basically be resurrected. Not that there haven't been glimpses already.

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Nope not the Soviet state, The Russian Empire.

RebelE Infantry said:

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Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Im not so sure that is really a fair analysis. Even if we discount the most of desertion and surrendering of Russians to the Ukrainians that have been claimed by the Ukrainian government, there's enough to suggest that the Russian offensive isn't going as well as this guy asserts. It took several days for RU forces to secure Kherson if we assume that they have at this point.

There's also plenty evidence out there of abandoned/disabled/out of fuel equipment to imply there are significant logistical problems that the Russians cannot support offensive operations of this size and are bogged down by operations from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and to some extent Sumy. I took away that the author largely ignores this in his analysis when he says that western intelligence, specifically the DoD, should not be so optimistic and that this isn't as disorganized as it appears.

Just my 2 cents on the article. YMMV.

Agthatbuilds said:

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Remarkable video circulating on Telegram. Ukrainians gave a captured Russian soldier food and tea and called his mother to tell her he’s ok. He breaks down in tears. Compare the compassion shown here to Putin’s brutality. pic.twitter.com/KtbHad8XLm

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 2, 2022

This is how you bring putin down.

---

So after watching that we know now that was indeed Russia's plan. To send in the old junky equipment with inexperienced soldiers.

Guess Putin didn't think the news would make it back home. HIm sacrificing young lives with junk support and arms.

Not a bad stratedgy if it was before the internet, social media and cell phones. But right now, not so much

Faustus said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/02/world/ukraine-russia-war

Quote:

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The U.N. General Assembly has adopted a resolution to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with 141 countries voting in favor, five voting against and 35 abstaining.

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As a practical matter this is just PR, but still useful. The Security Council is tasked with enforcement at the U.N., and Russia as a permanent Security Council member has what amounts to a permanent veto.

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Just updating the voting breakdown (same link):

Quote:

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The countries that voted against a U.N. resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine are Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria. Abstaining were 34 countries, including China, Iraq, Iran, India and Pakistan.

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I assume that means Kazakhstan abstained, which is pretty hilarious.

Bigfoot Is Real said:

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People on Twitter keep citing the Geneva Convention in regards to using POW videos. Any insight on this as Twitter people are wrong like 80% of the time?

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Article 13, but as usual, you are correct about Twitter...people are interpreting "protected against 'public curiosity'" out of context:


"Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity."

Most of the videos give an example of welfare; only some show insults/curiosity, and even those that I've seen are civilians doing the insulting.

No Spin Ag said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Remarkable video circulating on Telegram. Ukrainians gave a captured Russian soldier food and tea and called his mother to tell her he’s ok. He breaks down in tears. Compare the compassion shown here to Putin’s brutality. pic.twitter.com/KtbHad8XLm

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 2, 2022

This is how you bring putin down.

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That's what decency is. Something Putin and others know nothing about.

I needed to see this, thanks for sharing.

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they need to get the EU to offer $15,000 for each Russian surrendering and requesting asylum in the Eu

then send all their POWs into Poland

These heliborne operations are not particularly successful, not sure why Russia's VDV keeps repeating them. Small numbers of airborne troops easily become POWs. https://t.co/wgR1JasAy6

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 2, 2022

Beat40 said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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TRM said:

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Abandoned Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS. https://t.co/VhfZjim40l pic.twitter.com/ahacf8xJKW

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 2, 2022

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Unbelievable the arament being abandoned by the Russians. Assuming all they need is fuel and drivers, they are re-arming the Ukranians all by themselves.

No army with trained officers, good morale, and the will to win would walk away from equipment like that. At a minimum they would destroy it so it couldn't be used against them down the road.

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What's that saying about if it sounds too good to be true?

I'm super skeptical of all these Russian equipment being abandoned.

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Im all for the Ukraine but at the end of the day the logic needs to add up. IT's not.

Russian Forces have reportedly pushed into Mariupol City from the East and the West, Extremely Heavy Fighting is still ongoing involving Armored Vehicles, Artillery, and Ground Forces, the Russian Air Force also continues to Strike locations in and around the city.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 2, 2022

LMCane said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Remarkable video circulating on Telegram. Ukrainians gave a captured Russian soldier food and tea and called his mother to tell her he’s ok. He breaks down in tears. Compare the compassion shown here to Putin’s brutality. pic.twitter.com/KtbHad8XLm

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 2, 2022

This is how you bring putin down.

---

That's what decency is. Something Putin and others know nothing about.

I needed to see this, thanks for sharing.

---

they need to get the EU to offer $15,000 for each Russian surrendering and requesting asylum in the Eu

then send all their POWs into Poland

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And treat them well. We need to contrast ourselves from Putin. Demonize him to his own people.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

Im not so sure that is really a fair analysis. Even if we discount the most of desertion and surrendering of Russians to the Ukrainians that have been claimed by the Ukrainian government, there's enough to suggest that the Russian offensive isn't going as well as this guy asserts. It took several days for RU forces to secure Kherson if we assume that they have at this point.

There's also plenty evidence out there of abandoned/disabled/out of fuel equipment to imply there are significant logistical problems that the Russians cannot support offensive operations of this size and are bogged down by operations from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and to some extent Sumy. I took away that the author largely ignores this in his analysis when he says that western intelligence, specifically the DoD, should not be so optimistic and that this isn't as disorganized as it appears.

Just my 2 cents on the article. YMMV.

---

Agree with Jabber-

no way that Putin expected this kind of resistance from Zelensky and the Uke politicians in Kyiv

and that the Russkie tactics and doctrine would allow for small units to be sent piecemeal into cities and ambushes

I am sure that Putin counted on the first two days to have taken Kyiv and then believed the Ukes would start to lay down their arms around the country.

they are on to "plan b" which is: blast apart as much of Ukraine as you can

Ukrainian forces are taking some heavy losses in the Donbas. https://t.co/h3aAeXnvDM

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 2, 2022

U.S. views that Kherson remains contested, even though Russians claim to have taken it , U.S. official says.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 2, 2022

Htownag11 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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LostInLA07 said:

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Ukrainians don't seem like they want to leave any cities if they aren't Ukrainian.

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Yea I think this is a bad idea anyways. It would give Russia more power, it would shed Russia in a more positive spotlight PR wise that they went into a city and didn't hurt anyone, etc. Let them keep looking evil, have the world keep crashing their economy, let this keep dragging out until hopefully Russia citizens rise up or somebody takes out Putin.

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The complicated part of this is that it traded bad Russian PR for innocent lives. Not something to be taken lightly.

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I think Ukraine needs to turn their major cities into Russian graveyards if they are going to have any chance of success.

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Well for that to work best the cities need to be reduced to rubble. Dont know about you but if I was a Ukrainian I'd find either option sucks.

Agthatbuilds said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Read the article. Bunch of opinions giving too much credit to putin and Russia. Truth is in the middle somewhere.


The key to the decision of this invasion, which the article hinted at, was putin correctly calculated that the west would not go to war with Russia. He planned for everything else, except maybe the strength of resistance being put up by the ukes.

---

I think it's pretty spot on. Ukraine has a serious interest is shaping the narrative against Russia to garner Western support. Russia has no interest in shaping narratives. Thus, you see a lot of videos of Ukrainian heroism and Russian failures, but little to the contrary

Good article on the main thing I had been wondering about re: Russian tactics to start the invasion with limited air activity:

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force


RUSI: The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world's oldest and the UK's leading defence and security think tank. Our mission is to inform, influence and enhance public debate to help build a safer and more stable world.

*U.S. TO IMPOSE EXPORT CONTROLS TARGETING RUSSIA OIL REFINING

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2022

jabberwalkie09 said:

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RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

Im not so sure that is really a fair analysis. Even if we discount the most of desertion and surrendering of Russians to the Ukrainians that have been claimed by the Ukrainian government, there's enough to suggest that the Russian offensive isn't going as well as this guy asserts. It took several days for RU forces to secure Kherson if we assume that they have at this point.

There's also plenty evidence out there of abandoned/disabled/out of fuel equipment to imply there are significant logistical problems that the Russians cannot support offensive operations of this size and are bogged down by operations from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and to some extent Sumy. I took away that the author largely ignores this in his analysis when he says that western intelligence, specifically the DoD, should not be so optimistic and that this isn't as disorganized as it appears.

Just my 2 cents on the article. YMMV.

---

I think that's a very fair assessment. I just found it interesting because it gives a nice broad picture overview of the Russian attack.

I don't think we really know to what extent the logistics issues are slowing down the advances. A large part of that is because we obviously don't know the Russian war plan, outside of a purportedly captured map and US intel assessment. It's probably not going as well as they had planned for, but also probably not as bad as western media seems to be portraying.

TRM said:

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These heliborne operations are not particularly successful, not sure why Russia's VDV keeps repeating them. Small numbers of airborne troops easily become POWs. https://t.co/wgR1JasAy6

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) March 2, 2022

---

Kofman has been a worthwhile follow. I'm beginning to think/agree with him that someone in the command structure has a soft spot for their airborne/air assault guys. They're almost being used as if they're some magic key that will work no matter the situation. And this has been to their detriment.

ttu_85 said:

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Htownag11 said:

---

RebelE Infantry said:

---

IDaggie06 said:

---

LostInLA07 said:

---

Ukrainians don't seem like they want to leave any cities if they aren't Ukrainian.

---

Yea I think this is a bad idea anyways. It would give Russia more power, it would shed Russia in a more positive spotlight PR wise that they went into a city and didn't hurt anyone, etc. Let them keep looking evil, have the world keep crashing their economy, let this keep dragging out until hopefully Russia citizens rise up or somebody takes out Putin.

---

The complicated part of this is that it traded bad Russian PR for innocent lives. Not something to be taken lightly.

---

I think Ukraine needs to turn their major cities into Russian graveyards if they are going to have any chance of success.

---

Well for that to work best the cities need to be reduced to rubble. Dont know about you but if I was a Ukrainian I'd find either option sucks.

---

No doubt, they are in a bad situation. Having your country absorbed by Russia would also suck.

Doesn't help Russia has been almost completely cut off from the western world.

As with all wars, there's a war beyond the battlefield to shape a message. No doubt. And in today's world, it even more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff

But, having entire cities stand in the road to block a Convoy is hard to fake.

That said, the article is too generous to putin and discounts the ukes too heavily. Like I said above, I believe it to be somewhere in the middle.

Russian will eventually win this. They're just too big for the ukes to win on their own. That doesn't mean the Russians have been particularly great at execution.

RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

This analysis gets the facts right but reaches the wrong conclusions.

There are enough signs, even ignoring the obvious propaganda, that the invasion is going poorly to believe it's going poorly. But the author is correc that none of these issues change the fact that, militarily, it's inevitable that Russia will accomplish its strategic goals as long as they maintain their will to do so. They are struggling more than they or we thought, and hat tip to the Ukrainian for some of that, but they're still inexorably progressing toward their military goals.

But all of the reports on the Russian failures, including the DoD reports, are geared toward the propaganda war. Winning the propaganda battle, which we are dominating, rallies support from abroad and boosts Ukrainian morale, while also allowing more time for the sanctions to come into play and either hurt military efficiency further, or increase domestic pressure on Putin. With that in mind, the overly optimistic briefings from the DoD and reports from western media make a lot more sense. The author completely ignores this aspect, which is a pretty big omission.

2023NCAggies said:

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Agthatbuilds said:

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Remarkable video circulating on Telegram. Ukrainians gave a captured Russian soldier food and tea and called his mother to tell her he’s ok. He breaks down in tears. Compare the compassion shown here to Putin’s brutality. pic.twitter.com/KtbHad8XLm

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 2, 2022

This is how you bring putin down.

---

So after watching that we know now that was indeed Russia's plan. To send in the old junky equipment with inexperienced soldiers.

Guess Putin didn't think the news would make it back home. HIm sacrificing young lives with junk support and arms.

Not a bad stratedgy if it was before the internet, social media and cell phones. But right now, not so much

---

I seriously doubt Putin was briefed to that degree.

Instead, what we may be seeing seems more like a replay of Saddam and what he thought was a staunch Revolutionary Guard only to later find out the actual capabilities had been grifted away by the generals and other officers over the preceding decade. The Soviet military of the 80s is no more.

Russia for all practical purposes is a dictatorship but its population is far more exposed to the West since the fall of the Soviet Union. And they like their creature comforts as well. As those are taken away, they will become increasingly frustrated and angry. May be their anger is directed towards the West for denying them access? Maybe their ager is directed towards Ukraine? Or maybe their anger increasingly gets focused on Putin?

If the rumors of a possible declaration of martial law in Russia are true, then I think the perception is it is directed at Putin.

RebelE Infantry said:

---

jabberwalkie09 said:

---

RebelE Infantry said:

---

Here is a good quick write up on the overall strategic military situation. Yes it runs counter to the broad narrative, no it is not Russian propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

---

Im not so sure that is really a fair analysis. Even if we discount the most of desertion and surrendering of Russians to the Ukrainians that have been claimed by the Ukrainian government, there's enough to suggest that the Russian offensive isn't going as well as this guy asserts. It took several days for RU forces to secure Kherson if we assume that they have at this point.

There's also plenty evidence out there of abandoned/disabled/out of fuel equipment to imply there are significant logistical problems that the Russians cannot support offensive operations of this size and are bogged down by operations from Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and to some extent Sumy. I took away that the author largely ignores this in his analysis when he says that western intelligence, specifically the DoD, should not be so optimistic and that this isn't as disorganized as it appears.

Just my 2 cents on the article. YMMV.

---

I think that's a very fair assessment. I just found it interesting because it gives a nice broad picture overview of the Russian attack.

I don't think we really know to what extent the logistics issues are slowing down the advances. A large part of that is because we obviously don't know the Russian war plan, outside of a purportedly captured map and US intel assessment. It's probably not going as well as they had planned for, but also probably not as bad as western media seems to be portraying.

---

I got ya. I agree with his tactical analysis, but I don't think anyone would really disagree with that. The troop positioning prior to the invasion gave that impression. The RU drops in the western half of the country literally make no sense though. I don't think I've seen anyone really come up with an explanation for those.

We can really only see the logistical problems in Ukraine since there are more camera phones making these observations. However, I'd contend that this massive convoy coming down from Belarus and rate of progress is also indicative of issues, but the extent we don't know yet.

Kiev sirens blaring now..