Smart as a fox!
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 3 hrs ago by 74OA
Wait. I'm confused. Russian or Ukrainian trains?Mr. Business said:The plot thickens: Parts of this train are clearly from a armored train called "Baikal" and recently @AdamSculthorpe managed to intercept a callsign "Baikal" on Russian HF. The train arrived soon after. I doubt it's a coincidence. 1/#Ukraine #Melitopol #UkraineRussianWar https://t.co/daw5QXujCZ
— EnclaveOfficer 🇺🇦 (@OfficerEnclave) March 7, 2022
Assuming they are Russian. There is a Russian flag on one.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.
Thread https://t.co/sYuUIBah9I
— The Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) March 7, 2022
Russian. I confess I'm confused as well the significance. However if it's an armored Russian train you need to look out for brunettes being Onatop of things.
Jokes aside any one know the significance?
Jokes aside any one know the significance?
Rosstafari said:Thread https://t.co/sYuUIBah9I
— The Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) March 7, 2022
If true this is pretty hilarious
aezmvp said:
Russian. I confess I'm confused as well the significance. However if it's an armored Russian train you need to look out for brunettes being Onatop of things.
Jokes aside any one know the significance?
They like to use them to transport mobile ICBMs. I think it's able to move at least a couple dozen if not more in one go. Nuclear posturing if I had to venture a guess.
This Italian Tanker has been on station over Romania over the last several days.
Also a USAF tanker was over same area earlier in the day...
Also a USAF tanker was over same area earlier in the day...
Send in a nazi to root out the naziesRosstafari said:Thread https://t.co/sYuUIBah9I
— The Dan Kaszeta 🇺🇦 (@DanKaszeta) March 7, 2022
Pretty powerful.
PART 2Part 2/3: "I decided to record my first ever video message because my compatriots ... are about to participate in bad deeds." pic.twitter.com/pEngRbSV2s
— Biggsy 🇺🇦 #ЯзаУкраїну #YAzaUkrayinu (@dbiggs0001) March 7, 2022
Part 3/3: "Any thinking person should understand at least three things." pic.twitter.com/0S9YBoxEDq
— Biggsy 🇺🇦 #ЯзаУкраїну #YAzaUkrayinu (@dbiggs0001) March 7, 2022
Assuming 100 ft/vehicle footprint ... that's a convoy 17 miles long.JFABNRGR said:
I wish I would have kept up with daily equipment loss changes https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html. Today at 8AM CST it was 870 pieces of russian equipment lost now its 902.
We wouldn't have to be willing to engage Russia unprovoked for those assets to have value. As in chess, developing a bishop early is nice because it's presence as a 'scare crow' while not attacking, still has strategic value. Just having the pieces in place to threaten Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg could prevent the Russians from threatening Poland or other NATO countries and force them to keep a sizable reserve force in place.mike0305 said:Unless you are willing to pull the trigger they are no better than statues or scarecrows.lb3 said:
We know that NATO won't enact a no fly zone over Ukraine, but couldn't NATO accomplish basically the same goal by repositioning a few mechanized units, an A10 squadron, and a Patriot battery to Lithuania as well as a few squadrons each of F22s in Germany and F35s in Northern Poland?
To use a chess analogy, if we position our bishop threatening St. Petersburg would we not be forcing Russia to hold their top fixed wings and Army Equipment near St. Petersburg and away from the Ukranian battle?
Hopefully we are positioned to detect/shoot down something particularly nasty, but that's better answered by the warhawks here.
And as we've seen, weakness invite aggression. Russia would be stupid to see their military destroyed in a win at all costs war while stronger adversaries are at the gates able to pick their bones clean. Not to mention the political opportunists within their own country who would be positioned to exploit natural divisions.
Mr. Business said:The Battle of Kyiv as of March 7.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022
As a witness, I can confirm the map’s accuracy.
As you can see, Russians are not even close to encircling Kyiv. And I don’t understand what are they counting on, given their severe casualties and extremely slow movement. pic.twitter.com/KOBW4owBAN
This guy has been nails
True dat. Read the quoted tweet thread if you want some good insight to why Russian communications are terrible.
The loss of a 2nd Russian general is telling, but the lack of operational security (OPSEC) & the incompetence in planning command, control & communication (C3) is staggering.
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 8, 2022
As a smart mentor once told me: “if you can’t talk on the battlefield, you’re just camping.” https://t.co/ShG28tTqCY
Ukraine/Russia: In the northwest a Russian resupply unit in a holding area en-route to Hostomel was also attacked by Ukrainian forces, this one near the river in Kozarovychi. Several vehicles destroyed.
— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 8, 2022
We do have units in the Baltics and have had several over the last six monthslb3 said:
We know that NATO won't enact a no fly zone over Ukraine, but couldn't NATO accomplish basically the same goal by repositioning a few mechanized units, an A10 squadron, and a Patriot battery to Lithuania as well as a few squadrons each of F22s in Germany and F35s in Northern Poland?
To use a chess analogy, if we position our bishop threatening St. Petersburg would we not be forcing Russia to hold their top fixed wings and Army Equipment near St. Petersburg and away from the Ukranian battle?
https://sofrep.com/news/us-troops-f-35s-and-apaches-sent-to-the-baltics-to-counter-russian-army/
Ukraine defense/aid update:
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022
- US is still working out details of how to get MiG’s from Poland to Ukraine, and backfill what the Poles give
- Ukraine is also seeking S300 missiles – Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, & Slovakia have inventory they can give, discussions in the works.
Overall, same ongoing discussion on these topics as we’ve heard over the last few days – US/allies wrestling with questions of whether providing this kind of lethal aid will somehow be seen by Russia as an escalation ...
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022
Separately, some members of congress are beginning to advocate for a non-kinetic no-fly zone – something to the effect of using electromagnetic pulse, sonar, and cyber to keep Russian jets on the ground so they can never take off. Unclear how much support this will end up getting
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022
I'm not sure five battalions can overtake a city with at least 30,000 guns. Scattered, dug in, with comms, and ready to fight
I see where you're going and want us to be ready as well, but currently would say Ukraine and Russia are actively in the game, US would just be setting up pieces on the side of the board. But we along with the west are already giving GM level advice, supplying Ukraine more pieces and getting in Russia's head. Sorry if scarecrow sounded harsh, didnt mean to be an ass.lb3 said:We wouldn't have to be willing to engage Russia unprovoked for those assets to have value. As in chess, developing a bishop early is nice because it's presence as a 'scare crow' while not attacking, still has strategic value. Just having the pieces in place to threaten Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg could prevent the Russians from threatening Poland or other NATO countries and force them to keep a sizable reserve force in place.mike0305 said:Unless you are willing to pull the trigger they are no better than statues or scarecrows.lb3 said:
We know that NATO won't enact a no fly zone over Ukraine, but couldn't NATO accomplish basically the same goal by repositioning a few mechanized units, an A10 squadron, and a Patriot battery to Lithuania as well as a few squadrons each of F22s in Germany and F35s in Northern Poland?
To use a chess analogy, if we position our bishop threatening St. Petersburg would we not be forcing Russia to hold their top fixed wings and Army Equipment near St. Petersburg and away from the Ukranian battle?
Hopefully we are positioned to detect/shoot down something particularly nasty, but that's better answered by the warhawks here.
And as we've seen, weakness invite aggression. Russia would be stupid to see their military destroyed in a win at all costs war while stronger adversaries are at the gates able to pick their bones clean. Not to mention the political opportunists within their own country who would be positioned to exploit natural divisions.
Alrighty folks, it is time for another trip in the realm of "Mud and Truck Maintenance."
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 7, 2022
This thread 🧵 is going to excerpt from the single most important article on Russian Army Logistics in the latest invasion of Ukraine by ALEX VERSHININ.
1/https://t.co/3zVXKcou3N
Quote:
"It is possible to calculate how far trucks can operate using simple beer math. Assuming the existing road network can support 45 mph speed...
...a single truck can make three trips a day at up to a 45-mile range: One hours to load, one hour to drive to the supported unit, one hours to unload, and another hour to return to base. Repeating this cycle three times equals 12 hours total.
The rest of the day is dedicated to truck maintenance, meals, refueling, weapons cleaning, and sleeping. Increase the distance to 90 miles, and the truck can make two trips daily.
At 180 miles, the same truck is down to one trip a day. These assumptions won't work in rough terrain or where there is limited/damaged infrastructure.
If an army has just enough trucks to sustain itself at a 45-mile distance, then at 90 miles, the throughput will be 33 percent lower. At 180 miles, it will be down by 66 percent."
And from towards the end of the article:
"The Russian army will be hard-pressed to conduct a ground offensive of more than 90 miles beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union without a logistics pause. For NATO, it means it can worry less about a major Russian invasion of the Baltic states or Poland and a greater focus on exploiting Russian logistic challenges by drawing Russian forces further away from their supply depots and targeting chokepoints in the Russian logistic infrastructure and logistic force in general."
So, what does that beer math mean?
The Ukrainians are using the late Brigadier Richard Simpkin's "Hammer & anvil" tactics with artillery, airpower & irregulars to throttle Russian supply lines.
US defense analysts Stephan Blank and Phillip Karber were sent to Ukraine dozens of times by the Potomac foundation lecturing on NATO tactics to stop a Russian mechanized invasion. I posted links to several of Karber's Donbas lectures here on Twitter.
Karber & Blank thought their lectures fell on deaf ears.
In hindsight, that was intentional disinformation on the Ukrainians part to make the Russians think they were more corrupt than they really were. (It worked!)
The Ukrainian military took those lectures to heart and added their own twist via repeated replays of Ukrainian VDV Gen. Zabrodskiy's 2014, deep 400 km, Donbas raid, but had kept it very close to their chests until the Russian invasion.
Retired 101st Airborne Division sergeant Paul Grey from Tyler, Texas, who completed multiple tours of Iraq, is training Ukrainian resistance fighters.
https://www.ketk.com/news/local-news/army-veteran-from-tyler-training-ukrainian-civilians-for-battle/Quote:
Grey, from Tyler, 100 miles east of Dallas, moved to Ukraine a year ago to open a gym in Kyiv, and is now training troops to defend the country.
He was able to take the last train to leave Kyiv to go to Lviv in western Ukraine. He has joined an organization that is training Ukrainians to fight. Paul is at an undisclosed location doing training exercises with the group he volunteers with.
'I'm fighting to defend my home, and their home here,' he said.
"This is their 1776. This is their fight of their generation and they're not going to let this moment pass without fighting into the end, and it's just extremely inspiring to see this," says Gray. "A lot of young Ukrainians, they are the first generation of independence in their country. Something their families and people have wanted for centuries. So it's not something they are obligated to do, but they want to do it."
Agree. At full strength, each BTG has about 600-800men … 200 infantry, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.Ag In Ok said:
I'm not sure five battalions can overtake a city with at least 30,000 guns. Scattered, dug in, with comms, and ready to fight
Tin foil hat time
Not just 5 battalions. Special forces, Chechens, Wagner, and 5 Russian BTGs are the groups. I don't know each group's size, but I would agree they need more.
I really hope the Chechens and Wagners get taken out.
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.-Thomas Paine
lb3 said:
We know that NATO won't enact a no fly zone over Ukraine, but couldn't NATO accomplish basically the same goal by repositioning a few mechanized units, an A10 squadron, and a Patriot battery to Lithuania as well as a few squadrons each of F22s in Germany and F35s in Northern Poland?
To use a chess analogy, if we position our bishop threatening St. Petersburg would we not be forcing Russia to hold their top fixed wings and Army Equipment near St. Petersburg and away from the Ukranian battle?
No. That only works if it's a serious threat.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 8, 2022
⚡️Moscow's envoy to the U.N. Vasily Nebenzya says Russia will hold a ceasefire and open humanitarian corridors on Mar. 8.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
The ceasefire will take place at 10 a.m. Moscow time and permit the evacuation of citizens from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, & Mariupol, Nebenzya said.
What, are they just planning to Leeroy Jenkins it into Kyiv? I'm no expert, and that's what it sounds like.TRM said:Ukraine/Russia: Reports 5 Russian BTGs, SOF, PMCs and Kadyrovites are finalising plans for an assault on Kyiv. There has been more movement in the east the last 48hrs, but little gains in actual control of areas. The Russians still have nowhere near any outer city cordon. https://t.co/DhSdGdCYrC
— The Cavell Group (@TCG_CrisisRisks) March 8, 2022
I guess it could work if they manage to get a foothold and create enough chaos for defenders to get distracted enough for more forces to get in, but I don't know how well that would work. If I recall correctly, Russia's already seen the inside of Kyiv this war and got immediately pushed back out, right?
Just like the last ones where you killed evacuating civilians? **** you, Russia.JobSecurity said:⚡️Moscow's envoy to the U.N. Vasily Nebenzya says Russia will hold a ceasefire and open humanitarian corridors on Mar. 8.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
The ceasefire will take place at 10 a.m. Moscow time and permit the evacuation of citizens from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, & Mariupol, Nebenzya said.
Seabreeze said:
Tin foil hat time
No Compton effect if not triggered in the atmosphere. Localized emp can be contained
https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html
From Reuters.
This is what Russia SAYS it wants. I don't know if it's true or not, but IF true, seems like they should get to negotiating. Those two "breakaway" republics have apparently wanted to join Russia for some time. Crimea was already gone. Neutrality?? If that means "no NATO membership", well, fair or not, it could be seen why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join.
Again, who knows if Russia is being honest??
From Reuters.
This is what Russia SAYS it wants. I don't know if it's true or not, but IF true, seems like they should get to negotiating. Those two "breakaway" republics have apparently wanted to join Russia for some time. Crimea was already gone. Neutrality?? If that means "no NATO membership", well, fair or not, it could be seen why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join.
Again, who knows if Russia is being honest??
Putin is a murdering, cold blooded snake.Waffledynamics said:Just like the last ones where you killed evacuating civilians? **** you, Russia.JobSecurity said:⚡️Moscow's envoy to the U.N. Vasily Nebenzya says Russia will hold a ceasefire and open humanitarian corridors on Mar. 8.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
The ceasefire will take place at 10 a.m. Moscow time and permit the evacuation of citizens from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, & Mariupol, Nebenzya said.
Putin is weak. He knows that.fburgtx said:
https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html
From Reuters.
This is what Russia SAYS it wants. I don't know if it's true or not, but IF true, seems like they should get to negotiating. Those two "breakaway" republics have apparently wanted to join Russia for some time. Crimea was already gone. Neutrality?? If that means "no NATO membership", well, fair or not, it could be seen why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join.
Again, who knows if Russia is being honest??
Tell him Nuts.
fburgtx said:
https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-says-russian-military-action-115703035.html
From Reuters.
This is what Russia SAYS it wants. I don't know if it's true or not, but IF true, seems like they should get to negotiating. Those two "breakaway" republics have apparently wanted to join Russia for some time. Crimea was already gone. Neutrality?? If that means "no NATO membership", well, fair or not, it could be seen why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join.
Again, who knows if Russia is being honest??
This was discussed at length earlier today. There is also general agreement that in addition to what you posted, the Russian want to install a Russian backed leader to lead Ukraine but retain zelensky as a figurehead.
It's a no go from the start and Russia is hardly in the position to demand anything for the time being.
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