So if it is true that the Russian military is undisciplined enough to fight, and are easily routed....

That is a bad look.

Seeing multiple reports of Russian military just leaving equipment and running. Ouch.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

Ag8556 said:

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If the Ukranians have the fight in them, they will move their official government farther west if Kiev is taken and continue fighting. The longer this drags out, the worse it is for Putin. There will be a morale hit to the Russians if the Ukranians drag this out after Kiev falls and are able to continue fighting.

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Hard agree. The Ukes have a lot of space. Maybe keep some forces in the capital to keep the Russians honest and pull everything else back to the west? Extend Russia and wear them down. Force Russia to expend more and more to keep up and much greater chances of outside help getting in and political relations to helpfully sway Russia in the end.

I can see both sides. Proverbial coin flip. Save the city or save your fighting forces to fight another day. Tough one

will25u said:

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So if it is true that the Russian military is undisciplined enough to fight, and are easily routed....

That is a bad look.

Seeing multiple reports of Russian military just leaving equipment and running. Ouch.

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Russia has forced conscription. With Russia's military adventures in more recent years, I'm not terribly surprised. I don't think there's as much belief in Russia as there was in "the cause" in the USSR.

Just my 2 cents.

I'm a logistics officer by trade. The thought of sustainment for an army without a road network available is almost impossible. Unless there's a POD (point of demarcation) available, the Russians are going to have to grind out a very long land route if they want to conquer Ukraine.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

I don't think the Russians are that great with logistics. The farther the Russians are pulled into Ukraine, the easier it will be for irregulars to attack resupply convoys coming in from the north towards Kiev. This is all predicated on the Ukes military not disintegrating.

Coworker lives in Kiev. Young family. Bunkered down and safe, but nervous.

Said Russians were within 100 miles of them earlier.

He's a tough dude, but this is a lot even for him. I could totally see him grabbing a rifle and going to work when the time comes.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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rgag12 said:

I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

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At that theoretical point, how would the current government flee?

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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rgag12 said:

I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

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All sorts of scenarios come to mind including those in which the government stays in Kiev and fights it out, or relocates west while leaving a strong stay-behind force in Kiev to engage in urban warfare, or both government and military leave to fight it out in the west, as just a few examples.

But I don't think either the fall of Kiev or its encirclement necessarily means the Ukrainians quit. They're showing a lot of heart.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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rgag12 said:

I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

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I would think that the type of resistance being discussed would have been prepared in advance for the the occasion of the government having to flee. I've read a few articles over the last month about the resistance training for civilians.

If faced with a superior force, I would want to splinter into platoon sized elements, decentralize command, and harass soft targets at will. Bleed them dry.

GarryowenAg said:

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If faced with a superior force, I would want to splinter into platoon sized elements, decentralize command, and harass soft targets at will. Bleed them dry.

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Wolverines!!!

Ag8556 said:

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I don't think the Russians are that great with logistics. The farther the Russians are pulled into Ukraine, the easier it will be for irregulars to attack resupply convoys coming in from the north towards Kiev. This is all predicated on the Ukes military not disintegrating.

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Iirc Russians have largely depended on rail head operations for sustainment. But yes, it will depend on the Ukrainians having fortified their cities and other locations to draw it out to that point.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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rgag12 said:

I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

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dc509 said:

I would think that the type of resistance being discussed would have been prepared in advance for the the occasion of the government having to flee. I've read a few articles over the last month about the resistance training for civilians.

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Exactly. Plus, the Ukrainian government has a formal plan for irregular resistance. Fighting On

GarryowenAg said:

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If faced with a superior force, I would want to splinter into platoon sized elements, decentralize command, and harass soft targets at will. Bleed them dry.

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A dug in and dedicated and inspired paramilitary force led by a strong core of trained soldiers is probably the worst case scenario for Russia. House to house sucks all the ass and the aggressor literally has all of the downsides possible. Such fighting has broken nations in the past. Stalingrad could be the perfect analogy here of what could happen if the Ukes go all in.

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nortex97 said:

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Not keeping up with this thread but interesting if true. I'd think Kiev is a critical city to hold if Ukraine does in fact mount a protracted defense.

Click to load Tweet

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jabberwalkie09 said:

If true, it looks like the Ukrainians -dare I say- have put up a fight and limited the spread of Russians.

I think someone was telling me earlier that there was no fight in the Ukrainians, Russians were spreading like wildfire, and the country would fall in short order.

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LMCane said:

US officials claiming Kyiv will fall in another 70 hours

Kyiv Falls

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74OA said:

Kiev is an urban sprawl of 3M people. If the Ukrainians want, they can bloody the Russians in street fighting for a long time, despite being encircled.

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rgag12 said:

I'm not a warfare expert, but if the Russians were in a position to encircle the city, the government would probably flee. Once the government flees, you'd think the organization of significant resistance would be hard, and the morale of the people would take a hit.

Also it wouldn't be strategically imperative for the Russians to take the city center. They could lay siege and wait for most, if not all resistance to crumble.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

At that theoretical point, how would the current government flee?

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rgag12 said:

At a certain point before the enemy reaches you, you know your forces are retreating and the enemy is about to encircle you. The government at that point, if they chose, would flee probably by air or by road to the west.

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Air is not really an option, road last I saw still had lines at the border, and rail was recommended. If senior government officials tried to make a run for it, I would wager there are already personnel in place to report their movements. Maybe even try to get to actually get to them.

If they're captured, they're probably going to be imprisoned maybe killed. At this point the only real option is to fight imo.

Given how mechanized the Russian army is, I expected Russia to have at least a third of the country east of Kiev by now, though it is a sizable country, about the area of Texas.

Not sure if they are slowed by the Ukrainian army or by their own equipment.

Central Committee said:

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Given how mechanized the Russian army is, I expected Russia to have at least a third of the country east of Kiev by now, though it is a sizable country, about the area of Texas.

Not sure if they are slowed by the Ukrainian army or by their own equipment.

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Why not both?

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will25u said:

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So if it is true that the Russian military is undisciplined enough to fight, and are easily routed....

That is a bad look.

Seeing multiple reports of Russian military just leaving equipment and running. Ouch.

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jabberwalkie09 said:

Russia has forced conscription. With Russia's military adventures in more recent years, I'm not terribly surprised. I don't think there's as much belief in Russia as there was in "the cause" in the USSR.

Just my 2 cents.

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I was in the military, so to my US military eye, it is a Stark difference.

I have seen in great detail the zeal of the American war fighter. And the zeal that they go with to protect their fellow soldier, and even Afghans or Iraqi civilians.

Maybe that is what you get when you can script a whole bunch of young civilian populace into the military for Russia.

NEW: Russia has assembled troops, armor, artillery, and more than 50 heavy equipment transporters a training area in Brest, near the Polish border.

Russia has also added more equipment at a nearby railyard in Belarus.

📷:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/H2SDzWQDPP

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 24, 2022

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Been dealing with work today, have only scanned this thread....Saw the Ukes recaptured the Airport.

What's up with the air war have the Russkies achieved Air Superiority? Pretty sure the Ukes Aerospace program is no lightweight.

Should blow it all up in self defense. Anytime Russia puts military equipment near your border it's just a matter of time...

Разбитые российские МТ-ЛБ и ЗРК "Тор" на выезде из Крыма, 24/02/22 https://t.co/VldiCbFdJn pic.twitter.com/J09g3HOAFR

— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) February 24, 2022

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VitruvianAg said:

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Been dealing with work today, have only scanned this thread....Saw the Ukes recaptured the Airport.

What's up with the air war have the Russkies achieved Air Superiority? Pretty sure the Ukes Aerospace program is no lightweight.

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Last I saw, Ukrainian Air Force bases were hit very early on. Before all this kicked off, they had some planes but I think they were having a difficult time maintaining them.

The Ukrainians have absorbed the initial shock of invasion day. They have acquitted themselves well and inflicted a toll on the invader.

The most important thing now is not the volume or even quality of their engagements with the Russians, it is to keep an army in the field. If they can keep a regular Ukrainian force in the field, then ANY successful counterattack, no matter how militarily insignificant, will be electrifying to the whole world and provide a jolt to morale for the irregular fighters as that fight begins to materialize. The West can help the Ukrainians by amplifying the signal of any military success, regardless of significance. The will to fight is the center of gravity. The heroic defenders in the Ukrainian armed forces have given their country a fighting chance so far, at great cost to themselves.

Taking an even more macro perspective, even if the Ukrainian soldiers all go down swinging and were to lose this fight, their heroism will provide a foundation for the Ukrainian national identity to reassert itself in the future based on the deeds of their martyrs, e.g. the Irish rebellion of 1798 (to name one) .. they didn't win in their own day, but their descendants were still singing songs about them when they finally evicted the brits over a century later.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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Should blow it all up in self defense. Anytime Russia puts military equipment near your border it's just a matter of time...

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We just don't have the human assets in theater to risk that. I did hear that 3ID is being mobilized. If this went hot, the burden of troops support would be on US. Haven't checked to confirm.

Also have heard that Russians are donning Ukrainian military uniforms and engaging in sabotage operations.

Rossticus said:

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NEW: Russia has assembled troops, armor, artillery, and more than 50 heavy equipment transporters a training area in Brest, near the Polish border.

Russia has also added more equipment at a nearby railyard in Belarus.

📷:@Maxar pic.twitter.com/H2SDzWQDPP

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 24, 2022

Loading full tweet…

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Every CAS pilot is probably looking at that and salivating.

Yep. It's a happy thought if we could get away with it.

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Rossticus said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

Every CAS pilot is probably looking at that and salivating.

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No f'n thanks. I've seen plenty of their air defense.

Good point just brought up. What happens if Russia gets bogged down and resorts to use of chemical weapons? Is that a tipping point or do we allow it?

Jayhawk said:

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The Ukrainians have absorbed the initial shock of invasion day. They have acquitted themselves well and inflicted a toll on the invader.

The most important thing now is not the volume or even quality of their engagements with the Russians, it is to keep an army in the field. If they can keep a regular Ukrainian force in the field, then ANY successful counterattack, no matter how militarily insignificant, will be electrifying to the whole world and provide a jolt to morale for the irregular fighters as that fight begins to materialize. The West can help the Ukrainians by amplifying the signal of any military success, regardless of significance. The will to fight is the center of gravity. The heroic defenders in the Ukrainian armed forces have given their country a fighting chance so far, at great cost to themselves.

Taking an even more macro perspective, even if the Ukrainian soldiers all go down swinging and were to lose this fight, their heroism will provide a foundation for the Ukrainian national identity to reassert itself in the future based on the deeds of their martyrs, e.g. the Irish rebellion of 1798 (to name one) .. they didn't win in their own day, but their descendants were still singing songs about them when they finally evicted the brits over a century later.

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…..and inspire the populace to keep fighting. RESIST

Syria didn't give a **** about Obama's threat