***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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wangus12
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 8:20a, 3/1/22
AG
While I like that Russia is gonna be completely ****ed economically, I'm absolutely concerned that China is gonna **** us in the same manner pretty soon
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GarryowenAg
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 8:20a, 3/1/22
AG
AgLiving06 said:
I think they are trying to give Putin an out by trying to turn this from a negotiation with just Ukraine to the whole EU.

He can save face and say he accomplished his goals, and then extract something from the EU to call it a win.
I haven't thought about EU as an off-ramp. That would be one hell of an off-ramp.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 8:21a, 3/1/22
AG
AgLiving06 said:
I think they are trying to give Putin an out by trying to turn this from a negotiation with just Ukraine to the whole EU.

He can save face and say he accomplished his goals, and then extract something from the EU to call it a win.
And continue to have an open insurgency in Ukraine. The EU cannot afford to drop economic sanctions against Russia if a member state is invaded and occupied and they drop the sanctions after a few weeks or months. That's not a union at all.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aTmAg • 8:23a, 3/1/22
AG
aTmAg said:
JobSecurity said:
Looks like this was wrong yesterday
I think it's more likely that the rest of NATO threatened Poland out of it.

NATO has made it clear that Ukraine is on their own. Basically saying "Good luck dudes. Maybe we'll let you in NATO if you somehow pull this out."


Hopefully this is all kabuki theatre. If not Ukraine is done without direct air or missile attacks on russian vehicles. The promise to supply All the shoulder fired anti tank weapons in the world wont be enough to repel the russians.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to wangus12 • 8:25a, 3/1/22
wangus12 said:
While I like that Russia is gonna be completely ****ed economically, I'm absolutely concerned that China is gonna **** us in the same manner pretty soon
They can't really. They own too much of our debt and our trade with them accounts for ~20% of their GDP. They're not in nearly as good of a position to whether hard economic times like the US either. For as much of the stuff we rely on from China, they can't survive w/o our ag exports. Xi the Pooh is currently sitting at his desk re-evaluating China's next 20 years of moves with Russia ****ting the bed on their initial incursion and seeing all of western society turn against Russia in less than a day.
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GE
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 8:28a, 3/1/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
wangus12 said:
While I like that Russia is gonna be completely ****ed economically, I'm absolutely concerned that China is gonna **** us in the same manner pretty soon
They can't really. They own too much of our debt and our trade with them accounts for ~20% of their GDP. They're not in nearly as good of a position to whether hard economic times like the US either. For as much of the stuff we rely on from China, they can't survive w/o our ag exports. Xi the Pooh is currently sitting at his desk re-evaluating China's next 20 years of moves with Russia ****ting the bed on their initial incursion and seeing all of western society turn against Russia in less than a day.
What portion of our debt do they own? Last time I checked was maybe a year ago but it really wasn't that much
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txags92
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8:29a, 3/1/22
AG
Interesting move by the EU. Does this affect how their borders with Poland work? Can the refugees leaving Ukraine enter Poland without visa or any other papers now?
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benchmark
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:35a, 3/1/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
And continue to have an open insurgency in Ukraine. The EU cannot afford to drop economic sanctions against Russia if a member state is invaded and occupied and they drop the sanctions after a few weeks or months. That's not a union at all.
This. Fast forward 6 months and it's maximum sanctions, brutal occupation, and a bloody insurgency ... without any foreseeable off-ramp for either sanctions or withdrawal. Only a black swan event (i.e. palace coup) would change this. Unfortunately, the new normal and everyone loses.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:35a, 3/1/22
aggiehawg said:
FireAg said:
will25u said:
GarryowenAg said:
Haven't figured out how to post Twitter links on mobile app, but I just saw that the EU has accepted Ukraine's application for membership. Formal voting for membership takes place 4:30 local time ( 8:30am cst I believe)

Okay what does this REALLY mean? Let's say they are admitted to the EU in the next 48 hours…

Then what?
EU has no standing military but does have a common defense provision. That authorizes individual member states to use their militaries to assist another member.


Yep. Eu is not nato but to believe they'd let a fellow eu country be invaded and do nothing is nave.

As recently as a week ago I read an article about some EU countries pushing to stand up an EU army. This might be the thing that leads them to do that.

I get that the EU began as an economic union. But that's not what it is today (see- brexit)

The eu will defend a fellow eu member who is invaded.
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JobSecurity
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8:37a, 3/1/22
AG
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JobSecurity
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8:38a, 3/1/22
AG
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to GE • 8:40a, 3/1/22
AG
GE said:
Irish 2.0 said:
wangus12 said:
While I like that Russia is gonna be completely ****ed economically, I'm absolutely concerned that China is gonna **** us in the same manner pretty soon
They can't really. They own too much of our debt and our trade with them accounts for ~20% of their GDP. They're not in nearly as good of a position to whether hard economic times like the US either. For as much of the stuff we rely on from China, they can't survive w/o our ag exports. Xi the Pooh is currently sitting at his desk re-evaluating China's next 20 years of moves with Russia ****ting the bed on their initial incursion and seeing all of western society turn against Russia in less than a day.
What portion of our debt do they own? Last time I checked was maybe a year ago but it really wasn't that much


About as much as Japan does. It's not an insignificant amount, but it isn't as much as most people like to think. Maybe $2 trillion or so. A huge chunk of US debt is really just to ourselves in government securities owned by the government (IOU's) or unfunded liabilities (spending we've decided to make but don't have money for yet). Our debt situation isn't great, but it's not as bad as many like to make out.
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IDaggie06
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In reply to JobSecurity • 8:41a, 3/1/22
AG
JobSecurity said:
I have so many questions if this is true such as why are all these people trying to enter the city instead of leaving it?

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one MEEN Ag
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8:43a, 3/1/22
AG
Great video about Russia's motivations in Ukraine. Summary:
-Post USSR breakup saw russia very marginalized land wise.
-Buffer states keep going pro europe, bringing borders closer to strategic cities within russia
-Crimean offshore exclusive economic zone has huge gas reservoirs, Russia doesn't want Ukraine being a competing petrostate
-Ukraine has shut off the water to Crimea, making holding that port an expensive logistical problem
-Ukraine shale fields are suddenly near 'disputed' lands. Its a resource fight.
-Ukraine is the last major buffer that is 'undecided'. If Ukraine joins the west, NATO has a very easy launching point to jump into Russia, secure volvograd (river center that keeps oil flowing out of russia) and quickly move up to Moscow.
-Russian birth versus death rates are dismal. The Russian people are not having kids. Russia as a country will reduce in population over both the short and long term.

Now in a nuclear age, is anyone going to go siege Moscow and fight a land war in Russia? No. Does anyone within the Kremlin believe that? No.


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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 8:50a, 3/1/22
AG
Russia should be thinking, "If everyone is going pro-Europe, maybe we should do something different."
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JobSecurity
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 8:54a, 3/1/22
AG
This guy is on the ground there so it's definitely real. Couldn't tell you what they're doing. Resupply, trying to get people out, just moving within the city?
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JobSecurity
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8:55a, 3/1/22
AG
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JobSecurity
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8:58a, 3/1/22
AG
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 9:00a, 3/1/22
AG
one MEEN Ag said:
Great video about Russia's motivations in Ukraine. Summary:
-Post USSR breakup saw russia very marginalized land wise.
-Buffer states keep going pro europe, bringing borders closer to strategic cities within russia
-Crimean offshore exclusive economic zone has huge gas reservoirs, Russia doesn't want Ukraine being a competing petrostate
-Ukraine has shut off the water to Crimea, making holding that port an expensive logistical problem
-Ukraine shale fields are suddenly near 'disputed' lands. Its a resource fight.
-Ukraine is the last major buffer that is 'undecided'. If Ukraine joins the west, NATO has a very easy launching point to jump into Russia, secure volvograd (river center that keeps oil flowing out of russia) and quickly move up to Moscow.
-Russian birth versus death rates are dismal. The Russian people are not having kids. Russia as a country will reduce in population over both the short and long term.

Now in a nuclear age, is anyone going to go siege Moscow and fight a land war in Russia? No. Does anyone within the Kremlin believe that? No.



This video is great, thanks for posting.
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wbt5845
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In reply to AgsMyDude • 9:05a, 3/1/22
AG
That really was good - thank you. We tend to just villainize the other side. Smart people are sitting over there making what seem to them to be logical actions based on the info at hand. It is prudent for us to understand their motives as opposed to just demonizing them.
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Irish 2.0
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9:05a, 3/1/22
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All I do is Nguyen
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9:06a, 3/1/22
I just wanted to give a huge shoutout to all those whoa re keeping the rest of us updated on what's going on. It is truly appreciated
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
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Rapier108
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 9:07a, 3/1/22
JFABNRGR said:
aTmAg said:
JobSecurity said:
Looks like this was wrong yesterday
I think it's more likely that the rest of NATO threatened Poland out of it.

NATO has made it clear that Ukraine is on their own. Basically saying "Good luck dudes. Maybe we'll let you in NATO if you somehow pull this out."


Hopefully this is all kabuki theatre. If not Ukraine is done without direct air or missile attacks on russian vehicles. The promise to supply All the shoulder fired anti tank weapons in the world wont be enough to repel the russians.
There is another reason to consider. If they give them aircraft, where will they operate from?

Based in Ukraine, they're sitting ducks and would be used up within days.

Based in Poland or Romania, even if flown by Ukrainian pilots, then it would draw NATO into the conflict.

As long as Russia has pretty much air supremacy over Ukraine, a handful of fighter jets would not really do any good.
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ShotOver
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9:08a, 3/1/22
AG
Someone within the Russian hierarchy really needs to remove the threat to world peace....and soon.
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RebelE Infantry
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In reply to ShotOver • 9:10a, 3/1/22
AG
ShotOver said:
Someone within the Russian hierarchy really needs to remove the threat to world peace....and soon.


Something to consider is that the overwhelming likelihood is that you'll wind up with someone far worse or plunge a nuclear state spanning 2 continents into anarchy.
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TRM
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9:17a, 3/1/22
AG
One of the comms targets.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 9:17a, 3/1/22
All I do is Nguyen said:
I just wanted to give a huge shoutout to all those whoa re keeping the rest of us updated on what's going on. It is truly appreciated

And for keeping things on topic and removing all the side comments that aren't relevant.
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TRM
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9:18a, 3/1/22
AG
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Charpie
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9:20a, 3/1/22
AG
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TRM
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9:20a, 3/1/22
AG
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HTownAg98
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In reply to RebelE Infantry • 9:20a, 3/1/22
RebelE Infantry said:
ShotOver said:
Someone within the Russian hierarchy really needs to remove the threat to world peace....and soon.


Something to consider is that the overwhelming likelihood is that you'll wind up with someone far worse or plunge a nuclear state spanning 2 continents into anarchy.

I don't think that's the case here. Watching all the videos of Putin distancing himself from the rest of his leadership leads me to believe that he's the crazy one. You can see it in their faces, because they dare not speak out, and some of them have really bad poker faces.
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swc93
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In reply to txags92 • 9:23a, 3/1/22
AG
Poland announced early on that only Passports were required, no visas.
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TRM
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9:24a, 3/1/22
AG
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to Rapier108 • 9:26a, 3/1/22
AG
Rapier108 said:
JFABNRGR said:
aTmAg said:
JobSecurity said:
Looks like this was wrong yesterday
I think it's more likely that the rest of NATO threatened Poland out of it.

NATO has made it clear that Ukraine is on their own. Basically saying "Good luck dudes. Maybe we'll let you in NATO if you somehow pull this out."


Hopefully this is all kabuki theatre. If not Ukraine is done without direct air or missile attacks on russian vehicles. The promise to supply All the shoulder fired anti tank weapons in the world wont be enough to repel the russians.
There is another reason to consider. If they give them aircraft, where will they operate from?

Based in Ukraine, they're sitting ducks and would be used up within days.

Based in Poland or Romania, even if flown by Ukrainian pilots, then it would draw NATO into the conflict.

As long as Russia has pretty much air supremacy over Ukraine, a handful of fighter jets would not really do any good.

You're right, even with roadway operations they would be destroyed in short order either in the air or on the ground. Flying out of a NATO country is going to be a nonstarter for NATO. Poland I think would have been perfectly fine watching their old jets fly off to take it to the Russians, but Russia would then look at Poland as joining the conflict.

At this point, I'm thinking that all these supposed arms shipments from various countries will not get there to aid the Ukrainians in their fight. Not to mention that even all the AA and AT weapons won't mean much unless Ukrainians can actually counterattack and they're going to need armor and air assets for that to happen.
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TRM
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9:26a, 3/1/22
AG
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